Gradey Dick's Evolution From Shooter To Scorer | Youth Movement NBA Sophomore Rank
Gradey Dick's evolution for the Toronto Raptors from shooter into scorer has added a new offensive element to the team's future. PLUS: more on Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, and other sophomores.
We’re back talking about the NBA sophomores this time for Youth Movement!
There are certainly some headlines already from the previous 2023 draft class, the largest (figuratively and literally) being Victor Wembanyama.
Then there’s the two-way play of Bilal Coulibaly that has helped spark some excitement for the Washington Wizards fanbase.
I can go on and on with more names that I’ll touch on both down below and at length in future features, but there’s one player who has grabbed my attention the most when talking about NBA sophomores.
What Gradey Dick is doing for the Toronto Raptors has somehow gone under the radar apart from the NBA junkies who live, bleed, and breathe professional basketball.
There’s plenty to dig into regarding Gradey’s game, but I also wanted to lay out my plans here for future bulk columns across all three of the NBA rookie, sophomore, and junior classes.
Rookies certainly get plenty of spotlight when it comes to award conversations because there is, in fact, a Rookie of the Year Award coupled with All-Rookie Team selections.
While I’m all for making a fuss over first year talents getting their share of the spotlight in the league, I also feel it’s time the other developing players across the league get similar recognition (outside of the tumultuous voting cycle when it comes to the Most Improved Player Award).
So for No Ceilings, I’m going to be chronicling the best sophomores and juniors for Youth Movement NBA’s Sophomore and Junior Awards!
As we get to the end of the regular season, I’ll be making awards selections for the rookies, sophomores, and juniors, just like I would for the league at large.
This means:
Rookie, Sophomore, and Junior of the Year Awards
All-Rookie, Sophomore, and Junior First and Second Team Selections
Most Improved Rookie (different from ROTY!), Sophomore, and Junior
Defensive Rookie, Sophomore, and Junior of the Year
There’s a lot to come regarding the development of young players in the NBA, but this is a way to have some fun with a larger collection of talent as opposed to just the rookies, while also chronicling the highlights of the given season.
Therefore, my sophomore and junior columns will be structured monthly just like the rookie editions, and by the end of the year, we’ll have some excellent nominees and winners for each award category!
Trust me, those are just the first in a number of surprises I have planned for Youth Movement NBA content, and there’s no better place to publish said pieces than No Ceilings, as simply put, we like to have fun here folks.
Enough jabbering; let’s get into the meat and potatoes of this week’s column!
*All statistics used are as of 11/27/24 and courtesy of Synergy Sports, Basketball-Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Cleaning the Glass*
Gradey Dick’s Offensive Evolution
Going back to the perception of Gradey Dick before the 2023 NBA Draft, there was actually quite a split among consensus that one could argue wouldn’t have been as pronounced had he been in the 2024 class.
Wing shooters are quite important in modern basketball for a multitude of reasons. It’s not just about the fact that a reliable shooter can help put points on the board, but it’s what that player can do for everyone else.
A hallmark of talent evaluation isn’t simply what a player can do for themselves on the floor. Scoring is paramount, of course, because the name of the game is putting the ball in the basket. But points per game without the requisite production and contributions in other areas by itself doesn’t necessarily help a team win games, especially when those “empty calories” as some analysts call them come with turnovers and poor decision-making.
I’ve always defined shooters as different than pure scorers. Both obviously share overlap in that points scored ultimately define the role. But a shooter with legitimate gravity can be just as dangerous as a slashing scorer or isolation bucket-getter.
In fact, one could argue the shooter carries more weight in certain situations because of the spacing and level of attention they command from the defense.
Spot-up shooters certainly add a needed dimension in that they’re the last line on a kickout or swing pass, depending on positioning. At that point, depending on how much time is left on the shot clock, it’s up to that player to either get that puppy up immediately off the catch, make a very quick read to get it to the next guy, or line drive it into the lane to hopefully find that next play or get a look at the rim.
Movement shooters on the other hand put defenses in a completely different bind. When it comes to those who can hit shots on the move, it means defenses have to think beyond just what’s in front of them and react not just with their hands, but keep up with and be able to contest shooters after they relocate.
Easier said than done, as some of the best movement shooters like JJ Redick have run for miles and miles on the floor to tire out defenders and generate easy looks from deep or just inside the arc.
Where I’m getting to with the concept of shooting is it’s not ONLY about the spacing that’s created to set up driving and passing lanes. Shooters, by default, especially those who can get a shot on the move, displace defenders and really put opposing teams in position to have to THINK about their next move or two ahead of what’s in front.
That attention to detail that’s required can confound some of the best team units on that side of the ball, especially when those shooters are playing off of go-to scorers and playmakers.
How can you possibly keep a body on a wing shooter at all times when there’s a power forward on the same team that can barrel through a single defender? Or what about those situations where it’s optimal to peel off and contest a driver or double a big man?
The more shooters one has on the floor, the more difficult it becomes for defenses to cover the appropriate amount of ground and contest shots to help force misses.
But what happens when a wing transforms from not JUST a shooter, but also develops real scoring chops to play off of his own gravity?
That evolution is an incredibly dangerous proposition, and it’s the position where we find Dick’s current game today, taking shape before our very eyes.
Look, Dick was always going to provide value as a shooter. Picture-perfect shot mechanics off the catch, plus size and length to get looks off over other NBA-sized defenders. The selling pitch for Dick to succeed in the league was a fairly simple one to make, as every team can ALWAYS use more shooting for the reasons outlined above.
But when drafting players in the lottery, especially in today’s game, rarely are “specialists” in the discussion for those selections if there isn’t any upside for more.
In the 2024 class, both Jared McCain and Dalton Knecht were passed on because most evaluators tied their value strictly to shooting the basketball and bypassed the potential higher-level outcomes that could take place in their careers. Looking at both players now, albeit early in the regular season, it’s difficult to justify how low both were drafted in relation to what their trajectory looks like after the first month of games.
I’m not making a direct comparison between those two and Dick, as I was skeptical of the higher-end outcomes for Dick as both a movement shooter and more well-rounded scorer.
Gradey wasn’t as fluid of an athlete as I had hoped to see at Kansas. He was a little stiff and upright coming off certain actions, and that also showed itself in how he defended in certain matchups.
But where I underestimated Dick was in his ball-handling ability related to being able to start/stop effectively, as well as how he handles and hunts for contact on drives. Each avenue has allowed his offensive game to blossom in ways that we’ve seen from those other two rookies I mentioned.
When evaluating how Dick’s improved ball handling has impacted his offensive approach, we can see that obviously on tape but also in the numbers in terms of his overall shot distribution.
Last season, when Dick was viewed as a shooter and little else, his shot selection contributed to such a notion in that he attempted more threes than twos on the season. In college, we saw a similar split in terms of threes vs. twos. This year, however, that pendulum has swung in the other direction as Dick is engaging in more diversity of shots inside the arc.
He’s seen an uptick in field goal attempts at the rim out to 10 feet from the basket, but that mid-range area of 10-16 feet has seen his shot attempts nearly double this season compared to last, and he’s shooting about 11 percentage points better on those looks (45.5 FG% compared to 34.4% on shots 10-16 feet).
As you can see from the clips above, Dick is much more comfortable and confident with both his first step, and being able to come to a stop and recognize how he can effectively use the space he’s taken from the defense. Dick has the base, balance, and release on his shot to get it up over defenders—even in those tighter leverage situations.
Last year, if defenses were to run Dick off of his spot, he’d be like a deer in headlights more often than not. That’s been a common criticism of other spot-up shooters who have entered the NBA, like Corey Kispert, but having the ability to at least attack a closeout or step into a mid-range jumper with confidence is a massive weapon for any shooter to have in their back pocket.
The other layer that’s really helped Dick evolve from shooter into scorer is in his willingness to embrace contact on drives and get to the line.
Last year, Gradey attempted a TOTAL of 51 free throws in over 1200 minutes played. Fast forward to this season with the Toronto Raptors, and Dick is up to 68 attempts from the charity stripe already in just 560 minutes played. Overall, that equates to about four attempts a night compared to less than one last season.
That’s a pretty significant jump in trips to the line, and it’s been a welcome addition to Dick’s leap as a scoring option. As a matter of fact, Gradey already has four games this season where he’s attempted six or more three throws in a game. That’s across 17 total outings. Dick had six of those nights in a total of 36 college games back at Kansas. Talk about a complete difference in his approach!
I’ve long said (along with many who are far smarter than I) that free throws are one of the easiest ways to increase one’s scoring average, and an art that’s usually one of the last things for top-shelf scorers to master.
Dick is quite a ways off from matching the free throw rates of tried and true number one offensive options in the league, but this type of jump is incredibly encouraging, to say the least.
There have certainly been some other elements to his game that I’ve noticed, such as some slight improvements in his passing and on-ball defense. But the improvements Dick has made as a scorer have what jumped off the page to me the most, and put him in the conversation for most improved among his sophomore peers.
So how does Dick’s offensive aggressiveness benefit the Raptors both in the short term and long term?
For starters, a team that’s starved for offensive output like Toronto (23rd in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating) will happily take an extra 18 points per game from Dick on decent shooting splits. But in terms of how his spacing, aggression, and gravity have impacted those around him, the Raptors have an offensive rating of 8.5 points better with Dick on the floor (114.8 compared to 106.3).
Extra rim pressure sets up defenses to react to his drives, and opens kickouts for cutters like Scottie Barnes, as well as open jump shot opportunities on a swing to other hot shooters like Ochai Agbaji, who has also had a career start to the season. And when Dick is able to step into shots on the catch, or relocate to keep defenses honest, he’s taking similar attention away to keep the lane open for not only Barnes to take defenders off the bounce but also similar talents who thrive on creating off the bounce like RJ Barrett, Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, and when healthy Immanuel Quickley.
Having a shooter, or multiple shooters on the floor for that matter, is one very important factor in winning NBA games. After all, it’s becoming more and more like solving a math problem in terms of threes attempted and made from one team to the next as far as who actually takes home the victory on any given night.
But the best teams have multiple guards and wings who can not only hit open shots, but put the ball on the deck and make something happen with it on the move. Whether it’s hitting a high number of attempts off screens (48.8% on such looks so far this year), or taking it to the rim with higher frequency, Dick is helping the offensive flow of his team tremendously by even attempting those types of looks even if they don’t always fall for him (49.2% shooting at the rim currently).
I love watching players develop a newfound level of confidence in attacking and taking it to the defense. As long as Dick is continuing to diversify his shot selection, looking for contact, and using the space he’s able to acquire off his initial step to the best of his ability, I have zero doubts he can continue to score in bunches for the Raptors.
No one is picking Toronto to win an NBA championship anytime soon (sorry, Raptors fans). But the bright spots we’ve already seen from the likes of Dick, Barrett, Barnes, Quickley, Agbaji, and even the rookies like Shead and Mogbo, it’s easier to buy into the optimism of this young and feisty team in the Eastern Conference.
NBA Sophomore Rank 1.0
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
There was definitely a point at the start of the season where I would’ve ranked Chet Holmgren at this top spot given the trajectory he was on. But Victor Wembanyama has earned number one in the first Sophomore Rank of the season, even considering Holmgren’s sidelined status.
The San Antonio Spurs sit above .500 and possess the best lineup in the NBA in terms of Net Rating with more than 100 minutes played (Chris Paul-Harrison Barnes-Julian Champagnie-Stephon Castle-Victor Wembanyama).
While lineup data to start the year isn’t the best way to determine rankings and award polling like this, what the Spurs are doing in this construct and how well Wembanyama is playing makes a lot more sense when breaking it down. Last season, Wembanyama didn’t have a lot of reliable veteran spacing and playmaking to make life easier for him on offense. Now with CP3 and Barnes in the fold, along with the emergence of defensive ace Castle plus Devin Vassell coming back, Wembanyama has the pieces in place to support his strengths: finishing plays on offense and putting a lid on the rim/patrolling the paint on defense.
Yes, everyone can point to his shot distribution and how he still attempts a very large number of threes compared to twos overall, but he’s one of the best finishers across the league at the basket while also holding shooting marks of 34.5% from three on over NINE attempts a night and 86.8% from the free-throw line.
Breaking down his performance on an advanced statistical level, he’s above league average in all marks I take into account the most in terms of usage, scoring, rebounding, assist, and defensive playmaking rates which is absolutely insane for a player only in his second season.
Arguably the NBA’s most important defensive player coupled with a level of offensive growth that puts him on pace to take his place among the league’s best, Wembanyama is off to an All-NBA caliber start on top of helping San Antonio take meaningful steps forward toward making the playoffs.
The limits for Wembanyama don’t exist, and I’ll be most curious to monitor his aggressiveness getting to the line in future editions of this column. If he increases his attempts while maintaining a percentage made above 86%, he could very well get to an average mark of 30 points per game given he already sits at 23.6 on the young season.
2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
I’m not ranking another player ahead of Chet Holmgren right now other than Victor Wembanyama, despite an injury having him sidelined for the time being.
Holmgren was that damn good before he went out, looking like one of the most dominant two-way forces in the league. He got off to a better start than Wembanyama before Victor started racking up insane scoring performances to go along with his league-leading rim deterrence.
What’s been known about Holmgren’s game is how excellent of a shot blocker he is as well; his timing, patience, and technique in the paint allow him to get the hands on shots of even the best drivers and low post scorers in the NBA.
But the offensive outbursts that were taking place from Holmgren as he put the ball on the deck more frequently were really driving his value up through the roof as it added the type of dimension the Oklahoma City Thunder expected to see for a full 48 minutes when he and Isaiah Hartenstein were in the rotation together.
The Thunder make a living off full lineups of dribble, pass, and shoot options at all positions. Holmgren possessing that ability in the halfcourt, not just transition, at over 7’ tall, was the icing on the cake to take full advantage of the cutting and off-ball movement of cerebral scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
It’s in play for Holmgren to average more than two blocks per game and hold one of the better on/off rating splits defensively, while also being able to average 20 points a contest on 50/40/80 splits moving forward. Give me that player on my team every day of the week.
3. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Is there a better perimeter defender in the NBA right now than Amen Thompson?
What he’s done teaming up with Tari Eason forming the Terror Twins for the Houston Rockets has taken the league by storm, and put opponents in an absolute crunch to score buckets effectively in the halfcourt (more on THAT tandem coming next week).
But in the context of Thompson, he’s provided a reliable source of defensive playmaking, rebounding, shot creation, AND has upped his three-point percentage by nearly 17 percentage points over last season (albeit small sample size).
Questions around Thompson before the 2023 draft stemmed from just how valuable of a player he could be with the ball in his hands as a primary initiator if he couldn’t shoot. Ime Udoka and the Rockets staff took a lot of those responsibilities out of his hands last year and asked him to play the role of a big on offense. Cut, run the floor, set screens, dunk what you can, and continue to find the open man.
Thompson excelled at those things, while also showing his defensive chops in 22 minutes a game.
This year, he’s getting a slightly larger share of minutes in the rotation, but his impact felt in those minutes blows me away each time I watch. The game completely flips when he’s in the lineup because he can go shut down the other team’s best scorer (he’s done that a bunch this season, ask James Harden what he thought of Amen’s defense), while keeping the offense flowing and offering a release valve in the halfcourt as a driving force and play finisher. Few players can actually stay in front of Thompson when he’s able to catch and rip, and it’s shown in the numbers with Thompson finishing nearly 60% of his twos and 71% of his shots at the rim as a wing.
More confidence from deep, taking an even greater leap forward defensively, with his athleticism and decision-making? Thompson has become one of my favorite players to watch on a nightly basis; had it not been for two absurdly talented 7-footers ahead of him, he would be the top player as it stands in the sophomore class.
4. Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
While the winning future of the Charlotte Hornets in the short term still feels very much up in the air, I have full confidence in Brandon Miller leading that group and being one of the best young wings in the NBA.
Any player who stands at 6’9” and can shoot 37% from three on over NINE attempts a game has my attention, and that’s what Miller is doing while being able to handle, make plays for others, and defend his position.
Miller’s playmaking sometimes gets swept under the rug because of his scoring and shooting outbursts on offense, but he’s continued to impress me in that department, even if his AST/TO splits don’t jump off the stat sheet.
Some of the passes he’s able to make off a live dribble are as timely and important to the flow of Charlotte’s offense as those of the maestro who is LaMelo Ball. Miller isn’t nearly as flashy, especially on hit-aheads and the like in transition, but Miller has quietly operated very well out of pick-and-roll sets for the Hornets and gives Charlotte another capable option next to Ball when games get tight.
I’m not going to pin a lot of the team’s defensive woes on Miller, as there are a number of players who often get caught/lost in rotations which put Miller in a worse position to do his job on that end, but in terms of just guarding his man one-to-one, Miller has also taken steps forward in that area better rounding out his game.
In the NBA, it pays to have shooting all over the floor. But having shooters who can also make live-time decisions on the move AND defend their position is a completely different luxury. Those Paul George pre-draft comparisons for Miller really don’t seem crazy at all at this point. That’s the type of trajectory he’s on as a player.
5. Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks
Fresh off an NBA Finals berth, Dereck Lively II has kept it rolling for the Dallas Mavericks and has even taken his spot back in the starting lineup of late over Daniel Gafford.
With elite finishing, rim protection, and short roll passing, as well as reads made off offensive rebounds, Lively does so much for the Mavericks that could go underappreciated because he’s best categorized in the “rim running” mold of center.
That’s largely true, as Dallas doesn’t ask him to handle the ball and make a ton of decisions on an island at the top of the floor. But how he operates in DHO sets, as a passer in the short roll, and the vision he possesses off offensive rebounds is special for a player of his size. He’s the ideal roll partner for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and he’s been even more assertive in his role this season looking stronger and even more fluid from a decision-making standpoint on both ends of the floor.
The effort and processing are both there for Lively, and he really helps the Mavericks operate at a high level.
I’m continuing to monitor Lively’s progression on defense away from the basket and operating in more switch schemes, as that really unlocks a level of upside we haven’t seen in as many big men as advertised coming out of the draft in recent years. Lively primarily operates as a drop big because of his length and instincts around the rim, but he has the foot speed and coordination/balance to continue to operate in smaller switchy lineups on the perimeter.
6. Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
Bilal Coulibaly has essentially improved this season in nearly every offensive category across the board while still playing lockdown level defense on the best opposing scoring options on a nightly basis.
His overall shot attempts are up and he’s increased his overall efficiency above 50% on field goals. His three-point shooting continues to be a little weak spot, but he’s still maintaining a similar average on slightly more attempts per game AND most importantly, he’s 46.7% on corner threes—which is the most important shot for him beyond the arc as it stands today.
As long as Coulibaly is able to space out to the corners, he stretches the defense for other drivers to operate like Kyle Kuzma and Bub Carrington. It certainly throws teams for a loop when both he and Alex Sarr are in opposite corners providing room for others to operate.
But his ability to take opposing defenders off the bounce and operate inside the arc is only accentuated by his ability to space, and lift from the corner in a handoff to get downhill and attack. He has the burst to separate from defenders, and he’s improved as a decision-maker and operator on the move.
Game by game, Coulibaly has those moments where he looks like he can take reigns over the team’s offense on higher usage, and he’s already had seven games this year scoring 15 or more points for the Washington Wizards.
Coulibaly is one of the best young building blocks in the NBA, and he’s alongside a trio of talented rookies paving the way for a bright future in DC.
7. Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
As I wrote about above in regards to Gradey Dick, I’ve loved watching him develop more scoring chops and embrace the type of player he can become inside the arc.
Improved efficiency at the rim is something to watch as he attempts more shots 10 feet and in, but the lanes he’s been able to take have really helped tilt opposing defenses and keep teams off balance as they’re not expecting Dick to take advantage of hard closeouts and find gaps and other areas of opportunity.
The other area I want to monitor with Dick is on defense, particularly off the ball. He’s been more active on that front this year compared to last year, and he would have moments at Kansas where he could get his hand on the ball and make plays to get the Jayhawks easy offense. Basketball isn’t just about guarding the man in front of you, but how you can react as a unit to what offenses run to bend defenses. So I’ll be watching to see more of those examples from Dick as the season progresses.
8. Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers
Toumani Camara has seen his efficiency take a step back from inside the arc as the season has marched on, but he’s still provided a nice mix of spot-up shooting and ever-important wing defense for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Even with Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan on the roster, Camara stands out to my eye as one of the most impactful players on that side of the ball in Portland. He slides his feet well, is rarely caught off balance and out of place, and plays his tail off, competing for his teammates.
Camara has stuck with the role the Trail Blazers have given him, and he has done his part as a “3-and-D” wing. All of that aside, he’s got to improve as a threat when he gets into the teeth of the defense. His finishing at the basket hasn’t been awful, but he’s shooting a putrid 18% on shots between 3-10 feet per Basketball-Reference. If Camara gets caught in no man’s land as a scorer, those are likely times when he should have a better backup plan to kick out rather than try and force tough looks over opposing bigs, as the touch hasn’t been there from that spot on the floor.
Regardless, Camara remains one of my favorite sophomores to keep track of on a nightly basis as he has a great story coming from Dayton.
9. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Golden State Warriors
Trayce Jackson-Davis’s stats aren’t going to wow you when you look at the box score. But watch Jackson-Davis on a nightly basis for the Golden State Warriors, and it’s clear he’s going to have a rotational impact for a long time with this team.
Maintaining a starting spot at center, Jackson-Davis’ mobility and ground coverage defensively has been impressive as a big man. He’s able to scramble, rotate, and protect the basket against both smaller guards and opposing bigs. He had a great defensive reputation at Indiana, especially later on in his career, but his hands and feet have helped him maintain the spot that he’s in at the NBA level.
Scoring-wise, Jackson-Davis does his damage almost exclusively on cuts, dives, and transition runouts, but his effective finishing around the basket has given the Warriors a sound scoring option on occasions where it’s more prudent to go for two than three. Every team needs a high-level finisher inside the arc to bail out shooters when the looks aren’t falling, and Jackson-Davis has helped bolster that frontcourt along with Draymond Green and Kevon Looney.
When watching Jackson-Davis operate for the Warriors, keep an eye on his playmaking. He’s registered quite a number of games with multiple assists as a handoff operator who can also pass out of the post and even kick the ball ahead on grab-and-go’s in transition.
10. Anthony Black, Orlando Magic
How can you not appreciate Anthony Black when he steps into the lineup for the Orlando Magic?
The do-it-all guard just does whatever he can to help the Magic win games. It’s not always about stuffing the box score with points and assists. Black does all of the little things, from timely cuts, to diving for loose balls, to putting himself in position with proper spacing and lane fills to make sure his team gets the most out of a possession even late in games.
Defensively, he’s capable of guarding multiple positions and has a knack for playing passing lanes and finding advantageous opportunities to get his team out in transition.
None of these things are dominating the highlights, except for when he’s had multiple games where he’s hit big shots down the stretch late in the clock when the ball has swung back around to him.
He isn’t shooting as well from deep so far as he did last season, but he’s really stepped up in clutch moments for Orlando, and showed rapid progression on attempts and makes for the Magic in Summer League. So overall, I’m not concerned with a slow start to his efficiency from beyond the arc.
It’s difficult to project just where Black fits in as a starting point guard given the success of Jalen Suggs, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was brought in to start in between Suggs and Franz Wagner. But some of the Magic’s best lineups by net rating include Mr. Black, as his blend of playmaking, unselfishness, and defensive impact are too valuable to keep on the bench for too long. As his offense continues to develop further, he’s going to keep getting his chances to help win games for a playoff contender.
Honorable Mentions
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
A number of those spots in the rankings are up for grabs to anyone in the Honorable Mentions, but Jaime Jaquez has some work to do as he’s taken a few steps back from where he sat as a rookie this time last year.
As a matter of fact, Jaquez got off to a hot start last season from three and saw his percentages really tail off in multiple months from December onwards.
Looking at where he’s at for the Miami Heat right now, Jaquez is playing fewer minutes, taking and making fewer shots, and finding fewer opportunities to impact wins for a team searching for answers on the wing. I’m a fan of Pelle Larsson’s game, but losing minutes to a rookie probably wasn’t on Jaquez’s bingo card for this season.
Where Jaquez still provides value is he’s a low mistake player. Jaquez sees the floor well, doesn’t commit a bunch of costly turnovers, and can keep his dribble alive to drive or set someone else up. That part of his game hasn’t gone away, even on nights when he’s not making a large number of shots.
But there’s no denying the NBA is a shot-making league, so at some point, Jaquez will need to find his stroke not just from beyond the arc but on pull-up jumpers and runners inside of it as well.
Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder
It hasn’t been a kind year to Cason Wallace from an offensive standpoint, as his shooting has really pulled back in the midst of a sophomore slump for the young guard to start a new year.
That being said, I remain intrigued with Wallace because the coaching staff for the Oklahoma City Thunder entrusted him with a unique defensive role in a small, small-ball lineup while both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein were out.
From guarding on the perimeter to playing the role of pseudo rim protector and big-man defender in tandem with Jalen Williams, Wallace’s defensive versatility was on display the last few weeks and he remains as engaged as ever creating deflections, rotating, hitting the glass, all while keeping turnovers and mistakes down on the other end.
Wallace is rarely caught out of position; he plays like he’s easily coachable, and he adjusts. If the shots fall again for Cason, I’d expect him to make a jump back into the rankings as he’s too cerebral of a player to leave off for too long.
Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
Brandin Podziemski had the big breakout last season for the Golden State Warriors for many to lay claim that he was the “steal” of the 2023 draft.
While that hasn’t quite carried over yet in terms of raw percentages, Podziemski still provides a lot of value when he’s on the floor for the Warriors as someone who can help Stephen Curry in the backcourt handle the ball and make decisions.
A herky-jerky scorer inside the arc with more zip off two feet than given credit for, Podziemski plays at his own pace and uses underrated craft, strength, and balance to catch guys off guard with footwork and touch.
As a shooter, Podziemski is in a slump much like Cason Wallace only shooting 19% from three. That’s not going to get it done long term, and it’s likely affected his confidence as a finisher as well.
But every night, Podz plays bigger than he is on the glass and in the lane and helps too facilitate more playmaking in a motion-centric offense.
I still remain high on the young guard and can afford some time for those going through early offensive slumps.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
There are some nights where Scoot Henderson looks like the best guard on the floor, between his ability to whip laser passes to opposite sides of the floor, score in pick-and-roll, and even body up opposing guards on defense.
On other nights, the ugly turnovers, decision-making, and tough shooting splits rear their heads in a direction much opposite to what I laid out above.
Which player is the real Scoot Henderson? Because I’m struggling as an evaluator to figure that out for myself. I was as high as anyone on Henderson before the 2023 draft, and have seen some wicked highs to make me want to keep my share of stock as he moves through a second campaign. I’m also well aware of how difficult it is for young guards to transition to the NBA level.
But at some point, things have to start pointing in the right direction for Henderson consistently, not just on an every other night basis.
It was pretty clear the starting backcourt once Shaedon Sharpe was healthy for the Trail Blazers would be Sharpe along with Anfernee Simons, and Scoot would come off the bench. Is it the end of the world if a lottery pick is coming off the bench for an NBA team? No, but Portland also hasn’t won its fair share of games to give me optimism in that role for him.
The Trail Blazers are still figuring out the infrastructure of the team. Which players will be around long term, and which pieces best fit together?
To Henderson’s credit, I’ve already seen some nice examples of chemistry between him and Donovan Clingan that give me hope they become a strong pick-and-roll tandem moving forward.
I just want to see Henderson put it together more frequently than he is now. I still remain a larger stockholder than my skepticism would indicate, as it’s hard to give up on players not even a full two or three years into their careers. I’m just treading a little more carefully nowadays.
Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
Out of each of the players in the Honorable Mention category, I was very close to giving Keyonte George that last spot in the rankings ahead of one of Trayce Jackson-Davis or Anthony Black.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he ends up in one of those spots in the next edition of the column. It’s taken him a bit, but he’s come back around with a few standout performances offensively to help the Utah Jazz pick up a few wins over the last week and a half.
In four of the Jazz’s last six games, George has scored 18 or more points and is shooting 45% from the floor. The three-point shooting has been a little more up-and-down over that stretch, but we know George can light it up from distance as he’s still close to 38% from deep on the season.
Where I found confidence in George’s game last year was in how he operated as a pull-up scorer inside the arc. George can stop on a dime, rise, and fire with the best of them. He doesn’t possess an advanced handle, but George knows how to get to his spots and take space from defenses to knock down mid-range looks.
Seeing George bounce back in that regard, currently rating in the 77th percentile league-wide on dribble jumpers per Synergy Sports, is great to see and instills some confidence.
I can’t ignore the horrid start to this year from George and the Jazz, though, which is why I ultimately didn’t get him ranked this time around. But George has had to adjust last year and even into this season playing the point guard full time and it’s difficult to do for any professional (ask Scoot Henderson).
So showing George some grace, he’s been much more effective of late. Where he still needs to take the biggest step forward is in limiting errant passes and continuing to develop vision on the move to find open teammates. I’m not going to hold raw assist-to-turnover splits against him because the Jazz have been very poor shooting this season, and you have to knock down shots to get the assist. But still something I’m continuing to monitor from the young guard.
Thank-you for the long and excellent analysis of the evolution of Gradey Dick. It’s not just nerds who know about. Any Raptors fan is also in love with him (and Ochai Agbaji, his Kansas alum - any minute now they’re going to arrive at the arena in matching red spangled blazers).
Within the context of the discussion about the importance of Toronto tanking or learning to win, about 6 days ago, I argued that draft position outside of the top 3 or 4 is not really important, citing Gradey as having outperformed about 6 of the people taken ahead of him. You have him ranked 7th, versus his 13th position in the draft.
Another consideration not highlighted in your analysis is the training rookies get in their organizations. Darko said Gradey Dick had the physique of a 16 year old when he first arrived and so an extensive programme of physical development, went along with a new mental approach to becoming more than a spot-up shooter. Trayce Jackson-Davis has also clearly benefited from superior developent in the GSW organization.