Houston Rockets 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview

The No Ceilings crew continues their Draft Lottery series, featuring the Houston Rockets.

Maxwell: There are a few different ways you could look at last season for the Rockets. On one hand, they finished 11th in the West and missed the play in while failing to achieve a winning record. On the other hand, though, there’s real reason for excitement. They improved their win total from 22 to 41. Their splashy veteran additions of Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks helped to stabilize the lineup and get us a clearer look at their young prospects. Alperen Sengun took a big step forward, finishing third in the Most Improved Player voting. Jalen Green had a strong closing stretch, revitalizing optimism about his future upside. Plus, you’ve still got a slew of exciting prospects in Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason. All four of those guys have excellent complementary traits and awesome size, even if they don’t reach their most optimal outcomes. And they still might reach their optimal outcomes!

The Rockets will have the third pick on draft night. Albert, I want to start by positing you some questions. What would your philosophy be with this pick? Do you want to try to find another star? Or are you buying into the team’s existing core and trying to find someone who slots in more neatly? Also, would you consider trading the pick, and if so, what kind of target would you have in mind?

Albert: This is a bit of a cop-out answer, but I’d be open to it all. I couldn’t agree with you more about the team’s growth last season and the arsenal of young players. The only thing is, as positive as last season was, they’re still a long way from competing for any titles. I think this point in any team’s development is insanely crucial. Right when you think you’re at the precipice of being awesome, there are savvy moves to be made that could take you from potentially breaking out to actually breaking out. The only thing about a potential trade for a veteran is that I don’t know who the Rockets would be interested in who would fit the timeline of this roster. 

If it were up to me, I’d trust my board and go with who I think would be the best pick for the team’s timeline. Even if I were looking to make a trade, I’d wait until the trade deadline and give our young guys more time to develop. It’s important to note that this is only year two of Ime Udoka’s regime as head coach. What this team looks like under his leadership in year two could be really exciting. With veterans like Reggie Bullock, Boban Marjanovic, and Aaron Holiday coming off the books this offseason, you could easily bring them back or look elsewhere to add more veteran leadership to the team. I don’t think it’s 100% necessary for them to package a group of their young guys and picks for a veteran right this very second. I wouldn’t mind the idea of them looking at some fringe veterans and then re-evaluating things at a later time. 

I guess my overall philosophy entering this draft would be to hit a single or double and not swing for the fences. As enticing as it can be to pursue a big name, the Rockets have done a good job of building a young roster with exciting pieces. It doesn’t make sense for them to go out and spend a ton of resources on a veteran just yet. With that being said, there will be some really intriguing options available for the Rockets if they sit at three. Many believe Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher will be gone by the third pick, but it’s safer to believe there are no real locks or guarantees in a draft like this. Let’s say things go how we mocked things in our latest Mock Draft, and Sarr and Donovan Clingan were the first two picks; what would your board look like for the Rockets, Maxwell? 

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Maxwell: Regardless of how the Sarr/Clingan/Risacher thing plays out, there’s one guy at the top of my board for the Houston Rockets, and that’s Reed Sheppard. He shot a ridiculous 52.1% from deep on steady volume this past year. He’s got logo range whether he’s pulling up or spotting up. His outlier shooting performance, paired with the degree of difficulty on his shots, leads me to believe that he may actually have significantly more upside than he gets credit for. I also love his passing feel. Whether it’s a transition dime, a complex cross-court sling, or a hot potato .5 pass, he’s accurate and a step ahead of the game. 

We’ve seen small guards struggle in recent years, but I don’t think Reed is going to be one of them. The offensive stuff would probably be enough on its own. But from a frame standpoint, I like him more than others. Yes, he’s got a short wingspan, but at 181.6 pounds right now, he’s not a total toothpick. His defensive production was outrageous, too. His 4.6 STL% and 2.5 BLK% are both elite indicators. He’s exceptionally quick with his hands and reads passing lanes well. Some people question whether or not the blocks can be scaled up, but if nothing else, it shows that he’s going to be a cut above other small guards when it comes to contests. 

I think even with a lower-end outcome, Sheppard is going to be a caretaker point guard with deep shooting range who can defend really well within a team concept. Plus, he fits exceptionally well with everyone on this team. He can space the floor for Sengun and Thompson, thriving off the ball and occasionally taking advantage of second-side opportunities. He can help cover up some of the deficiencies of their weaker defenders. They have enough depth that even if it takes him a little while to settle in, it won’t be the end of the world. If I go with Clingan here, I’m not sure that I’m maximizing either him or Sengun. If I go with Risacher, I’m only further diminishing the minutes I want to distribute among my talented wing group. 

I’d love to throw another name at you, but honestly, I’m taking a monogamist approach here. I only have eyes for one prospect at #3, and that’s Reed Sheppard. Albert, what do you think? Am I getting too carried away here? Who else should I be considering, in your book?

Albert: Short answer: I think you’re right. Reed Sheppard is a freak, and I’m pumped that you brought him up because he’s such an outlier as a shooting prospect that it’s hard to wrap our minds around the season he just had for Kentucky. He did things in college as a shooter that we haven’t seen in decades. As ESPN’s Jonathan Givony mentioned in a tweet this week, if Sheppard is taken in the first round, he’d be the first collegiate first-rounder to shoot over 50% from three since Glen Rice when he did it for the Michigan Wolverines. Glen Rice is one of my favorite players of all time, but that was ancient history. 

The concerns with Sheppard are clear and also not that problematic. He didn’t measure in at 6’8” at the combine; we’ve always known he’s a small guard. For what Sheppard lacks in size, he makes up with athletic ability, basketball IQ, and instincts. I also don’t think it’s fair to say he can’t create with the ball in his hands. Sheppard, unlike some other guards in his class, actually has a crossover that he can reliably use to create space for himself off the dribble. He also has good vision and will be a better playmaker than he was able to showcase in college. It’s important to remember that he came off the bench and played with guys like Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, and DJ Wagner. With all those guys seeing heavy usage, it only made sense for Reed to play more of an off-ball role next to them. I also love everything you said about his defensive playmaking. Although his size creates some limitations, his awareness will be able to cover a lot. I’m with you; if Sheppard is on the board, he’d be a homerun pick and would be a great replacement for a guy like Aaron Holiday and could even be viewed as the heir apparent to FVV’s spot. 

The only name that I think we should at least have a discussion about is Clingan. I like what you said about the maximization of Clingan and Sengun on the same roster. This isn’t even me arguing for Clingan to be the pick, but I think we should at least entertain the thought. Coming into this past season, Clingan had some real injury concerns. He had a foot sprain in September of last year and had another injury to the tendon in his right foot back in December. Even if he is healthy now, you can’t help but wonder if injuries might always be a part of the equation with Clingan. With that in mind, it’s probably a stretch to imagine Clingan coming in, being a starting center, and playing major minutes for any team in the league. With Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams returning from injury, wouldn’t it be awesome to have Clingan coming off the bench for Sengun, getting acclimated to the league and the longer schedule?

Clingan and Sengun seem to be working on their outside shooting as well. Would it be crazy to envision them playing minutes together against teams like the Timberwolves or Knicks, who play with multiple bigs on the floor at once? Imagine them playing the Nuggets, and they have Sengun, Clingan, and Adams to throw at Jokic. I understand that it sounds crazy to spend a Top 3 pick on a guy who might be your third center. But I also know that the league is crazy, and nothing is ever guaranteed. No one knows what Sengun or Adams will look like when returning from major injuries. 

Clingan is a special talent with much more offensive upside than people are giving him credit for. I don’t think he’ll be a reliable outside shooter any time soon, but I also don’t think it’s crazy to believe he’ll get there based on his shooting mechanics and the work he’s putting in to get there. He’s also a good passer and could be a guy you can throw the ball to in the mid-post and low-post to get a bucket or get others involved. 

My ultimate suggestion wouldn’t be for them to take Clingan at this spot, but I do believe he’s special enough as a talent to at least warrant a conversation.

There it is, Maxwell; I’ve said something crazy. Now, confirm for our readers that I’m out of my mind.  

Maxwell: I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all. I’m also a big Clingan guy, and I’m with you as it pertains to his offensive upside. He’s an outstanding finisher and a great offensive rebounder. He gets serious contact on screens and angles them to help his teammates create the best advantage possible. The fact that he operated within UConn’s complex offensive system and slung some impressive, accurately passed dimes managed to raise my eyebrows. 

The defense doesn’t need to be discussed that much. He’s enormous, he moves well enough in space, his instincts are awesome, and he’s a big-time rim deterrent. His 12.6 BLK% across two seasons is an elite mark for a big man prospect. He’s going to have the chops, both physically and mentally, to anchor a defense. When you throw in guys like Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith… I’m not liking my chances when it comes to doing anything against that team. That’s a lot of length, a lot of athleticism, a lot of smarts, and a lot of motor. 

Here’s the thing—with how well he finishes, rebounds, screens, and passes, I’m not sure I care whether or not Clingan can shoot. It would be cool if he did, but I’m not counting on it. Still, a high-level defensive anchor, finisher, and orchestrator with that size is an All-Star level talent, if he can stay healthy and play the requisite amount of games and minutes, as you alluded to. If Sarr and Reed are gone, I’m open to the idea of it. The question becomes: “How does that further complicate your spacing, and what do you do with Alperen Sengun on defense?”

Sengun would have to be on the perimeter more in this roster configuration. You’d also really have to hope he’s ready to take, and make, more threes. I don’t love the likelihood of either of those things going super well. It’s not JUST Sengun from a spacing standpoint, either—it’s Thompson, Eason, Brooks, etc. Also, even though Jalen Green takes a lot of threes, he has never hit a great percentage in the NBA. If I’m married to Sengun internally, I may look to trade back or go with a better fit. But even with Sengun out, there’s a real chance that what Clingan does best could step on the toes of some of their other prospects. I’m not sure I love the idea of doing that. Ultimately, I’d probably opt to trade back if Sheppard and Sarr were gone, even if I have Clingan in my top tier. 

Let’s turn our attention real quick to what everyone came here for—discussion of the 44th pick in the draft. I’m generally more of a Best Player Available Guy in the second, but anyone you’d particularly like to see here if they keep the pick? I’d be tripping over myself to the podium if a solid lead guard type like KJ Simpson or Ajay Mitchell was still on the board. Another shooter like Jaylen Wells or some shot-blocking from a guy like Ariel Hukporti would pique my interest, too. 

Albert: Love the KJ Simpson shoutout; that dude rocks. The crazy thing is, I saw him play against UCLA late in the regular season, and he probably had his worst game. He never really got anything going on offense and was mostly just a ghost for most of the game. But the idea with Simpson is similar to what we’ve said about Reed. The role is simple: develop into a backup PG to give Fren Van Vleet some rest. You’d also hope he can eventually become a starting point guard someday. If he can’t, then at least you’ll have a solid backup for whoever you have to take the reigns after FVV is gone. He’s a small guard who can get buckets and has improved as a playmaker and ball-handler throughout college. I don’t mind the Jaylen Wells call, especially at this point in the draft. I’d say Wells has a long way to go before Ime Udoka feels comfortable putting him on an NBA floor, but the shooting and upside with him is definitely worth a shot at this point in the draft.

I will always push for guys like PJ Hall and Harrison Ingram in the second round because of the skillset, maturity, and size they would bring to an NBA roster. They’re both versatile forwards who’ve played in big games and have NBA-ready bodies. I’d also say looking at guards like Antonio Reeves and Tristen Newton could be interesting. If the thought process is to go and find a guy who can add some scoring punch off the bench, both were proven scorers in college. Guys like Jonathan Mogbo, Keshad Johnson, and Oso Ighodaro could be interesting options with their unique skill sets. 

The last two I’m looking at as lottery tickets or bets for the future are Justin Edwards and AJ Johnson. Both guys didn’t have the seasons they were hoping to have, and because of that, if they were to fall to the second round, a team like the Rockets could take a bet on either guy and give them time to develop. We know Johnson has a great relationship with Jalen Green, so that would be fun for them. It could give him the perfect setting to learn under that coaching staff and have an ally like Green supporting him. Johnson is such a fun guy to watch because of what he can do with the ball in his hands. There’s tons of shot-creation ability in him, the mechanics of his shot look good, and he’s got some real playmaking potential as well. Don’t let the rough season in the NBL put you off the scent. Johnson has the potential to be nasty on the offensive side of the ball one day. Edwards is worth taking a shot on because of his prototypical wing size, his pedigree as one of the top prospects coming into college basketball last season, and his skill set. Edwards didn’t shoot well last year, but he was known for his shooting coming into last season, and he ended up having a bad season on a packed roster. He’s got great length, some ball-handling ability, and good athleticism, and he could also be a great long-term bet for the Rockets.