How Can We Find Hope in the 2024 Draft Class?
Hope is a good thing, maybe even the best of things. And good things never die. Basketball history suggests that it's time to be hopeful about the 2024 NBA Draft class.
“Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.”
You’ve heard all of the buzz about this year's class by now.
All of the doubts.
All of the concerns.
All of the fingers pointed to what this class “isn’t” compared to what it is.
Regardless of your personal beliefs about the 2024 NBA draft class, I can guarantee you one thing… On June 26th, you’ll be turning on the television just like the rest of us.
We’re all fans. Basketball is a thirst that drives us all mad. We flock towards draft season with the hope that new individuals added to our favorite teams can improve the future outlook. We let our minds dance with the idea that a rebuild can be sped up with just one successful draft class.
Each draft offers the idea of hope. We look at an incoming crop of talent and rapidly try to find the players who offer star upside. After we designate those potential names, we start to work our way through the rest of the class. Who can give a boost to the roster? What players could someday find their way onto the court in a gritty playoff series? What players could be potential steals later in the draft? Who are the guys that could potentially go higher in a “re-draft?”
In order to get truly excited about the 2024 class, I believe you’ve got to be open-minded. What if we just didn’t look at this class with the expectations of its previous counterparts? Once you make those comparisons, you start to immediately get excited or disappointed without looking at the bigger picture.
I’m guilty of it myself. If there was a way to give an accurate “strength grade” on each class, I would love that type of technology or system. But the truth is that we can’t do it. None of these individuals are finished products. We don’t know what they can turn into. We don’t know yet what they could become.
Could this class be one that struggles in comparison to some of the greats? Absolutely. The classes like 1996 and 2003 don’t come often. We’ve been spoiled lately as basketball fans. A number of recent drafts have produced some of the top rising talent in the league. Sooner or later, it would seem as if things would start to balance itself out. But that doesn’t mean the 2024 class can’t offer contributors.
That doesn’t mean that the 2024 class can’t provide the missing pieces of the puzzle.
Last week, I did a solo podcast for No Ceilings in which I tried to lay out a blueprint for the 2024 class. However, after recording that episode, I believed that there was unfinished business with my research. I wanted to dig deeper and try to put words down to try to hammer home the idea that we should be optimistic about this incoming class. There’s talent in every class; teams just have to find it. In order to move forward with this predetermined belief that 2024 will disappoint, we have to go back and shed some light on previous trends. It’s time to look back at the past and see if we can pick up any lessons about the future.
Here are some quick hitters about draft history before you dive into the specifics. From 2000 to 2020… EVERY single NBA Draft class has presented at least three All-Stars.
It’s a fact that seems pretty ridiculous to believe.
I went back and looked at every draft class going back to 2000. To save your mind some sanity, I’m only going to break down classes that had four or fewer All-Stars. The point here isn’t to only focus on the fact that All-Stars ended up being produced. It’s to look at the type of talent that was also present in some of the notable “weaker” classes.
All-Stars in Draft Classes Since 2000
2000: 3 (Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Magloire, Michael Redd)
2001: 8 (Gilbert Arenas, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson, Mehmet Okur, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace)
2002: 4 (Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Yao Ming, Amar’e Stoudemire)
2003: 9 (Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Josh Howard, LeBron James, Chris Kaman, Kyle Korver, Dwyane Wade, David West, Mo Williams)
2004: 5 (Luol Deng, Devin Harris, Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, Jameer Nelson)
2005: 5 (Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, David Lee, Chris Paul, Deron Williams)
2006: 5 (LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyle Lowry, Paul Millsap, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Roy)
2007: 5 (Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Joakim Noah)
2008: 7 (Goran Dragic, Roy Hibbert, Deandre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook)
2009: 6 (Steph Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague)
2010: 4 (Demarcus Cousins, Paul George, Gordon Hayward, John Wall)
2011: 7 (Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Isaiah Thomas, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, Kemba Walker)
2012: 6 (Bradley Beal, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Draymond Green, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton)
2013: 3 (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, Victor Oladipo)
2014: 5 (Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Zach LaVine, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins)
2015: 4 (Devin Booker, Kristaps Porzingis, D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns)
2016: 6 (Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Ben Simmons)
2017: 6 (Bam Adebayo, Jarrett Allen, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum)
2018: 5 (Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., Trae Young)
2019: 3 (Darius Garland, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson)
2020: 4 (LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey)
2000
All-Stars: 3
Kenyon Martin (1st Overall), Jamaal Magloire (19th), Michael Redd (43rd)
Notables:
Stromile Swift (2nd), Darius Miles (3rd), Mike Miller (5th), Jamal Crawford (8th), Keyon Dooling (10th), Hedo Turkoglu (16th), Quentin Richardson (18th), Morris Peterson (21st), DeShawn Stevenson (23rd), Eddie House (37th)
Many like to point at the 2000 class as one of the “weaker” classes in terms of recent draft history. It’s understandable when you look at the number of All-Stars (3). Sure, none of those players turned out to be franchise-altering pieces. But when you start to look at the notables, you can see why it’s important to be optimistic about each draft class.
Players like Darius Miles, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, and Hedo Turkoglu all went on to have LENGHTY careers at the NBA level to mention a few. Despite the lack of superstar power, this class had contributing pieces who found a way to carve out roles at the NBA level for a long time.
2002
All-Stars: 4
Yao Ming (1st), Amar’e Stoudemire (9th), Caron Butler (10th), Carlos Boozer (35th)
Notables:
Jay Williams (2nd), Mike Dunleavy (3rd), Drew Gooden (4th), Nene Hilario (7th), Tayshaun Prince (23rd), Matt Barnes (46th), Luis Scola (56th)
The 2002 Draft class became known as the Yao Ming class, as the talented big man set the basketball world on fire with his freakish size and skills at the NBA level. Many viewed the 2002 class as lacking a punch at the time, as there were plenty of questions surrounding the legitimacy of Yao Ming as a franchise big and potential #1 pick.
But then we started to see some legit names rise to the surface over the years. Amar’e Stoudemire became one of the top forwards in the game with his athleticism and offensive firepower. Caron Butler and Carlos Boozer became players who played at a high level for a long time.
Then you start to dig deeper and notice players all over the board who became important rotation assets for organizations. Players like Mike Dunleavy (3rd), Drew Gooden (4th), Nene Hilario (7th), Taysahun Prince (23rd), Matt Barnes (46th), and Luis Scola (56th) all became individuals who were crucial parts of teams looking to find a boost on their roster as a “connecting” piece. If not for an injury to Jay Williams (2nd) this class could have gotten even more respect.
2010
All-Stars: 4
John Wall (1st), Demarcus Cousins (5th), Gordon Hayward (9th), Paul George (10th)
Notables:
Evan Turner (2nd), Derrick Favors (3rd), Ed Davis (13th), Eric Bledsoe (18th), Avery Bradley (19th), Hassan Whiteside (33rd), Lance Stephenson (40th)
When you look at the 2010 class alone, there’s some pretty intriguing firepower that found its way onto NBA All-Star rosters. Four names in the Top 10 would rise to become some of the brightest rising stars in the league at different tenures throughout their careers.
That alone should make the class intriguing enough. But then you continue to dive into the depths and find value all over the draft board. Evan Turner might not have lived up to the expectations of being a second overall selection, but he still managed to play 10 years at the NBA level. Names such as Derrick Favors (3rd), Ed Davis (13th), Eric Bledsoe (18th), and Avery Bradley (19th) all managed to play 12 years at the NBA level. Despite being second round selections, Hassan Whiteside (33rd) and Lance Stephenson (40th) also managed to play for 10 years.
2013
All-Stars: 3
Victor Oladipo (2nd), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th), Rudy Gobert (27th)
Notables:
Otto Porter Jr (3rd), Cody Zeller (4th), Alex Len (5th), Nerlens Noel (6th), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8th), CJ McCollum (10th), Steven Adams (12th), Dennis Schroder (17th), Tim Hardaway Jr. (24th), Reggie Bullock (25th)
The 2013 NBA Draft class will go down in history as the Giannis Antetokounmpo draft. Despite it producing one of the top talents we’ve seen in NBA history, the class has still drawn plenty of criticism compared to its contemporary classes. Rudy Gobert went 27th—not bad for a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Despite dealing with injuries, Victor Oladipo (2nd) was a rising talent in the league who still has managed 10 years of NBA service.
Then you start to focus on some of the other notables and just how long they’ve managed to stick around on an NBA roster. Otto Porter Jr (3rd), Cody Zeller (4th), Alex Len (5th), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8th), CJ McCollum (10th), and Tim Hardaway Jr (24th) are just a few players who have been around for 11 years of NBA service.
It’s easy to point at a class and be hungry for star power, but when you look at any class and see players who are climbing north of 10 years at the NBA level, that has to be viewed as a success at some point.
2015
All-Stars: 4
Karl-Anthony Towns (1st), D’Angelo Russell (2nd), Kristaps Porzingis (4th), Devin Booker (13th)
Notables:
Willie Cauley-Stein (6th), Myles Turner (11th), Cameron Payne (14th), Kelly Oubre Jr (15th), Terry Rozier (16th), Tyus Jones (24th), Larry Nance Jr (27th), Kevon Looney (30th), Montrezl Harrell (32nd)
This is another class that can be looked at as offering some similarities when it comes to the 2013 class. When you look at the All-Stars in this class, there are some big names.
Karl-Anthony Towns (1st), D’Angelo Russell (2nd), Kristaps Porzingis (4th), and Devin Booker (13th) have all become exciting talents in the league who were well deserving of All-Star nods.
But then you start to look at the rest of the class and notice that the depth has continued to hang around in the league. Names like Myles Turner (11th) and Kevon Looney (30th) have become important pieces of the puzzle for their organizations. Other names such as Kelly Oubre Jr (15th), Terry Rozier (16th), Tyus Jones (24th), and Larry Nance Jr (27th) are just a few examples of players who continued to be desired assets for teams looking for a boost in their rotation.
2019
All-Stars: 3
Zion Williamson (1st), Ja Morant (2nd), Darius Garland (5th)
Notables:
RJ Barrett (3rd), De’Andre Hunter (4th), Coby White (7th), Cameron Johnson (11th), PJ Washington (12th), Tyler Herro (13th), Brandon Clarke (21st), Grant Williams (22nd), Jordan Poole (28th), Keldon Johnson (29th), Nic Claxton (31st), Daniel Gafford (38th), Terance Mann (48th)
We’re starting to now get into the “new” territory. What I mean by that is that even though the All-Star number is low, it doesn’t mean that it can’t go up in the future years. But this is where we can especially start to point out what’s “fresh” and notice the type of depth that can come within a draft class despite it lacking “superstar” firepower.
Zion Williamson (1st), Ja Morant (2nd), and Darius Garland (5th) have all had their moments of showcasing just how special they can be at this level. But there are still plenty of other players who are either looking to take that next step or have cemented themselves as crucial pieces for their organization.
RJ Barrett (3rd) continues to trend upward, and Coby White (7th) is coming off a tremendous breakout year for the Chicago Bulls. Names like Cameron Johnson (11th), PJ Washington (12th), and Tyler Herro (13th) all look to be important assets for their current teams.
Then you start to get into the depths and notice some intriguing names who could be players to watch out for moving forward. Names like Grant Williams (22nd), Jordan Poole (28th), Keldon Johnson (29th), Nic Claxton (31st), Daniel Gafford (38th), and Terance Mann (48th). All of those players have had their moments of showcasing potential. Some have landed in other spots, which are allowing their upside to be unlocked. Some are looking like potential names who could be on the rise sooner rather than later.
2020
All-Stars: 4
Anthony Edwards (1st), LaMelo Ball (3rd), Tyrese Haliburton (12th), Tyrese Maxey (21st)
Notables:
Onyeka Okongwu (6th), Obi Toppin (8th), Deni Avdija (9th), Devin Vassell (11th), Aaron Nesmith (14th), Cole Anthony (15th), Payton Pritchard (26th), Jaden McDaniels (28th), Desmond Bane (30th)
We’re gonna end here with the 2020 class, because I believe if we go a little more recent, it’s a little “premature” to judge some of the younger classes. 2020 was drawing plenty of heat in previous years as being a potentially “weak” class. Years later, we are starting to realize just how special some of the young talent from this class can be.
Four All-Stars have been established so far with names such as Anthony Edwards (1st), LaMelo Ball (3rd), Tyrese Haliburton (12th), and Tyrese Maxey (21st). All of those have become some of the top young stars on the rise from this class.
But then we dive a little deeper and see a bundle of talent that is trending in the right direction rapidly. Deni Avdija (9th), Devin Vassell (11th), Jaden McDaniels (28th), and Desmond Bane (30th) have all become some of the top talents in this class who continue to play pivotal roles for their organizations.
Other names, such as Payton Pritchard (26th), Aaron Nesmith (14th), and Obi Toppin (8th) have started to cement themselves as important rotation pieces with their teams. Then we still have other names, such as Onyeka Okongwu (6th) and Cole Anthony (15th) who will be players to keep an eye on moving forward.
BRINGING IT TOGETHER WITH 2024
Optimism is needed for this year. We’ve all pointed at this class as being weaker when comparing it to the history of the NBA Draft. But the truth is that there’s talent in every class. Since 2000, we’ve found multiple All-Stars in every draft. Could this be the first year in which we don’t find one? Perhaps.
But recent history would show not to bet against it. Despite being “weaker” there’s plenty of talent that has tremendous upside in this class. If not for star potential, the depth of the 2024 class is what continues to intrigue evaluators and scouts moving forward.
Recent history has shown that depth can become a crucial part of each draft class. There might not be a number of “max” players in each class. But you can find individuals who can play at the NBA level for a lengthy tenure.
That’s the hammer to bring home when it comes to the 2024 class. Don’t obsess with the idea of landing a superstar. Instead, focus on finding that connecting piece that becomes so crucial to your team’s success. If you can find a player who will carve out a role at the NBA level for 10+ years, would you consider that a success? If that answer is yes, then it might be time to officially get excited about this year’s crop of talent.
“Remember Draft Fans, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”
Awesome piece
Fun to see the breakdown per each class - thanks Tyler!