Ian Jackson: The Captain’s Hook
YARRRR! What does Rowan like so much about Ian Jackson's breakout streak at UNC and what is his overall draft outlook for the 2025 NBA Draft?
“If you were waiting for the opportune moment, that was it.”
Jack Sparrow, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl
Despite its nepotism, wealth disparity issues, and various other intersections with real-world issues, basketball is a meritocracy. Sure, some players get a much longer leash than others, but when it comes down to it, a player’s talent will rise past all other factors to put the proper and deserved shine on their game.
Sometimes a player is so good that they butt their way into conversations few thought they were ready for. Ask the rest of the Cleveland Cavaliers, much less the rest of the NBA, if they were ready for the arrival of Lebron James. Other times, a talented player can finally break through on merit when their talent meets a perfect opportunity at its apex.
That happened with Draymond Green and David Lee. Had Lee not been injured, Green’s ascent into the starting lineup may have been delayed, although his talent likely would’ve earned him that spot eventually. Instead, in a limited time span, Green showed how valuable he was and served as the spine and emotional leader of the greatest NBA dynasty of the 2010s.
While less dramatic, North Carolina’s Ian Jackson has met his moment with gusto. As a freshman on a team featuring former ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis, returning point guard Elliot Cadeau, and veteran Seth Trimble, there wasn’t a clear path for Jackson to emerge as a one-and-done prospect. That hasn’t stopped him from forcing the issue with his play and making it a real topic of conversation whether or not he’s played himself into first-round contention as a freshman.
Jackson’s been a fixture in recruiting conversations for most of his career, having been named the MaxPreps National Sophomore of the Year in 2022. He’s represented Team USA at the U16, U17, and U19 levels and took the road less traveled when he spent his senior season at OTE. That swerve at the end of his prep career never affected his stock, as he was a consensus five-star prospect for most of his high school career.
With that perspective, maybe it’s not surprising to see Jackson’s name in draft conversations as a freshman. When you look at UNC’s roster, however, alongside Hubert Davis’s usual patterns of playing freshman, it was fair to wonder whether “Captain Jack” would get a chance to sail toward a stellar season. He wasn’t even the first freshman on his team to start, as Drake Powell, a fellow five-star wing recruit, has started five more games than Jackson this year.
The Tar Heels sputtered out of the gate this season, dropping games to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, and Alabama. That’s quite a murderous row of opponents, but UNC figured to feature in the title conversation. In that Bama game, however, Ian Jackson snatched his destiny by the reigns and started his rapid ascent from a theoretical draft prospect this season to a very tangible one.
So how did he do it?
Walk the Plank: Ian Jackson the Driver!!
Strip away all of the fanfare, recruiting buzz, and hoopla around Ian Jackson’s game, and you’re left with a man with a deep bag who’s a certified bucket. Since he’s been in the spotlight, the main allure of Jackson’s future potential has been his ability to score the ball at a high and efficient clip. There’s little more impressive in basketball, from an aesthetic and clutch perspective, than creating an open look for oneself, and Jackson can do so from deep or at the rim.
Listed at a svelte 6’4” and 190 pounds, Jackson is either a tall combo guard or short shooting guard. The modern game has largely eliminated positional labels, but the shoe still fits Jackson, given he’ll be an off-guard at the next level just like he is now. He’s much more adept and focused on creating his shot over setting the table for others, which is OK in moderation.
Jackson’s best skill as a scorer is his driving abilities. He’s always been forecasted as a slasher at the NBA, and whether that was due to what he was good at or bad at, it’s a fair place to start with his evaluation.
Although he’s not oversized as a guard, Jackson does have a filled-out frame that simply doesn’t look like it should be able to sail with such speed and grace. He has a lightning-quick first step, sets up dribble moves expertly to explode down the lane, and is one of the fastest players I’ve scouted in a pure open-court foot race.
Alongside his special speed is some solid leaping abilities. He’s not a jump-out-of-the-gym type of athlete, but Jackson has an ethereal grace in gliding to the cup. Sometimes, he uses it to steer around a waiting defender. Other times, the rise is abrupt, like a wave growing only to crash down on a finish. His combination of speed and jumping gives him some of the more aesthetically pleasing dunk and transition reels of the 2025 draft class.
Per Synergy, Ian Jackson’s transition efficiency grades out as “Excellent,” the highest grade available in a given play category. It’s not hard to see why. Jackson’s athletic traits harmonize perfectly to make him an impossible cover when he has a head of steam, as he can adjust or decelerate quickly to counter whatever contest attempt the defense throws up.
It’s all good to be a transition terror, but most NBA players are athletic and skilled enough to make this a bit less impressive for Jackson. Luckily, he’s also a savvy halfcourt driver, who has many tricks up his sleeves and the stats to boot.
Unlike in his past seasons in high school and at OTE, Jackson has played an almost exclusively off-ball role this year for UNC. That’s due to the presence of RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, as he often shares the floor with one or both of them. That’s limited most of Jackson’s drives to come from attacking closeouts or in planned isolations compared to his past reps as a pick-and-roll ball handler.
Just because his diet of drives has changed doesn’t mean Jackson has lost any steam on them, far from it. He’s a master of body control and speed distortion, heading downhill while also gliding in the same signature way that he does on a fast break. Per Synergy, Jackson’s shooting was an “Excellent” 65.0% on isolations this season, most of which involved him probing and dissecting hapless perimeter defenders.
Individual shot creation separates good players from becoming stars at the NBA level, so it’s a positive sign for Ian Jackson’s ultimate ceiling that he’s so good at it already. It would be an unlikely outcome with some major developmental improvements in other areas for him to get there, but he doesn’t have the same creativity or shake ceiling as other players in their star charts.
With how good he is at driving, the next place for Jackson to improve as a college and NBA prospect is to return to his roots while branching out. That means more possessions handling the ball in pick-and-rolls while growing into a more frequent cutter. The latter should be possible at UNC, given his off-ball role, but that role also makes it unlikely that he’ll get more possessions on the ball from Davis, Cadeau, or Trimble.
He has a few scattered but bright flashes in both areas, giving him more NBA utility. Professional teams demand good pick-and-roll efficiency from their guards, which Jackson will need to improve upon. Given that he only shot 40.0%, per Synergy, on two-pointers as the pick-and-roll ball handler with Jelly Fam, Jackson's improvement in his cutting could give him some further off-ball ability that could bolster his case to share the backcourt with other guards.
It’s not a question of whether an NBA team will hand the keys to Ian Jackson; despite his high skill as a driver, he doesn’t bring enough otherwise to justify it. Instead, the question is how good of a driver and finisher Jackson can become to earn the necessary touches to make himself valuable. Given the other holes in his game, the positives from this year at UNC must keep showing up on tape to convince scouts and teams fully.
Fire in the Hole: Ian Jackson the Shooter!
Alongside his penchant for driving, Ian Jackson has a dangerous jumper he’s deployed at a high level for most of his career. He hasn’t been known as a marksman from deep for his whole coronation as a prospect, as he had to work into it as he aged. Still, whether launching a contested mid-range shot or sniping a long bomb from deep, Jackson developed his jump shot into arguably the best weapon in his arsenal.
His form is solid, with enough lower body lift to complement his size in avoiding contests. Jackson doesn’t need his feet to be perfectly set to hit his shots, although he could benefit from consistent footwork on his rhythm jumpers. Jackson’s 6’4” frame does let him release the ball high enough, but it’s more about the quickness of his release that ties together his tools.
Jackson’s last year at Overtime Elite was a trying time as a truther on his shooting. Per Synergy, across his season with Jelly Fam, Jackson shot just 31.9% on mid-range jumpers and 27.1% on three-point shots. Those are hard numbers to justify to critics of Jackson’s game, especially given the lackadaisical defense often employed at the OTE level.
With a cloud of doubt hanging over his head, what has Jackson done so far for UNC? Only sail cleanly out of stormy waters and raining threes, of course. It’s admittedly a small sample, mainly because Jackson has cut down his pesky twos to just 6/10 on the year, but he’s shooting a blistering 40.3% on 4.5 attempts per game. He’s second on the team in both metrics, serving as the main sniper besides RJ Davis in this UNC offense.
It’s worth mentioning that, unlike some of his past ball-dominant ways, Jackson has reconfigured his shot chart to mesh better with Davis and Cadeau. He’s much more of an off-ball driver and shooter, which has paid off. Forty-eight of Jackson’s 67 threes have been of the catch-and-shoot variety, and he’s nailing those at a 41.7% clip. That type of efficiency would be hard to maintain but would also represent a real boon to Jackson’s draft stock as a guard prospect.
It’s an impressive array of ways that Jackson’s gotten his shot this season. He’s sniping them in transition, off broken plays, off casual ball swings, and after sly movement to fill on drives. That sort of subtle off-ball movement and awareness in all situations will be the sort of growth alongside the all-important shooting percentage that convinces teams that Jackson’s jumper has turned a corner.
I say “turned a corner” because last season was a hefty piece of evidence for the prosecution of Ian Jackson’s jumper, not its defense. Last year at OTE, Jackson took 155 threes, or 7.4 a game, and only hit 27.1% of them. Those numbers are concerning for a lead guard, especially one without truly game-breaking athleticism or certified passing chops.
To break down some numbers further, per Synergy, Jackson shot 21/81 on pull-up three-pointers for a paltry 25.9% clip. He also shot 34.1% on his pull-up two-pointers, which casts doubt on his consistency as a shot-creator in the mid-range. Neither number has perked up enough this season, nor has there been enough efficiency in either, to demonstrate that Jackson doesn’t struggle with his jumper when dribbling comes into the equation.
Some of the issues are apparent on tape. Ian Jackson doesn’t have consistent footwork on his spot-up attempts, but that goes out the window on his dribble jumpers. He’s rarely balanced, forces shots with little separation, and has no good discerning eye for when to pull up. These issues are harder to solve than just a faulty shooting form, as they’re entrenched parts of Jackson’s game that he’s built up.
Plus, despite Jackson's great shooting season, it’s hard to buy it yet. He didn’t shoot the ball well in worse competition on much higher volume and has never had the reputation of being a knockdown shooter. Jackson is putting in the hours behind the scenes on his jumper, but how much of it can be believed from just his hot start to the season?
A serviceable pull-up jumper is the absolute floor expectation for an NBA guard, given the league's high-flying defenses and varied screen coverages. If Jackson’s pull-up doesn’t develop, it’s hard to see him getting the ball in his hands on offense often. Without his offense to buoy him, there isn’t much else to earn him minutes at the NBA level.
Thus, while his spot-up shooting is certainly a marketable skill, Ian Jackson’s pull-up jumper is his swing issue at the next level instead. A Jackson who can drive with success and hit standstill shots is probably good enough to warrant a second-round draft pick; a Jackson with both of those and at least a developing pull-up jumper deserves first-round looks and some reevaluations from multiple parties, including myself.
On Stranger Tides: Ian Jackson the Creator?
You get into perplexing offensive territory once you venture outside who Ian Jackson is as a scorer. He’s playing a reduced role right now and has done so for past FIBA USA teams, which could explain some of his low numbers. At the same time, he hasn’t shown enough from his more ball-dominant stints to inspire confidence that some of his glaring weaknesses aren’t here to stay.
First, the good: Jackson is a fine rebounder, steady ball-handler, and not turnover-prone. His rebounding is simply average, but for a 6’4” guard, it’s a minor positive mark on his record how he crashes the glass. He’s willing to bang down low for rebounds and gang rebounds for his team, which likely won’t translate well to the most physical league in the world. Still, Jackson brings more rebounding than some other one-dimensional offensively-gifted prospects have in recent years.
I already touched on Jackson’s dribbling prowess during my dive on his driving, but he doesn’t get easily bumped off his spot with the ball in his hands. That’s led him to cut down from averaging 3.2 turnovers a game as the lead dog on Jelly Fam to just 1.1 turnovers at UNC in a supporting role. His 10.0% turnover percentage is fractional and represents his care with the ball when dribbling or passing.
To nitpick a clear area of strength for Jackson would be to eliminate the last place where most of his turnovers come from: his drives without purpose. A few times a game, whether in transition or off of isolation, Jackson will throw caution to the wind and barrel down the lane without much of a plan. That leads to either strips or offensive fouls and is the only consistent way Jackson turns the ball over.
He’s a dangerous driver with few flaws, but his recklessness in getting to the rim could prove his undoing. Smart NBA coaches will look to expose that for Jackson, who will need to reign in just enough of his fire to achieve the proper burn on his drives. It’s a much easier issue to fix than a passing issue granted he does have a few of those, too.
Ian Jackson’s passing issues at UNC stem from the fact that he just doesn’t do it a lot. Part of that is his role, given most of his chances to score come from passes from Davis and Cadeau. That shouldn’t explain how Jackson went from averaging a good-not-great 3.1 assists per game as Jelly Fam’s heliocentric creator to averaging an eye-watering 0.8 assists per game.
It’s a bad sign when Jackson is, per BartTorvik, one of three freshmen with a 6.0+ BPM and sub 10.0% assist percentage, especially when the other two are Khaman Maluach and Asa Newell. It’s a worse sign when, in BartTorvik’s whole database, there have only been eight freshmen under 6’6” with those same BPM and assist percentage benchmarks, and Jackson’s assist percentage ranks 7th of eight.
On the one hand, this odd query does include Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, and John Jenkins, all of whom were drafted in the first round. On the other hand, KCP and Harris were much better defenders, and all three were clear deadeye shooters from deep. Jackson can’t claim that reputation despite his good numbers this year. Add in the fact that Harris was drafted in 2014, and thus, no freshman with the same statistical combo has been since, and there is reason to worry about Jackson.
So, what does the tape itself say about his passing? If you go solely based on his Tar Heels tape, not much. Jackson only has 12 assists on the season, firmly in rim-rolling big-man territory. To get a complete view of Ian Jackson as a passer, I went back to the last place he was empowered to make decisions for himself and others with the ball in his hands: Overtime Elite.
In his sole season as Jelly Fam’s captain and leader, Ian Jackson totaled 61 assists across 21 games for his modest average of 3.1 assists per game. His Jelly Fam tape is much more in-depth than the simpler skips and swings that Jackson has shown at UNC. There are dishes on pick-and-rolls, kick-out passes that lead his teammates, quick decisions made from reversals, and some clever fakes to get shooters or finishers wide open.
None of the tape is mouthwatering, and that’s where the problem lies. Ian Jackson’s creation chops are now limited to himself due to his role. Last year, his proclivity for passing was dulled by his loose decisions with passes and drives. Even in some of the clips above, it’s clear that Jackson isn’t drilling his passing windows or consistently hitting shooters in their hands.
It’s not a need for modern guards to be good passers, but it does necessitate a pristine scoring package. Right now, that’s not what Ian Jackson has. He has a great bag, just not a generational one. There’s no consensus on whether it’s easier to develop one’s passing game or scoring package, but to be a rotation NBA guard, Jackson might have to tinker with both just to get consistent time on the floor.
Batten Down the Hatches: Ian Jackson the Defender.
I promise I don’t always arrange my articles on prospects to touch on defense last. Upon personal reflection, that did seem to be a trend, but I often realized why: a fair share of the players I’ve written about for No Ceilings simply have more offensive appeal. That, my friends, is what I’ve been telling myself for why I’ve saved Ian Jackson’s defense for last.
With his 6’4” frame and plus athleticism, Jackson has a lot to work with as a potential defender. Throw in a dogmatic, competitive attitude on both ends, and you’ve got what looks like the recipe for a solid team defender at the bare minimum. Unfortunately, the recipe must have been tampered with along the way, as that’s not what I can confidently call Jackson at this stage in his career.
It’s not that Jackson is a poor defender in one particular area; instead, he’s a mediocre defender in all areas. That’s not a life sentence for a freshman guard who carries a heavy offensive load, all relevant factors depressing his defensive chops. What it does mean, however, is that a good amount of UNC’s success on defense when he’s on the court is likely coming despite him, not from him.
Let me explain. Per BartTorvik, this year’s Tar Heels team ranks 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re not a great defensive team, partially because of Jackson, but you can’t just blame him. Neither Davis nor Cadeau have the tape nor size to be good perimeter defenders, which spreads the blame more evenly. Thus, I wouldn’t say that Ian Jackson’s defense is taking much away from UNC; it’s more just perpetuating a middling status quo.
With just a 1.3% steals percentage and 0.8% blocks percentage, Jackson brings no translatable defensive metrics to his NBA case. He’s a handsy defender when swiping at the ball and shows some intriguing athleticism on his steals and blocks on tape, but they’re too few and far between to inspire much more than the occasional eyebrow raise.
The tape itself from Jackson’s OTE stint isn’t much more inspiring. Sure, he did average a healthier 1.6 steals per contest, but the level of competition is once again paramount. The steals came in the same manner as at UNC: on digs at the right time. That’s a great foundation for a player’s defense, but there isn’t much more to Jackson’s game there that should convince you he’s a playmaking defender.
His defense otherwise, when talking on and off the ball, is maddeningly inconsistent. One play will look sparkling before a handful of duds follow. A correct rotation on an action will be nullified by Jackson not fighting through a screen hard enough. Again, these are common freshman mistakes, but they represent the limited window that Jackson’s defense has to be good at the NBA level.
When guarding off-ball, I’d rate Jackson as below average. He has some great instinctual reads to fly out to a shooter, uses some great body mechanics to glide there quickly, and can close out under control when he wants. Other times, however, he abandons his fundamentals, so UNC goes into rotation.
What concerns me most about Jackson’s defense is his tendency to die on any screen he encounters. Smart teams at the highest level will notice that immediately and hammer that weak spot until Jackson slumps on the bench. At this point, it’s a matter of desire and technique for Jackson, as some of the screens he gets hung up on are concerning, to say the least.
His on-ball defense isn’t much better. There’ve been too many times that Jackson can’t stay in front of his man; all he can do is try to catch up. Given his speed and length, he does that sometimes, but that’s not a defensive hook to hang one’s hat on. Instead, Jackson should work more on his footwork and lateral quickness so as not to get beaten as often.
None of Jackson’s defensive foibles are crushing to his draft stock. There are always polarized player archetypes taken in every draft. If one’s offense is good enough, it often counts a bit more than their defense. Plus, Jackson is still a young freshman player, giving him time to improve his defense.
If he doesn’t, however, his NBA case will get a lot more grim. Without a consistent jumper, passing game, or defensive bag, all Ian Jackson will have to justify his place is his driving. That’s not enough to sell a team on as a star player, much less as a rookie who will play primarily off of the ball, which does leave open the chance that Jackson’s surging stock could get broadsided and sunk by his unsteady defense.
All Hands on Deck: Ian Jackson’s Future?
Ian Jackson has gone from a fun sparkplug off of UNC’s bench in a few weeks to one of their most important players. He’s scoring the ball at a ridiculous clip, showing off an improved shooting stroke, and has asserted himself as one of the best freshman scorers in this draft class.
Still, despite the positives, there isn’t much new to Jackson’s game that he’s shown in this stint. Despite his current streak, he’s still an incomplete passer, an unproven shooter, and doesn’t bring much to the defensive table. That’s a lot to have to weigh against the positives for Jackson, whose draft stock seems to be teetering on a razor-thin wire.
That’s what makes Jackson’s current emergence such an interesting event. He’s riding an extended hot streak in the first major minutes of his college career to improve his draft stock. In that time, Jackson has mostly shown what he could do best before he can still do it at a high level. That’s certainly valuable but might not move the needle for many.
Instead, I’m more interested to see if Jackson can hold onto the fleeting moment he’s earned and turn it into a consistent improvement period. If he can start to show any semblance of an all-around game, he could butt into the Labaron Philon/Jeremiah Fears/Boogie Fland conversations. Until then, Ian Jackson is still a first-rounder on my Ouija Board, but one with a hook to his game that I wish he could grab and hold onto me just a little more.