Igor's Theme: Tennessee's New Prospect At-Large
Rowan takes a look at one of the creators of Tennessee's success this season in Igor Milicic Jr., diving into what makes him a versatile and fun forward prospect for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Let’s take it back to just over a year ago: Victor Wembanyama was gearing up for his rookie season with the San Antonio Spurs, the Denver Nuggets were still basking in their 2023 title win, and the Tennessee Volunteers were receiving a moderate amount of buzz in preseason polls. While murmurings were coming out of Knoxville that they had a transfer star on their hands, the country had yet to be formally introduced to Dalton Knecht.
If you love the draft, you know how the story goes from there: Knecht topped double figures in his first nine games, including an eruption for 37 points against the UNC Tar Heels. His wing scoring translated immediately to a higher level, alongside his great feel, athleticism, and overall offensive package. He parlayed his success with the Volunteers into getting drafted 17th by the Los Angeles Lakers, where he’s continuing to crush hearts with his sniping.
The drive down memory lane illustrates how Rick Barnes struck gold in the transfer portal after taking some time to get his feet wet. He sought to do so twice this offseason, bringing in a trio of talented transfer veterans: Charlotte’s Igor Miličić Jr., North Florida’s Chaz Lanier, and Hofstra’s Darlinstone Dubar.
While Dubar’s been on the shelf for most of the early season, Miličić Jr. and Lanier have quickly impacted the team. The Volunteers are winning again due to the strength of transfer scoring. While Lanier has had some of the louder shooting performances ala Dalton Knecht, there’s more to Igor Miličić Jr.’s game that stands out to me as a future professional player and a potential future first round pick.
What’s Good: Background
Most of Igor Miličić Jr.’s development has been at a slow, measured pace. He played in the Ratiopharm Ulm youth system for most of his early career before signing with Tony Bennett and Virginia. There’s not much to say for his career as a Cavalier, as he barely played and spent most of his time riding the pine before he transferred to Charlotte to turn over a new leaf.
It took two years, but throughout his time with the 49ers, Miličić Jr. developed into a dangerous player. He always had boatloads of potential given his 6’10” frame, long reach, and plus athleticism, but it all came together in his junior season for Charlotte. He started almost every game for the team, ranked first in rebounds and blocks per game, second in points per game, and fourth in assists and steals per game.
It may not be the first thing one suspects when looking at him, but Igor Miličić Jr. is a great athlete in all the ways that matter for the NBA game. He has a quick first and second jump, can gallop down the court faster than most bigs, and slides his feet well on defense. He’s quick and smart enough to switch out onto the perimeter or handle the ball himself, which adds further versatility to his game.
Miličić Jr.’s athletic profile certainly helps him have such a widespread impact on the game, but his mind is just as important. His reflexes are top-notch, as he knows when to dart into the lane and impact plays defensively, while he also times his contests at the rim preternaturally well. Miličić Jr. also keeps the ball humming at a crisp pass on offense, whether he’s picking apart a static defense or driving into the teeth of one and kicking out a skip pass.
If Miličić Jr. sounds like he doesn’t have many weaknesses, you’re hearing it right. There are certainly places he can improve, given he wasn’t blowing the doors off the AAC last year with Charlotte, but that’s a function of his game, too. Considering how unlikely it is for him to play a premier role at the NBA level, his ability to impact the game without needing a lot of possessions makes him a much more interesting prospect. Miličić Jr. is rarely the focal point of a team, yet he continues to make a profound impact upon winning basketball.
It’s instructive and fun (the best kind of lesson) to dig deep into Miličić Jr.’s stats and tape to see how he impacts the game. His highlight-worthy plays are wonderful, but his subtler stuff separates him, in my mind, from some of the other forwards available for this draft. Miličić Jr. does so much at a high level that it’s hard to overstate how ready he looks to be Tennessee’s next man up for the draft.
Run It Up: Driving
My favorite part of Igor Miličić Jr.’s game is his ability to put the ball on the ground. I first noticed Miličić Jr.’s athletic ability to get to the rim when watching his Charlotte tape last year, which felt like a scouting Easter Egg. Per Synergy, Miličić Jr. only drove 1.7 times last year for Charlotte, precisely as often as he’s driving this year for the Volunteers.
With such a low volume compared to, for example, ball-dominant guards, Miličić Jr. needs to be highly effective with the times he puts the ball on the floor. And he is. Miličić Jr. has a nasty pump fake that often leaves defenders in a daze while he jets by them to the cup. He’s a heady dribbler with a solid handle for a 6’10” player and shows the type of touch, patience, and craft to drop in difficult layups at will.
The “at will” part of that isn’t a huge exaggeration, as Miličić Jr. is shooting 76.7% at the rim this season. That scorching number underscores how effective he is as a finisher, even for a guy his size. Most other players finishing at such a high clip aren’t putting the ball on the floor from the perimeter and blowing by their defender. Instead, they’re doing what Miličić Jr. is also great at: cutting and rolling to the basket.
Igor Miličić Jr. is both a patient and decisive cutter. He has an innate feel for when to dart into the lane, not doing so sooner than needed, and uses his quick twitch athleticism to speed past defenders. This mix has helped Miličić Jr., per Synergy, earn an “Excellent” rating on his cuts to the rim this year, shooting a sterling 76.5% on these shot attempts.
If there’s a place that Miličić Jr. can improve on his way to the basket, it’s in his work as a roll man. Miličić Jr. has set good on and off-ball screens all year for the Volunteers but has not had much success on this type of shot. He’s only shooting 40.0% as the roll man, per Synergy, and hasn’t shot above 50.0% on what should be easier dimes at the rim.
There’s enough on tape for me to believe in Miličić Jr. having more success in the pros with more spacing. He’s too good of a finisher on drives to have this be his kryptonite. He’s also a stout screener for other actions, leaving his finishing as the roll man as low-hanging fruit that’s easily attainable for him in the future.
There simply aren’t many big men who move with the fluidity and force that Igor Miličić Jr. does on his way to the basket. His combination of size, touch, and strength works wonderfully to help him finish at a highly efficient clip while he still has room to grow. That extra oomph that he could get from a higher volume of pick-and-roll dimes could take him from a small sample-size shredder to a full-time problem for defenses at the NBA level.
Enjoy Right Now, Today: Shooting
As a modern forward, Igor Miličić Jr. must be able to shoot at the next level to be his best offensive self. Given how good he is at many different facets of the game, Miličić Jr. doesn’t need to shoot, but he would demand much more attention and bring more value as a floor spacer.
Based on his raw career numbers, it’s a bit muddled as to whether Miličić Jr. actually has the shooting chops to be a stretch four. He’s a career 34.8% shooter from deep across his four years in college, with his career high for a season coming last year at Charlotte. Miličić Jr. shot 37.6% from deep on 4.8 attempts, which ranked third and first on the team.
Last year’s Miličić Jr. was a fearless bomber who inspired terror in the hearts of defenses with his shot. At 6’10” with a clean, quick release, there’s not much a defense can do to stop him from shooting. Miličić Jr. is also spry enough to get out for pick-and-pop possessions, adding a new dimension to any offense he’s a part of. That’s why the dip this year, to just 25.7% on limited volume, needs context for understanding.
Until his last game against Illinois, where he had arguably his worst performance of the season, Miličić Jr. was shooting a solid if unspectacular 9/27, or 33.3%, on his three-pointers. A particularly sour night like his against the Fighting Illini tanked his numbers on paper as a stretch four, especially given how early it is in the season.
That’s why, for my evaluation, I’m trusting the tape for Miličić Jr. at Tennessee more than the numbers. He’s shown the same ability to hit catch-and-shoot threes, long shots off of movement, and to be a threat spreading out in screener scenarios. Even though his numbers haven’t caught up to his from last year, I’d bet that by the time the year ends, Miličić Jr. is back to being considered a good shooter for his position.
Without the shooting, a good amount of shine comes from Miličić Jr.’s game. He’d still be a draftable prospect based on the rest of his game in my book, but he’d have a razor-thin margin for error with NBA personnel if he’s a one-dimensional scorer. That’s why, above all else in his game, Miličić Jr. needs to retain his stretch four label to have a real shot at making an NBA roster and sticking for the long term.
New Magic Wand: Passing/Skills
Outside of his scoring, Igor Miličić Jr. has a lot of little layers to his game that make him arguably Tennessee’s best all-around player. He’s an adept scorer, but unlike Dalton Knecht last year, Miličić Jr. isn’t the leading shot-taker for the Volunteers. That’s Chaz Lanier, who’s having an insane shooting season and is a draft prospect in his own right, but that means that Miličić Jr. has to bring more to the table than just putting the ball in the basket
It’s a good thing that he does so on both ends due to his high level of skill and feel. It’s hard to quantity prospect characteristics like touch or feel, as they often defy conventional numbers, but when watching Igor Miličić Jr. play, it’s clear he has both. He puts the right amount of force on the ball, whether on shots or passes, and he has grown as a passer to the point that he’s making the right play at the right time for this Tennessee offense.
Miličić Jr. is averaging a career-high 2.2 assists per game and his lowest number of turnovers per game (1.2) since his freshman year. His 10.3% turnover percentage is minuscule for a player with a 22.9% usage rate and, when paired with his passing footage, clearly shows a player making snappy, correct decisions to help juice an otherwise stagnant offense.
Miličić Jr.’s passing chops have increased since his time in Charlotte. He’s hitting all of the passes needed for a player in his role, as he’s rarely on the ball creating for himself or others, but I am fascinated by his ability to drive and dish. He hasn’t had many chances to show off his skills, but he can deliver dimes even while flying downhill. It won’t be his calling card at the next level, but it will be another tool in his arsenal to deploy.
Besides strictly offensive skills, Miličić Jr. is a great rebounder on both ends of the floor. He’s just as aggressive in grabbing boards as he is trying to slam down dunks, although he could stand to box out more. Most of his success comes from his incredible sense of timing and unusual ability to gauge where caroms are coming off the rim.
That’s led to him having a unique player profile this year. When you take into his passing, per BartTorvik, Miličić Jr. is one of four players in the country with a positive BPM, an offensive rebounding percentage above 10.0%, a defensive rebounding percentage above 25.0%, and a better-than-1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio.
The other players (Johni Broome, Fousseyni Traore, and Ian Schieffelin) are all great bigs in their own rights but don’t bring the exact combination of fluid movement and legitimate size that Miličić Jr. has in his game. This extra versatility at his size makes Miličić Jr. stand out to me as a first-round graded prospect compared to the shakier cases of the other big men who made the query’s cut.
Where This Flower Blooms: Defense
If he was just an offensive threat, Miličić Jr. would have garnered some of, but not all of, his appeal and notoriety. Instead, he brings the same type of smart, reliable, and multifaceted play on the defensive end that he does on offense. The age of stretch fours that guard opposing players is long gone, and the ability to defend bigs, if not switch onto the perimeter, is the current meta for the NBA game.
The crux of Miličić Jr.’s appeal as a defender is the same as his on offense: his athleticism. The same speed he has heading toward the rim translates to his closeouts and rotations. The same measured approach he takes to finishing through contact and finding passing angles is apparent in his clean footwork and timing on blocks. He even uses the same ferocity that he has on drives and dunks to erase shots on the other end and body up against bigger players.
None of the advanced numbers will blow you away for Miličić Jr., but they’re steady enough to show his value. He’s averaging a career 1.7% steals percentage, which is not close to elite but is a consistent indicator of how he can do at the next level. Miličić Jr.’s steals are lower due to his discipline on defense, as he’s not one to dart into the passing lanes and gamble. Instead, his thefts are measured snags from his reflexes and from being in the right place at the right time.
It’s all well and good for a big man to generate some turnovers, but the more valuable skill for a player of his size is guarding the rim. Miličić Jr. also shines, having a long reach, great height, and a quick mind for deterring attempts. Miličić Jr.’s menacing stature isn’t why he’s only credited on Synergy as contesting nine total shots at the rim, but it speaks to who he is as a rim protector.
While his blocks are impressive due to his size and timing, it’s not always about swatting the shot for Miličić Jr. He can rotate to the right spot to force a kick back out, keep his hands up to make a close shot much harder, and stay down on pump fakes better than most. That isn’t to say that NBA personnel won’t be pleased with his shot-blocking film, as he’s a particularly mobile defender to get his deflections.
A team’s defensive efficiency is rarely just about one particular player, but it’s hard to be a bad defender in the starting lineup of an elite defensive team. Igor Miličić Jr.’s versatility is a major reason why Tennessee ranks third in BartTorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metrics this season. That type of impact, alongside his scoring punch, makes Miličić Jr. one of the more well-rounded forwards in the 2025 draft class.
Find Your Wings: The Future
With such a deep bag of positive attributes, it’s no wonder that Igor Miličić Jr. and the Tennessee Volunteers are having a splendid start to their season. The synergy of Chaz Lanier, Jordan Gainey, Jahmai Mashack, Zakai Zeigler, and the rest of the team has also been a factor. Still, this team wouldn’t be as good on either end without sporting one of the most versatile forwards in the country.
It’s fair to wonder what Miličić Jr.’s future at the next level might be like, given he looks like he could and should follow in Dalton Knecht’s transfer footsteps. The NBA always looks for athletic players taller than everyone else and can hold their own on both ends. When you factor in the potential of shooting alongside that, it’s possible to see a future where Miličić Jr. ends up as a starter on a good NBA team, just like he is now for the Volunteers.
That does rest on his shooting, however. As I said before, it’s certainly not a death knell for Miličić Jr.’s stock if his shooting regresses, but it does confine him to a gadget bench role. There just isn’t enough room for a player like Miličić Jr., who only has the size to play the four, when the rest of an NBA team’s offense is built around spacing. At a minimum, it would require pairing him with a stretch five, an even rarer archetype.
There are some other areas where Miličić Jr. can improve his game, although the returns are a bit more diminishing. He could certainly improve as a pull-up shooter from deep and inside the arc, but it’s not a shot he’ll often attempt at the pro level. Miličić Jr. is also improving as a passer but could still stand to manipulate the defense more to open up new windows.
For me, these are nitpicks for a player with few nits. They were certainly big shoes to fill, but Igor Miličić Jr. has taken a sneaker alongside Chaz Lanier and admirably filled in for what Dalton Knecht brought to Tennessee last season. If he can help the team have a similar bout of sustained success to finish the season, there’s no reason in my book that Igor Miličić Jr. can’t have the same result that Knecht had: getting drafted in the first round of the NBA draft, just one year later.