Illinois vs USC and UCLA: through the eyes of Garbage Time Ghim
Garbage Time Ghim saw potential top-five pick Keaton Wagler and the Fighting Illini twice within a week in the city of Angels.
When I saw that Illinois would be in LA to play UCLA and USC in the same week, I knew I had to block off my calendar and lock it in. Getting to see a potential top-five pick twice in two different settings was an opportunity I just couldn’t pass up. Without saying too much and taking away from my notes below, I’m glad I went to both games. Keaton Wagler is an absolute stud, but I also got to learn and see more from his teammates and guys on both USC and UCLA.
No more beating around the bush, let’s get into it.
USC vs Illinois:
Alijah Arenas:
Heading into the game, there were reports that Alijah Arenas was sick and questionable to play. I got to the Galen Center around 5 PM, two hours before tip-off, and as I walked from the parking structure to the arena, I ended up walking in with Arenas next to me. He seemed fine, locked in and ready for a big matchup. If I had to guess, I imagine his camp told him there was no way he was going to miss this matchup against Keaton Wagler, a near-consensus top-ten prospect in this class. Although Arenas looked okay walking in, you could see he wasn’t 100% during warmups. His energy levels were low; he kept to himself and appeared winded during the pre-game routine.
While on the floor with him, I could really feel how tall Arenas is. In shoes I’m a solid 6’3”. Standing next to him, he was easily 2-3 inches taller than me. Not only was he tall, but he’s got broad shoulders he’ll build upon. That’s all noteworthy, but the really jarring visual in person is his body proportions. He has a short torso and long legs, but he’s somehow very flexible and can get super low despite the length. Guys of his build aren’t always the most flexible, but it’s his flexibility that makes his movement so unique. When you combine his size, flexibility, and fluidity, you get why NBA Front Office execs are intrigued by him. In practice, the shooting mechanic looked smooth, and the handle was both tight and crafty. The issue is that he’s playing on an underperforming USC squad, taking a million shots per game, without great efficiency. He’s getting to the free-throw line, but even at 74.1%, I’d want that to be a little higher. 5.8 free throw attempts per game and 11.8 per 100 possessions is encouraging, but 33.1% from the field and 21.7% from three on 4.6 attempts per game isn’t sustainable.
Once the game began, you could tell he wasn’t right, gassed after about five minutes. Later in the second half, he hurt his quad, which was the final nail in the coffin for the night. It was a poor outing for him, but he was in bad shape, and it’s not hard to see why NBA teams are so intrigued. The offensive ceiling with him is sky high, plus he’s got a solid frame to build on. If Arenas can clean up his shot diet and work on having more of a plan on drives, he could become a terrifying offensive talent on the next level. Personally, I’d tell him to go back to school, clean some stuff up, and be a part of a less loaded class in 2027.
More Notes:
David Mirkovic is in great shape. From the time I saw him at the Nike Hoop Summit to now, he’s lost a lot of weight and gotten leaner. The strength is still there, but he just looks like he’s noticeably more conditioned. Mirkovic’s allure will always be rooted in his skill set as a big man. He can comfortably bring the ball up and initiate the offense in a pinch. He’s pretty confident in his outside jumper and competes on the glass. There are real athletic limitations as a ground-bound athlete, but he plays a smart brand of basketball and brings a ton of offensive versatility. As a defender, he tries hard and attacks rebounding opportunities, but he’s always going to be a target in switches because he’s heavy-footed. He’s not the slowest guy in the world, but it’s a trait teams on the next level will exploit. Pairing him with a rim-protecting big man like Illinois does consistently is a smart move.
Kylan Boswell will get looks in the NBA. I was never really a fan of his when he was at Arizona, but I’ve liked his tape more this year. Something I want to note is that he’s a quiet leader. During warmups, the TV crew kept leaving a cord on the court that was getting in the way of the players, and Boswell went over and moved the cord. That initiative to find a solution stood out. That type of leadership is something you feel in the game as well. He’s a selfless player who can orchestrate offense, but also has no problem playing second-fiddle to Keaton Wagler or any teammates. The hand injury still presents some limitations, but defensively, he gets his chest into guys and makes things difficult for ballhandlers. Boswell is on the shorter side, but he’s built like a fire hydrant and very difficult to move. If he were a more consistent shooter from outside, I’d feel way more confident drafting him.
The Ivisic brothers are interesting to me. Both guys bring interesting skills to the floor, but both guys also disappear in games. Tomislav is definitely a more consistent presence on the court, but he also goes long stretches without grabbing a rebound or even looking at the rim. Zvonimir is the one I think I’d be more interested in in the long term. The jumper from outside looks like a full-body catapult, and he hit a bunch of threes in warmups. His size and length can really cause problems as a rim-protector. I think he needs to continue to embrace physicality and learn to play through it on both ends of the floor.
USC was a really tough watch with a sick Alijah Arenas, and without Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice. They just couldn’t create any offense at all; they looked completely disjointed all game, and it just got pretty awkward in the second half with how bad they were. It didn’t even feel like Illinois was trying very hard.
UCLA vs Illinois:
Keaton Wagler:
You may be wondering why I didn’t touch on Keaton Wagler’s performance against USC; I wanted to give a joint eval of what I saw from him over the two games. For over a month now, I’ve had Wagler in my top five. Seeing him in-person really solidified that for me, even though he didn’t have the best two-game stretch of the season.
Standing on the floor with him, the first thing that really stands out is how tall he is. He looks every inch of 6’6” he’s listed at. Additionally, he’s very long, and yet very coordinated and comfortable with his size. He feels lived in and used to his stature, and when you’re next to him and watching him move around the court, you feel it. The next thing that shone was his shooting stroke. I know it looks a little funky, but man, he shoots a really easy ball, plus he’s comfortable letting it fly from anywhere on the court, even from very deep. It looks absolutely effortless and repeatable. In warmups for both games, he was nailing shot after shot and just looked super smooth at all times.
When it comes to his performance in both games, I want to acknowledge once again, this wasn’t peak Keaton Wagler. The USC game was a tough one because USC was so bad that it never really felt like Wagler needed to do a lot. He ended up playing 29 minutes, went 3/7 from the floor, and it just felt like he and the whole squad were on cruise control. The few times he was asked to do things, he was able to highlight his ability as a ball handler in ball-screen actions. He showed supreme patience, actively surveying the court, reading the low man's moves, and finding the paint almost at will. It was some truly impressive stuff.
Against UCLA, he had a really tough shooting night; he went 5/15 from the field and 1/6 from three, but was still impactful nonetheless. It was apparent that his shooting wasn’t there that day, but he found ways to affect the game with eight rebounds, six assists, and three stocks. Even though the efficient shooting wasn’t there, this was another game where he was getting into the lane and creating opportunities for himself or his teammates. Wagler is a talented passer who displays great feel and can make high-level reads as a ball-handler. When he’s initiating ball screens, he does a great job of slowing things down and finding his roller with inch-perfect passes or lobs, but can also see the second side and hit guys with skip passes to the corner. Wagler is a plus passer, and his passing ability really is the wrinkle that makes me a believer in his long-term potential as a primary option on offense.
I know people are going to question his athleticism and his ability to consistently create things for himself. Even in these two games, there were possessions when they’d pressure him with the ball, leading him to turn it over or reset. The encouraging sign is that he’s not afraid to play through contact. He’s smart about reading driving angles, and he’s got a wide arsenal of moves to create separation. He plays real savvy, mixing up tempos and using his eyes and fakes to get defenders off their feet. Wagler has a deadly spin move that’s low to the ground and jarring for defenders to stay in front of.
At this stage of his development, his defense will have some real peaks and valleys. During the game against USC, he had moments when he was lacking focus; some of his screen navigation was pretty abysmal, but there were also points when they were winning by 20-plus. Against UCLA, I think the Illini coaching staff may have addressed some of that with him pre-game, because he was way more aggressive about using his slight frame to slip over screens. Wagler is proficient at using his size and length to be a pesky defender, but adding strength over time will help him wall guys up. He may never be an elite defender, but I think he can become a very good one because he cares.
The sell for Wagler is simple for me. He has real potential to become a primary ball-handler or initiator on the next level. He’s got plus size for a guard and looks to have good length and frame to build upon. I don’t think he’ll ever have Kawhi Leonard's physique, but he should be able to add good mass to his frame, which will help him handle the physicality of the NBA. Wagler has shown real ability to create with the ball in his hands, and his shooting and movement off the ball make him a really interesting, versatile offensive weapon who can impact the game with or without the ball.
More notes:
To me, Tyler Bilodeau is an NBA player. He’s just too big and shoots the ball too well to get a look in the NBA. The shooting is a real weapon for him, and the fact that he’s a legit 6’9” with huge shoulders and back makes him tough to deal with. He’s comfortable shooting with a hand in his face, and comfortable letting it fly from beyond the three-point line. Where Bilodeau will lose some fans is in his defense. He can be really rough on this end of the floor at times, given his limited lateral mobility and lack of attention to detail. I’ve seen him lose his man many times throughout the season or be out of position and get absolutely eviscerated by Coach Cronin. His defense won’t win him a ton of fans, but his ability to shoot the ball at a high level at his size makes him a very interesting screener on the next level.
Trent Perry is a guy I’m going to be watching very closely next season as a potential breakout candidate. Perry has added a ton of mass to his frame; he’s a very tough and compact guard at 6’4”. He has much more confidence in his jumper this season, and the results are there. On the season, he’s shooting 44.6% from outside on 3.1 attempts per game. The volume isn’t anything crazy, but he’s also playing on a UCLA squad where the offense mostly runs through Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau. He picks his spots well and knocks down big shots, while also trying to leverage his shooting gravity into closer opportunities.
Donovan Dent is really starting to kick things into gear. Dent had 14 points and 15 assists in the game. Dent was a maestro with the ball in his hands, getting into the lane a ton and finding open shooters and bigs all night long. Dent is always going to be a tricky eval because of his size, but also because he really doesn’t take a lot of threes. On the season, he’s at 24.1% from three on only two attempts per game. That’s only 3.5 attempted per 100 possessions. If Dent would take and make more threes, he’d become way more interesting as a player for me as a potential first or second off an NBA bench. To his credit, even with his smaller stature, Dent really competes on defense. He’s a really good shot blocker for his size and can really be a pest for ball handlers who are loose with the ball around him. I don’t know what Dent’s future holds, but it’s great to see him playing good basketball down the stretch.
MANNNN If Andrej Stojakovic’s jumper wasn’t absolutely cooked, I’d be way more interested in him as a future pro. He’s added a ton of muscle, does some interesting things with the ball in his hands, but his jumper looks absolutely busted in person. He looks really uncomfortable on every shot, and the way he brings the ball up on the left side of his face makes it look like he covers his eyes on every jumper with his right hand/forearm. He essentially looks like he’s shooting without looking.
I feel tremendously blessed to have seen both games in person for No Ceilings. Film is great and so are stats, but marrying all of that with in-person evals seems to be the best way to go. I had a close friend in the draft space tell me, every time you see a player, that’s one point of data going into your brain. Keep stacking more input, and you’ll have a more holistic understanding of the player.