In the Right Situation, Devin Carter Could Be a Major Steal

Landing spot always matters, but if Devin Carter goes to the right team, he could be a massive steal for a contender.

Prospects who have outlier breakout seasons as an upperclassman are always a tough evaluation. On one hand, we never want to discredit or diminish success, but when there is a substantial leap, it’s tough not to ask questions. Has the player really improved that much or are they just having a hot streak? Did an improved role help unleash untapped potential or are they putting up bigger numbers just because they have the ball more? Unfortunately, there isn’t a clear decision tree that we can follow that will tell us what will happen. All we can do is take the numbers and tape that the player is producing, compare them to prospects who came before, and try to answer the unending questions that come with evaluation. One of the players who has raised the most questions of this fashion in the 2024 NBA Draft is the junior guard from Providence, Devin Carter.

Carter has been one of the darlings of the draft space in recent months, and it is well deserved. The 6’3” junior guard is having a hell of a season as he’s producing significantly higher numbers than last year despite averaging just under three more minutes per game. A big reason for this uptick in production is the necessity for it after Bryce Hopkins went down, but that doesn’t diminish the monstrous leap in not only production but also efficiency from Carter. So far this season, Carter is averaging 18.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.6 stocks on 48/38.6/72.2 shooting splits in 34.8 minutes.

Carter’s calling card has always been his defense, which has continued to shine this season, but his turning into an offensive juggernaut has been unexpected. Aside from just the raw box score numbers experiencing a massive spike, Carter’s efficiency numbers have also improved exponentially across the board, as we can see from Barttorvik. While his defensive numbers have dropped a bit, they are still very good, and it makes sense given the significant uptick in offensive responsibilities. Seeing players experience this type of growth later in their college career is fantastic, but it will always beg the question of how real it is, and also what it means for the next level.

Outright dismissing Carter’s production and improvement is nonsense. He’s been thrust into a new role after losing one of the team’s best players, and he’s performed at an impeccable level. When we look at Carter’s scoring efficiency, playmaking, defensive, shooting, and overall impact numbers as a benchmark to compare to past players, we get a fascinating list.

The problem with this list is that it is comprised of high-impact NBA players or guys who barely sniffed the league at best. All this list really shows us about Carter is that he’s having an incredible season that mirrors those of some of the best college players in recent history. Unfortunately, Carter feels more like a player whose NBA outcome will land somewhere in the middle of these extremes.

Instead of looking at just this year’s numbers, let’s look at his career numbers and how they compare to those of players who have succeeded in the NBA as role players while playing a similar style. Carter has a point guard’s body, but he doesn’t really play like a point guard. The clearest path to success for Carter is through his defense. He spends a lot of time playing off-ball on offense, is effective at getting to the rim, is a terrific rebounder, and has improved as a shooter. However, he struggles to create space and shoot off the bounce given his funky shooting mechanics. Some NBA players who fit the bill are Davion Mitchell, Jevon Carter, Patrick Beverley, and Bruce Brown. All of them played multiple years in college, all were terrific defenders, and all had questions surrounding their shooting numbers. They also all had similar career college numbers to Carter.

Exclusively viewing Carter through the lens of his numbers this season is setting him up for failure. Maybe he’s the outlier that reaches the heights of some of the guys from the first list, but the more realistic and feasible outlook is that of the second group.

The biggest question with Carter is his jumper. Carter is up to 38.6% from three on 6.4 attempts, which is outstanding. However, in the previous two seasons, he shot just 26.7% and 29.9% while also shooting 68.8%, 72%, and 72.2% from the free throw line all three seasons. On top of that, some of Carter’s shot profile numbers engender even more questions.

Let’s start with where Carter’s shot has really shined this year, though. As a shooter, Carter has been at his best shooting off the catch. Per Synergy, Carter is scoring 1.11 points per possession (PPP) when spotting up (81st percentile), 1.000 PPP off screens (64th percentile), and 1.34 PPP shooting off the catch (93rd percentile).

Carter has good touch on his jumper and has proven to be a legitimate off-ball threat. When we think about the best landing spots for him to succeed, putting him alongside an already established creator (preferably a jumbo one) allows him to focus on being a defensive force, knocking down open jumpers, and filling in the gaps where needed. It’s a shooting role that he’s thrived in this season.

What he’s also shown, though, are funky mechanics and difficulty in shooting off the bounce. Carter’s mechanics are far from picturesque. He has a low, push release that has a hitch in it, uses a ton of arc, and has a very slow release. Funky mechanics are fine, as long as the shot goes in. While Carter’s shots have been going in on the whole this season, they are also extremely limited.

So far, Carter is shooting just 32.4% off the bounce and scoring 0.91 PPP (68th percentile). In total, not awful. The bulk of that success has come from three, though, where Carter is shooting 34.6% compared to just 25% from two. Additionally, according to Synergy, Carter has taken only 18 midrange jumpers, where he’s shooting 27.8%, compared to 136 three-pointers, where he’s shooting 40.4%.

Carter’s slow, funky release completely negates his ability to score in the midrange and limits him to pull-up shooting almost exclusively when defenders go under screens. He already struggles to create space, and his mechanics exacerbate the issue. Here’s the thing, though: it doesn’t matter. Carter will likely rarely be asked to generate his own looks in the NBA. Instead, he’ll have to be a reliable play-finisher as we’ve seen from Brown, Mitchell, Carter, and Beverley. In those situations, Carter has shown legitimate value.

As long as Carter forces the defense to respect his shot, it’ll be more than enough. By reaching that level as an off-ball shooter, it’ll open up plenty of opportunities for him to attack closeouts. Carter has been a fantastic at-rim finisher all season out of a myriad of situations. Currently, Carter is scoring 1.33 PPP (81st percentile) and shooting 66.4% at the rim.

Carter is comfortable attacking the rim off screens, in the pick-and-roll, attacking closeouts, or in isolation. This ability makes him supremely malleable in a rotation as he can act as more of an off-ball guard or run the second unit. When he attacks the rim, he is scoring 1.111 PPP after running off screens, 0.917 PPP after spotting up, 0.889 PPP in isolation, and 1.371 PPP running the pick-and-roll. Carter’s ability to combine his strength, straight-line burst, touch, and extension finishes makes him an incredibly effective slasher.

On top of the scoring threat, Carter is also a terrific playmaker out of drives. He sees the floor at a high level and is a sound decision-maker. Carter occasionally flashes some flair with his playmaking, but most of his assists come from quality decisions. He is comfortable threading the ball through narrow windows on the interior and rarely forces the issue. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.41 is very real and likely will improve when put in even more of a complimentary role. Carter’s ability to consistently collapse a defense and make the right decision between pass and shoot has been one of his most impressive traits this season.

His most impressive trait this season by far, though, has been his defense. Rookies rarely are day one ready on the defensive end, but Carter may be the exception. He constantly gets in a low stance, has terrific footwork, and plays with a ton of physicality. His defensive playmaking numbers are impressive, and the tape is even more so. While Carter can occasionally get caught off-ball, those typically feel like more of a coverage issue where he’s being asked to play extremely aggressive ball denial.

Overall, though, there isn’t much to nitpick with Carter’s defense. When he is on the court, Providence has a defensive rating of 91.5 (fifth) compared to 100.6 (82nd) when he’s off. He can pick up the point of attack, use his strength to switch on wings, and be disruptive in passing lanes. He has a special knack for avoiding screens and treats opposing ball handlers like his little brother as he refuses to surrender an inch on drives.

Despite the 2024 NBA Draft being flush with small guards, there aren’t any like Devin Carter. His defensive prowess could make him the rare rookie who is a positive contributor on defense. Ultimately, though, it will be Carter’s offense that will likely be the determining factor in his success. Carter has improved significantly as a shooter, but his shot is far from unblemished. His rim pressure is a serious weapon, especially when combined with his decision-making. Like so many players, Carter’s landing spot is going to be crucial. If he can land in a spot that uses him as a defensive menace and an outlet option on offense, Carter could be a diamond in the rough in this draft class.