Is Ryan Dunn's Shooting Leap Sustainable? | Youth Movement NBA
Ryan Dunn has started off the season for the Phoenix Suns hitting threes at a rate never seen during his collegiate career. Is this development of his sustainable?
Development in NBA prospects IS NOT linear.
That much has been proven over time. Players who have promising careers ahead of them fail to develop around the margins that separate professionals from amateurs. Prospects who were off the radar for most of their time before the NBA pop and outperform predetermined expectations to become valuable rotation assets.
We’re all aware of the outlier stories. That’s what makes scouting for a professional sport addicting. The rush in trying to “break the system” and figure out which players who are under-discussed are primed for breakout careers and WHY. Scouts spend countless hours perfecting their craft, only to have misses on the proverbial dart board just like every other scout and analyst.
Basketball, or any sport for that matter, is an imperfect science. There is no secret formula to get everything right. Proven processes, models, and ways of watching tape can lead to better results than most, but there’s always a player out there who bucks the trend and soars to greater heights earlier than foreseen.
One example of such a player already came out of his offensive shell during the NBA’s preseason, and he has carried such confidence and bravado over to the regular season for a team firmly in the playoff hunt.
Ryan Dunn’s shooting leap isn’t just an outlier. It’s truly an outlier among outliers.
Background
Ryan Dunn’s shooting before his time spent at the University of Virginia wasn’t as sporadic as some might wonder when looking at his college statistics.
Per Chris Keesee and Synergy Sports, Dunn shot 40.6% from beyond the arc on 3.2 attempts per game in U17 AAU and 44% from distance over the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons for Long Island Lutheran.
And through two seasons at Virginia:
2022-23: 31.3% from 3 on 0.5 attempts per game (16 3PA); 4-15 on C&S 3’s; 50% from the FT line on 0.7 attempts per game (22 FTA)
2023-24: 20% from 3 on 1.0 attempts per game (36 3PA); 7-34 on C&S 3’s; 53.2% from the FT line on 2.3 attempts per game (77 FTA)
These are some pretty drastic differences in both volume and efficiency. The swing back in the other direction in regards to his early NBA performance is even crazier when factoring in it’s coming within the rotation of a Phoenix Suns squad that’s reeled off seven straight wins as of 11/9 and sits on an 8-1 record.
Rookies find playing time incredibly difficult as it is unless they’re a highly drafted lottery pick. So, for Dunn to already have a grip on a role in which he gets on the floor 16 minutes a night is pretty remarkable given he wasn’t a lottery pick. But that difference in shooting output, coupled with his already-known defensive prowess on the wing, speaks to why.
Through eight games, Dunn is shooting 39.4% from three on over 4.1 attempts PER GAME, already having attempted 33 threes on the season! At this rate, Dunn will have eclipsed his total collegiate attempts from deep in the matter of just a few more games.
Breaking those numbers out a bit further, Dunn is shooting 51.5% on corner threes per Basketball-Reference, and 38.7% on catch-and-shoot threes.
These numbers put him in quite the company among young NBA players, which is why I wanted to put Dunn’s performance in comparison with his peers to determine if there are any other recent examples of upticks in both volume and efficiency (albeit on a SMALL sample size) from deep.
Young Shooter Study
Per 11/9, this was a study that I wanted to put together to compare Ryan Dunn’s shooting trajectory pre and post-draft with those in a similar age group of those under 25.
38 players in the NBA under the age of 25 as of 11.3.24 had 3P% of 34% or greater
Of those 38, 42% of those players in their pre-draft season had attempted 150 threes or more; 68% attempted 100 or more
Of the 12 who attempted less than 100 threes in their pre-draft season, six had 3P% lower than 30% in that very season (none lower than Dunn); four of those 11 have career NBA 3P% less than 34% (Josh Giddey, Malaki Branham, Ziaire Williams, Jalen Green)
Dunn had the lowest number of total attempts in said season on the list (next closest to Dunn: Patrick Williams w/ 50 attempted threes and Isaac Okoro w/ 70 attempted threes)
Of the 26 players who attempted 100 threes or more, only one had a 3P% lower than 30% in said pre-draft season (Anthony Edwards, who also had the fourth-most attempts on the list at 245 threes)
What this information tells us is that there are very few comparisons in recent memory to what Dunn is doing, and there are NONE doing it as fast as he is during a rookie season. During his rookie season, Isaac Okoro shot 39% from three, and Patrick Williams was at 39.1% in his first campaign on significantly fewer attempted shots per game.
I’m sure by now, you’re reading this with quite a few questions needing answers. How is this possible? Were there mechanical changes made to Dunn’s shot to exhibit these kinds of results? How can a drastic shooting leap seemingly take form so quickly? Were there other indicators prior to college to suggest this was possible?
For more context, I decided to not only look at the tape, but to talk to someone rooted in player coaching and development who also happened to work with Dunn both this past summer and prior in the highly regarded Phil Beckner.
Beckner has worked with numerous NBA players during his time as a coach at both lower levels and now as a player development specialist including most famously Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, and Cam Johnson. I highly suggest watching the full interview below he did with myself and the No Ceilings team. Coach Beckner not only added some commentary behind Dunn, but spoke to what shooting development is and means for young players as a whole across the board.
Film Study
Let’s take a look at a number of attempts from Ryan Dunn at Virginia last season, both makes and misses.
I do have some notes on Dunn’s shooting mechanics specifically, but the context of a number of these examples helps to paint the picture behind some of those observations, most notably the time on the shot clock at which the ball actually swings around to Dunn.
Go through these clips, and more from his time at Virginia, and you’ll see that there really isn’t much rhyme or reason to getting Dunn an open shot. He’s a bailout option late in the shot clock.
If one is to instill confidence in a shooter, generally there are at least a few sets run to provide cleaner looks earlier in the clock. Virgina’s offense was so cluttered with poor floor spacing and a lack of guards and other wings who could break down a defense that everything about the pace and approach was constipated, for lack of a better word. If you needed more statistical evidence to prove that theory out, last season per Synergy, Virginia’s offense rated out at 0.9 points per possession with an effective field goal percentage of less than 50%.
Keep those points in mind when watching through the highlights (lowlights?) above again, and taking a look at some of the notes I took regarding Dunn’s pre-college and Virginia attempts from deep.
Inconsistent Base – Base in his shot varies from very wide to slightly wide, knees aren’t consistently bent.
Weird Guide Hand – Occasionally his guide hand obstructed his follow through and caused a weird arc/spin on his jumper.
Inconsistent Release Point – Sometimes releasing on the way up or way down (mostly way up); When he released at the apex of his jump, follow through was on target leading to more “swish” makes.
All three of these notes are Dunn’s mechancial issues to fix, but none are made any better when evaluting the team context as well as the position he was in to actually make any of his three-point attempts. When Dunn actually had some time and wasn’t catching with three seconds to fire, there were some examples above where his base was set better, and he was much cleaner going up.
To me, the biggest thing to take away in terms of immediate mechanical revisions was in his shot preparation, which has a few layers to it. Consistently bending your knees, hands in the shooting pocket, feet set, body square: any of those things can be thrown off if a shooter’s rhythm isn’t there, and when I spoke to Coach Beckner about this very point, he agreed regarding rhythm but also noted a few other points when coaching success as a shooter.
“The three things in general players could prepare for overall when going to the next level: speed of the game, distance of the three-point line, and movement,” said Beckner. “If a player can’t beat the speed of the game, the distance of the line, or the movement, he’s not going to make any shots and it’s really hard to beat those things unless they’re actually being prepared for it.”
Regardless of the work that was done behind the scenes with Dunn’s shooting in offseasons and even in workouts and practices during the season, there was nothing within the Virginia offense that played to what Coach Beckner said regarding preparing a shooter for an NBA transition.
That is why Dunn’s outlier development is incredibly fascinating but can also help to be explained not just through mechanical improvements but through the spacing and team construction on the floor for the Suns.
Now I can’t say every make here in the above clips for Dunn is with 16 seconds in the shot clock. Per Dunks and Threes, the Suns rate about 18th in Pace (measured as possessions per 48 minutes), meaning that not every shot is getting fired off in seven seconds or less like the Steve Nash/Mike D’Antoni Phoenix teams back in the day.
But notice the spacing on every single shot, as well as the personnel Dunn gets to share the floor with. A combination of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, and Jusuf Nurkic—these are all players who thrive in either creating offense or converting as play finishers.
Every defense’s attention is going to be away from Dunn on a consistent basis to either double on someone else, scram, or cover another pick-and-roll action while Dunn gets to eithe relocate to a new spot or have his shot prepped in the corner or on the wing without someone already hovering over him like in college.
Some strong, hard closeouts aside, this makes a world’s difference for Dunn as a shooter. Again, keep this new context in mind when reading my notes here on what I observed watching all of Dunn’s makes from three off the catch with the Suns.
Base is much more consistent; Goes with a wider base, but knees are consistently bent and he’s prepped and confident waiting for the ball to come around; Goes right up with the shot.
Guide hand is off the ball and isn’t interfering with the spin/arc of the shot.
Still has a tendency to release on the way up which causes most of his misses, but a lot more consistency getting to the apex of his jump leading to much more consistent makes.
Biggest factor to my eye is in his shot preparation and confidence, along with the amount of space he’s had to shoot; Less defensive attention being on a Suns team w/ multiple top-tier scorers, and depending on who has to close out Dunn has more time to let himself get to the top of his jump to release.
There is no question Dunn made some needed adjustments in regardds to his guide hand and base, but his overall readiness and confidence to shoot being in a high-powered offense with plenty of spacing and ball movement is evident.
It’s easy for us to look at examples of players improving certain skills, and getting in better shape, and say every player should be able to rapidly develop and produce on an NBA floor! And if not, they’re all busts!
BUT CONTEXT MATTERS!! The fact that Dunn was drafted by the Suns is FAR from the only reason he’s succeeding as a shooter early on, but it’s paying dividends.
Coach Beckner spoke about just how important base and balance are when it comes to establishing a foundation for shooting, which I do think plays into everything regarding context and role when requisite talent is around the developing player.
“Base and balance are universal with everyone,” said Beckner. “We believe the number one factor to predicting whether a player is going to make or miss a shot is base and balance. The one thing I think is lacking so much whether it’s a vet or a rookie is hall-of-fame footwork. If you can do that, your base and balance get way, way better. And now the technical part of your shooting is easier to adjust with your brain and body better connected.”
What also matters in that context is the person putting in the work, and when I asked Coach Beckner about the type of person Ryan is, he had nothing but glowing things to say.
“What makes Ryan really, really special is he has character and intelligence,” said Coach Beckner. “Ryan had a level of intelligence to listen to the right people, to feel something biomechanically and knew it would work, and be able to repeat it. He could also lock in on a term or a teaching point and was smart enough to concentrate on that while he was doing his work. As competition increases, execution decreases. Once speed, distance, and movement increases, a player’s confidence or level of execution get eliminated. Ryan’s has intelligence about his own game and biomechanics that’s going to make him really, really good.
Conclusion
There’s a lot to ulitmately unpack with the Ryan Dunn story regarding his shooting. But what Coach Beckner spoke to both in this piece and across the full interview is so true. Picking apart certain aspects of a shot is one thing, but without the right FOUNDATION, those improvements can revert back to bad older habits when said player is put in a new, more challenging situation.
The context of Dunn’s situation, in terms of his own awareness, the people he has around him, and the team he’s on, are factors not every player has in front of them. So, while we will continue to see statistical improvements from players in shooting and other categories across basketball, I do truly believe this is a story that’s pretty unique and special when it comes down to HOW QUICKLY everything has seemingly clicked for Dunn.
One last point I’ll add regarding evaluating shooting, is in looking at numbers that exist beyond raw makes and attempts from distance. Even Coach Beckner said there are a few indicators he likes to evaluate when projecting shooting forward.
“The two I believe in are free throws and floaters,” said Coach Beckner. “They show a level of hand-eye coordination and depth perception instinctively that players might have in them. We also have it with our clients to where you’re going to let us coach you on your shot selection. You have to watch on tape whether the attempts are good or bad misses.”
That last point is strictly on tape in terms of evaluating whether a player is selecting the right shots to take and how poor the misses are. Dunn’s lack of success on those fronts is different in comparison to evaluating him against a ball-dominant pull-up shooter, but it’s important to help bring into context as well.
The prior thought regarding what CAN be seen on paper in regards to free throw and floater percentages has always stuck out to me, and I want to provide some numbers behind Dunn’s shooting in college per Synergy Sports.
2022-23 UVA Season:
63 Total Field Goal Attempts, 33 Total Makes (52.4%)
25-of-36 Shots At the Rim (69.4%)
0-of-2 Runners
15 Dunks
2023-24 UVA Season:
209 Total Field Goal Attempts, 114 Total Makes (54.5%)
90-of-134 Shots At the Rim (67.2%)
8-of-13 Runners (61.5%)
36 Dunks
These stats only further back up that there was something there in terms of how effective of a finisher Dunn was in college, as well as what his “touch” was on tougher looks in the paint like floaters and runners.
Look, the signs were there to an extent in terms of not going nuclear when discussing Dunn’s overall NBA transition. Where I went wrong as a scout and why I wasn’t as thrilled about his overall offensive prospects was that I ignored too much of the context. Yes, some of Dunn’s shots were mechanically funky, as pointed out above, but there’s A LOT that goes into shooting projection that I was either reminded of or learned from Coach Beckner.
So, to answer the main question of this entire article: yes, I do believe Dunn’s shooting leap is sustainable. The shot is completely different, the touch always existed, and he’s in the perfect context to keep developing both personally and because of the team and environment around him.
Ryan Dunn’s story is as unique as any, and I’m thrilled it’s taking shape far earlier than expected at this point in the NBA season.
All statistics and video used are courtesy of Synergy Sports, Basketball-Reference, and Dunks and Threes