January 2026 Scouting Roundtable
The No Ceilings crews gathers for a roundtable discussion of the 2026 NBA Draft, including risers, fallers, and the games to watch out for in the weeks ahead.
The college basketball season is heating up, as conference play soldiers on and the top teams in the country are hoping to put everything together before the bright lights of March start to shine.
With some of the top freshmen in the country putting on elite performances over the last few days, we here at No Ceilings wanted to regroup a bit in terms of the 2026 NBA Draft. Without further ado, here is our roundtable discussion of the state of the draft landscape as January 2026 draws to a close.
1. Which player has been the biggest riser on your board in the past month?
Stephen: I would have to go with Amari Allen. He’s been on my radar for a while, but the production has only improved as the season has progressed. He is the best rebounder on his team as a freshman wing. He is second on his team in assists. He’s also the third-leading scorer on the team. Doing all of this while having a Block Percentage of 3.0 and a Steal Percentage of 2.1 as a 6’8” freshman has been remarkable.
Nick: I talked about moving him up my board earlier this month, but I have to go with Flory Bidunga here. He proved everything I could have wanted him to prove when Darryn Peterson was out; his passing flashes from last season have turned into some really impressive playmaking this season, and his ability to jump out of any gym remains. I’ve bumped him into my first round after having him as a late second rounder previously, and I feel pretty good about it.
Paige: Morez Johnson Jr. is my biggest riser over the past month. The 6’9” 255-pound Michigan sophomore forward with a 7’3” wingspan is an incredible rim-finisher, has a relentless motor, provides defensive versatility, and impacts the game through every possession. I saw Michigan in-person earlier this month, and Morez Johnson Jr. has every intangible that screams modern NBA two-way forward. He’s also a very adept leader and puts 110% effort into every plan on both sides of the floor. He’s just an incredible winning impact player for any organization. The three-point shot isn’t there yet, but combined with his near-70% field-goal percentage and 2FG%, along with his 78% free-throw percentage, his offensive upside is also incredibly enticing.
Rucker: This is Amari Allen for me. I finally got caught up on a lengthy amount of film with the Alabama freshman, and there’s A LOT to like. Not only has Allen shown fantastic flashes on the offensive side of the ball when it comes to his floor spacing and playmaking, but he’s also shown a legit knack for the basketball on the glass. For a draft class that is lacking a little bit of depth when it comes to wing/forward combos, Allen should be a legit riser in NBA circles as well.
Metcalf: Keaton Wagler pretty easily for me. I’ve had him in the first round for a while, but one of my big concerns was the lack of strength and how that would limit him early in his career. The more I watch, though, the more impressed I get with his composure, improved counters, and feel. He’s easily moved from a potential one-and-done guy to a Top 10 lock for me.
Rowan: Blame it on the winter storm obstructing my view, other players performing louder, or whatever reason makes me look better: one way or another, it’s taken me too long to give Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. the flowers he deserves in this draft class. It’s impressive to be both a glue guy and a jack-of-all-trades for a team as good as the Wolverines, but Johnson Jr. makes it look easy. He puts in the maximum effort on both ends of the floor, locks up opposing players with physicality and grit, and always makes the right play on the offensive end. He might not have the flashiest highlight tape, but the little things that Johnson Jr. does well will move the needle for NBA evaluators.
2. Which player has been the biggest faller on your board in the past month?
Stephen: I’m worried that I’m just going to be one of a few that will pile on him here, but it’s going to be Neoklis Avdalas for me. There is going to be some sort of “bet” made on him with the size and feel he has, but he has been far too inconsistent as a scorer at any level. He’s below 40% efficiency from the floor, below 30% from deep, and below 70% from the free-throw line. He has a pretty benign free-throw rate and rebounding metrics. If you value Steal Percentages as a sign of court awareness and intelligence, he has a percentage of 1.3. Again, benign. I could understand a team taking a bet on what he could be in the latter portion of the first round, but I don’t have him in my Top 30 any longer.
Nick: I held out on dropping him for longer than I should have, but I’ve officially moved Shon Abaev off my board. I still believe in him in the longer-term, but he has a lot to figure out on the offensive end before he can be in draftable range on my board.
Paige: Miles Byrd for me. He’s been all over the place for me this year. I talked about him earlier this season on Deep Dives, and he has struggled for the majority of his junior year compared to his last six games. I want a little bit more consistency before I move him up again, as his 18.6 AST%, 5.0 BLK%, and 4.3 STL% this season is an insane combination for a 3-and-D wing who is 6’7” and 175 pounds. However, his sub-55% rim finishing, iffy shot selection, size, and three-point consistency give me conflict on where to have him on my board at this time.
Rucker: Virginia Tech freshmen Neoklis Avdalas for me. After a 33-point outing against Providence in the opening months of the year, Avdalas was buzzing as a player who could make some legit noise in the draft scene. The problem is, Avdalas has had an extremely favorable schedule since then, and we haven’t gotten nearly as close to the flashes from before. You never want to get too high or too low from one outing. But as time goes on, you can’t hang your hat too much on a “heater” of a day. Avdalas hasn’t created much rim pressure, and this class just has so much depth that he could be one that slips a bit.
Metcalf: Dame Sarr has been tough for me. His defense and physical tools rock, but the offense has been so far from what I hoped to see this year. He’s become less than an afterthought on that end, and I was really hoping to see a lot more secondary and transition creation. Unfortunately, he’s really only been out there for his defense. The defense has been great, but I need more from him if he’s legitimately going to be a first round guy.
Rowan: It’s harder to know when to strike the iron when hottest these days from a draft stock perspective. NIL takes away the real need for Tahaad Pettiford to leave Auburn to get paid for his basketball talents, but his sophomore season has hurt him enough that I’ve dropped him down past what his past season’s accolades can save. He’s had a hard time topping double-digits in scoring despite his past prodigious scoring; he hasn’t been as efficient a scorer, and is starting to shrink due to his smaller size as a lead guard. When compared to the star freshman guards of this year, especially, it’s hard to even argue that a team should use a second-round pick on Pettiford in this draft class.
3. Every prospect goes through ups and downs on the court. Sometimes, a hot streak is a run of good luck; other times, it’s sustainable growth. Which prospect on a hot streak stood out to you? Is it real, or a mirage?
Stephen: For me, it’s Nate Ament. He had his best game against Alabama, sans Amari Allen. In his last four games, Ament has averaged 21. PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 BPG, and 0.5 SPG–with shooting splits of 48/39/83. This stretch included games against Florida, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Bama. It’s interesting how much his season has felt like the Ousmane Dieng season in the NBL, where Dieng was a promising prospect, showed startling signs early, and improved as the season continued. I’m more inclined to believe the shooting is real, despite him being a 29.3% shooter from deep on the season. This is because of his priors. The defense continues to be alarming for a player of his size, so that does feel more real. Part of what makes him more compelling now as opposed to earlier in the season, is that he is beginning to look more confident attacking the paint. I’ll need to see that continue, though, to believe that it is real.
Nick: I talked about this with Paige on Deep Dives recently, but I’m fully bought in to the leap that Christian Anderson Jr. has taken this year overall and lately in particular. He has such a special ability to dribble and/or pass his way out of impossible situations, which makes me all the more confident in him to be able to do damage on the offensive end, even if he isn’t going 8-of-10 from three-point range.
Paige: I’m with Nick on this one. Christian Anderson Jr. has been on fire recently, and it’s real. His level of shot-making, three-point range, playmaking ability, high feel, and pace he plays with all scream NBA point guard. His processing ability is special—as is the way he gets out of time-sensitive situations to set up Texas Tech for their best chance to win time and time again.
Rucker: I’m with Stephen on this one. It’s going to be Nate Ament for me. As someone who has been very skeptical of the elite buzz Ament was getting preseason, I am very much hoping that the “switch” has flipped for the Tennessee freshmen. Ament has started to put forth some solid showings, which is why we say you wait and take in an entire year of evaluation (not just react to one game). There are a couple of upcoming big showdowns for Ament, and I want to see if he can build off an impressive Alabama showing, where he looked completely different as a player, as he was assertive and full of confidence. If we can get another couple of games like the ‘Bama performance, Nate will be a very popular name once again. If not, he’s been a very cold name in NBA circles.
Metcalf: Brayden Burries has been playing some really fun basketball. He was always a streaky shooter in high school, and I would kind of expect that to continue. However, we’re seeing the rest of the game slow down for him a ton, and the value of his positional strength. Burries is finding ways to consistently impact winning with his scoring, defense, playmaking, and rebounding. He doesn’t always have the sexiest production or numbers, but his impact on the game is becoming undeniable. The fact that his impact has been largely process-based is really encouraging for the rest of the season and future development.
Rowan: Conference play is often considered an important indicator of whether a prospect can scale up their game. If that’s the case, then Arkansas’s Darius Acuff Jr. is certainly passing that test with flying colors. He’s been a near-20 point scorer for the whole month, has paced the Razorbacks to ranked wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt, and has looked the part of an all-level scorer at one of the most necessary positions to be one. Acuff Jr. has also done a splendid job of spreading the wealth with his passing, keeping his teammates involved at a premium pace. It may seem like a hot streak, but I’m buying Acuff Jr. as a lottery-level point guard prospect.
4. On the flip side, even the best prospects go through cold spells. One of our favorite sayings at No Ceilings (courtesy of Tyler Rucker) is “it just takes time.” Which prospect are you being patient with this month?
Stephen: This is a bit of a tricky question to answer. It’s partially because almost everyone has been good. Even though Mikel Brown Jr. had a fantastic returning game after dealing with back problems, I’m going to continue to be patient with him. We saw Jayden Quaintaince have a good returning game for Kentucky earlier this season, then struggle, and then reaggravate his injury. Sure, an ACL is different from a back injury, but Mikel warming up with a back brace wasn’t the most encouraging visual. As the physical output increases, I just want to be careful not to just expect 20-point outings on 64% efficiency for his next game.
Nick: Hannes Steinbach’s three-point percentage has fallen off pretty dramatically since the calendar turned over to 2026; he has shot 20.0% from deep in January following his worst offensive game of the season against Oregon. However, I’m not really worried about it; for one, it’s a tiny sample size, and for two, he’s still been dominant in the paint and on the glass. The low volume of shots from distance is more concerning to me than the lack of success, to be honest, but I’m holding out hope for him to pick his shooting back up to close out the season.
Paige: Donovan Dent has started to come back to his usual self for UCLA over the past few games after being up and down through the first two months of the season. I’m still a huge believer in Dent; I think his battling a calf injury all year long and reaggravating it this year has a lot to do with his production this year at UCLA. I’m being patient and think the best is yet to come for Dent throughout conference play.
Rucker: In 1981, Journey released “Don’t Stop Believin’.” It was a song about hope and dreams. That’s pretty much how I’ve continued to feel about Arkansas freshman Meleek Thomas. I don’t see Meleek as just a microwave scorer. I think there’s something with Thomas’s game to unlock; it just remains to be seen how long it will take before that happens consistently. When Thomas has been on this year, he’s been outstanding for the Razorbacks. After a month that saw him hit a real cold spell, where he averaged 12.5 PPG on splits of 33/37, Meleek has bounced back in a big way and is currently averaging 15.0 PTS, 3.4 REB, 2.9 AST, and 2.0 STL in his last seven games while shooting 48/53. I still think Meleek could be a potential climber in this class. But I want to see if he can stay consistent with his play on the court in the second half of the season.
Metcalf: Neoklis Avdalas has been pretty rough recently against a lackluster schedule. He’s definitely dropped on my board, but I can’t totally quit him yet. I’m getting close, but I want just a few more weeks before I completely rip the band-aid off. Avdalas has awesome flashes, but he disappears far too easily and far too often. That’s simply inexcusable for a player with his skill at his size. Avdalas has the tools to be a lottery guy, but his lack of consistent impact is troublesome—especially since he just went through a month or two of games where he should’ve been putting up bonkers numbers.
Rowan: Yaxel Lendeborg of Michigan hasn’t had the best scoring month, which has cast a bit of cold water on his overall NBA projections, but I’m both willing to wait and unmoved by a shooting slump given what he should do well at the next level. Despite having some trouble hitting from deep and needing extra volume to get his scoring numbers, none of the other parts of Lendeborg’s game have suffered in that span. Lendeborg is still locking up other players, moving the ball crisply in Michigan’s high-powered offense, and is still doing the little things on both ends to keep the Wolverines’ winning ways alive and well. Thus, a little bit of a tough scoring stretch hasn’t led me to move him from firmly in the first round of the 2026 draft class.
5. Which game next month are you most excited to watch?
Stephen: I’ll go with the Michigan/Duke game on February 21st. As of today, both teams are Top 5 teams, so that appeals to the “true” college basketball fans. On top of that, there are some serious implications for draft stock in this game. Is Yaxel Lendeborg or Morez Johnson going to get the Cam Boozer assignment? Should they do relatively well, that could bolster their standing. Conversely, Cam putting up a strong performance could do a lot for his #1 overall pick case. Aday Mara vs. Patrick Ngongba could also provide more clarity to the big man standings within this class.
Nick: February 7th, Duke vs. UNC. Sure, it’s an easy answer, but I cannot wait to see the Cam Boozer/Caleb Wilson face-off.
Paige: Michigan at Michigan State this Saturday, January 31st, in East Lansing. This Top 8 Rivalry Matchup is going to feed families. Yes, I’m a Michigan State alumnus, so I might have some bias to this matchup—but I can’t wait for Coen Carr to go head-to-head with Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr., who are both Top 20 guys for me. I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Aday Mara and how he guards Jaxson Kohler and Carson Cooper with their pick-and-pop ability. I’m not as high on Mara as some of the other No Ceilings guys are—his perimeter defense really concerns me, so I’ll be watching how he adjusts to the Spartans duo’s pick-and-pop ability. Michigan State’s defense has also been ranked #1 since the beginning of January, per BartTorvik. The Spartans have been dominant, and Michigan is their biggest challenge yet.
Rucker: BYU vs. Kansas. I don’t care about the rules of the question. Okay, fine. I’ll be traveling to Tucson on 2/18 to see BYU @ Arizona. So yeah, guess you could say it’s pretty serious.
Metcalf: I’m cheating a little bit here since it’s 1/31, but BYU vs Kansas. AJ Dybantsa vs. Darryn Peterson. SIGN ME UP. I swear, if one of these guys doesn’t play…
Rowan: It feels like cheating to choose a Big 12 game given their glut of matchups, but to me, Houston vs. BYU offers the most intrigue. It won’t be a one-man show for AJ Dybantsa against the vaunted Cougars defense, but he’s already shown a takeover mode that may be needed to pull the upset. Elsewhere, Kingston Flemings will have his hands full working against the mix of guards that BYU has on its roster, with it serving as another big opportunity for him to cement himself as the best point guard in the draft class.
Spot on about Amari Allen's rebounding ability for a freshman wing. That 3.0 BLK% at 6'8" is pretty wild too, and it means he can probably guard multiple positions which is huuge for draft stock. I remember seeing wings with those metrics get bumped up boards quick once NBA teams start realizing the defensive versatility at that size.