Jaylin Williams is a Sleeper Agent...For Now

Sometimes a player slips through the cracks of the draft for good reasons. Sometimes, however, a prospect like Jaylin Williams deserves much more hype than he's received so far.

Even in June, when most draft scouting is done and the dust has settled, a prospect can sneak up on you and send a shockwave through your board. Maybe you’d watched some of them earlier in the season before an injury; maybe they were given unexpected eligibility. Whatever the reason, despite the collective best efforts, it’s never too late in a cycle to find one’s world turned upside down.

That’s less an indictment of a particular scout or writer, or at least that’s what I tell myself to sleep better at night. It’s almost impossible to watch every play for every draft-eligible player in the NCAA, much less internationally. That leaves some blind spots where opportunistic players can sneak into the forefront of one’s mind.

Often, that comes from the combined process. Whether the NBA Draft Combine, Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, or even the G League Elite Camp, a good game in front of the right eyes can be the difference between being under the radar and bursting onto the scene; at times, however, not getting invited to one of these camps may revive a player’s hype machine.

That was the case for Jaylin Williams, one of the Auburn Tigers’s best players this past season. Surprisingly, Williams was not invited to any preseason combines, leaving him out of the chance to make a bigger name for himself. Some speculation is warranted of whether this was intentional, as certain teams don’t want the word to get out on how good Jaylin Williams is.

I’ve dubbed Jaylin Williams, the soon-to-be third of his namesake in the NBA, as a “sleeper agent” for this class. No, I don’t think Williams will hear a specific string of numbers and activate his clandestine orders. Instead, with a relative lack of buzz, I can’t believe Williams isn’t rocketing up more draft boards and knocking on the door of serious draft consideration.

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Decrypting the Counter Intelligence: Background Info

If you’ve been watching SEC basketball in the 2020s, you’ve probably watched Jaylin Williams at least a few times. Williams came to Auburn not as a consensus Top 100 recruit but as the fourth-highest-ranked player in all of Georgia. He played sparingly as a freshman before watching his role fluctuate as a sophomore and junior.

After starting almost every game alongside Sharife Cooper, Allen Flannigan, and JT Thor, Williams accepted a bench role with the arrival of Jabari Smith. Instead of transferring out for greener pastures, Williams bought into the change, which reduced his counting stats and minutes. As a senior, having watched both Smith and Walker Kessler head to the NBA, Williams reclaimed his starting spot and kept a stranglehold on it as a senior and graduate student.

It’s a testament to who Williams is as a person and a player that he accepted his smaller role. In the era of transfers and transactions, it’s easy to hear the siren song of some other squad and leave. Instead, Williams dug in, earned academic honors from Auburn, but most importantly, earned the trust of Bruce Pearl, which helped him return to the starting lineup.

Over his past two seasons, Williams has missed just one game while upping his averages across the board. After collecting the most career games played and wins in Auburn history, Williams put together his most noteworthy season this year and cemented himself on fringe NBA radars. He put up 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game, all while slashing a career-high 65.9% from two-point range and a career-high 39.5% from deep while giving up just 1.1 turnovers per contest.

It’s more than the counting stats for Williams, however. He’s a do-it-all forward for the Tigers, and Bruce Pearl plugged him into any role that the team needed. Guard the best player? Williams was there for guys like Kel’el Ware and Dalton Knecht. Keep the ball moving? He consistently made the right choice. Get the team supercharged with a skyscraping dunk or backbreaking three? Williams was right there to do so.

When players are jacks-of-all-trades, it can be hard to pin down specific skills that make them NBA draft prospects. For Williams, who boasts plus wingspan on a chiseled 6’8” frame, his athleticism and how it impacts his play stands out. The mixture of mind and might makes him a monster, as he puts himself in the right place at the right time to use his athletic gifts to maximum effect.

That’s what makes Williams such an interesting player to consider in this draft class. With so much uncertainty towards the end of the draft, there’s room for a sleeper agent to slaughter a workout or three and be a surprising name called. Based on his stellar play that’s still slipped through the cracks, Jaylin Williams is poised to make a major impact for an NBA team early on in his tenure as a role player.

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An Inside Job: Interior Offense and Defense

When looking at what Jaylin Williams does so well on a basketball court, it’s what is on the inside that counts. The inside of the court, that is. Whether it’s easy buckets on offense or stout interior defense, Williams has found a way to make a profound impact on both ends without having prototypical height.

Let’s start on the defensive end. Williams stands at 6’8” with a longer wingspan while boasting a stocky 245-pound frame, but that’s still short for interior defense. Instead of height, his strength, timing, and verticality make Williams effective as a rim defender.

He’s had at least a 2.9% block percentage in each of his five seasons. While the number has trickled down from its initial high watermark of 5.4% as a freshman and sophomore, the talent hasn’t disappeared. Jaylin Williams has hops for days that help him contest shots and the type of reach that leads to highlight-worthy blocks.

You won’t confuse Williams for some sort of defensive anchor, nor as a designated weakside windshield wiper, but he’s a great auxiliary shot-blocker for his future NBA team. The types of blocks he excels at, whether chase downs or recovery swats, are the type of found money that make good defenses great. Combined with the rest of Williams’s defensive package, which I’ll explore on the outside, he does a lot to raise the defensive floor.

On offense, the rim was where Jaylin Williams made a marked impact for an offense. When you combine his rim attempts and hook shots, per Synergy, Williams took 156 of his 266 shots, or 58.6%, right at the cup. He earned an “Excellent” ranking for both types of shots, although only one came conventionally.

There’s no better way to describe Williams’s finishing talent than wonky regarding lay-ups and post-moves. No, that isn’t an insult. Instead, it represents that he’s simply an unusual finisher with how he contorts his body and arms in midair to avoid contests and still finish. It didn’t matter how fast he was going or what direction he faced when he leaped; all that mattered was how Williams could consistently flip and heave up rim attempts that fluttered their way down the chute.

While it would be more pleasant for the eyes to watch Williams get some easier looks, it’s hard to argue against the cold, hard numbers that show his prowess. A 57.8% mark on hook shots and 74.8% efficiency on lay-ups are both figures that should translate well to the NBA, given his height and wingspan. When combined with his 66.7% efficiency on putbacks, albeit on low volume, it’s clear that Jaylin Williams has a knack for finishing at the rim.

That’s before we’ve even gotten to his dunks. Two ideas must be juxtaposed to articulate how fun and impressive a dunker Williams is. First, Jaylin Williams has an innate sense of space by the basket. Whether on a cut, quick duck-in, slip, or rebound, Williams puts himself in the right place at the right time to get a glut of close shots.

The other part is less cerebral and analytical but no less important: Jaylin Williams is one of this draft class’s best in-game vertical athletes. He has trampolines wedged in his sneakers that quickly deploy in the event of an open lane. Williams can even rise and detonate when a defender is in his way, leading to an important safety announcement: if you see Williams coming your way with any head of steam, it’s best to get out of the way or suffer the consequences.

With so many monster jams in the halfcourt and transition, Williams exists in a special class of dunkers in this draft class. He was one of just 15 players last season in the NCAA who had at least 35 dunks on a >65% True Shooting mark, numbers that speak to the talent and ferocity of Williams’s dunking.

Since almost all NBA players can throw down a dunk in transition, the other throwdowns in Jaylin Williams’s arsenal look like viable NBA weapons. His innate sense of cutting timing will get him a bevy of easy buckets, while his ability to elevate over defenders with ease will buy him easy buckets. Just think about how Derrick Jones Jr. did with an alley-oop artist like Luka at his disposal.

Jaylin Williams brings enough punch on the inside on defense to earn him some props, but the more impactful part of his inside prominence comes on offense. All of the looks that he gets are easy and in the flow of the game, which speaks well to his ability to replicate his Auburn success in the NBA. 

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Deep Cover: Perimeter Offense and Defense

If Jaylin Williams were a center and not a small-ball power forward, his proficiency on the perimeter wouldn’t matter as much. Since he’s 6’8”, however, the need to be a skilled perimeter defender and floor spacer is key to his future success. If either one is lackluster, the inside dominance will be for nothing.

Luckily, Williams is just as skilled on the perimeter on defense, if not more so, while having some solid shooting touch to draw just enough attention from the opposition. As a defender, Williams plays with a great motor and never gives up on plays, which helps him secure contested balls and win his team a few extra possessions per game.

He doesn’t have a gaudy steal percentage, weighing in at 1.6% in his graduate season, but he’s a handsy defender who knows when to reach in and when to gamble. Despite playing close to the same minutes per game as last season, Williams reduced his fouls per contest, which speaks to a more disciplined and less risky approach to generating turnovers.

While his steal numbers did go down from last year, most NBA teams would rather have dependability over volatility. There’s certainly value in defenders who leap out of the shadows to force live-ball turnovers, but the quieter killer is a solid perimeter stopper who knows when to slide their feet and when to play the lanes. After five years of refining his craft, Williams has settled into playing the best perimeter defense of his career.

It’s clear whether he’s guarding off-ball movement or staying in front of players on the ball. Sure, there are times when Williams is flat-footed, but he rarely makes a poor contest and instead jumps at the right time to harry a shot. Similarly, when guarding a ball handler, he does his best to mirror their footwork and force them to give the ball up or let his length do the talking.

Williams does get driven by a few too many times, but part of that seemed to be a function of Auburn’s defensive game plan. With Johni Broome or Dylan Cardwell waiting at the hoop, Williams could get a late contest or block while helping to gang rebound a miss. He’ll need to get a bit lower in his defensive stance when he plays in the NBA, but he’s shown enough both on and off the ball to warrant minutes as a defender.

Being a great defender is all good in the NBA, but the days of a potential player like Andre Roberson are gone. If a prospect can’t hit shots from deep at a consistent clip, they won’t see the floor often. Despite a shooting motion that’s less than standard and a lack of volume for undeniable proof, there’s enough on paper and film to feel cautiously optimistic about how Jaylin Williams can space the floor.

You notice Williams’s shooting motion the first time you see him shoot the ball. The bottom half looks fine, with some solid up-and-down and height on his jump. The upper half, however, is where the fun begins. Jaylin Williams seems to contort his arms to the left side of his body and use both hands in a way that looks unnatural and unlikely to hit the bottom of the net.

And yet, as a fifth-year player, it often did. On 86 attempts from deep, Jaylin Williams shot 39.5% on 2.5 attempts per game. When lumping in his numbers from last season, where he hit 116 three-pointers and made 40 of them, Williams overall shot 74/199 from deep in his second stint as a starter or a crispy 37.2% from beyond the arc.

It sure isn’t pretty, but you can’t argue with the numbers and efficiency behind his success. Combined with his free-throw percentage and solid career mark of 77.6%, there are enough positive indicators for me to label Jaylin Williams as at least an above-average shooter from deep.

He wouldn’t be the first player to eschew convention and splash shots with a singular shooting stroke, so you’ve got to push past the initial awe at how he shoots it. Instead, NBA teams will likely note just how well Williams hit the mark from deep when determining whether he can play in their system. 

With great shooting numbers and inside finishing, there’s not a lot that Jaylin Williams can’t do as an off-ball scorer. No team will expect him to be a creator, as that was never his role. Still, his ability to finish plays on the inside and outside gives him immediate pathways to playing valuable NBA minutes sooner than later in his career.

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Beyond the Window Dressing: Growth Areas

It makes intuitive sense that most of what I’ve talked about with Jaylin Williams is a finished product. As a graduate playing his fifth season under the same head coach, he’s already grown greatly since he stepped foot at Auburn. Still, there are a few layers that Williams can peel back to reveal the full scope of his game with the right development.

The first major area is his ability to switch on defense. Since Auburn played 3.2% of their defensive possessions in a zone, there were many chances to see Williams switching onto other players outside of a zone format. When watching him on longer possessions in man-to-man defense, it’s apparent that there’s a version of Jaylin Williams who can almost guard 1-5.

It wouldn’t be wise to continually throw Jaylin Williams at point guards or centers, but that’s not the point. His real utility lies in his ability to fight through screens, stay connected to quicker players, and hold his own against post beefiness—sometimes all on the same possession. 

Smart NBA squads that love to switch actions should consider bringing Williams into the fold to see if he could play a key role in their system. While it may take a few years to truly perfect, as it usually does with young players, the results could be marvelous for a team that fully helps unlock his sleeper switching abilities.

Just as important for teams to have Jaylin Williams develop is his passing. He’s already a good passer on paper, having topped a 1.50 assist-to-turnover ratio in his past two seasons, but there could still be some areas to hone in on to get the most out of his dishing talents.

Let’s start with what Williams is good at as a passer first. Auburn would often run sets to get him into the middle of the floor, about a step into the paint, and then let him pick apart the defense. Williams showed the wherewithal to snap passes out to waiting shooters and to drop them down to the big men by each block, which gave him a place to start in the NBA.

He also didn’t let the ball stick in his hands when he was on the perimeter. Rather, Williams likes to whip his passes with a lot of pace to his waiting teammates for a three-pointer. On tape, each dish looks almost too hot to handle, but there was never a lazy swing of the ball around the horn to get an open shot, which speaks to the decision-making and purpose of Williams as a passer.

On occasion, Williams would get the ball around the wing or on an inbounds play to hit a backdoor. When his number was called, he frequently nailed the tough pocket passes, hitting his cutters in stride or placing the ball just out of reach for a defender but right where his teammate needed it to have the best chance to score in close.

What’s important to note with all of Jaylin Williams’s assist types is that they’re predetermined for him. Sure, the decision-making and placement of the passes is a direct credit to Williams, but he was rarely tasked with creating his chances out of thin air. It’s hard to become a self-creator this late in one’s career, but when tracking his turnovers, two trends speak to his issue with creation.

It’s worth mentioning that, in his past two years starting for Auburn, Jaylin Williams had a minuscule 10.7% and 11.1% turnover percentage as a solid usage starter. Still, looking at how he turned the ball over is the best way to diagnose what he can change to be a better passer at the next level.

Williams’s first major source of turnovers was daring drives to the rim. He fumbled the ball without a plus handle or got dry-ripped by players when he didn’t know exactly what he wanted to do. The second major source was home run passes, where Williams stared down his receiver for too long or tried to float the ball improperly.

Neither type of turnover is a death knell for Williams as a potential defense bender from the first part of an action, but it does illuminate his room to grow. Williams could become a truly low-turnover player if he can keep making 0.5 decisions on drives and not get himself into trouble. 

With enough work on his touch passes and less reliance on bullet feeds, Williams could also warrant more of the same actions in the NBA that he thrived on at Auburn. It won’t come early, as most of his passes will be simple reads in the flow of the offense, but in due time, Williams could become the type of glue guy for a team that elevates both their floor and ceiling.

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Jaylin Williams, Declassified

If you’re drafting for a star and swinging for the fences, Jaylin Williams probably isn’t your best bet. If an NBA team is looking for a player who will selflessly accept whatever role they give him and excel, however, Williams is much more up that alley. That speaks to his all-around versatile play on both ends, which is hard to come by in any draft class, much less in the 2024 crop.

It’s not an insult to say that Williams could be an ideal role-playing forward at the next level. He can finish with force on the inside, hit shots from deep to keep defenses honest, make quick decisions on passes, and guard inside and out. When combined with plus athleticism vertically and horizontally, that mixture of skills provides the outlines of only effective archetypes.

Compared to some of the more specialized prospects in the class, it’s hard to imagine that any NBA wouldn’t want a switchable player like Williams on their team. NBA teams can never have enough shooting and defense, and with a player like Jaylin Williams, they wouldn’t have to wait at all to get it.

That gives Williams a pretty safe floor for making an NBA roster and a sturdy ceiling for playing a key role, whether initially starting or off the bench. Every player takes some time to adjust to the pace of the NBA. Still, given he’s already willingly shifted between starting and playing off of the pine, there’s little doubt that Williams would be willing to do the same for a professional team tomorrow.

That’s what makes the fact that Jaylin Williams is flying under the radar so hard to believe. He’s a sleeper agent only by name, as I’m sure multiple NBA teams have their eyes on him and his varied skill set. Jaylin Williams stands out amongst the other prospects this year as one of the few players who can truly fit onto any roster in any system due to his skills, which makes him likely to sneak up on unsuspecting fan bases and give them a new favorite role player to cheer for quicker than they ever expected.