Jaylon Tyson: On The Rise

California Golden Bears guard Jaylon Tyson has continued to buzz throughout the 2023-24 NCAA season. Now, Tyson has cemented himself as a sleeper ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft.

Evaluators know the challenges that are presented with each draft class.

We openly welcome an invitation to dedicate our lives to poring through draft film on a concerning level for most of the calendar year.

We make lists.

We realize we hate the list we just made.

We scrap those lists and start from scratch, hoping to prevent any midnight inner debates about the order we just placed players in.

This one thing happens with every draft class. It doesn’t matter how calculated you are or what type of process you go through. It seems to happen regardless of your strategy.

You find a player that keeps making you turn on the tape.

Sometimes, this can be a player that you simply can’t get a firm grasp on. You can be struggling to buy in, which requires you to step away and take a minute to reevaluate before diving back into the deep in. After further investigations, you find yourself getting on board with the potential of this player.

But then there’s another level to this obsession. You’ve evaluated the film before and found yourself “in” on that player’s upside. But something doesn’t feel right…

So you need another look.

And another.

And how about another?

Each time you turn on the film, you find something else you’re starting to get intrigued with. You suddenly notice that this player has continued to climb up your board throughout the entire cycle.

“Am I getting crazy?”

“How high is too high to put them on my board?”

That’s when the best inner debate presents itself for a prospect in any cycle.

“What if I’m all-in on this kid and I just don’t realize it yet?”

That last question continues to haunt me like a cold chill running up my spine in the darkest hour of the night.

That’s where California Golden Bears junior Jaylon Tyson comes into the picture.

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The 6’7” wing has had an interesting path throughout his collegiate career. Tyson started out his freshman year at Texas, playing eight games before eventually transferring to Texas Tech for his sophomore year. With the Red Raiders, Tyson averaged 10.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 40.2% from three-point range on 3.5 attempts per game.

Tyson made the decision to hit the transfer portal again, suiting up for the Golden Bears for the 2023-24 season. He had the offensive tools to be an intriguing sleeper to keep an eye on throughout the year. But that’s when Tyson hit the ground running for Cal and never looked back.

After his first six games of the year, Tyson was averaging 20.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. During that span, Tyson shot 44.4% from the field and 31.2% from downtown.

Tyson saw the percentages start to climb over his next six games. In the month of December, Jaylon averaged 19.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 50.6% from the field and 32.1% from three.

That was followed up by his best month of the year. Over the following seven-game stretch, Tyson averaged 22.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 50.9% from the field and 46.7% from three on 4.3 attempts.

2022-23 w/ Texas Tech Red Raiders

• 10.7 PTS, 6.1 REB, 1.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.4 BLK

• 48.3 FG%, 40.2 3P%, 72.3 FT%

• 8.5 FGA, 3.5 3PA, 1.5 FTA

• 31 G, 28.9 MIN

2023-24 w/ California Golden Bears

• 19.6 PTS, 6.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.5 BLK

• 46.5 FG%, 36.0 3P%, 79.6 FT%

• 15.4 FGA, 4.5 3PA, 4.6 FTA

• 31 G, 34.3 MIN

It quickly became evident that Tyson had cemented himself as a legit name for the 2024 class, but a dive into the numbers started to raise some interesting questions.

There have been plenty of questions surrounding the 2024 NBA draft. The top of the class has resulted in a WIDE range of opinions depending on who you talk to around the league. At that same time, there’s a reason why teams are intrigued with some of the depth that this class has to offer. One of those players generating intrigue is Tyson, a 6’7” wing who has shown the offensive versatility to be a dynamic weapon on the floor.

During the 2022-23 season, Tyson spent time in a different role compared to this previous year at Cal. His role focused more on his play off the ball, which can be shown by his advanced numbers (via Synergy).

Texas Tech Red Raiders (2022-23)

• Spot Up : 58th Percentile (26.8% of time)

• P&R Ball Handler: 50th percentile (26.2%)

• Transition: 94th Percentile (14.0%)

• Cut: 97th Percentile (5.4%)

• Jump Shot: 81st Percentile (57.2%)

• Dribble Jumper: 70th Percentile (47.0%)

• Catch & Shoot: 90th percentile (50.3%)

• At Rim: 88th percentile (32.6%)

Fast forward to this previous season, and Cal allowed Jaylon to become a demon as a pick-and-roll threat. They put the ball in his hands whenever possible, allowing his versatility as a scorer and decision-maker to be on full display. One of the most promising developments for projecting a transition to the next level is if you can stand out in areas that the NBA would welcome. Being a dynamic weapon in the P&R game is a promising development to take note of.

California Golden Bears (2023-24)

• P&R Ball Handler: 83rd Percentile (35.1% of time)

• Spot Up: 50th Percentile (10.6%)

• Transition: 68th Percentile (9.5%)

• Isolation: 66th Percentile (9.1%)

• Cut: 50th Percentile (7.5%)

• Jump Shot: 64th Percentile (40.7%)

• Dribble Jumper: 76th percentile (69.4%)

• Catch & Shoot: 64th Percentile (29.6%)

• At Rim: 51st Percentile (43.9%)

There are always some areas that require additional attention. Role, system, and fit are always crucial to take into consideration when trying to match the tape to the advanced numbers. Take into consideration the fact that Tyson finished in the 81st percentile at Texas Tech in jump shot opportunities, but that number dropped to the 64th percentile at Cal—the reason being that Tyson spent more time with the ball in his hands, which can be seen by the massive jump in dribble jumper attempts (47% of the time to 69.4% at Cal.)

Tyson was the engine that kept the Golden Bears running. He showed the ability to be a three-level scorer while also making impressive reads out of the pick-and-roll. If the outside shot can continue to be consistent, he has the offensive versatility to be a welcomed addition at the next level.

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FILM

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FINDING THE LANE

Jaylon Tyson off the dribble is like hearing your favorite musician get their solo spotlight in a live performance. Not only does Tyson have some impressive counters in his arsenal, but he has the determination to wear you down with his sequences. Even when you think you’ve got him cut off on his initial attack, Tyson seems to generate energy as if you just pissed off the Hulk.

There’s an understanding with his attack. Some players would look to immediately get the ball moving once their first move is walled off. Tyson instead starts to calculate his next sequence like a brainiac weaving his way through a complex formula. Players with high feel recognize the importance of a specific angle. They show the patience to set up that defender with a slight hesitation to improve their potential window to attack.

CREATE YOUR SPACE

Another great demonstration here of just how Jaylon can use his change of gears off the bounce to create space. Setting up a defender is an art. The defense is already trying to anticipate your next move. So what can you do to quickly turn their head into a pretzel?

That’s where Tyson thrives. He will hit you with a dribble sequence that’s purpose is to set up the following sequence. Once he gets your body drifting one way, he can quickly react and get that window of separation that he’s striving for.

PAUSE FOR EFFECT

We all love the high-flying prospects who can live dangerously above the rim. But not every player is gifted with the athletic frame and tools of players like Vince Carter and Amen Thompson. Smart players understand their limitations. They also understand that there’s a way to counter that world of never being known as an “elite” athlete.

Hesitations.

If you can keep the defense guessing, while also being able to play with strong footwork and change of pace, you can become an even bigger nightmare for defenders. Tyson shows plenty of instances off the bounce of how dangerous a hesitation can be. He can pause for a slight second to make the defense react before attacking with burst. Once he sees daylight presented, he attacks like a cobra.

FOOTWORK MAKES THE DREAM WORK

As I stated above, I’m a big believer in the high feel players that can become dangerous weapons with hesitations and understanding of angles. But to really get that engine cooking, you need to have the footwork as the kicker.

Players who recognize the importance of great footwork and balance can do dangerous things on the court. Jaylon has the package offensively to make him a headache for defenders. You can wall him off before he hits you with counters and dribble sequences. If you stop him there, he can put you on the block with his size and use his footwork to navigate to where he wants to get. If you think you’ve got him stopped on the drive, he can throw a nasty spin dribble at you to finish with touch.

FLOOR SPACING

The outside shot has been a pleasant development for Jaylon Tyson this year. After shooting 40.2% from deep as a sophomore on 3.5 attempts per game, Tyson shot 36.0% from three as a junior on 4.5 attempts. Sure, we’d like to see that number get a little closer to 40% on the year, but Tyson’s increase in attempts and role has something to do with the percentages.

It’s also notable that Tyson was shooting 37.4% from three after his first 24 games this year. That was before a cold spell to end the year, during which he shot 31.3% over his last seven games while averaging 18.1 points per game.

The shot has shown some consistency throughout the year. It can get a little robotic at times, but that’s something I think will be ironed out with repetition moving forward. If Tyson can become a respectable high 30% shooter from deep, a team is going to be licking their chops given the rest of his offensive upside.

ANTICIPATING THE ANGLE

Throughout the year, I continued to move up Tyson on my board every time I evaluated the tape. At first, I saw a dynamic scoring weapon who could offer some versatility with a progressing shot. But the more I watched his game, the more I started to see some fascinating tools.

Tyson is what I like to call a “reactionary playmaker.” We can workshop that name, but let me explain my theory here. There are playmakers who can create windows for their teammates or “throw them open.” I’m not saying that Tyson can’t do that, as he does often out of the pick-and-roll. But what I love the most about Jaylon’s playmaking is his ability to react to what the defense is offering him.

Jaylon can attack with the intention of scoring before quickly anticipating the defense and reacting to windows that present themselves. In the snap of a finger, he can switch from scoring mode to dime dropper. It doesn’t have to be the flashiest of plays, but Tyson can recognize where the ball should go once the defense collapses on him.

GOGGLES ON

Like stated above, Jaylon has the ability to invite the defense to make a mistake. Once the defense gives him enough attention, he doesn’t jump to make the pass as soon as possible. He waits that extra second to open up an ideal window for not only himself but also for his teammate.

It’s the little things like this that can make teams start to fall in love with a player like Tyson. The basketball IQ shows on tape in a variety of areas when it comes to the playmaking and overall feel.

ONE MOVE AHEAD

Some of these passes are just simply ridiculous. Tyson can throw some dimes on tape and you have no idea where he is going before he throws a ridiculous kick-out pass against his momentum for an open shooter on the perimeter.

Not only is Jaylon attacking while analyzing the defense, but he’s also going through his reads like an NFL quarterback. He understands what windows should present itself, but in the back of his head, he has a trick up his sleeve.

DEFENSIVE UPSIDE

There’s some interesting stuff on tape when it comes to Jaylon Tyson on the defensive side of the ball. I actually left my deep dive intrigued with the upside. Tyson battles on defense, showing determination and desire to be disruptive. He moves well off the ball and shows the awareness to rotate and put himself in position to jump potential passing lanes.

Tyson also has some “sneaky” athleticism to be a bit of a chase-down artist. Something that I think will be interesting to monitor moving forward is the on-ball defense. It’s not that it’s bad, as Tyson will show the ability to slide his feed and showcase good fundamentals when it comes to getting his hands out and avoiding reach fouls. But I do believe that him getting lower in his stance could be something that unlocks another level for his defensive consistency, especially when it comes to walling off defenders on a longer basis.

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We always find a player that starts to generate our curioisty throughout a draft cycle. After pouring through hours of film, we ask ourselves: “why am I not all-in on this guy?”

This year, that guy might be Jaylon Tyson for me. The tools and the versatility offer an intriguing talent who could thrive at the next level with the right fit.

For now, Tyson will look to carry an impressive year into a big couple of upcoming months with the predraft process. If the tape is any sort of hint, he should have no problem impressing NBA teams.