Jeremiah Fears: The Architect of Defensive Nightmares

The Oklahoma Sooners have a superstar on their hands in Jeremiah Fears, who continues to look like one of the best guards in the 2025 NBA Draft. Don't be afraid of the new unknown; embrace it.

Every now and then, there is a prospect who conjures major upheaval to a draft class due to their unexpected but undeniable production. It’s an injection of excitement, of uneasiness, of fear, of chaos. That prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft class looks to be Oklahoma Sooner Jeremiah Fears.

What Fears has been doing this season has been astounding. The freshman point guard is listed at 6’4” and 182 pounds and is averaging 17.9 points, 4.6 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.3 steals on 49.6/34.1/85.9 shooting splits. Fears isn’t just feasting on lowly early season competition either, as he has scored in double digits in every game this year and his numbers are nearly identical, if not better, against better competition. In his six games against high-major programs, Fears is averaging 20.2 points, 4.7 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.0 steals.

To be clear, Fears wasn’t exactly an unknown recruit. Initially, Fears was a Top 25 high school recruit. Well, in the 2025 recruiting class, he was. After he reclassified into the 2024 class, Fears ended up as the #40 overall recruit per ESPN. So, not only is Fears performing at an astronomical level, but he’s doing it ahead of schedule.

Fears’s box score numbers are impressive, but even when we look at his efficiency and advanced numbers, it’s impossible not to be impressed. For starters, Fears is one of four freshmen in the country to have a usage rate over 30 (Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, and Mister Dean), and he’s the only one in the group with an assist rate over 30, per Bart Torvik. He is also the only player among all true high major conferences to reach those marks. Additionally, dating back to 2008, Fears would be just the 12th freshman to have a usage of at least 30 and an assist rate of at least 30. When we narrow it down to those who did it in a true high major conference, the list narrows to Trae Young, Markelle Fultz, Tyreke Evans, Markus Burton, Isaiah Collier, and Xavier Johnson.

Those are some pretty impressive names for Fears to be associated with, and that is only looking at his assist and usage numbers. When we factor in other aspects of his game, he rapidly separates himself from the bunch; his Effective Field Goal rate of 55.3, steal rate of 4.6, and free throw rate of 57.7 are all the highest of this grouping.

To be fair, that is Bart Torvik query manipulation at its finest. However, let’s lower the usage and assist rates to 25 while also factoring in some of his scoring efficiency numbers. When we also add thresholds of 50 for effective field goal rate and 44 for free throw rate, we’re rewarded with yet another impressive grouping of names.

The point of all of that isn’t to say that Fears = Player X. Instead, it’s to highlight how special his season has been thus far. Now that we can see where some of his tendencies fall in a historical setting, let’s take a closer look at what he actually does.

The first place to start has to be his scoring. Aesthetically, Fears is one of the most fun all-around scorers in the country. While there are still plenty of improvement areas, Fears looks like he’ll be a legitimate three-level scorer. Let’s start from the outside and work our way in.

At his size, Fears simply has to improve as a shooter. Currently, his numbers aren’t bad, but they could certainly be better; he’s shooting just 34.1% from three. Typically, some strong indicators of shooting potential are current and previous percentages, volume, free throws, and floaters. The current percentages are lackluster, but the previous samples are even worse. Per Synergy, Fears shot just 23.7% from three on 59 attempts with AZ Compass over 13 games and 27.6% on 76 attempts in his 22 games with Brad Beal Elite. Not ideal. However, his current volume of 7.5 attempts per 100 possessions, free throw history of 85.9/83.3/74.2 over his last three teams, and 66.7% on floaters (only six attempts) are all encouraging signs for his scoring touch.

Currently, Fears is in just the 41st percentile in points per possession (PPP) on all jumpers, the 31st percentile shooting off the catch, and the 60th shooting off the dribble. However, as we just saw, Fears is taking a lot of difficult attempts. He isn’t being left wide open or just standing in the corner. He’s working to create his own shot in myriad ways, both off the bounce and catch. If Fears’s shot selection was painfully simple, his current shooting numbers would be more concerning. Given the volume, scoring touch, and difficulty of attempts, it’d be surprising if he didn’t grow into a significantly better shooter.

Improving as a shooter will only bolster Fears’s scoring numbers, but also make his ability to get downhill all the easier. That aspect of Fears’s scoring game is easily the most enjoyable. Fears has a special ability to get downhill, attack the rim, and generate points. He isn’t a one-trick pony either, as he’ll implement blow-by drives in isolation, employ his puppeteer-esque handle to toy with his defender, effortlessly run a pick-and-roll, and play with an uncommon sense of physicality for a guard his size. Currently, Fears ranks in the 65th percentile as the pick-and-roll ball handler, the 83rd percentile in transition, and the 88th percentile in isolation—all while shooting 63.2% at the rim.

The way that Fears attacks the rim is abnormal for a player his age, let alone one who reclassified. For starters, Fears’s handle is sublime. He toys with defenders, is really crisp with his movements, and has the ball on a string. He then combines his exquisite handle with great footwork, flexibility, and explosiveness in tight areas. He isn’t a major above-the-rim finisher, but his ability to get low, change directions, and slither around defenders is special. Finally, he combines the tangible with the intangible. Not only does he have the ball skills and physical tools of an elite on-ball creator, but he also has the mindset. Fears is constantly initiating contact to draw fouls, negating a shot blocker, and sending on-ball defenders the wrong way. Skills can be taught, and muscle can be built, but to change a mindset is extraordinarily difficult.

As we can see, Fears will eagerly attack open pockets in the lane. If defenders give him space, he won’t settle for a jumper. This type of mindset is a major reason why his scoring numbers are as impressive as they are and why he’s only behind Dylan Harper in free throw attempts among freshmen. If Fears is already this effective and physical at this size, imagine what he’ll look like after a few years of NBA strength and conditioning.

Aside from the fact that points are good, Fears’ rim pressure and diverse on-ball creation also generate plenty of playmaking opportunities. We ran through his assist rate earlier, but there is more to be impressed by. When we take Fears’ possessions plus assists, he’s generating 1.315 PPP (83rd percentile). Additionally, he’s generating 1.186 PPP (92nd percentile) from the pick-and-roll including passes, and 1.042 PPP (73rd percentile) from isolations including possessions.

That same balance of physicality, creativity, and versatility from his scoring game pops up in his playmaking. Typically, young players get blinders when they get in traffic. With Fears, though, the game already looks incredibly slow. Nothing he does feels predetermined, as he’s constantly adjusting on the fly based on what the defense does. His playmaking vision and creativity are brilliant complements to his handle and scoring.

Unfortunately, Fears’s playmaking isn’t flawless. So far, he has struggled with turnovers averaging 3.9 per game with a turnover rate of 21.3 and an assist-to-turnover ratio of just 1.21. In some respects, this is something that Fears has to clean up. However, I tend to think that a lot of the concerns with his turnover numbers are simply pearl-clutching. Don’t get me wrong, turnovers are bad. However, they aren’t all created equal.

For starters, most young guards, especially ones who reclassified, struggle with turnovers. Add in a usage rate north of 30 and it’s even more understandable. When we continue to look at just his numbers, though, they scream of a player with immense amounts of offensive responsibility. If his usage or assist rates were a fraction of what they currently are, his current turnover rate would be more concerning. However, his numbers suggest a player who shoulders the bulk of the offensive creation responsibilities and has to take some risks. When we also look at the film, that’s exactly what we see. So many of Fears’ turnovers are the result of him trying to make a play. Sure, there are occasional ball security or passing accuracy issues; more often than not, though, it comes down to his creativity and desire to make a play. I would much rather Fears learn through his mistakes and continue to be audacious than neutralize his splendid creativity.

While Fears has consistently dazzled on the offensive end, he’s also been a consistent frustration on the defensive end. On that end of the floor, he’s a mixed bag. Let’s start with the bad and then we’ll end on a high note.

The obvious issue right now is Fears’s size. He’ll inevitably get targeted and will struggle early in his career simply because he’s smaller than most of the other guys. More worrisome, though, is his off-ball defense. He is constantly ball-watching, not communicating switches, and losing his man in motion. He becomes so ball-obsessed that he leaves himself vulnerable and puts his teammates in position to clean up his mistakes.

Given Fears’ offensive workload, some of these defensive issues can be excused. While his size will be an issue early on, it shouldn’t be a long-term one. Overall, Fears has been pretty good defending on-ball. He generally moves his feet well, and the physicality that he plays with on offense also shows up on defense. Once he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own. While his ball-watching can expose him, it also leads to him jumping a lot of passing lanes—which is a primary cause for his 4.6 steal rate. If maintained, Fears would be one of five freshmen from a true high major conference to finish with a usage rate over 27 and steal rate over 4 (James Harden, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Smart, and Corey Chandler). Does that mean anything? Maybe not, but it’s a fun group. Fears likely won’t be a big-time defender, but there are enough signs that suggest he can at least hold his own.

The 2025 NBA Draft is loaded with really intriguing guards and perimeter players, and Jeremiah Fears has forced his way into that group. Not many players in the country right now have Fears’ creativity, versatility, production, and feel. Then you factor in his age and his draft stock starts to climb to some dangerous levels. Fears isn’t a perfect prospect, but his current improvement areas aren’t insurmountable. Whether you want to go by vibes, tape, or numbers, Jeremiah Fears is looking like one of the best guards in the 2025 NBA Draft.