John Blackwell: Back to the Well
Stephen Gillaspie breaks down 2026 NBA Draft prospect, John Blackwell's, game and how he translates to the NBA!
Progress isn’t linear; blah, blah, blah…
I know this is said over and over. But, it’s kind of true—particularly in basketball. Not everyone has the same starting point, so why would we assume that everyone is going to have the same end point? Even more, why would we expect prospects to arrive at the same point at the same time?
It’s because that’s the easiest way to think about development—especially for me. I constantly have to remind myself that just because a prospect did well in an area as a Freshman, that doesn’t mean that area will carry over the following season. Sometimes players have to learn haw to take on a larger role—and feel that role—while also being super efficient.
Putting it all together can take more than one season. For most prospects, it’s almost a certainty it will require a few seasons for a player to be ready for the next level.
Guess what? That’s okay.
Look at Cedric Coward, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Sion James in their rookie seasons in the NBA to start this season. These players can come in and make impacts immediately in the league because they came to their teams ready to contribute. The same thing can be said about today’s prospect, John Blackwell.
The Buildup
John Blackwell committed to Wisconsin and played a solid role for the team in his freshman season. Playing in 34 games (starting one of them), Blackwell played 18.5 MPG—scoring 8.0 PPG on 45/46/82 splits. John proved himself to be a building block for the Badgers, and as a player that would be primed to take on a larger share of the offense.
He did just that.
John played 31.2MPG and almost doubled his scoring, averaging 15.8 PPG. Even though he was on the same team with John Tonje—who was a consensus All-American—Blackwell was able to carve out a sizable role that somehow went under the radar.
Perhaps that’s because the three point efficiency took a dip. In his last nine games of the season, John only shot 28% from deep. Despite the inefficiency Blackwell showed in a larger role, we saw him score about 18 PPG in that same stretch, while also rebounding and passing well. But how would those things carry over to this season?
The Offense
Shooting
John has averaged 18.0 PPG while putting up 11.0 attempts from the floor per game. It’s clear with Tonje now in the NBA that Blackwell is going to be the focal point of the team. So far, so good.
One of the biggest areas of emphasis that evaluators are going to have is John’s shooting. I mentioned earlier that the deep ball went down in efficiency last season after shooting almost 46% on his threes, finishing under 33% on over nine attempts per 100 possessions.
This season, he’s getting things off on the right foot, as he is shooting 40.0% on 13.4 attempts per 100 possessions. This sort of efficiency shows that sometimes players have multiple aspects of their game that they need to work out on higher volume. Last season, Blackwell got his volume up. Over the offseason, he worked tirelessly to get the efficiency there.
In this clip, we’ll see how John has grown more comfortable in his jumper.
There isn’t anything too crazy—just confidence. John (#25 in white) kicks the ball over to the right side of the floor, then slowly works his way to the left wing. The ball is eventually worked over to the left elbow, and the defense collapses. Blackwell fades to the corner off a back screen and rises up for a clean corner three.
Splash!
While the three-pointer was down last season, one area where John was consistent last year was his transition three-pointers. Last year, Blackwell went for 40% on his transition deep shots. This year, he’s still looking confident.
In this clip, we see as much. John runs up the floor as a trail option on the left wing. As the defense is working to contain the transition drive, John provides a clean outlet for the ball handler to find after he picks up his dribble. Our guy steps into the shot in rhythm and cashes in the jumper.
There is a sense of belief that this sort of shot is always going to be in his back pocket, due to the confidence he plays with. Here, we see John get the ball in the left corner. His man steps up to contest his shot. Instead of driving or forcing a more difficult pass, Blackwell steps into the shot and is able to knock down the long ball. It’s shots like this—and the next one—that gives hope that the jumper will be around for Blackwell throughout this season.
John’s handle is able to be used to aid him in creating openings for his shot. As the ball is advanced to the right block, Blackwell presents himself open on the left wing. John opts to attack to his right. The defender does a good job of staying in front of John, which forces our guy to cross back to the left, and then into a step back. Blackwell is able to drain the dribble jumper from distance—something he was decent at doing last season, finishing on about 37% of his dribble jumper three pointers.
Attacking
One of the more aspects of Blackwell’s game that has been there is his ability to get to the cup. Over the past two seasons, John has recorded a Free Throw Rate of 32.4 and 51.6, respectively. We’re already seeing more assertiveness from John in the younger portion of the season.
John is a strong and tough player—something I value in players of all positions. We’ll see this clip start with our guy in the left corner. He goes to attack, but his man gives a good effort to disrupt the drive. John takes the ball back outside and drives toward the paint.
Not only is Blackwell physically tough, but he maintains his balance well. He’s able to rip the ball from his right to his left and finish the layup with contact. This is immaculate body shielding from John. The understanding of finishing angles—on top of the balance and strength—allows him to be a scoring threat from the inside despite being a smaller guard.
Here’s another example of that.
This clip starts with John at the top of the key, working the two-man action. The defense does well to stunt out in front of him, as it’s no secret that Blackwell is the primary scoring option on the team. John’s man finds his way back in front of him.
Our guy feels comfortable with this matchup and isolates against the defender back at the top of the key. John attacks the middle of the paint with his left, goes up into his shot off of a double clutch, and finishes through contact for the And-One opportunity.
Last season, John was second on Wisconsin in And-Ones (14) —trailing Tonje by one. He’s already at two on the season.
Playmaking
His ability to get penetration typically results in a shot attempt, but I would like to see a bit more of plays like this from Blackwell.
Here we see John take advantage of a scrambling defense, working the ball baseline on the second side of the offense. John has a nasty first step here, which makes the defender look like his feet are glued to the court. John recognizes that the defense is looking to wall him off at the rim.
Instead of forcing a tough shot, or trying to draw contact to get to the line, Blackwell sees his teammate slipping down the lane. He feeds his teammate out of a shooting motion, allowing him to finish an easy layup.
Last season, John had an Assist Percentage of 14.3 to a Turnover Percentage of 15.2, resulting in an A:TO of 1.1. That’s not crazy high for a guard. This year (so far), John has an Assist Percentage of just 13.7, but a Turnover Percentage of 9.0. That has yielded an A:TO of 1.6.
The decision-making has improved in terms of efficiency, but I—and I’m sure NBA teams—would love to see the volume trend northward.
The Defense
With the role John has accrued with the Badgers, it would make sense for his defense to have taken a bit of a back seat. However, he has still shown a propensity to be a defensive playmaker.
John has good instincts and can play like a free safety away from the ball.
Northern Illinois attacks the left side of the court, and establishes deep position on the left block. As the Badger defense converges on the ball, the ball handler has to work through his progressions to find an escape route.
Blackwell is in help, which allows him to read the ball handler. He positions himself well and is able to react to a pass to any one of three offensive players. The usual pass in this situation is the same-side corner, but the defense takes the pass away. The next-easiest pass in this spot is to the top of the key.
Not only does the ball have to travel a long way, but John reads the ball-handler’s eyes and sees where the ball is going to go. He sprints out to meet the pass and intercepts it.
This is another example of John being able to make plays on the ball. This is a simple transition play, where Blackwell slides off of his man to fill in a driving lane. As the ball handler drives the ball, it looks like he believes the kickout to the corner is available. Blackwell is able to jump out to pick off the pass.
Over the past two seasons, John has had a Steal Percentage of 1.6 and 1.4, respectively. To start this year, he has a Steal Percentage of 1.9! That’s even though he is the guy on the offensive end. He’ll need to continue to be a consistent defensive playmaker as he gets into conference play.
Curtains
John Blackwell is coming off a strong summer of workouts, as I’ve learned through conversations. Those workouts have already borne fruit when it comes to his scoring aggressiveness. Recalling the two questions I wrote about in my Cayden Boozer piece, we’ve learned that teams are asking:
Are they willing to pick up full court?
How are they under pressure?
John feels like he’s worked himself into those thresholds. Now, we need to see that the jumper is consistent. We also need to see sustained playmaking over the course of the season. Wisconsin isn’t as strong as they have been in years past, so John will have to walk a tightrope between scoring and passing. Selflessness will do more for him in the long term. He will be one of the more interesting prospects to keep tabs on throughout the season.
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