Joshua Jefferson: Connectivity is Key
Stephen dives into Iowa State prospect Joshua Jefferson for the 2025 NBA Draft and how he projects to the league.
Some of the most adored players in the NBA are what NBA Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal would call “The Others”. The stars are easy hits; it doesn’t take much for people to agree on the greatness of players like Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, etc. But what stirs up some of the most excitable reactions among fans are discussions centered around Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, Shane Battier, Marcus Camby, and others.
Those players have stark contrasts in the way that they play, perhaps, but what they share is their ability to fill a role. Their ability to see how the stars are playing and step up where needed is what makes them invaluable to their teams and endears them to the fans. Their connectivity is key to their success.
In last year’s draft class, there were two players that many pegged as sure things as contributors for any team: Tristan da Silva and Devin Carter. Da Silva had a white-hot stretch at the beginning of the season and has clearly made a case as a key rotational player for the Magic moving forward. Carter—coming off an injury—has been slowly working his way into the rotation for the Sacramento Kings. With rotation players always being in demand, one may wonder who can come in and contribute in that capacity.
Names like Nique Clifford, Kam Jones, and Johni Broome might crop up in one’s mind quickly, but one other player—who hasn’t received a ton of mainstream buzz—has consistently made a strong case. One other player has been an engine on both sides of the ball for his team. One other player has a combination of size, feel, and skill that figures to check the proverbial boxes all NBA teams look for. That player is today’s featured prospect, Joshua Jefferson.
Offense
Joshua Jefferson doesn’t have what many would call a “complete” offensive game, but it would be hard to deny that he isn’t well-rounded. Per Synergy, Jefferson averages 0.976 points per possession, which ranks in the 68th percentile—or “Very Good”. Within his offensive repertoire, Synergy has Joshua credited with six different play types of at least 30 possessions. That sort of range allows him to be plugged into a multitude of spots for Iowa State.
Bully Ball
Jefferson has a ton of strength—something that many value in a player coming from college into the pros. Many scouts vary in their analysis of “bully ball”, and how it translates. While it may be true that Joshua Jefferson likely won’t score exclusively from the paint, I find it valuable that he has shown he can take a bump and put the ball in the basket.
In this clip against Kansas, we get a chance to see Jefferson (#2 in yellow) come in off of a transition possession. To start, Joshua brings the ball on the right wing and drives to the block. Once he gets his defender, Flory Bidunga (#40 in white), to the block, Joshua puts him on his right shoulder and muscles his way into the paint. Keeping his defender on his heels, Jefferson is able to rotate right and floats up a left-handed hook shot.
Here’s another look where Jefferson is going right at another prominent frontcourt player in the college ranks. Against Texas Tech, JT Toppin (#15 in white) is on defense against our guy. When working the pick and roll, Jefferson starts the play by setting a beautiful screen. He is deceptively stronger than the game film depicts him as being. The separation he gives his teammate, Keshon Gilbert (#10 in yellow), is sufficient enough that Toppin has to switch over to shut off the driving lane.
Jefferson catches the ball on the right elbow with some nice space. His passing ability (which we will touch on later) makes the surveying he does upon the catch worth caring about; the help has to go back to their assignments, which opens up the paint. Jefferson goes into Toppin’s chest and backs him down. After a few power dribbles, Joshua rotates to his left into the paint, sells a quick up-fake, rips the ball through to his left, and finishes with a nice shot in traffic. While JT Toppin has incredible length, so does our guy, and he is able to finish with polish to complement his force.
Even when Joshua is met by a player of equal or greater strength, he has the ability to lean into more finesse and skill to get a bucket. In one of the earlier games of the year, Iowa State faced off against one of the top teams in the country in Auburn. The Tigers—one of the oldest college basketball teams—defended Jefferson on this play with Chris Moore (#5 in blue).
Iowa State brings the ball up the court and gives the ball to Dishon Jackson (#1 in white). Our guy posts up on the right block as Jackson gets the ball. Jackson gets him the ball, and Jefferson goes into his post game. Joshua tries to back down Moore—who is listed at 6’6” and 240 pounds—and doesn’t gain much ground. Some players may have passed the ball out at this point, but Joshua is able to face up on Moore and rise up on a fadeaway. The ball finds the hoop and drops for two points.
Off-Ball Movement
As a cutter, Jefferson is credited with 49 possessions. Within those possessions, Joshua ranks within the 55th percentile, which grades out as “Good”. His ability to play off of ball handlers helps his suitability to work with creators at the next level.
For a player to be successful playing away from the ball, timing is everything—it’s what allows any pass-and-score sequence to be converted. We get an opportunity to see Jefferson’s prowess as a cutter in this clip against West Virginia.
This clip starts with Keshon Gilbert running the pick and roll with Dishon Jackson, while our guy is playing away from the ball on the left wing. West Virginia’s defense puts forth their effort into stopping Gilbert’s drive—which they do. As Gilbert picks up the ball, Joshua sees that the defense has lost track of him, and he makes a cut to the paint. Gilbert finds our guy and feeds him the rock for two easy points.
It’s easy to envision how much of an impact Joshua could have in the open court—especially when you see plays like this one. This clip starts the same way as the prior one, with Gilbert and Jackson working the two-man game. Gilbert rejects the screen that Jackson sets to his left and sees the open lane in front of him.
With Iowa State having all five players along the perimeter on this set, Gilbert’s open lane results in only one defender being in help. That defender, Keyshawn Hall (#4 in black), has to step to the lane in an attempt to stop Gilbert’s pursuit to the paint. Seeing this, our guy Jefferson times his cut to the lane perfectly and flushes the alley-oop.
Playmaking
In order for a player to be a connective player, there has to be some semblance of passing in their game. Not only does Jefferson have passing in his game, it would be easy to say that his passing feel is the best part of his offense.
We’ll prove that statement emphatically with this first clip against Houston. Iowa State is running a BLOB set, which results in Joshua getting the ball off of a high pass. Jefferson faces up his man and looks to bully his way to the paint. Houston sends help to irritate Joshua, to perhaps force an error. Joshua looks to the right wing where his teammate, Milan Momcilovic (#22 in yellow), is open on the perimeter. This causes the help to rotate out to the wing.
What the defense doesn’t see—that somehow Joshua does—is that Nate Heise (#0 in yellow) is all alone on the baseline. Our guy drops a beautiful dime to Heise that nobody sees coming. This sort of feel and awareness is something that cannot be taught.
Jefferson has an assist percentage of 19.6 on a modest usage percentage of 23.1. On the season, he has an A:TO of 1.4. This sort of playmaking from a frontcourt position makes him highly valuable to the NBA, as many of their actions flow through those spots. While he can catch and survey for open teammates, Joshua is capable of making reads off of the bounce as well.
In this clip against Cincinnati, we see Joshua bring the ball up the floor on the right wing. As our guy’s defender steps up, Iowa State’s Brandton Chatfield (#33 in red) gets into a screening position to Joshua’s left. Our guy explodes to the screen and applies pressure to the center of the defense. As Chatfield’s defender slides over to stop Jefferson, Chatfield dives to the rim. Our guy is able to perfectly time a slick bounce pass to Chatfield in stride, who cashes in a layup. A beautiful find for Joshua.
Many prospects can sort of fall into a hyperbolic state of players that can manipulate the defense. Since he plays a frontcourt position, defenders may not be accustomed to lining up against someone who can be an offensive hub. Jefferson can pick apart a defense—especially if his man isn’t ready.
We see just that in this clip against Kansas. As Joshua gets the switch with Zeke Mayo (#5 in white) on him, he goes into a post up position. While he is backing Mayo down, Joshua keeps his head up and analyzes the defense. Hunter Dickinson (#1 in white) is forced to help off Dishon Jackson. Joshua sees Jackson cutting to the rim but doesn’t pass to him initially. If our guy makes the pass first, there is a chance Dickinson can recover and contest.
What Jefferson does to set his teammate up is perfect. He fakes a pass to Gilbert on the left wing, which shifts the defense to that direction. That quick fake shifts the defense away from where he really want to go with the ball, which is to an open Jackson in the paint. Our guy hits Jackson immediately following the fake to Gilbert, resulting in an easy, two-handed flush.
Shooting
I’m not going to lie here: the shooting numbers are a bit rough, and were a concern of mine and others coming into the season. Last year at St. Mary’s, Jefferson shot about 27% from deep on 2.3 attempts per game. This year, Joshua is shooting less (1.7 attempts per game) and is only hitting a smidge above 31% from deep. His free throw percentage is over 77% on the year—up from over 73% the season prior.
While shooting isn’t Jefferson’s strong suit, there are some redeemable metrics in his favor. When he has taken jumpers off of the catch, he has hit them at a respectable clip when open. It’s likely that an NBA won’t look for our guy to do much shooting off of the bounce at the next level, so the fact that he has connected on about 35% of his open jumpers isn’t awful—especially when he only hit about 21% of such shots the year before.
What I love about this clip of him shooting against Colorado isn’t that he simply caught the ball and shot it, but it’s how he got to his shot in the first place. Keshon Gilbert starts with the ball to begin this look, and gets into his two-man game with Chatfield. As Gilbert drives right off of the screen, the defense naturally shifts with him. Jefferson is alone in the left corner, but he isn’t in position to have an easy pass to made to him. Even if a pass came his way, the time it would likely take to reach him would allow the defense to recover and contest.
Not content with being a statue away from the play, our guy maintains excellent spatial awareness and flashes from the corner to the wing. As he i moving to the wing, Gilbert pushes him the ball and Jefferson catches the ball in motion, then lets it fly. The shot actually moves out of his hands quickly and falls through the net. This is actually a beautiful-looking shot.
While there are moments of positivity in terms of shooting, Jefferson is a sub-33% shooter from deep off of the catch. The shot doesn’t look too off, but it does take a minute for the shot to travel. There is a dip from the waist. The shot does have a nice high release point. The shooting hand waves off to the side. The shot groupings can be a bit inconsistent. This is what makes his shot a bit concerning.
Defense
As funky-fun as Jefferson can be on offense, Joshua is a very good defender. Iowa State uses him to defend a number of different positions on a game-by-game basis. Listed at 6’8” and 220 pounds, Jefferson is a stout and versatile piece for an NBA team to lean on defensively. While defensive metrics aren’t always super reliable, Synergy ranks Joshua in the 59th percentile—or “Good”—in that category.
Quick Hands
Joshua has some of the quickest hands in college basketball—and not just for a frontcourt player. In this clip against Houston, we see Joseph Tugler (#11 in white) attempting to run a DHO action with Milos Uzan (#7 in white) on the right wing. As Tugler nears Uzan, he picks up his dribble. Now, Tugler has a roughly +6 inch wingspan and holds the ball high over his head as he rejected the handoff to Uzan. Jefferson uses a quick strike at the ball and forces the turnover.
Gambling
What makes Jefferson such an effective defender isn’t just his quick hands, but it’s his instinctual ability to make a play on the ball. In this clip against Cincinnati, Dan Skillings Jr. (#0 in black) gets the ball to bring the ball up the floor. Skillings Jr. looks to push the ball quickly, and his defender, Keshon Gilbert, tries to force a turnover.
Skillings Jr. actually does a great job of navigating around an aggressive defender, but he doesn’t see what would come next. Joshua is in a deny position as the ball crosses halfcourt. As he sees Skillings Jr. slip the ball behind his back due to Gilbert’s pressure, Jefferson runs—not to where the ball is but where it is going. Joshua utilizes his quick hands as he makes a play on the ball and winds up forcing the turnover.
To this point, Jefferson has 62 steals on the season. This equates to 2.1 steals per game, and a steals percentage of 4.1. Needless to say, our guy knows how to force a turnover.
To start out this quick clip, Auburn’s Miles Kelly (#13 in blue) gets the ball at the top of the key. Kelly opts not to drive to get a bucket, but he wants to get the ball to Johni Broome (#4 on left) on the left wing. What should be a routine pass ends up being the turnover, all due to Jefferson’s timing, tools, and instincts.
Processing
When he isn’t forcing turnovers by way of a steal, Joshua is able to challenge and contest shots with the best of them. What makes him such a fantastic ball hawk translates to his rim protection. On this clip against Oklahoma State, Arturo Dean (#2 in white) starts with the ball. Dean and Abou Ousmane (#33 in white) start to work a two-man action, which results in Dean putting pressure on the defense. Dean follows the path that Ousmane carves out for what should be a routine layup.
As all of this is taking place, Jefferson is playing off in a help position in the right wing. As Dean is making his way to the paint, our guy explodes to meet him. Jefferson is able to leap off of both feet and reject the would-be layup. This is a small encapsulation of Joshua’s rotational instincts and rim protection.
What makes Jefferson’s rotation skills unique is that he doesn’t need to camp out in a corner and run to meet the ball handler; he can also recover from being behind the play and force a miss.
To start this clip against Kansas, Zeke Mayo has the ball in the right corner, coming off of a flare screen set by Hunter Dickinson. Jefferson is guarding KJ Adams Jr. (#24 in white) at the top of the key. After setting the screen, Dickinson has a wide-open lane to the basket, and he guns for it; there is no reason why he shouldn’t come off of this play with two easy points.
Jefferson sees all of this from the top of the key. As Hunter gets the bounce pass from Mayo, our guy explodes to the paint to meet him. Before Dickinson goes for the shot, Joshua leaves his feet to meet the ball where it is going. Our guy rejects the would-be layup.
Joshua can make plays in the halfcourt, but he can also create chaos defending the fastbreak as well. We see that here in this play against TCU. Noah Reynolds (#21 in purple) gets the ball off of a rebound and looks to push the break. Jefferson quickly runs to meet Reynolds.
Noah realizes that our guy is on his hip, and looks to shift the ball from his left hand—the inside hand—to his right, looking to shield Joshua away from the ball with his body. This body shielding doesn’t work, as Jefferson high-points the ball and sends it away.
At this point of the season, Joshua has 22 blocks on the season. That breaks down to 0.7 blocks per game and a Block Percentage of 2.9.
Curtains
Joshua Jefferson has the makings to be an ultimate role player at the next level. With that said, there is a chance that he doesn’t even declare and stay in the 2025 NBA Draft Class. I am of the opinion that—should Joshua declare and stay—Jefferson would be a player that NBA teams would be interested in. His physical frame, his intangibles, and his connectivity are what would make him a desirable commodity.
The problem, scouting-wise, is the existence of two worlds: the world that is and the world that should be (in my opinion). What you see among most draft outlets are a number of names that crop up from the back half of the first round and the entire second round. There isn’t a lot of Joshua Jefferson. I think there should be.
I get the fact that he isn’t a remarkable shooter from deep, but I do believe he can be an impactful defender. I believe he can do some great work as a screener and playmaker in the short roll. He competes on the glass. While the shot isn’t falling a ton, the shot isn’t horrific. What makes me so confident in Jefferson translating to the NBA is his connectivity—and, for a role player, connectivity is key.
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