JT Toppin: Iron is Sharpening Iron
It matters when a player transfers up in competition and still dominates the field. Read on to find out what Rowan thinks about 2025 NBA Draft prospect JT Toppin and his ascendant play this season!
Back in my (not very) illustrious sports career that included basketball, ultimate frisbee, soccer, track and field, and cross country, I had a ton of coaches. Some taught me lessons, while others taught me the value of patience in waiting until next season. However, all my coaches wanted to push me to be the best version of myself, which is exactly what a good coach does.
I only heard this toward the dwindling end of my playing days, but the phrase “iron sharpens iron” stuck with me as a competitor. When boiled down, the phrase instructs players to seek out worthy competition, whether their teammates or opponents, and better themselves by going against the best.
In a lot of ways, I feel that way at No Ceilings. Everyone I’ve worked with over my two years on the team has helped me improve in every facet of my scouting and writing. Similarly, when looking at players across conferences, I’ve become more moved by a player transferring up to improve their game and meeting the challenge head-on. Think Dalton Knecht, who transferred from Northern Colorado to Tennessee and elevated his game in a major way against better competition.
While a more prominent player in Danny Wolf is sharpening his game admirably against improved competition, the focus of my piece today is JT Toppin. Toppin caught my eye last year as part of a dynamic freshman duo with Donovan Dent at New Mexico, helping them earn their first March Madness trip since 2014.
After the season, while Dent chose to stay in Albuquerque, Toppin entered the transfer portal and headed to Texas Tech to play for Grant McCasland. The Red Raiders made it to the tournament last year in McCasland’s first season at the helm, but they are a consensus Top 10 team this year. That’s a result of great defense and a cohesive team concept. Still, a huge share of the credit rests on the shoulders of JT Toppin, who’s sharpening his iron in a much tougher conference and establishing himself as a surefire draft prospect in the process.
JT Toppin’s Sharpest Points
If you were a pure box score watcher, there’d be some good and some bad in Toppin’s transition to the Big 12. Sure, he’s averaging more points per game, assists per game, and free-throw attempts, but his blocks per game and shooting from two-point and three-point ranges are all down.
From my perspective, that’s a good thing. It makes sense that Toppin, at a lower baseline level of competition, was finishing at an elite clip, hitting an encouraging amount of threes on low volume, and blocking almost two shots a game. That’s what you want to see out of a prospect: domination.
Now that Toppin is at a higher level, facing hard-nosed veteran front lines on teams like Kansas, Houston, and Iowa State, it’s understandable that he’ll struggle more. If he looked like a completely different player, I’d be worried. Instead, Toppin looks like he belongs in the Big 12. He’s made notable strides on both ends of the floor, has suffered some understandable drawbacks in his production, and still has much room to grow.
So, where does JT Toppin shine? Let’s start on the defensive end. Listed at 6’9” and 225 pounds, Toppin’s height and weight slots him in as a forward. On the court, however, Toppin is more of a stopgap multi-tool, using his great leaping ability to contest shots and his fast reflexes to disrupt plays before they can do damage.
Toppin’s defense playmaking stands out just as much as his fundamental positioning and stance. Per BartTorvik, he’s one of nineteen freshmen or sophomores in the country with over a 5.0% block percentage and a 2.0% steals percentage. That number is slashed down to eight when you factor in a BPM of 5.0 or higher, with Toppin leading the charge at a whopping 10.5.
When running a historical query on freshmen or sophomores who have hit those BPM, blocks percentage, and steals percentage figures before, the evidence is clear that Toppin is a high impact player. I’m not claiming that Toppin will end up like any of the star prospects on this list, but it’s a meaningful list to be on as a second-year player. It also speaks to the likelihood that Toppin can carry over his great college production into the NBA next season.
No matter how you slice it, Toppin is producing blocks and steals at a highly productive clip for one of the best defensive teams in the country. Both markers are strong indicators of future production at the NBA level, which is further bolstered by the fact that this is Toppin’s second year putting up these marks. Although his block percentage has dipped from his time at New Mexico, again, that has a positive spin given the change in competition.
Toppin uses his hawkish length as a thief to strip unwitting ball-handlers and snatch passes from the sky. He participated in the NBA Draft Combine last season, where his wingspan measured 7’0.5”. It’s not technically a necessity to have a plus wingspan to be a good player at the NBA level, but it never hurts. In truth, Toppin’s wingspan is one of the biggest reasons he’s a productive swiper on defense.
What matters most to me about Toppin’s steals is how reactive he is on defense. I’ll also return to it in other sections, as it’s one of his main draws as a defender. More often than not, Toppin is in great position on defense; you can see it in his steals where he flashes to front the post and swipes out of the air. When Toppin is beat or caught off guard, however, the fact that he has the length and reaction time to get his hands involved and make something out of nothing on defense makes him a valuable fixer for a defense.
As a rim protector, it’s important to get out of the way that JT Toppin likely can’t be a defensive anchor at the next level. He’s too small in height and width to man the middle of an NBA defense like he does for Texas Tech. Sure, he’s not their only center, as massive Federiko Federiko is the first big off the bench for the Red Raiders, but Toppin likely won’t be utilized like he is at Texas Tech in the NBA.
However, that doesn’t mean he’ll lose his efficacy as a shot-blocker. Toppin’s blocks are violent rejections of offense as a concept itself, delivered with both the force of an aggressor and the tact of someone only averaging 2.3 fouls per game. He can match players vertically, recover when beaten off the dribble, come over from the weakside for a swat, or any block in between.
JT Toppin is the caliber of shot blocker opponents fear when driving the lane. He’s just as liable to spike a ball out of bounds as he is to gobble up the rebound after swatting the shot. At the NBA level, Toppin will fit right into a defensive concept where he gets to lurk just outside of the paint and make great weakside and recovery blocks, which is a valuable tool that any tactician wants at their disposal.
Toppin’s vertical leaping abilities help him just as much with his shot blocking as with his rebounding. He registered a 34” max vertical at the NBA draft combine, which is great for a player of his size and build. Toppin is one of the more easily athletic forwards in the draft class and has one of the best second and third jumps in the country.
JT Toppin means business on the glass, with a 14.2% offensive rebounding percentage and a 27.2% defensive rebounding percentage. His 3.1 offensive boards per game are an immediate plug-and-play skill at the next level, as the tenacity to keep possessions alive is of high value. His ability to siphon in defensive boards, which he snatches down with ferocity and good technique, also helps form the backbone of the good defenses he anchors.
The archetype of an athletic defender and rebounder may have been more popular in the draft a few years ago. NBA players need to do more than rest on their athletic laurels. Toppin is a good defender outside of his length and leaping, which helps his case, but as a baseline for his draft stock, being a great defender and rebounder gives him solid ground to stand on.
Luckily, Toppin has a few more tools in his repertoire to make him NBA-ready. He’s a strong finisher at the basket, per Synergy, shooting 63.6% at the rim this season and 68.0% last season. The foundation of Toppin’s finishing prowess is his great leaping ability, as he can fly right over a would-be defender’s positioning to finish a powerful lob, putback dunk, or dimed bounce pass.
Another place where Toppin’s great vertical comes into play is on putbacks. Those 3.1 offensive rebounds and his spectacular second and third jumps I mentioned earlier? All of these elements marry together to make Toppin one of the premier putback prospects in the world. Per Synergy, Toppin is shooting 63.3% on his putback attempts, which may seem low before you factor in the times that Toppin grabs his misses and puts those back as well.
These makes may not be as highly regarded as standard self-created buckets, but they represent one of the easier ways that Toppin earns points for himself and his team. He’ll almost always be the smaller player at the next level, but his tenacity and quick jumping should help him burrow his way into the paint and snatch a few boards a game, which brings value to his future NBA team.
Finally, Toppin has already sharpened his cutting and spacing along the baseline to be a dangerous weapon for his team. Per Synergy, Toppin is shooting a smooth 63.3% on cuts, which include his subtle realignments into the dunker spot and off of drives by his guards. It may not be the flashiest skill, like his putbacks, but Toppin’s become adept at using it to his advantage.
After two seasons of strong evidence, especially with his current body of work in the Big 12, I feel confident in Toppin’s athleticism, finishing, defensive playmaking, and rebounding. If he never improves as a basketball player again, which is unlikely, he still fits into an enticing archetype of NBA teams.
Given that he’s elevated his game in the Big 12 to stay the same impactful player he was in the Mountain West, I’m bullish on Toppin continuing to grow. He’s already sharpened his strongest skills against some of the toughest competition in the country, which makes me intrigued to see what he can do the rest of this year and next year on some of his current drawbacks.
Spots for Toppin to Sharpen
Like any prospect, JT Toppin isn’t a perfect basketball player. He has a handful of growth areas that would make him even better for the Red Raiders and make him a more appealing draft prospect. As he sharpens his iron at the higher Big 12 level, it’s clear that Toppin has a lot of work to do, but he could soon be shoring up some of his weaknesses.
A major growth area for Toppin is his passing. In Texas Tech’s offensive team concepts, Toppin is rarely asked to make complex passing decisions. That’s due to Elijah Hawkins and Christian Anderson running the show at guard, but it’s also one of Toppin’s weaker areas in his game.
This is the second straight season where Toppin has had both a small turnover percentage and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. It’s good that he’s being judicious with his passing when he has the ball, but passing usually leads to low-quality results. It’s a matter of touch and timing for Toppin, who struggles the most when he’s crowded on the block in a double team or forced to speed up his offensive processing.
It’s not a fully broken part of Toppin’s game, but it’s the one that needs the most work. There’s a reason that Texas Tech has pushed him to be decisive with his scoring attacks, and the same positive results could come with simpler passing reads in set plays. It’s also not a major issue that Toppin’s passing is a minus, as an NBA team isn’t drafting him to set up plays or make split-second decisions in the short roll. Still, it would add to his utility on offense if he could do that.
Toppin’s roll game as a screener is notably better than his passing, but it does leave him some room for growth in the future. As Texas Tech’s center, he’s currently involved in many high pick-and-rolls and main off-ball screening actions. Thus, when looking at the pure Synergy numbers, it’s peculiar and concerning that Toppin only shoots 56.5% from two-point range on his actions as the roll man.
After watching the film, both reasons for this make sense while leaving me wanting. Toppin usually sets one of two types of screens: a typical ball screen or a looser screen where he barely makes contact. If there’s a tell in Toppin’s screening game, it’s there. When Toppin drops his anchor and creates contact, he’s almost always rolling to the rim. When he releases quicker, oftentimes barely making contact with the on-ball defender, he’s setting up to drive from the perimeter.
I’m not against Toppin driving from the top of the key; in fact, it’s an area that he should continue to work on at the NBA level. It represents a real untapped goldmine for his offensive versatility, as aside from his post-ups, it’s the only on-ball juice he’s shown in two years. It does, however, take away from seeing the true potential of what Toppin can do when slipping to the rim, as he doesn’t dive hard enough on his rolls and can be caught in the middle of the paint with a harder shot than needed.
Pure pick-and-roll has faded in its ubiquity in the NBA, but it’s still a skill every rotation big man needs to be good at to succeed. Toppin right now is between “fine” and “good” in my nuanced rating of his talent as a roll man, which is a fine place to be as he sharpens his iron in the Big 12. At the next level, however, he will need to become a more decisive roller or lean into his handle to be good enough at creating off the bounce on his pop drives.
The next place where JT Toppin is still sharpening his game is his overall defense. That may sound odd, given my previous plaudits about his defensive playmaking, but it’s not just steals and blocks that make a good defender. Positioning, timing, and foresight are all major parts of the recipe for a good defender, alongside the physical tools to execute the intended vision.
As far as most of those, Toppin has them. He’s athletic enough to stick with players out on the perimeter on a switch, then contest their shot inside. He has a solid frame that can absorb contact and stays vertical on contests. Toppin also times his jumps well to dissuade drivers and snatch defensive rebounds. With all that said, after watching his tape, I was left wanting a bit more.
It starts with Toppin playing out of position so much for Texas Tech. The center reps are great for the Red Raiders, but they do little for his development in the NBA. If he was a knockdown shooter, which I’ll touch on next, he might have a future as a small-ball center. However, he’s only an undersized center who will likely slot in at the four for most NBA teams.
When playing outside of the paint, Toppin shows more cracks as a defender. His reactivity is sometimes his worst enemy, as he occasionally lunges on pump fakes and shot attempts from deep. He’s still disciplined more often than not, but it’s an area to clean up for Toppin, especially with the skill of shooters in the NBA who can reload in the blink of an eye to launch a three adjacent to a would-be contest.
As an on-ball defender, Toppin does a great job holding his ground and making inside attempts hard for bigs and wings. He does a solid job on the perimeter with switching screens and staying attached to ball-handlers. That said, he is still liable to rely on his ability to make up ground if he gets broken down, as there are a few too many times for my liking that Toppin gets beaten off the dribble by a guard or lithe wing.
It matters that Toppin is a defensive playmaking machine, is playing splendidly out of position, and is anchoring a top-25 defense in the country. All these factors are in the equation for my evaluation of his defense, and they are still coming out positively in my metrics and observations. That doesn’t mean, however, that he’s a finished product. If Toppin can clean up his warts, he could be a more useful NBA defender who can make a bigger impact on that end of the floor.
I’ve saved Toppin’s most significant swing skill for last because it’s one that he shares with many players: shooting. The main draw of Toppin’s game will never be his shooting, but the crux of what type of player he’ll be at the next level is inextricably tied to his marksmanship. His percentages and form are still a bit iffy, but he’s showing off the type of skill to garner some mild optimism.
First, the numbers, as they aren’t extensive. Toppin is a career 32.5% three-point shooter on just 77 attempts and 1.2 attempts per game, which speaks to how it’s not a weapon in his arsenal yet. He’s also taken 199 free throws and hit those at a middling 65.3% clip, another negative indicator. About the only positive indicator otherwise is his soft touch around the hoop, but that hasn’t transferred outside of the paint yet.
JT Toppin’s first issue is his form itself. His left foot is always ahead of his right on his shots, which slightly disrupts his balance but also lends to him taking longer to get into his shots when catching the ball. Toppin’s release point and wrist motion are fine, but the movements themselves are clunky and disjointed. Toppin’s jumper has little fluidity or stability; although it is not broken, it will need some revamping in the future.
When digging deeper into Synergy, the numbers behind the shooting paint a picture that can only be incomplete based on the few attempts. Toppin has hit just 7/21 spot-up threes this season. Last year, he hit just 8/24. A combined mark of 15/45, or 33.3%, isn’t good enough to make a defense respect him, which means swinging the ball out to an open Toppin for a shot is a win for the defense.
The more promising, but still muddled, option for Toppin is what he can do as a pick-and-pop shooter. After taking, per Synergy, just three deep pick-and-pop looks last year, Toppin has canned 7/22 of these same attempts this year. Again, the sample size is minuscule, which keeps it from being a significant driver for his shooting growth, but Toppin also looks more comfortable and fluid when hitting these shots off screening actions.
It’s baby steps for Toppin as a shooter at this point because he’s neither being asked to launch from deep nor does he need to to be effective for Texas Tech. Instead, this is a skill that NBA teams will want to see him develop quickly, whether that’s in bench minutes or the G-League. You can also expect slight changes to be implemented to his form to be viable at the next level.
However, a version of JT Toppin who has sharpened his skills is a much more tangible impact player. Adding an outside shot, viable passing, or stingier defense would give Toppin a pathway to being a productive starter on an NBA team. That’s why, although he isn’t adept at any of those skills just yet, the fact that he chose to try to improve them is encouraging in and of itself.
Forging JT Toppin’s Future
So what does the future look like for JT Toppin? In the short term, it’s chasing a title with the Red Raiders. The team boasts wins over Houston, Kansas, and Arizona, but they sit just outside the group of teams favored to win a title. It’ll take every rebound, block, and bucket from Toppin to elevate Texas Tech into a deep run, but he’s shown up every step of the way.
In a wider draft sense, it’ll be fascinating to see how Toppin attacks this draft season. He attended the NBA Draft Combine and got enough feedback to help him choose to return to college. Since returning, he’s established himself as an effective higher usage player, although he hasn’t improved his shooting or passing markedly.
That does make me a bit skeptical about what NBA teams will see differently about Toppin this time around. If they didn’t like this blend of athleticism, defense, and interior scoring before, why will they like it a year later? The answer will likely come from whether or not teams value the fact that Toppin is doing this in a top-three conference in the country versus arguably the sixth or seventh-best.
As it stands now, I’m a big fan of Toppin's work on both ends and what he could be in the NBA. I don’t think he has an exceptionally high ceiling, but his floor and median outcomes range from a productive bench player to an important starter on a good team. For a player who has focused on sharpening his ironclad skills at higher levels each step of the way, I can only imagine how JT Toppin will tackle his next team to continue to elevate his game.