Karter Knox Has NBA Tools, a Pro Frame, and Ample Potential

Like Arkansas, Karter Knox played his best ball down the stretch of the season. Knox has the size, tools, and upside to be one of the 2025 NBA Draft’s most intriguing swings.

Every year, there are players who see their draft stock rise significantly at the NBA combine. Many of these players are older guys from mid-major programs who teams are getting to see in a new setting against elite competition. Others, though, tend to be freshmen who are put in a new situation where they can showcase their physical tools while proving that what they put on film all year was more than just flashes. A prime candidate for the latter bucket in the 2025 NBA Draft is Arkansas freshman wing Karter Knox.

Knox is a tricky evaluation because he doesn’t exactly profile as a typical one-and-done at first glance. For starters, Knox had an exceedingly low usage on the season of just 16.5. Usage obviously isn’t everything, but it is nearly unheard of for a freshman with a usage under 17 to go in the first round. Even when we look at the Top 45, it’s still exceedingly rare. Even if we look at his final stretch to the season where he was playing his best ball from February 1st and on, Knox’s usage was only 15.

To make matters more complicated, Knox showcased essentially no consistent on-ball creation. As a playmaker, Knox averaged 1.0 assists per game, had an assist rate of 7.6, and a turnover rate of 16.4. Additionally, only 14 of his 291 possessions came in an on-ball (pick-and-roll ball-handler or isolation) role. So, why in the world is Knox at the combine and getting mentioned as a dark horse one-and-done prospect?

Simply put, it is because none of those numbers we ran through matter. Well, at least for Knox they don’t. On-ball creators are great, but only a handful ever breach the threshold of it mattering in the NBA in a way that’s more than a complementary skill set. Knox doesn’t profile as that type of player at all. Even when we look at his last year with OTE, he only ran 80 possessions as the pick-and-roll ball-handler and ranked in the 47th percentile in points per possession (PPP), per Synergy. Spotting up and in transition, though, Knox thrived as he ranked in the 83rd and 82nd percentiles, respectively, with OTE. That off-ball play finishing competence carried over to Arkansas, where he ranked in the 53rd and 78th percentiles, respectively.

Even as a 3-and-D wing, Knox isn’t an obvious prospect to buy in on if you only glance at his numbers. With a steal rate of 1.4, a block rate of 2.1, a Defensive Rebounding Rate of 11.9, and the usage and shooting numbers outlined earlier, Knox leaves you wanting more. When we look at his progression throughout the year and his physical tools, though, we can start to see why NBA teams remain intrigued.

At the combine this week, Knox had strong measurements at 6’5” barefoot and 214 pounds, with an impressive 6’10.25” wingspan. Knox also added one of the best max verticals at the combine of 39.5 inches. To top it all off, Knox shot relatively well during drills, going 19-30 off the dribble, 11-25 spotting up, 16-25 on 3PT Star, 18-22 on 3PT Side, and 9-10 on free throws. Measurements and shooting drills are always fun to overreact to, but they don’t really ever matter if we can’t see them in play on the court. With Knox, though, it’s easy to point to all of these traits in his games throughout the season.

The ultimate determinant of Knox’s future will likely be his outside shot. On the season, Knox shot just 35% on 100 attempts from three—nothing crazy, especially since he shot 33% on 197 attempts in his final season at OTE. The fact that Knox ended up at 35%, though, is a testament to how strong he finished the season. Up through January, Knox experienced a more sporadic role and shot just 27.9% on 61 attempts across 20 games. From February 1st through the end of the season, though, Knox shot 46.2% on 39 attempts across 16 games, all of which he started. Additionally, in his 20 games against top-50 competition, Knox shot 40% from three on 50 attempts. As the season progressed, competition improved, and his role stabilized, Knox improved significantly as an off-ball shooter.

Knox has sound mechanics and moves well without the ball. The next step for him to take is to find more consistency. Penty of players get streaky by the month, but if Knox can stabilize his output a bit more, it’ll do wonders for his game.

Shooting is crucial in and of itself, but it also creates other scoring opportunities for off-ball players with attacking closeouts. This was one of the most encouraging aspects of Knox’s scoring repertoire all year. Knox was very good at leveraging his shooting gravity to draw aggressive closeouts that he could attack to get to the rim. Thankfully, Knox had plenty of variety in his drives in these situations. Too frequently, young players only know how to attack in one direction, and their moves are predetermined. While Knox tends to prefer attacking to his right, he has a varied arsenal that allows him to go left, put defenders in jail in the midrange, and even knock down an occasional pull-up jumper. It’s in these situations that Knox’s strong combine measurements with his explosiveness and strength showed up on offense.

The odds are that these types of scoring situations will be the most common for Knox in the NBA. However, it’s always fun to dream about what could be. As a pull-up shooter, Knox ranked in the 94th percentile. That’s incredible. Unfortunately, it was on only 26 attempts and aggressively inflated by his 8-9 outside shooting. It likely won’t be his go-to skill, especially considering his struggles with OTE ranking in the 12th percentile, but it may lend some credence to him having more upside or versatility down the road, scoring out of DHOs, second-side pick-and-rolls, and transition.

Knox’s more realistic upside in terms of scoring versatility is his ability to get downhill, like we saw when he attacked closeouts. Knox only had 67 total drives this season, but he shot 51.2% on them and scored 0.955 PPP. These guys are different players and contexts, but for a point of comparison, Dylan Harper had 104 drives, shot 43.7%, and scored 0.923 PPP. VJ Edgecombe had 57 drives, shot 39.1%, and scored 0.825 PPP. There is a world where Knox is able to grow as an isolation scorer, given his effectiveness getting downhill. It isn’t a fluke that he ranked in the 96th percentile in at-rim PPP (but 40th percentile in frequency). Knox has the explosiveness and strength to consistently score there, and if he can continue to develop his handle and pull-up jumper as complements, it could grow into a very fun tool for him.

Where Knox’s physical tools really pop, though, is on defense. His individual defensive playmaking numbers aren’t outlandish, but his film is littered with competence and winning plays. His combination of strength, explosiveness, and length makes him a highly impactful team defender. He can be disruptive in passing lanes and as a weak side rim protector, but he consistently makes rotations that don’t always show up in the box score. Having a freshman wing regularly showcase the physical and mental execution in the below plays isn’t always a given.

Where Knox can get in trouble on defense, though, is on his closeouts and hip flexibility. On closeouts, Knox can be prone to lazy footwork and an upright stance. This lull in fundamentals also occasionally shows up when he’s defending on-ball. If a ball handler is quicker or really tries to string him out, Knox isn’t immune to abandoning his defensive stance and becoming more upright. These are inconsistencies that we constantly see from young players, but they need to be fixed regardless.

Despite some lapses, Knox’s on-ball defense is largely terrific. He moves his feet well to cut off drives and mirror the ball handler’s movement. When he maintains his low defensive stance, his footwork and length allow him to quickly react to and contest pull-up jumpers. Knox’s strength also allows him to switch on bigger wings or severely disrupt smaller guards. If he can improve his hip flexibility just a little and further commit to staying in his stance, there’s no reason for Knox not to be a terrific defender.

Freshmen who have minimal roles are always some of the trickiest evaluations because we can easily convince ourselves of anything given the limited information. Karter Knox doesn’t have the most diverse tape or statistical profile, but his measurements and flashes, especially to end the season, are fantastic. Like limited film, measurements can inaccurately skew our perception of a player. Just because a player has a positive wingspan and vertical doesn’t mean they know how to use it. Throughout the entire season, Knox’s explosiveness, strength, and length popped on both ends of the floor. He still has a long way to go, but Knox has an incredibly intriguing foundation that could make him a fascinating developmental swing or one of the most exciting returners for next year’s draft.