Keaton Wagler: Not Even Supposed To Be Here | Prospect Spotlight

The 2026 NBA Draft class has been full of surprising players. Keaton Wagler is perhaps headlining that group. Stephen Gillaspie analyzes his game.

Art by Kameron Wiley | Pictures property of their respective owners

Scouting is full of surprises. Sometimes, the surprises can be unpleasant—for example, the Darryn Peterson injury. With AJ Dybantsa hitting a full stride in a holistic play style, Darryn being sidelined has left the door open for more conversations as to which prospect could go first in a loaded 2026 NBA Draft class. This cycle has also been littered with contentious conversations regarding the controversial college eligibility rulings and rumors. James Nnaji—the 31st pick in the 2023 NBA Draft—has been granted permission to play for the Baylor Bears after being drafted, playing in multiple Summer Leagues, and playing professional international basketball.

While the bad news and distractions have their place in the scouting cycle, the best parts of the cycle are the players that seemingly come out of nowhere. Sure, there is a slight bit of frustration that one can spend days during the offseason trying to parse through the morass of potential NBA prospects, only for a three-star recruit to be one of the best players in the country. But it’s only a slight bit of frustration. The larger feeling is one of excitement.

How far can that player rise? How high would we rank them if they were supposed to be regarded highly?

These are all questions that fans and scouts alike should be asking themselves. It allows us to assess how to both evaluate and rank them. That mental exercise allows us to dream bigger.

That brings us to the featured prospect for this piece: Keaton Wagler.

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The Buildup

While it’s nothing that hasn’t been widely reported or discussed, Keaton Wagler was not a prospect that was thoroughly recruited or had a ton of national notoriety. That’s crazy to think since he was the 2025 Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Kansas. In high school, Keaton led Shawnee Mission Northwest High School to back-to-back 6A Championships in his last two seasons with the school. Those were also the only State Championships in that school’s history.

During his senior season, Keaton averaged close to 19 PPG, 7 RPG, 4 APG, and 2 SPG—with shooting splits of 59/45/83. Despite being the best player in the state of Kansas, Wagler wasn’t considered a Top 100 recruit by the majority of reputable grassroots scouting outlets. Some outlets had him on the fringes of the Top 25 at his position.

Wagler eventually committed to Illinois, but he also visited Minnesota, Colorado State, Southern Illinois, and Murray State. Needless to say, not very many of the “high major” universities were up on the Keaton Wagler experience.

It’s clear that the Illinois staff saw something special in Keaton. I don’t say that as some sort of bias based on more recent results (you know, the two double-doubles he had within three games). As soon as the season started for Wagler, he immediately had four games scoring in double figures. He scored 18 points or more in three of those games, going for 11 against Texas Tech. That’s where much of the hesitation came from with Wagler in the early going.

Could he do that against the “big boys”?

Well, he only dropped eight points against Alabama on 2-of-9 shooting, eight points against Texas-Rio Grande Valley, and only three points against UConn. Since that game, Wagler has averaged nearly 18 PPG, 6 APG, 5 RPG, and 1 SPG. His splits over those five games were 49/46/86.

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The Dive (Offense)

The offensive season that Keaton Wagler is having for the Fighting Illini has been stellar. We’ll dive into the particulars here in a moment, but as of today, Wagler is the leading scorer for one of the better teams in the nation. Illinois has high hopes for their season, and sport one of the best representations of an NBA team that you will find in all of college hoops. Overall, Wagler ranks in the 89th percentile across all scoring possessions. That alone is remarkable but—when you include the passing—Keaton is in the 95th percentile on all possessions plus assists.

I cannot say this enough: Keaton Wagler was not considered a Top 100 in the country.

Passing

Pick-and-Roll Passing

Let’s stick with the playmaking here with Keaton. The two double-doubles that Wagler recorded to this point have both come by way of exemplary facilitation skills. Keaton has an Assist Percentage of 21, with an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 2.8.

There is such an immense amount of feel in Keaton’s (#23 in white) game; it’s what allows him, as a thinner freshman, to get a ton of burn on the ball for one of the top teams in the country. In this clip against Southern, we see Wagler run multiple screens as an on-the-ball option.

After the first screen, our guy sees that there isn’t much to go after. He waits until Zvonimir Ivisic (#44 in white) to set an off-ball screen before he goes and sets a ball screen to Wagler’s right. Wagler uses that screen and attacks the space that has been created for him. Keaton’s drive forces a switch, which puts the backline defender on Keaton. Keaton drives to the free-throw line to force the big man to converge on him.

This understanding of defensive tendencies creates a lane for Ivisic to dive to the rim and sets him up for a well-timed lob pass from Keaton. Keaton’s handle isn’t one that will lead to a ton of space creation for himself to drive, but it allows him to serve well as a supplementary playmaker within the natural flow of the offense.

Drive and Kick

The header for this play will make what Keaton does seem simple; however, this play is anything but simple. Keaton starts this clip off on the right wing, kicks it to the strong corner, and then gets the ball back. Upon the catch, our guy waits for the screen coming from Tomislav Ivisic (#13 in blue) to his left.

Once Tomislav is set, Keaton attacks to his left aggressively; there is no waiting for Tomislav to attack as a lob threat. Wagler, playing heads-up ball here, keeps all of his options open as the play unfolds. This allows him to see Kylan Boswell (#4 in blue) make a baseline cut. It allows him to see Ben Humrichous (#3 in blue) on the left wing.

This ability to play heads up keeps the defense honest. Yes, none of those aforementioned paths are viable options, but it’s because the defense commits to those passing windows. They commit because Wagler’s eyes move them.

Wagler’s progression forces the defense to collapse on the left side of the court, so he pivots to face the right side of the court. There, he finds Zvonimir open on the right wing and zips a pass to the open man. Big Z catches the ball and cashes in from deep.

Scoring

Physical Drive and Finish

One of the biggest areas of concern with Wagler comes with his frame—and, rightfully so. I’m typically a proponent of being higher on more physically developed prospects. While that description doesn’t aptly depict what Keaton is now, he doesn’t let that stop him from mixing things up in the paint.

In this clip against Missouri, Keaton is defended by a guard with a reputation for being a talented defender: Anthony Robinson II (#0 is yellow). Keaton crosses the halfcourt line with his back hip into Robinson as a way to create separation from his defender and the ball. This happens only as long as it takes for Tomislav Ivisic to try and screen Robinson. Anthony goes over the screen and maintains position on Keaton.

Robinson applies pressure to Wagler once he is at the top of the key—well behind the three point line. Our guy does a good job of getting past the pressure under control. Wagler spins to his left, putting his man on his back hip yet again. Keaton is attacking off the bounce using his off hand against this athletic guard, and does a great job of creating space—utilizing some sound shoulder game with his right side, while simultaneously ripping the ball from the left side to his right.

His footwork and awareness are both accentuated once he gets past his man, only to be confronted by the help defense. Shawn Phillips Jr. (#15 in yellow) positions himself in the right spot to still protect the basket. Wagler’s gather is timed beautifully here because he gives himself enough space to sell an awesome up-fake to get Phillips off his feet. Keaton doesn’t rush—he doesn’t get excited with “happy feet,” nor does he throw the ball out to the perimeter. Instead, Keaton goes to his left hand to finish at the rim before Robinson can regain position to block or contest the shot.

Working to Score

This clip is one of the best encapsulations of what Keaton Wagler has brought to this Fighting Illini team. The ball is shot by Humrichous on the right wing at the beginning of this clip. Wagler is able to corral the offensive glass—something he’s done at a high level all season. Once he comes down with the ball, Wagler kicks the ball to Jason Jakstys (#31 in white) and relocates to the top of the key.

Wagler eventually gets the ball from Boswell and gets into his two-man game with David Mirkovic (#0 in white). Mirkovic sets a ghost screen to Keaton’s left, which allows our guy to attack to his left.

Wagler is defended by Christian Anderson (#4 in black)—a player that many regard as a top guard in this class. Keaton is able to physically blow past Anderson without really getting into him. Once he out-strides his man, he has another talented player to outwit—JT Toppin (#15 in black). Wagler is able to get into a Eurostep. This allows him to get past Toppin and finish with an inside hand layup.

Shooting

Floor Spacing

Keaton Wagler being the leading scorer on his team is, in part, due to the fact that he is a reliable scoring option off the ball. Not only is Wagler the leading scorer on the team, but he has the highest three-point percentage on the team at over 40%. His shooting motion is pure, and his touch is apparent.

This clip against Mizzou shows how Keaton gives plenty of value as a playmaking, floor spacing wing. The offense shown here from the Illini isn’t complex. David Mirkovic gets past his man, collapsing the defense. Mirkovic kicks the ball to the left corner, causing the defense to scramble. This leaves our guy open.

Humrichous passes to an open Wagler, who lets it fly for three points. If you look on Synergy, you’ll see that Keaton ranks in the 78th percentile when shooting off of the catch. When he is guarded, Keaton shoots about 35% from deep. When left open, that percentage leaps to almost 46%.

We’ve seen how Keaton can score when he is operating with the ball. The likely value that he will bring in his immediate usage in the NBA will be off the catch.

Shooting off the Bounce

His immediate role at the next level will likely come off the catch, but what makes Keaton such an intriguing talent is the level of craft and poise he has off the bounce at such a young age. In this clip against Ohio State, Wagler starts by giving the ball the ball up to Mirkovic just to get it back.

Now, our guy is defended by Brandon Noel (#14 in white)—a big man on the Buckeyes. Wagler sees that there is a positional advantage for him to exploit, and he goes hunting. Since we’ve seen that Keaton can drive and finish, Noel has to respect the initial dribble cadence that looks as if Wagler is going to his right. Once he gets Noel sliding one way, our guy snatches the ball back to the left to create enough separation to get his shot off.

The base mechanics with Wagler make him a natural shooter off the bounce. There are no strange foot mechanics, nor are there any unorthodox windups that require a set base for the shot to travel. We’ve already seen how smooth the stroke is and how reliable the touch is on other possessions. This play just highlights the multitude of ways that Keaton can make defenders pay as a shooter on top of everything else.

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The Dive (Defense)

The offensive side of his game is where even the most practical imagination can run a little wild when projecting Wagler’s basketball ceiling. That side of the floor is where Keaton can overcome the strength deficit many theorize about. But, on defense, how well can he hold up? Not too many rookies are particularly good on that side of the floor in general. How well can Wagler hold up?

Effectiveness on Guards

Again, normally, I am a bit more skeptical when it comes to being high on prospects that are relatively thin. What has made me more confident in Keaton’s projection is that he can buy himself time to develop his strength due to his effectiveness in defending smaller players.

Wagler’s idealized role will be some sort of creative wing player, in my opinion. That will eventually mean he will be required to guard wing players. In the meantime, Wagler has shown the ability to defend guards at a high level in college.

Beyond being trusted to handle the ball more as the season has continued, Keaton has taken to defending primary creators quite well. In this clip, we see him pick up Anthony Robinson II and immediately have to navigate against a screen. Our guy recovers to Robinson nicely, and even stunts to apply pressure to the ball on the block. Once his man gets the ball back, Keaton gets into position to challenge a positional shot.

Robinson opts to drive at Wagler. He tries to initiate separation with his right shoulder, but our guy stays on his line. Wagler sees that there is a spin loading up from his man, and does a fantastic job of playing him vertically—getting his hands and arms straight up in the air.

What makes this play so awesome is that Keaton does not reach for the candy that Robinson dangles; he plays fundamental defense—trusting that his length and positioning will create a tough enough look that Robinson won’t make the shot. Not only does Robinson not make the shot, but the ball doesn’t make it past Keaton’s outstretched hands.

Effectiveness on Bigger Guards

While Anthony Robinson is a quick, agile, and athletic guard, he himself isn’t the toughest player out there. As long as Keaton established position, he could certainly hold his own against him, right? How about against more of a “wrecking ball” type of guard? How about against one that is tough and savvy? How about a player like Bruce Thornton (#2 in white)?

Well, Keaton starts off defending John Mobley Jr. (#0 in white)—a player who doesn’t pose as much of a physical challenge. Ohio State sees this, and looks for a way to find a more advantageous matchup for their leading scorer. The Buckeyes go for a guard/guard screen that forces our guy onto Bruce. Once Thornton is aware of this, he runs Wagler into a screen. Wagler fights around the screen and recovers onto his man.

Thornton goes into a slight hesitation dribble while our guy is trying to reestablish his position. Thornton feels as if he has enough space to go into his midrange shot off the bounce. This is the type of shot Bruce likes, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile shooting off of the dribble (almost 64% on dribble jumper two pointers). Wagler sticks to Thornton and challenges the shot well without fouling, forcing the miss.

Struggles Against Size

It’s a very good thing for Keaton that he offers value defending in the backcourt at his current physical state, because his defensive concerns are magnified once he is matched up against players down the lineup. This is where he’ll give up shots closer to the rim, or even give up rebounds—allowing for multiple opportunities for the Illini’s opponents to score.

Jaylin Stewart (#3 in white) is a fine player, but he isn’t one of the premier perimeter players in college basketball; he doesn’t start for the team he plays for. Nonetheless, this is the matchup that our guy drew. And this is the guy that will shine some light on one of the chief concerns for Keaton’s projection.

UConn starts this clip off with Stewart kicking the ball to Silas Demary Jr. (#2 in white) on the left wing. Demary drives from the wing, getting to the same-side elbow. This draws in Keaton from his deny position, resulting in Jaylin being open at the top of the key. Demary kicks the ball out to Stewart. Stewart doesn’t even look to get the shot off despite the sheer space allotted to him. Instead, he looks to attack the recovering Wagler.

Stewart meets Keaton on the free-throw line with some contact. He then spins to the right side of the lane, which creates a ton of space to get into a shot. Jaylin gathers the ball in motion and goes into a running bank shot that he is able to get over our guy with relative ease.

The quality of shot Wagler gives up here to a solid—but not elite—player is one that wing-sized and forward-sized players are going to look for against him. This isn’t an effort thing from Keaton—nor is it a length issue. This hopefully temporary concern is linked to his current size and strength. This is where pause can take place when it comes to projecting Wagler.

Still, even with the defensive concerns, Keaton Wagler’s offense has made him a potential first round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft—not bad for someone who wasn’t a Top 100 player in his high school class just a few months ago.

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