Keshad Johnson is Still on the Rise
Keshad Johnson is Still on the Rise
Older prospects are generally viewed as a "What you see is what you get" predicament. But Keshad Johnson's upward offensive trajectory and defensive dominance set him apart.
Sometimes, you’ve got to take an L.
We’re always talking ball behind the scenes here at No Ceilings. Around this time last year, the transfer portal was popping, and San Diego State was coming off an impressive run to the Final Four. For that reason, it wasn’t a huge surprise when Keshad Johnson looked to move to a bigger program. When he landed at Arizona, our own Tyler Rucker was beyond excited. While diving into his film, Rucker mentioned that he thought Johnson was a guy we should be thinking about as we headed into the next draft cycle. I don’t remember the entirety of the conversation, but I remember being out on Johnson. He was a 6’7” dude who scored 7.7 PPG in the Mountain West. His playstyle was that of a more traditional power forward and he struggled with turnovers. I didn’t “see it” with him at a (very good) mid-major, and I certainly wasn’t expecting to see it with him at one college basketball’s premier programs.
WHOOPS.
Keshad Johnson had the best season of his college career under the brightest lights yet. Not only did he improve, but he improved substantially in a number of ways relevant to his NBA chances. Plus, the things that were already up to snuff remained. He was one of the most exciting players in college basketball last year, and now, he’s on the cusp of the NBA. Purely from an entertainment value standpoint, I couldn’t be happier to take an L on him becoming a real-deal NBA prospect. He’s a joy to watch—but from a front office standpoint, that doesn’t matter. The reason we’re really here is because if Johnson continues on his trajectory, he could deliver real value to an NBA team. Let’s get into what Johnson does well and where he’ll need to continue to improve to stick at the next level.
Defensive Dominance
Keshad Johnson’s defense will be what he hangs his hat on at the next level. At the NBA combine, Johnson measured at 6’6.25” barefoot with a 6’10.25” wingspan and a hulking weight of 224.0 pounds. He also had one of the best 3/4 court spring times and he tied for the top max leap vertical. To put it simply, he’s big, he’s strong, and he can move, making him one of the most versatile defenders in the class.
Johnson is exceedingly difficult to deal with on an island. His defensive fundamentals, from his stance to his hand placement, are exactly what teams will want to see. He’s fluid with his hips. He does a phenomenal job of containing the ball and cutting off advantageous driving angles. More often than not, opponents end up in the mid-range on the baseline, unable to generate any penetration whatsoever, or taking tough mid-range twos. Bigger opponents aren’t able to plow through him, and smaller guys aren’t able to best his blend of power and agility. It’s really hard to hold a driving lane when Johnson is throwing his body on you. Per Synergy, opponents posted a dismal eFG% of 17.8% when driving against Johnson. Even better, his motor is always running hot. Even when quicker guards are able to shake him, his recovery is sublime. While Johnson’s vertical leap showed that he can jump high, it’s the on-court functionality of that pop that matters. He’s fast off the floor to contest shots in the mid-range, and he gets up effortlessly from his slide when a driver tries to lob one over him at the rim.
These tools are on display in his ball screen defense, too. Johnson displays a keen awareness of where the screen is coming from, oftentimes avoiding them entirely. But even when he does get clipped, his strength, consistent drive to make multiple efforts, and recovery tools keep him in the play. Johnson also does a nice job of staying connected to the ball-handler without getting too handsy, ensuring advantageous positioning while avoiding unnecessary foul trouble. It’s tough to put Johnson in a bad spot, regardless of who is on the ball. That’s going to work wonderfully in his favor at the next level. Whether a situation sees him switched onto a smaller guard, or whether he has to avoid a screen while covering an inverted pick-and-roll action, Johnson is going to be up to the task.
He brings the goods as a team defender as well. One thing that stood out on tape was how well Johnson denies the ball. His foot speed and ability to simply boss guys around physically enables him to play his man tight off-ball when necessary. When he digs from the perimeter, his powerful and well-timed swipes help him to rack up steals, or at the very least, jostle the ball loose. His ground coverage is outstanding, as he can fly all over the floor rotationally and swat perimeter shots that others might not even be able to meaningfully contest. He’s a transition hustler, too, always sprinting back to prevent easy buckets on the other end.
In totality, Johnson has just about everything you could ask for in a modern defender. His 2.0 STL% and 2.7 BLK% meet the playmaking thresholds that NBA teams generally look for in forwards. He’s strong, he moves well laterally, and he can jump. Still, there’s a technical refinement to how he operates both on and off the ball. He’s going to be a genuine multi-positional defender that other teams struggle mightily to exploit. Coaches are going to love his physicality, agility, proficiency, and tenacity.
There is little doubt in my mind that Keshad Johnson has the ability to defend at an NBA level. Whether you want to look at it through a lens of skill, athleticism, or size, Johnson is ready to go. The question then becomes whether or not he has enough juice offensively to carve out a long-lasting position in the league.
Finding an Offensive Role
The offensive concerns with Johnson center around his jump shot and his ball skills. It’s tricky with him, because I’ve found myself struggling to put my foot down one way or another with both of these topics. There’s been a lot of, “this is an eye-of-the-beholder draft” talk all year (rightfully so), and few topics exemplify that quite like Johnson’s offensive skill set. To get the full picture, let’s take a look at both perspectives on this topic.
The Jump Shot, Glass Half Empty
Hey, it’s me, Evil Maxwell! I’m a big-time pessimist, and I think everyone stinks! At the NBA Combine, Keshad Johnson measured under 6’7”. As such, he really needs to shoot it. It’s tough for guys below that height to meaningfully contribute if they don’t take and make threes at a respectable clip. Sure, Johnson made 38.7% of his threes this year, but he only took 5.1 per 100 possessions and 93 total—91 of them were off the catch, and 52 of those were unguarded. Plus, if we broaden the sample size to include all of his college seasons, we’re looking at a career 30.9% free throw shooter and 64.2% free throw shooter. Let’s look at other upperclassmen who got drafted that fit similar criteria:
I’m not seeing a lot of knockdown guys here! You’re banking on a small sample size for a non-dynamic shooter.
The Jump Shot, Glass Half Full
Hey, it’s me, Good Maxwell! I’m a nice, cool guy, and people think I’m handsome. Anyway, I think when it comes to Keshad Johnson, his trajectory has to be taken into account. Some guys simply get better at basketball and improve at an area of the game they put focus and effort into in practice. Prior to this season, Johnson was indeed a dismal shooter. He shot 24.6% across 114 attempts. He was far less confident in his shot, taking only 3.4 attempts per 100 possessions during his first four college seasons. It looked a bit different, too. Not just from how it looks now, but from attempt to attempt.
Sometimes his feet were aligned to the left, other times they were aligned to the right. Sometimes his base was wide, other times it was more narrow. While the ball always started at his left hip, the ball path from that point onward was erratic. Sometimes he released it on his left side, other times in front of his face, and occasionally on the right side of his head. His older jumper tape was like a box of chocolates—you never knew what you were going to find.
The difference now is that Keshad Johnson is shooting a different shot than he was before. It’s a better, more consistent shot in terms of both results and mechanics. His pre-catch footwork is consistently the same. His base is stable and balanced. His right foot is slightly in front of the left, and both feet are aligned with the basket. The ball follows the same, straight-line trajectory off his body. Even when an opponent closes out hard, Johnson maintains the same motion and release. I get it—small sample size, lower volume, and a sudden uptick in efficiency. But Johnson went into the lab and reworked everything. Rather than punishing the previous version of him, it makes more sense to me to value this upward trajectory. He showed the awareness to recognize a problem, the willingness to fix it, and the capability to do so. That’s how you climb from 24.6% on 3.4 per 100 possessions to 38.7% on 5.2 attempts per 100 possessions. Those aren’t red-flag numbers for a pre-draft season, particularly given what Johnson is going to bring on the other end.
Ball Skills, Glass Half Empty
It’s me, Evil Maxwell again! Even if I indulge you on the shot, I’m not sure that’s enough. Just from a pure perimeter skill standpoint, Johnson is behind the curve. That’s one thing when it’s a raw, 19-year-old player with good physical tools. But we’re talking about a fifth-year player here. The lack of trust in his offensive skill set led to a lower usage rate, and his run-of-the-mill decision-making led to a low assist rate. If you look at seniors drafted since 2008 who were in the same ballpark as Johnson from a usage and assist rate standpoint, the median outcome is far from ideal:
The biggest success story on that list is Pat Connaughton. Jake Layman hung around but never really moved the needle. Jericho Sims and Miles Plumlee didn’t need those skills the same way Johnson does, because they were basically just downhill rollers. Maybe Hunter Tyson ends up sticking, but he was a far better shooter than Johnson. It’s not just the passing, he struggles as a driver, too. He’s upright, his handle gets high, and he doesn’t have any counters. Per Synergy, he posted a 31.8% eFG% on drives this season. This doesn’t look good for him.
Ball Skills, Glass Half Full
Good Maxwell is back again, and I’m here to talk to you about the importance of context when evaluating a prospect! I understand the concerns about Johnson’s ball handling and passing. I don’t believe them to be unfounded in the slightest. But there are ultimately three things here that we have to consider— his role, his improvements, and his ability to positively impact the game without the ball in his hands.
Tommy Lloyd’s job as the Head Coach of the Arizona Wildcats isn’t necessarily to develop a player’s draft stock, but to win games. To maximize the capability of his roster, it made the most sense to slot Johnson into a tertiary role. Caleb Love is at his best when he’s put in a microwave role and can get buckets when he’s hot. As their most electric self-creator, he had the highest usage role. Alongside Love were a number of trusted, established operators within the Arizona program. Lloyd had lots of experience with Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson. Kylan Boswell is the standard table-setting point guard. Those pieces were in place before Johnson got there. In the transfer portal era, we are going to see up-transfer mercenaries meant to complement the guys who are already there, and that’s what Johnson was. He was brought into the program to eat off the cooking of those around him, and he did a damn good job of it. He feasted in a lower usage role, posting a 61.6 TS%.
Let’s start with the passing stuff, though. Much like with Johnson’s jump shot, there’s been a real level of improvement here. While 1.8 APG to 1.6 TOV isn’t the stuff point-forwards are made of, it at least shows that there’s a level of reliability to Johnson as a decision-maker. What’s more, his 1.8 APG nearly doubled his previous career high of 1.0 APG. There was in-season growth when it came to cutting down on his turnovers, too.
First 18 games:
1.8 APG, 2.0 TOVLast 18 games:
1.8 APG, 1.1 TOV
As the Wildcats got deeper into conference play, Johnson caught up to the speed of high-major basketball. We’ll get to his attacking in a minute, but right now, Johnson is best served when moving toward the basket. As the season progressed, opponents respected this, which gave him a real level of downhill gravity. He did a much better job of keeping his head up and making sharp interior passes, whether they be to dunker spot bigs or spontaneous cutters. His NBA role will likely never require him to be a full-fledged offensive hub, but he began to make the types of reads he’ll need to make on a consistent basis while limiting his mistakes during the latter part of the schedule.
I won’t deny that Johnson’s handle and driving game are a work in progress. Still, it’s hard to write off how effective he’s been able to make himself inside the arc, and the fact that he has a potent first step certainly bodes well for future development. But even if he still struggles with his handle, there are going to be ways to utilize him effectively within an offensive system. After all, he did convert 70.1% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season.
A big part of Johnson’s finishing prowess is his combination of explosiveness, strength, and toughness. Per BartTorvik, Johnson registered 49 dunks this season, good for 34th in Division I and fourth among players 6’7” and under. They don’t all come in transition, either. According to Synergy, 23 of those jams came in a halfcourt setting. Yes, Johnson might not be the most polished self-creator, but he really knows how to play off his teammates. He shows great instincts as a cutter, both along the baseline and with 45 degree angles. Once he has a runway and pops off one foot, it’s over. His physicality allows him to act as an effective screener, so teams that already have a well-spaced floor could find tremendous utility in Johnson as a roll-man. Additionally, a well-spaced floor could allow him to thrive on the offensive glass if a team wants to utilize him in that way. Even alongside a bruising big like Oumar Ballo, Johnson managed to grab 2.0 offensive rebounds per game while posting an 8.0 ORB% that grades out comfortably above average for a forward prospect.
Do I wish I felt better about Johnson as a ball handler and distributor? Absolutely. But if nothing else, there’s concrete statistical evidence that shows he’s headed in the right direction. Plus, I don’t know that he needs to be great in these areas to find a role given his off-ball value as a screener and roll man. There are outcomes where he can survive in the NBA simply by reaching competence in these areas, so long as the shot is okay.
Conclusion
I get the hang-ups with Keshad Johnson. He’s an older prospect. He’s under 6’7” barefoot and he only had one good shooting season, which came on low-to-moderate volume. There’s a chance other teams simply don’t respect him from deep and play way off him. His ball-handling skills and passing aren’t where you’d like them to be for a modern wing. But still, I find him preferable to many of his peers. From a pure physicality and athleticism standpoint, he’s as ready for the NBA as it gets. He’s entirely comfortable acting in a complementary offensive role without the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s going to be a problem for just about everybody. Best of all, he improved dramatically in his first high-major season.
I have Keshad Johnson in the early-to-middle part of the second round. If nothing else, I see him as a stellar defender with excellent physical tools and a high motor who can eat innings if need be. The question is just if he has enough offensive juice to become more than that. Ideally, he can become an ultra-physical, 3-and-D forward who attacks the rim. But I also wouldn’t rule out quirkier paths where he still sticks as a dive man on a team that has great spacing around him. His work rate and athleticism are going to give him more outs than most prospects with shooting concerns. While I’m not entirely convinced that everything will come together perfectly for him, his upward trajectory makes it difficult to say that he won’t get to a place where he’s an everyday player. Generally, when we talk about older prospects, we’re talking about a, “you get what you get” predicament. But here, we’ve got someone who is still on the rise. I’ve been wrong about Keshad Johnson once, and I’d like to avoid that happening a second time.