Kobe Bufkin: The Essential Guard
Kobe Bufkin has all the tools to be a major contributor for a playoff team one day. He's the type of guard that any team should be excited to draft, even in the lottery.
Recently I went to Costco with my wife to buy more stuff than we needed to continue to hug the poverty line. While unloading all of our stuff from the trunk of my car, I pulled out my wagon and started loading all of our groceries into it. As I loaded the wagon with over 400 dollars worth of groceries, I was so ridiculously proud of the purchase before the purchase. I loved having my big blue wagon, which was ridiculously versatile, that could load all my groceries. Whenever we go to a park and have to load up chairs, parasols, food, and more, my trusty wagon always comes in clutch. Instead of making 4-5 trips back and forth from the car, I can load up my wagon once, and I’m flying high. Peep the image and link below:
https://www.uline.com/BL_1665/Utility-Wagon
As a member of the Church of Consumerism, I can promise that adding this wagon to your home will drastically improve your life. The wagon is ridiculously sturdy, can handle so much weight, and the handle is perfectly weighted and ridiculously good for maneuvering even in the tightest of spaces. This is a lot of words about a wagon that probably none of you will buy, but if you’re of the elite few that do choose to buy this wagon, you will be a legendary human being and living a 1% top-tier life. Consider what I’m offering here, and ask yourself why you wouldn’t want that.
Kobe Bufkin is the Uline Utility Wagon of the 2023 NBA Draft class. Bufkin is a 6’4” guard out of the University of Michigan who put up 14.0 PTS, 4.5 AST, and 2.9 AST per game on shooting splits of 48.2/35.5/84.9. I want to start by saying the numbers are good, but as always, the numbers only tell a part of the story. I won’t beat around the bush here, but I think Bufkin is the type of guard that can fit on almost every team. We’ll get into some comps later, but teams in the lottery will watch his film and get him into their gyms and realize Bufkin is a guy that could play in a Conference Finals game.
Talking about Bufkin in the lottery may be a little too spicy for some, but who cares? Draft season is the perfect time to question all that you think you know and to pretend to know all the things you actually don’t know. Let’s live in the madness of the unknown and try to make some sense of it all.
Kobe Bufkin is an offensive weapon:
Before I get into the finer details of Bufkin’s game, I want to say that watching him play on the offensive end of the floor is really aesthetically pleasing. Bufkin has these crazy long strides that make him look ridiculously fluid whenever he’s moving with or without the ball in his hands. He has a nice handle and does a good job of staying low to the ground and using his length to keep the ball away from pesky defenders. He doesn’t have the world’s tightest handle, but it’s more than good enough to cause people problems. Numbers and analytics are awesome and help us better understand the game, but sometimes it’s nice just to watch a guy play and say, damn, he makes basketball look beautiful. That’s exactly how I feel about Bufkin; he’s the type of guy that doesn’t get me down when he misses a shot. I don’t worry if his percentages dip slightly after a tough game. All I care about with him is what I see and how he makes the game look. He makes the game look easy, he always looks to be in control, and he plays with a quiet confidence that doesn’t belong to everyone.
Let’s get into the magic he makes on the offensive end:
Bufkin is a fun offensive player because he isn’t a one-trick pony. You can see the skeleton of many different skills that, with the right coaching and situation, could lead to a really good lead guard. Let’s start with the shooting because shooting is fun to talk about.
As mentioned above, the shooting splits were pretty good during his sophomore season. 48.2/35.5/84.9 splits are beautiful to look at, but of course, they don’t tell the whole story. The first thing to point out is that the volume wasn’t as high as you’d like, but you have to consider the fact that he was the third option on a Michigan team where Hunter Dickinson was getting 600 touches in the paint every game, and Jett Howard was second in line after him. With Dickinson getting a big chunk of the ball, Bufkin was asked to play a supporting role, and I thought he did a great job. Although Bufkin only took 3.7 FTAs per game and 2.6 FTAs per game, it was still a big step up from his freshman season, and the percentages went up all across the board. If you watch the compilation below, you’ll see that Bufkin was an essential part of the Michigan offense because of his shot-making as a catch-and-shoot shooter but also as a guy who could go and get his own shot.
According to Synergy Sports, Bufkin was in the 60th percentile in points per shot rank on off-the-dribble jumpers and the 56th percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Both percentages are good and speak to Bufkin being a reliable shooter and offensive weapon for the Wolverines. Off the dribble, Bufkin looked good getting to his spots and pulling up in the mid-range. As I’ve mentioned a million times already on pods, almost all the elite scorers in the league are absolute killers in the mid-range. I won’t go as far as saying that I think Bufkin is a killer in the mid-range, but I like that he has that in his bag, and I think he’s only going to get better as he adds more strength. Bufkin already has a good enough handle and footwork to get to his spots, but the strength will only help with the space creation.
As much as Bufkin improved his shooting, it is important to note that he is far from a perfect shooter. In the compilation I posted below, you can see some of his misses last season, and you’ll notice that he did miss some wide-open looks pretty badly and, at times, had some tough-looking misses. After reviewing his shooting form in detail with my co-host Corey Tulaba on the DraftDaq NBA Podcast, Corey brought two minor mechanical issues with Bufkin to my attention. The first thing with Bufkin on his ugly misses is he’s usually flaring out his left elbow on his shot. When you watch many of his makes, his elbow is beautifully tucked in, and the shot looks compact and clean. I think, at times, it’s a focus issue where he forgets to keep the elbow tucked, leading to some ugly misses. Another thing we noticed was his base could be a little narrow at times and takes some of the power away from his shot. Not saying he needs to take his shots spread eagle, but a little bit more width in his base may help because he did miss short a good amount.
The last aspect of Bufkin’s shooting that needs to be mentioned is his finishing at the rim. Bufkin is a crafty finisher who can finish with both hands and uses hesitations and savvy to finish at the rim. Michigan didn’t run a ton of sets for him. Still, towards the end of the year, with Jett Howard out with injury, they did run more pin-downs and stagger screens into DHOs to get him going downhill, and he was able to use those opportunities to flash some awesome finishing at the rim. The thing that really helps Bufkin with his finishing is his footwork and his length. I don’t have an official measurement of his wingspan, but you can see it on tape; the guy has really long arms and knows how to use them to his advantage. I enjoyed how he uses his footwork to get by guys and finish around defenders as well. Bufkin lacks elite speed and burst, but like a Jalen Brunson, he knows how to use his footwork, hesitations, and head fakes to get to his spots and finish over longer and bigger defenders. For Bufkin to become a truly elite finisher at the rim, I believe he needs to continue putting on some weight. I think this is 100% possible because he does have a good frame on him. He can put on some mass like a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Immanuel Quickley, which will help him finish through contact more. With all the length, footwork, and savvy, it’s important to note that Bufkin also has soft touch with both of his hands and that ambidexterity will be huge for him, especially while he’s adding more mass.
To go with all the scoring, Bufkin also has some passing chops to him. On the season, he only averaged 2.9 AST per game, but as I mentioned before, he didn’t have the ball in his hands a huge amount, and of course, playing next to Dug Mcdaniel as well meant he didn’t have the ball in his hands as much and didn’t have as many opportunities to create. If you look at when he had the ball in his hands, though, he did flash some good vision. As I mentioned, with his finishing, Bufkin can make passes with both hands. There were a couple of possessions where he was running pick and roll, and he went to his right hand, and as the defense shifted over to the strong side, Bufkin showed the ability to make some off-hand, live-dribble weakside hits that were pretty mesmerizing to watch. But as always, I’m not going to freak out about a live-dribble weakside hit; ultimately, I’m trying to make a point that he has some of that in his arsenal. He’s a guy who doesn’t have tunnel vision and is willing and able to make the right pass when needed.
When you start putting the offensive tools together, you can start to see the foundation of a future lead guard. I understand that we need to see him do all of this with more of the ball, play on a higher level, and work on his body. The encouraging thing for me, though, is that his floor as a guy who at least knows how to play off-ball and on-ball is hard not to be excited about.
As exciting as his offensive outlook is, I don’t think his potential on the defensive side falls behind so much!
He’ll be good enough on defense:
Bufkin’s marquee skill on the defensive side of the ball is going to be his hands. Bufkin will not amaze you with the best footwork, chest-to-chest power, or anticipation. While watching Bufkin on the defensive side of the ball, I noticed that he tried his best to leverage his skills to the best of his abilities. Bufkin has good enough feet and hips to compete and stay in front of quicker guards, he has the length to help compensate when he does get beat with quickness, and he uses his lightning-quick hands to cause problems from ball handlers. If you watch some of the clips I compiled, he really caused some problems for a lot of ball handlers in his conference. As much as I like his quick hands and willingness to fight to stay in front of guys, I can’t ignore the fact that he was prone to getting bullied. Obviously, we’re beating the dead horse with this take, but the lack of strength hurt him against physical guards and when he had to switch on to bigger dudes. I also did feel like he got destroyed on a lot of screens, so that screen navigation is definitely going to have to improve.
Now I understand that I didn’t have much to say about his defense, but that’s the point. I think Bufkin will be a decent defender, and as his strength improves, I think he can become a good defender. But the main point I wanted to make with this piece is that Bufkin will be a true offensive weapon with the ability to hold his own on the defensive side of the ball. When you look at all the teams in the playoffs right now, many of them have a guard like Bufkin. A guy that can play on the ball and provide spacing and secondary creation. Look at guys like, Mike Conley, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, Malcolm Brogdon, D’Angelo Russell, and Malik Monk. I’m not saying Bufkin is a one-to-one comp to any of those guys, but you can see the point I’m trying to make. On the low end of his ceiling, I think he can become one of these guys. On the high end, I could see him being like Mike Conley when he was in his prime, even a taller Jalen Brunson type of player. If I had to go with an old-school guy, I also saw a less flashy Nick Van Exel as a comp. It might help to watch this game from later on in his career.
Kobe Bufkin was a fun eval for me. His strengths and weaknesses are clear. He’s going to be an entertaining offensive player that teams are going to want to cultivate. He has enough juice on the defensive end, and you know he can play both on the ball and off of it. Considering all that, seeing why he’d be great doesn’t take a million words. Go check out his tape for yourself; there’s a ton to like, and I guarantee you’ll probably end up higher on him than you thought.