Let's Not Blow This Out of Proportion
The early stage of Draft season is a popular one for overreactions. As an Agent of Chaos I am warning you...let's not blow this out of proportion.
“Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, we’re so glad you could attend come inside, come inside…” (Emerson, Lake & Palmer, 1974)
The early stages of the NBA Draft season can send out a variety of different emotions. On one hand it’s exciting. Basically like being on a beach on a tropical island and jumping into an ocean that is 98% guaranteed to not have the shark from Jaws reappear. Everything seems just perfect, it’s not too hot or too cold outside. Life is damn good and Draft season can be the exact same way. We suddenly have this mass flurry of hoops to evaluate and you basically just jump on the rollercoaster and buckle up for a wild ride.
But there’s also a horrifying world to Draft season. This is pretty much the nightmare fuel that drives individuals like Freddy Krueger to have so much power. You know how Jason just keeps coming back from the dead in all of those movies? Well…the secret is he’s returning to punish those individuals who overreact too quickly to the opening weeks of Draft season.
That’s right boys and girls, I’m here to educate you on why we need to all pump the brakes a bit when it comes to some of the “slow” starts involving some of the notable prospects.
If you’ve gotten to know me over the last couple of years, you should know that I have a dangerous obsession with the criminal psychotic mastermind known as The Joker. As someone who is personally a fan of chaos, I understand and respect the individuals that put out early season NBA Draft Boards and Mock Drafts. Personally, I compare them to how the Joker takes an entire gallon of gasoline and proceeds to burn a pile of money that belonged to the mob just to “send a message.” It’s not that I don’t appreciate the process of making Big Boards and Mock Drafts early in the year, it’s just that there’s simple so many variables that can change rapidly in the upcoming weeks. Of course as I write this, my team at No Ceilings continues to remind me that our first Big Board will be released later this month… “Madness is like gravity all it takes is a little push.”
There’s been a number of “hyped” NBA prospects in the collegiate ranks this year that have simply gotten off to a slower start than we had hoped for. I’m here to tell you that’s completely okay. I’m one that likes to stress patience. Not every top recruit coming out of high school hits the ground running. Some struggle to adjust to the new situations, new roles, or just the general playing style. It can end up taking some time for a young talent to develop some self confidence before they start to put everything together. Don’t believe me? Well here’s a teaser for you. Purdue guard Jaden Ivey has been one of the hottest names in NBA Draft circles as of late. Ivey’s first 17 games last year, he was averaging 8.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game while shooting 36.1% from the field. His last six games? Ivey went on to average 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks while shooting 46.8% from the field.
Let me show you some other players in the past who have struggled to find their groove in the beginning of the season.
THE PAST
Brandon Ingram, F, Duke
Selected 2nd overall by the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2016 NBA Draft
First 7 Games at Duke:
10.9 PTS, 3.7 REB, 38.8 FG%, 24.0 3P%, 56.3 FT%
Final Season Numbers:
17.3 PTS, 6.8 REB, 44.2 FG%, 41.0 3P%, 68.2 FT%
Brandon Ingram came into his freshman season with some buzz in the draft world. A lengthy forward with offensive firepower, Ingram was drawing some early lottery expectations to start out the beginning of the college basketball season. But it didn’t click right away for Ingram. His first seven games at Duke saw Ingram struggle to find his rhythm, as he went on to shoot just 24.0% from downtown. It wasn’t until his eighth game of the year in which Ingram started to go on a warpath. His following 19 games would see Ingram go on to average 19.7 points per game while shooting 44.6% from downtown. There’s a number of players that I’m going to talk about from this year’s college basketball class of prospects that have struggled out of the gate and it wouldn’t surprise me if the light suddenly starts to turn on just like it did for Ingram.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Kentucky
Selected 11th overall by the Charlotte Hornets (Traded to LAC)
First 6 Games at Kentucky:
8.3 PTS, 3.2 REB, 3.7 AST, 54.1 FG%, 40.0 3P%
Final Season Numbers:
14.4 PTS, 4.1 REB, 5.1 AST, 48.5 FG%, 40.4 3P%
Another player who has become a rising star in the NBA who didn’t hit the ground running to start the year out in college basketball. On paper it looks as if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t necessarily “struggle” when you look at his shooting percentages in his first six games, but it took some time for the offensive production to come around on a more serious level. Even if you come into your first season with some hype, it doesn’t mean that everything is going to come easy for you. SGA is another prime example that it takes a different amount of time for each player to find their groove. In his last 10 college games, SGA went on to average 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.4 steals while shooting 51.3% from the field and 50% from downtown.
Tyler Herro, G, Kentucky
Selected 13th in the 2019 NBA Draft by the Miami Heat
First 6 Games at Kentucky:
10.0 PTS, 3.7 REB, 2.8 AST, 39.3 FG%, 29.6 3P%
Final Season Numbers:
14.0 PTS, 4.5 REB, 2.5 AST, 46.2 FG%, 35.5 3P%
Tyler Herro was another player that didn’t come out of the gates on fire to start out his first year at Kentucky. For what a lethal outside shooter that Herro has become in the NBA, he went on to shoot just 29.6% during his first six games of the year. It didn’t take long for Herro to start to find his groove after, as he started to climb up draft boards with his smooth shooting stroke from outside. During his freshman year at Kentucky, Herro had an impressive 8-game stretch that started to get the attention of NBA scouts in a hurry. During those games, Herro went on to average 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 51.8% from the field and 51.4% from downtown. All some players need is a solid stretch for things to suddenly “click.”
Kelly Oubre, F, Kansas
Selected 15th overall in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Atlanta Hawks (Traded To WAS)
First 9 Games at Kansas:
3.4 PTS, 2.2 REB, 0.4 AST, 34.8 FG%, 37.5 3P%
Final Season Numbers:
9.3 PTS, 5.0 REB, 0.8 AST, 44.4 FG%, 35.8 3P%
Yes, I’m DIVING DEEP. It’s always fascinating to take a look at some of the previous prospects and see how they started out their collegiate careers. That’s why you’re here and that’s why I’m still writing. I found it too fascinating to not include Kelly Ouuuuuuuubre in this article. Yes, you’re reading those numbers correctly because I basically had to convince myself that I didn’t make a mistake numerous times. It was an extremely slow start for Kelly Oubre as he was battling to get consistent playing time for Kansas. The light started to come on for Oubre during his 9th game of the season, in which he put up a 23-point, 10 rebound performance against Utah. It would be the beginning of an impressive 9-game stretch for Oubre that saw him average 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game while shooting 48.9% from the field and 43.2% from downtown.
Jaden McDaniels, F, Washington
Selected 28th in the 2020 NBA Draft by the Minnesota Timberwolves
First 6 Games at Washington:
13.8 PTS, 5.5 REB, 2.7 AST, 38.9 FG%, 28.6 3P%
Final Season Numbers:
13.0 PTS, 5.8 REB, 2.1 AST, 40.5 FG%, 33.9 3P%
If you follow the NBA Draft closely, then you should have known that I couldn’t leave Jaden McDaniels off of this list. Coming into the 2019-20 college basketball season, the buzz around Jaden McDaniels as a prospect was absolutely SCORCHING. Many were considering him a favorite to potentially end up in the Top 5 of the upcoming Draft class. A lengthy forward with an outside shot who was drawing plenty of Kevin Durant comparisons (can we please stop doing that), McDaniels stepped onto campus at the University of Washington with some massive build-up. Unfortunately things didn’t start out as promising as some NBA personnel had hoped for. He posted some respectable numbers in his first 6 games of the year, but the efficiency and shot selection left many scratching their heads. Fast forward to the end of the season and McDaniels saw his shooting percentages improve, but there were still questions about his fit at the NBA level. Now, the Minnesota Timberwolves forward looks to be a player who is slowly turning into one of the more exciting raw two-way forwards in the league.
THE CURRENT
Caleb Houstan, F, Michigan
Stats As of Now (11/30/21):
6 G, 8.8 PTS, 4.2 REB, 1.8 AST, 34.7 FG%, 25.8 3P%
This is where I’m going to have some serious fun and I doubt that anyone will remind me of this article months down the road if all of this comes back to bite me. But sometimes you just got to “introduce a little anarchy.” Michigan freshman Caleb Houstan came into the year with some intriguing buzz. If you watched his play this recent summer in the u19 for Team Canada, then you should know that Houstan has the potential to be a HECK of a player at the next level. Although his production so far this year looks a bit terrifying on paper, I’m not worried at all about the talented forward finding his groove eventually. Our own Tyler Metcalf even talked about the 18-year-olds ability to impact the game without scoring, specifically with his awareness and passing ability, in one of his most recent articles.
Max Christie, G, Michigan State
Stats As of Now (11/30/21):
7 G, 7.9 PTS, 3.3 REB, 1.6 AST, 33.3 FG%, 25.9 3P%
Another prospect who I’m extremely intrigued by is Michigan State freshman guard Max Christie. There was some late lottery buzz starting to boil in the kitchen before the college basketball season started. While I know this is a popular time of the year for overreactions and for movement when it comes to Big Boards and Mock Drafts, I still do believe that Christie could put together a solid stretch of performances and heat up his draft stock in a hurry. The 6’6” wing is smooth with his offensive game and the shot is much better than his percentages might tell you. Both Christie and Houstan are players who I believe it’s only a matter of time before they start to catch fire.
Peyton Watson, SF, UCLA
Stats As of Now (11/30/21):
7 G, 4.6 PTS, 4.6 REB, 1.1 AST, 34.1 FG%, 11.1 3P%
I got to spend some time in Las Vegas recently with Albert Ghim (still scarred from the experience) taking a look at a number of 2022 NBA Draft prospects from powerhouse teams such as UCLA and Gonzaga. One of the players I was so intrigued to get an up-close look at was UCLA freshman forward Peyton Watson. You can absolutely see the intrigue and excitement when you talk about a player with the amount of raw potential that Watson has. The problem is you most likely read that previous sentence without focusing on the key word. RAW.
I’m still a big believer in the talent that Watson has, but I think he might have the longest road ahead out of all of the prospects on this list. Watson shocked me with his overall length and size in-person. But I do believe that he’s going to need some time to develop the offensive side of his game, specifically the outside shot. It wouldn’t surprise me if he takes a while to build some confidence, especially playing alongside a number of talented veterans on a deep UCLA roster. While Watson might struggle for a bit, I still think he could start to find his rhythm throughout this year, especially with his ability on the defensive side of the ball.
AJ Griffin, SF, Duke
Stats As of Now (11/30/21):
7 G, 4.6 PTS, 2.1 REB, 0.4 AST, 46.4 FG%, 40.0 3P%
“I’m like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn’t know what to do if I caught one, you know, I just do…things.” That’s pretty much how I feel about Duke freshman forward AJ Griffin. If you don’t know the story, let me catch you up in a hurry. Griffin was supposed to be another lethal part of the Duke rotation. A 6’6” wing who has an NBA-ready body, Griffin is a physically imposing machine with his play on the court. Unfortunately the talented freshman suffered a knee injury before the college basketball season, and Griffin just hasn’t seemed to find his rhythm completely for the Blue Devils. The lack of consistent playing time makes you wonder if Duke is trying to slowly ease Griffin back into things. The talented freshman has struggled with inconsistent play so far, but caught fire in a home game that saw him finish with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting in just 21 minutes. Griffin will have some folks scared about his health moving forward, but I have weird vibes that the Blue Devils are just waiting to unleash him. Call me crazy, it’s okay…just let me keep believing a little bit longer you thief of joy.
Draft season is a magical time of the year and it’s easy to overreact to some slow starts with basketball prospects around the world. The harsh truth we have to realize is that plenty of young players will face challenges when it comes to finding their rhythm early in the year. All it takes is a solid stretch of games for a player to confirm his status as a notable NBA Draft prospect. Some prospects hit the ground running and quickly get all of the “buzz” or attention around Draft circles. Other prospects start to get rolling as conference play nears. If you can learn one thing from this article, “Let’s not blow this out of proportion.”
There behind the glass stands a real blade of grass, be careful as you pass move along move along. Great stuff as always, thanks for all you do!