Mackenzie Mgbako: The Slept-On Sophomore Shooter
Mgbako is one of the best shooting prospects in this year's class. Why isn't he recognized accordingly? PLUS: Stephen's Scouting Notes!
I’m back in my regular routine since returning to writing last week. In my debut piece of the season, I wrote about how coming into a season/draft cycle at a different point than others can be uniquely advantageous, and I truly feel like it can be. When I fire up the film, I’m not as inclined to be married to what others are seeing or doing in terms of rankings. There is a little bit of pressure that comes along with that, though.
“Am I not seeing something obvious?”, I occasionally ask myself. I mean, if several other talented and respected scouts and evaluators feel a certain way, how can I possibly think more or less of a prospect? Sure, I could put on the mask of defiance and pretend that I’m not phased by the influence of consensus. Though I am less and less swayed by popular opinion the more I do this, I do consider what others are saying. I think, to some degree, that’s actually okay. Establishing checks and balances is perfectly fine.
On the other hand, I do love getting to be “all in” on a player that isn’t getting the recognition I feel they should be. Admittedly, I do get a little bit of a buzz when I speak on such a player and get some assurance from “consensus”. Being the one to bring in a fresh set of eyes can be fun. Even though that view may not always be well-received, I remind myself how consensus is wrong all of the time. As long as there is a sound philosophy (emphasis on “sound”) that gives these takes some “legs” underneath them, there is no “wrong” way to evaluate prospects.
I hear you all asking: “What’s your point, Stephen?”—I’m getting there.
Since I’ve been back, I’ve consumed as much film as I can. I now have over 150 prospect profiles created and—I would argue—I’ve laid eyes on the majority of names that are likely to be drafted. I have a bag of takes that I’m pacing myself with just to get some assurance and to allow some prospects to change my mind. With that being said, one player that has caught my eye is today’s featured prospect: MacKenzie Mgbako.
The Buildup
Mgbako came into last season as the 10th-ranked prospect per RSCI. This was ahead of now-NBA pros like Jared McCain and Yves Missi. The idea behind loving a player like Mackenzie was easy: he’s big and had an all-around game. It was easy to see why schools like Duke and Kansas were so high on him, but he would ultimately commit to play for Indiana.
Mackenzie quickly found his way into a big role with the Hoosiers, starting in all 33 games he played for Coach Mike Woodson. He had a fine season, as he went on to average over 12 PPG and 4 RPG. While he was productive, Mgbako didn’t have the sort of consistency scouts and evaluators wanted to see. His biggest areas of concern coming into his freshman season were finishing and defensive consistency, and those areas were among the primary reasons he wasn’t among those declaring for the 2024 NBA Draft.
How has MacKenzie improved from last season? Let’s see.
The Dive
The Offense
Last year, Mgbako had a sub-40% field goal percentage while averaging 0.951 points per possession (PPP). He struggled to score at the rim, finishing in the 29th percentile when shooting in the paint. While his paint scoring was almost expected to be a work in progress, he also struggled to shoot it from deep. Mackenzie shot almost five attempts per game and was under 33% on his three-pointers. This season, Mgbako is scoring almost 7% more efficiently on his two pointers and 5% better from distance.
Shooting
This has been the calling card for Mgbako since high school, and it’s nice to see how Mackenzie has been able to actualize that shooting this year. He’s connected on 37.8% of his threes on 9.5 threes per 100. This volume has given his draft stock the surge that simply was not there his freshman season.
Here’s an example of how Mgbako (#21 in white) has weaponized his three-pointer this year. Indiana is running a BLOB set to get him open in the corner. Mackenzie runs off of the screen set for him to get an open three. Rutgers does a good job navigating the screen, which forces our guy to make a split decision. Mgbako sells his pump fake masterfully and dribbles off to his left. This quick moves frees him up enough to get his shot off cleanly. Buckets.
He isn’t just an out-of-bounds set specialist; take a look at this action against Providence. Indiana sets some stagger screens along the baseline for Mackenzie to run off. Look at how he gets squared up coming off of the screens to knock down the triple—he knows it’s good.
This was not something that Mgbako was doing last season to the same degree. As a freshman, Mackenzie was in the 43rd percentile in PPP shooting while coming off of a screen. This year, he ranks in the 93rd percentile off of such shots. On these off-screen threes, he connects on over 62%. But what I love most about Mackenzie this season is how much more effective he has been inside the arc.
This clip illustrates the confidence that Mgbako has in his shot from multiple levels. Penn State does a good job of sticking to our guy on this play, forcing him to reconsider his plan of attack. Mackenzie puts his back to the basket, allowing his body to shield the defender away from the ball. The belief in his shot is on full display as Mgbako spins to his left and fades on a long two, cashing in the jumper.
MacKenzie wasn’t connecting on these shots last season.
Consistent Finishing
When it came to converting at the rim during his freshman campaign, Mgbako ranked in the 29th percentile. With a player of his dimensions and capabilities, this was a major red flags for scouts and evaluators. This year, on a similar percentage of shots coming from the paint, Mgbako ranks in the 75th percentile at the rim.
Mackenzie can now take advantage of defenders that think he only knows how to take threes, start feeling himself, and camp out in a corner. In this clip against South Carolina, he does just that. While his team is running a high pick and roll on the left side, Mgbako starts off on the same-side corner. As the ball handler continues to his right and gets to the right elbow, Mackenzie’s defender has to make a business decision.
Most teams run plays out of this set. If you’re defending Mgbako, you’re prioritizing three things in your help positioning. One, you want the ball handler to know you’re there—you want them to reconsider attacking the paint because you’ll rotate over and stop them. Secondly, you want to make sure that the screener doesn’t have a clean dive to the rim should their defender be sealed off. Positioning yourself correctly should prevent the ball handler from throwing the roller into trouble. Lastly, you don’t want to help off of MacKenzie too far because he can punish you with a three. What the defender didn’t account for was Mgbako making a timely baseline cut prior to his teammate, Malik Reneau, clogging up the paint. His defender, Collin Murray-Boyles (#30 in black), got caught watching the ball and the screener, which gave our guy the option to steal some easy points. This is smart basketball.
Passing
What Mgbako needs to build upon isn’t all that different than what other shooting prospects in this class need to either. One area that has seen a slight uptick in between last season and this one is the effectiveness of his passing. If you look at the counting stats between the two seasons, you’ll only see a bump of 0.2 APG. That’s a modest increase for sure, but his assist percentage has gone up by 2%. Again, modest, but this is a positive trend in the right direction.
Here’s a clip from the Penn State game that shows some great recognition on what the defense is trying to do when defending Mackenzie. Indiana has a set up to give our guy a look from deep on this play, but State does a decent job of forcing him to make a play off of the dribble. His big man, Oumar Ballo (#11) does a pretty good job of slipping the screen to present himself open. Penn State blitzes Mgbako—which wouldn’t have been a bad move last season—but he does a great job of seeing his teammate open in the corner. This is a fantastic understanding of where to move the ball while also making this pass off of a live dribble.
The rest of what Mackenzie would need to build upon is how to make well-timed, connective passes. Here is an example of such a pass that plays off of his shooting gravity nicely. Mgbako does well to run hard off of the screen set by Reneau to catch the ball on the elbow extended. Reneau’s man helps off to contest our guy because of the shooting threat he is. Mackenzie’s man is still recovering from the screen, which frees up Malik on the post to convert an easy look. Keeping the ball moving will be key for Mgbako’s continued development.
The Defense
This has been an area of concern for Mgbako since making the leap to college hoops. As a freshman, Mackenzie graded out poorly defending the ball-handler in pick-and-roll sets. He was also below average guarding away from the ball on screen plays. Just simply putting a body on Mgbako was a smart thing to do for teams on offense. Mackenzie has done a good job of working to improve his defensive faults this year.
This clip helps illustrate how Mgbako has gone from 3rd percentile defending-pick-and-roll ball handlers to 74th this year. He does a good job of feeling the screen and getting skinny over the top of it to stay with his man. Mackenzie sticks with his man all the way down to the paint and through a counter move. Once his man picks up the ball, our guy does a very good job of getting vertical to challenge the shot. This delays the attempt long enough for Ballo to come from the weak side and swat the shot.
Here is a great play that shows Mgbako’s growth in his play away from the ball. Minnesota runs an action to get the ball deep on the right block. Once the entry pass is made and the ball is secured, Ballo rotates over to double the ball on the block. Ballo’s man actually does a really good job of flashing to the paint for what looks to be two easy points. Once the pass is made, Mackenzie rotates off of his man and high-point blocks this attempted dunk from behind. Incredible timing.
This play is against a pretty well-known prospect, Ace Bailey (#4 in red). Ace is running a high pick-and-roll on the right wing, which frees him up from our guy. Mackenzie does a good job of recovering and reestablishing good defensive position as Bailey gets to the left post. Ace goes to one of his favorite moves as he plants his left foot to pivot back to the lane. Mgbako’s footwork actually closely mimics that of Ace, and he does a great job of contesting while maintaining good position. Some will argue that this is the type of shot Bailey wants—and he might. However, the pressure that Mgbako puts on Ace forces him to be perfect in order for this shot to go in.
Curtains
Mackenzie Mgbako’s growth in his sophomore season has been something I’ve thoroughly enjoyed. The boost in his efficiency shows improved strength, comfort, and some promise of continued upward trajectory. Standing at 6’8”, Mgbako possesses the kind of frame that NBA teams want. He provides a premium skill on a substantial volume, along with rebounding at a solid volume.
He has his faults. He isn’t a world-beater defensively, though he has a decent block percentage. He isn’t very creative off of the bounce. He doesn’t have a bunch of wiggle room when he’s getting his own shot. These are all reasons as to why you won’t find him high up on many boards.
I’m a buyer of his shot and continued improvement. I’m a buyer of the fact that NBA teams covet players that have what Mackenzie has. Last season, 13 players of Mgbako’s position were drafted in the first round—he will be a sought-after commodity for NBA teams when he declares for the draft, whenever that may be, and that’s nothing to be slept on.
Scouting Notes
Florida State’s Taylor Bol Bowen was a player that was not within the first 150 players that I scouted, but he has rapidly ascended up my board. Players as big as Bowen (listed at 6’10” and looks every bit of it) aren’t supposed to be as coordinated as he is. He blocks shots at a ridiculous clip, boasting a block percentage of 7.8 to this point that ties for 38th among all players with a minutes percentage of at least 50. Aside from being able to do an impressive Jonathan Isaac impression, Bowen is also shooting just under 37% from deep on a decent volume. Big wings/forwards that can put the ball on the deck, shoot, move, and play defense like him don’t come around all of the time, which is why he’s now in my Top 60 with no cap on him continuing to climb.
Berke Buyuktuncel has done a very good job playing a significant role for Nebraska. I was a big fan of Berke when he came over to play for UCLA, before he was relegated to a role all-too-familiar for most freshmen that play for Coach Cronin. The Huskers are a very fun watch, with Buyuktuncel playing a role that varies from energetic do-it-all forward to sweet-shooting stretch big. He competes like crazy on the glass and gives a great effort on defense. His shot doesn’t look bad at all, but he could stand to see it fall more consistently. If he can continue to produce in conference play, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Berke starts garnering real draft buzz.
Duke has a number of players on their team that could probably play a bigger role elsewhere, and Seth Trimble has shown a lot to be impressed with. He shot well on a very low volume last season, and he has continued to shoot well this year on twice as much volume. Trimble has been a nightmare for whoever has been unfortunate enough to be his assignment on defense. His steal rate is up to 2.9, and he has continued to be a good shot-blocker for his stature and position. He likely won’t be drafted (or declare in the first place) based purely on the temperature check on his name, but he’ll be someone to monitor throughout the year as a breakout for next season.
As I continue to generate my scouting profiles, I have found myself entering a range of prospects that I am referring to as the “Sicko Zone”. Here are some of the names I’ll be watching soon:
There will be more names I’ll be watching, and you’ll see them here and on social media!
Be sure to follow me on Twitter: StephenGHoops
Catch me on Bluesky: StephenGHoops
Catch the Draft Sickos show LIVE on the No Ceilings NBA channel: