Magic 8 Ballers: A Dose of the Vaaks Scene
Rowan Kent takes a deeper look into the surprising emergence of Providence's Stefan Vaaks and how he could be just what the doctor ordered in the 2026 NBA Draft Class!
In many ways, obsessing over the NBA draft is like obsessing over health. Consistent reps take the form of consistently watching game tape, while tracking advanced stats is not too different from monitoring the quantities of selected ingredients in one’s food. Now, you might argue that an obsession with scouting has the opposite effect on one’s health as a focus on physical fitness, but that’s only when I stay up past my bedtime to cram games into my day versus watching while I’m on the Stair Master.
Like literally anything, draft scouting is best done in moderation. It may be feasible for some, though not me, to spend an entire day watching game tape over and over, but that would be painful on the eyes and likely lead to diminishing returns on conclusions gleaned. The same can be said of crunching numbers to find a conclusion one wants, as it simply may be the case that no matter how one cooks the numbers, their desired conclusion will never manifest.
The idea of moderation also comes into play with different draft prospects and their on-court archetypes. While the best players can play massive swaths of game time due to their unique ability to impact winning, most other players only play in moderation. Thus, in their short time on the court, role players and even some starters must do their best to deliver the best possible dose of their skill set to help their team win.
Providence’s Stefan Vaaks is a player who, despite having played only a small sample of the team’s minutes so far, has emerged as a sleeper draft prospect not just for the future but for the 2026 NBA Draft class. This may sound like a stretch given Vaaks’s limited play time, but a peek into the Magic 8 Ball reveals a ton of untapped upside that Vaaks hasn’t extracted yet from his past overseas play.
In fact, a bigger dose of Vaaks’s play could be just what he needs to convince draftniks and front offices alike that a prescription pick up might just be what they need to take their roster to the top.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
While Stefan Vaaks may be new to the college basketball scene, having arrived this summer amid the deluge of international stars coming to the NCAA, he’s been a quiet fixture in international basketball for some time. Hailing from Tabasalu, Estonia, Vaaks has been playing professionally since he was an early teenager. Most of his youth playing experience was shaped at the CB Estudiantes academy in the Liga ACB before Vaaks returned to his home league, the Latvian-Estonian Basketball League, at just 18.
You’d be remiss to think he was an older player during his time there, as Vaaks was a surprising star for two teams in the league. For Viimsi, Vaaks ranked fourth in minutes per game as the team’s second-leading scorer and three-point sniper, although the team won only six games that season.
Vaaks switched teams to Kalev/Cramo the following year, once again playing a prominent guard role. His sequel season was better than his first, as he helped lead his team to win the Estonian Championship and Cup, all while capturing All-Star Five honors in his age nineteen season, which is nothing to sneeze at, to say the least.
Alongside his professional trysts in Estonia, Stefan Vaaks has also been establishing himself with his home country’s national team. After cutting his teeth at the FIBA U16 and U18 level, where he established his acumen with the ball in his hands, Vaaks recently made his debut with the senior national team, where he’ll likely be a fixture for the next decade.
As a guard, Stefan Vaaks has slowly built up his ball skills, shooting touch, and floor game, dose by dose. At a reported 6’6” and with a light frame, Vaaks is quick on his feet with or without the ball in his hands. He’s as lethal darting around screens for a long bomb as he is controlling the pace with the ball in his hands. The control and balance Vaaks plays with make him impossible to speed up or disrupt as he progresses through his reads.
Whether at the junior national level all the way up to the pros, Vaaks has had the ball in his hands, which makes his transition to Providence one of the more interesting of the offseason in the Big East. Vaaks only recently moved into the starting lineup for the Friars, and although he’s currently first on the team in minutes per game, he’s playing in a different role than he has in a while.
So, how has he done in a different dosage?
Occult Offense
If you’re keeping track at home, which I doubt you are, I seem to have a trend of choosing more offensively inclined players for the Magic 8 Ballers series. That’s neither a conscious choice nor a real issue, as putting the ball in the hoop is the most essential part of the game.
That trend continues with Stefan Vaaks, who has been a gifted offensive player throughout his career. It helps to be a guard with plus size and wingspan, but tools can only get you so far. Where Vaaks really wins is with his quick decision-making. Whether it’s a pass to a cutter, a quick shimmy move to get open, or a lightning-quick release with his jumper, Stefan Vaaks is one of the fastest processors of the game in this draft class.
I’ll start with the shooting for Stefan Vaaks, because it’s the most evident NBA skill that he has as a draft prospect. Vaaks’s jumper has been a tool that’s developed more recently, as he’s put up some great percentages for his past few teams. Last year at Kalev, Vaaks hit a cool 39.8% of his 103 three-pointers after hitting 42.9% of his 56 long bombs for Viimsi the year before. Now, for Providence, Vaaks is bringing his shooting prowess to the forefront, as he’s already taken 71 threes and nailed them at a smoking-hot 40.8% clip.
What makes Stefan Vaaks a good shooter? Well, it’s easier to try to find what doesn’t make him one, to be honest. Vaaks has the height to rise above other players and a high, quick release point on his jumper. That release, which happens in a flash, can happen from a no-dip release or in a breeze after a low catch.
Vaaks also shows great balance with his lower body as a shooter. He’s able to dart around screens, take side steps, and launch bombs with a hand in his face off the dribble and act like he’s alone in a gym with chairs. That type of focus and accuracy is what makes Vaaks both a danger to hit pull-up threes and catch-and-shoot bombs.
As a pull-up three-point shooter, Stefan Vaaks has hit 13-of-29, or 44.8%, of these types of shots this season. Whether that’s handling off a screening action, relocating with a steadying dribble off the catch, or using a stepback move on the break, it’s breathtaking how poised Vaaks is as a shooter with one of the more difficult types of shots for a player to take.
That same accuracy extends to his catch-and-shoot threes this season as well, as he’s hit 16-of-40, or 40.0%, of these looks. Being able to run the floor alongside Jason Edwards and Corey Floyd before hitting a long three-pointer has given Providence the type of offensive dimension that Kim English envisioned when building his offensively skewed roster.
Stefan Vaaks can not only hit shots in all different ways, but can also hit them in a hurry and a flurry. Recently, against Rhode Island, the Friars fell into an early 14-2 hole that could’ve further deflated their nonconference season. Instead, in a display of his overall shooting expertise, Stefan Vaaks went on a personal 12-0 run on four three-pointers that completely flipped the game.
It’s a microwave moment like this that makes Stefan Vaaks one of the more high-upside shooting prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft class. Not only does Vaaks have the volume to show he’s a proven deadeye from deep, but he also has the innate feel for the moment to ride the hot hand and take over games with his deep prowess.
It’s not all shooting for Vaaks, however, as his role playing with the ball in his hands has given him an excellent command of the offense as well. Whether it’s been for the Estonian National Team, Viimsi, Kalev, or Providence, Vaaks has had the ball in his hands and has been tasked with making plays not only himself, but for his entire team.
As a point guard, it helps that Vaaks can see over most of the defense when he’s setting up his sets, but you can’t touch the timing and feel that he has with the ball in his hands. Although he does his spot-up shots well, Vaaks is best as an on-ball offense player. At Kalev last season, Vaaks had a 1.74 assist-to-turnover ratio, which was a massive improvement over his small sample-sized Viimsi mark of 0.78.
At Providence, Vaaks has a 1.59 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is a healthy number for someone who handles the ball as much as he does. He leads Providence in assists per game, too, highlighting the importance of Vaaks to the high-powered offense of the Friars, which ranks 18th in the nation in scoring.
While some point guards are a bit locked into the types of assists that they can deliver consistently, Stefan Vaaks has a robust arsenal of different passes he can throw. He’s great at spotting players streaking ahead and hitting them in the hands on cuts or for dissecting a static defense, with his length and speed that he puts on the ball, not even outstretched arms are enough to stop his passes from getting through.
Out of the pick-and-roll, which is a staple of Kim English’s offense, Vaaks is a methodical reader of the floor. He has a solid, though not great, first step that helps him to get just enough space to draw defenders toward him. From there, it’s a scenario where Vaaks can pick his poison for the defense, as he tosses one-handed skip passes, kick-outs to waiting shooters, or hits his roll man for an easy finish inside.
The biggest issue with Vaaks’s passing is that he sometimes tries to make the hero pass when a simple sidekick feed will do. These errors range from bullets through a closed window to weakly lofted one-handed lobs. Still, more often than these are the simply marvelous dimes that make you blink a few times and rewind your tape to make sure you actually just saw what you saw.
While he’s run the position for years at all levels, there are a few aspects of Stefan Vaaks’s game that keep me from projecting him as a point guard at the next level. Despite his shooting and passing skills, Vaaks is missing a key ingredient: the ability to be a threatening rim scorer. That element, although not essential for his potential path to the NBA, does limit his role once he gets there.
There are several issues that Vaaks has as a rim threat right now. First, he doesn’t get to the basket enough. This season, Vaaks has taken a measly 16 shots at the rim for Providence. That’s not only a paltry number, but also an endemic problem to Vaaks’s scoring portfolio overall.
Per Synergy, Vaaks is just 7-of-14 on lay-ups this season, which means he’s not even doing a great job of finishing once he gets there. His misses are a combination of middling body control, a thin frame that can’t finish as easily through contact, and a few unlucky misses at the basket. It’s hard to parse through the difference between his makes and misses at the college level, as he doesn’t have enough tape right now.
Back at Kalev, there were more promising signs, but those may come with caveats. Per Synergy, Vaaks averaged only 22 rim shots last season and just seven the season before. No matter how you shake the percentages, which weren’t much better than they are now, Stefan Vaaks seems to have an allergy to getting downhill and finishing once there. His European tape from Kalev does look better aesthetically, but putback lay-ups buoyed some of his numbers.
It doesn’t help Vaaks that his handle is still developing. While he has the requisite moves to get around screens and create some separation, his height does leave his dribble a bit too high. This has led to a weaker handle with pressure, which is the primary source of Stefan Vaaks’s turnovers at the college level.
As an offensive player, Stefan Vaaks has some clear positives and negatives in his game. While he is a certified sniper from deep, he also has a real issue getting downhill due to his handle. Despite him being a plus passer, Vaaks doesn’t have the touch at the rim to finish on the rare chance that he gets there.
That leaves Vaaks as a talented, incomplete offensive player who still has a role in the NBA. Although he can’t handle NBA minutes as a point guard right now, there’s a clear opening for him to be a spark plug offensive player off the bench. Vaaks’s shooting and passing are too tantalizing for the NBA not to at least consider whether he can elevate his weaker offensive areas to meet the dizzying highs of the others.
Inside Scoring Package: Don’t Count on It
Outside Scoring Package: Without a Doubt
Passing Package: You May Rely on It
Ball-Handling Package: Concentrate and Ask Again
Defensive Divination
As I mentioned before, the main appeal of Stefan Vaaks is that he’s a young prospect with boatloads of offensive talent and upside. That isn’t to say that Vaaks is a terrible defender nor a lost cause on that end of the floor. Instead, it’s more of an indictment of the limitations in role and frame that he will face once he takes another step up in competition at the NBA level.
Like many on-ball players who carry a heavy offensive load, defense has not been at the forefront of what Vaaks is expected to do for his teams. On the surface, that shouldn’t matter too much, as a 6’6” guard with positive length should, as a baseline, be able to make some positive defensive plays.
That’s true for Stefan Vaaks, who is an inconsistent cover with areas of growth and some bright spots. The brightest spot would be how Vaaks plays the passing lanes, using the same length that makes him a good passer to pick off passes from others. Vaaks has a 2.5% steal percentage, which is solid and could speak to his swiping at the next level.
Vaaks’s steals come from a variety of places, as he gets his hand on drives. He also does a solid job of using his lighter frame to his advantage to bait some jumbled drives from opponents, although it would still serve him better to build his muscle up to the point that he can knock players off of him on both ends.
As an on-ball defender, Vaaks leaves a little bit to be desired. He is light on his feet, but doesn’t always stay in front of his man. Part of that is due to age and the need to drill down on fundamentals, but the other part is an over-reliance on being able to get back into the play. That can happen at the college level, but if Vaaks tries that in the NBA, he’ll be blown by with abandon.
The off-ball tape is a similar mixture of good and bad, as Vaaks doesn’t consistently stick to his man when off the ball. There are good closeouts mixed in with solid switches, but those plays don’t make up for the times that Vaaks is caught ball-watching or lunging at a challenge that he has no business trying to make.
While it’s not a focus of his role for Kim English, as it seems it isn’t for anyone on that Providence roster, there will come a time, sooner rather than later, when Stefan Vaaks will be expected to put forth more effort and results as a defender. If that doesn’t happen, it wouldn’t be shocking to see that as the one reason that evaluators can point to for him not making a bigger imprint at the NBA level.
Perimeter Defense: Reply Hazy, Try Again
Interior Defense: Outlook Not So Good
Team Tasseography
It was a later surprise that Stefan Vaaks was coming over to the college ranks this season compared to some of the bigger names like Hannes Steinbach, but he clearly followed the wave of success that came before him. When you evaluate the type of roster he joined at Providence, it’s clear that Vaaks has both the runway to shine there that he may not have in other places and an environment that may not help him expand his game enough to be an NBA draft prospect.
Kim English has been at the helm of his alma mater for three years, each of which was a different story. In his first year, English benefited from a lottery pick in Devin Carter, who was a recruit from Ed Cooley’s past at the school. Alongside Carter, the Friars were a stingy defensive team that dragged teams down to their level with bludgeoning force.
Last year’s team, missing a clear NBA talent, sputtered to a 12-20 record. It didn’t help that Bryce Hopkins’s ACL loomed over the whole season, but the lack of positive contributions that English got out of his roster does raise a few questions. Wesley Cardet Jr. was a dynamic wing at Chicago State who couldn’t scale up his game, which put too much stress on Benley Joseph to be a focal point. Jayden Pierre had the same issues, while neither Oswin Erhunmwunse nor Christ Essandoko hit their ceilings as bigs in a guard-dominated offense.
This year’s team isn’t constructed too differently, as they took a smattering of transfer odds and ends in the portal. Jason Edwards has shown a penchant for scoring well at the college level, but he isn’t a full point guard. Jaylin Sellers also loves to take a ton of shots, while Duncan Powell has shown enough to need some touches in the frontcourt to be effective. That isn’t even mentioning freshman Jamier Jones, who has shown the types of flashes he won’t get to capitalize on due to his place in the pecking order.
In a lot of ways, Vaaks’s emergence has been a surprise element of Providence’s season. While Kim English would not have recruited him if he didn’t think he could help with winning, it’s hard to believe that anyone quite saw his emergence coming this season. Sure, with his European tape readily available, the signs were always there, but Vaaks has hit the ground running faster than many, including me, anticipated.
That’s given Providence a good problem to have in their backcourt. They’ve further sharpened their advantages on their team to put dribble pressure on defenses for the full forty minutes of game time. With Vaaks’s floor spacing, too, the Friars are much more of a threat than they may have been without him.
On the other hand, the habits and attitudes that the team has towards defense are probably the last thing that Stefan Vaaks needs to develop into an NBA player. There are some solid individual defenders on this Providence team, with Oswin Erhunmwunse mostly in mind as their pivot inside. Still, the overall defensive product has been lackluster, to say the least.
The team is giving up 82.4 points per game, which is 336th in the entire country. That’s a putrid number that is probably artificially inflating their gaudy scoring, as they have to run-and-gun just to keep up with the other teams they play. It also doesn’t help Stefan Vaaks at all as a defender to be in this sort of scheme that is only breeding bad habits and disappointment.
Thus, while it was a net positive for Vaaks to come over to the States and play a key offensive role for a college team in the short term, I’m a bit more worried about his long-term development. If he can’t start to establish a better defensive identity that bucks the trend of where his team is going, he could miss out on his potential to reach the next level.
The Final Shake
For many players, just a dose of their play is enough for their team. For Stefan Vaaks and Providence, a bigger dose of his dynamic offense has been just what they need to net a few early wins. His deep shooting skills and passing pizazz have helped the team to a sterling offensive height, even if he hasn’t helped as much with their defensive deficiencies.
That leaves him on shakier ground as a prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft class. On one hand, outside of the top tier of players, there’s little that’s been decided about the class. Some other freshmen have been impressive, but various youngsters and veteran college players alike have not panned out as expected. That leaves an opening for a player like Vaaks to be just what the doctor ordered.
For Vaaks to be that player would be to bet on his upside. Right now, Vaaks is a plus shooter and passer, but a minus as a finisher, driver, and defender. It would be surprising to see him given the leash to fully accentuate his positives without his negatives creeping up to keep him from heavy minutes early.
Thus, for a team to fully buy into the Vaaks scene, they need to believe that he can raise his game to demand a more robust dose as the years go on. It’s become less en vogue for NBA teams to pick project players. Still, with the past track record of success and the exhilarating blend of offense that he brings, it may just be worth choosing Stefan Vaaks in the second round, if he hasn’t worked his way into late first-round contention by the end of his breakout year.
I don't see Vaaks declaring for the draft this year
His athleticism isn't great, defense is questionable, and shot runs too inconsistent right now
Also agree on how this can be tiring at times lmao