Magic 8 Ballers: Eat, Trey, Love
Magic 8 Ballers: Eat, Trey, Love
Trey Alexander's three seasons at Creighton have been a wonderful journey in finding himself on the basketball court. But who exactly is he and what can he do at the NBA level?
“If you clear out all of that space in your mind, you would have a doorway.”
- Elizabeth Gilbert, Eat, Pray, Love
As the 2024 NBA Draft draws near, keeping things in perspective is essential. Only a few prospects are still playing meaningful basketball, so the case for many prospects is already close to completion. Sure, there’s the combine and interviews, both essential parts of the job interview process for teams, but the brunt of the basketball evaluation, if not all, has already been done.
Every year, despite this feeling like a foregone conclusion, some players rise during the pre-draft process. Some do so from the strength of their athletically marvelous measurements, while others show out with the ball in their hands against folding chairs behind closed doors. If I sound facetious, I am—only because in this day and age, it’s hard to sneak up on the whole sector of the NBA Draft and surprise the masses.
However, this can happen and should matter when a player answers questions that were always on film. Situations and contexts are crucial in assessing prospects, so much so that a player's obscurity can mask whether they deserve to be drafted. In the end, talent often wins out, but the pre-draft process is when players who were previously searching to find themselves can do so at the best possible time.
For all of the hand-wringing and prognosticating, so much more still needs to happen between now and draft night. For players who started their season hot but then cooled, they need to prove that the strong start was not a mirage. The chance to show teams why their season was a tale of two halves could be the difference between a guaranteed deal and scrapping for minutes as a second-rounder.
Although many players this year have had a tumultuous season, few have had as many twists and turns as Trey Alexander. He’s seen his stock skyrocket and plummet as his play is an unreliable bellwether, but Alexander has continued to push through it all. By taking a more comprehensive lens onto his season with a shake of the Magic 8 Ball, I seek to clear up the space around Alexander and hone in on who he is as a prospect.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
Trey Alexander’s ascent into NBA Draft conversations has been built brick by brick over his time as a Bluejay and beyond. He came to Creighton as Oklahoma’s Gatorade Player of the Year, serving as part of a fearsome foursome of recruits in 2021 alongside Arthur Kaluma, Ryan Nembhard, and Mason Miller.
Alexander has worked his way up in his three years at Creighton to serve as one of the main ball-handlers in the team’s high-octane offense. Per recent NBA Combine measurements, Alexander is almost 6’6” in shoes and has a 6’10.5” wingspan. His height, length, and quickness have helped him make up for a lack of vertical pop while providing him the runway to be a premium piece for the Bluejays.
He’s a threat to score at the cup, midrange, or behind the arc with the ball in his hands, making him a tough isolation cover. Add in the fact that Alexander is a skilled ball-handler with a deep bag while also being a heady and willing passer, and you’ve got yourself a pretty darn good guard prospect, minus his aforementioned issues with his leaping.
In his freshman season, Alexander served as the sixth man for the Bluejays, averaging 7.4 points per game with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. In his second year at Creighton, Alexander scored 13.6 points per game while ranking as the second-leading scorer in an egalitarian offense. With that sort of jump, it was a mild surprise for Alexander to return to the Bluejays, but it sent the hype train chugging out of the station before his junior year.
So, what did he do as a junior? A lot more of everything. Alexander’s usage jumped from 21.3% as a sophomore to 26.6% as a junior. He had the ball in his hands more, taking almost five more shots per game, and improved his scoring to 17.6 points. He formed a lethal Cerberus offense with Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman to help Creighton be, per BartTorvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rankings, the eighth-best offense in the nation.
Despite these improvements as a scorer, there were some exciting wrinkles to Alexander’s season. His added responsibilities increased his assists and turnovers, while he took way more twos than his prior years. Alexander did average a career-high 50.4% from two-point range but watched his three-point shooting fall off from 41.0% on 4.4 attempts as a sophomore to 33.9% on 5.2 attempts as a junior.
Alexander’s season was hard to parse out as well. He had an up-and-down non-conference slate before waxing and waning early in Big East Conference play. Eventually, Alexander’s offense started to even out, which was a mix of good and bad, as he only shot 45.3% from the field but hit 42.9% of his threes.
It’s less of a case of one Trey Alexander versus another as it is a case of multiple different peaks and valleys in one season. Which improvements are real? Which ones are mere statistical noise? Do the numbers back up what’s on tape? In watching Alexander’s season, while there are some clear issues he has to work through, the outlines of an NBA-caliber guard have become easier to visualize.
Occult Offense
Evaluating Trey Alexander’s offensive game starts and ends with the ball in his hands. As a stocky, lanky guard with a good handle, Alexander was primarily an on-ball creator for this Creighton team. While Steven Ashworth and Baylor Scheierman also got their share of possessions, Alexander’s best and most telling moments came when he operated as the offensive creator for the Bluejays.
Where Alexander excelled most was in the pick-and-roll. Per Synergy, as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, he had a “Very Good” rating on his 221 possessions. These equated to 33.4% of all his possessions on offense, as the Bluejays saw that they had a good thing going when Alexander could attack off of a screen with the ball in his hands and run with it.
A big part of Alexander's lethality from a screen is his mix of individual shot creation and creative passing. Alexander is a pull-up demon in the mid-range, shooting an eye-popping 49.2% on 162 mid-range jumpers this year. His high efficiency comes from a high release point alongside a bunch of the little things: he gets defenders on his hip, can fire at absurd angles, doesn’t get rattled by a hand in his face, and uses deceleration at a moment’s notice to create separation.
Given his 6’10” wingspan, Alexander will always have his reliable pull-up in his back pocket. While it may not be the preferred shot diet on the modern NBA menu, having a calling card that he can lean on for trusted scoring is a bankable skill. It’s even more important if Alexander ever does get extended on-ball reps as a bench player, as that type of shot creation is at a premium in the non-star minutes.
Alexander’s archetype would be more of a shot-chucker if he only had his pull-up as a threat. Instead, he has two signature passes in his arsenal, making him a difficult cover for opposing defenses. As a pick-and-roll ball-handler, Alexander has mastered key pass types that create high-efficiency looks: the lob and the kick out.
It undoubtedly helped Alexander to have a colossus to toss lobs to in Ryan Kalkbrenner, but the placement, pace, and timing on Alexander’s lobs were exquisite. Alexander showed the rare ability to create his window for his alley-oops, as there was a moment too early or late in the possession to toss a spot-on dish right to Kalkbrenner’s hands seamlessly.
When he wasn’t picking apart the defense vertically, Alexander’s passes punctured holes horizontally. He was just as confident darting into the paint or drawing defensive attention before flinging a pass right into the shooting pocket of his waiting teammates.
These passes are exactly what NBA teams need from a creator of any kind. As generators of easy offense for a team, it immediately gives Alexander tools to dismantle NBA defenses. Combine that with his penchant for pull-ups, and Alexander has clear potential as a ball-handler at the next level.
However, some elements of Alexander’s game could dampen his effectiveness in the NBA. The most important one is his finishing at the rim, which has left something to be desired for his career. Per Synergy, Alexander only shot 53.2% on 293 rim attempts across his three years at Creighton, with slight improvement from his freshman to junior season.
There’s no sugarcoating it: that won’t stick in the NBA. A low number raises obvious questions about why Alexander struggles so much, but there aren’t easy answers. He faces an inversely related mix of length and versatility, as he has a massive wingspan but is a fairly ground-bound athlete. He’s quick enough to create separation and occasionally shows some ridiculous touch on lay-ups and scoops, yet that doesn’t consistently translate.
Besides the lack of vertical pop, which is a legitimate concern for Alexander, his lack of strength when absorbing contact is his biggest boogeyman in finishing. There were too many times that Alexander got to the rim and either took on a beefy shot blocker or attempted to finish over multiple defenders. Neither was a productive scenario for him and with just a 20.8% free throw rate, there isn’t a positive outlook for Alexander’s rim finishing.
It’s not a death sentence for Trey Alexander’s future to be a middling finisher at the rim, but it makes every other margin in his game thinner. He has the wingspan and ingenuity to be a better finisher at the basket but needs to work on absorbing contact. Until he can put pressure on defenses with his attempts at the cup, there will be a counter to Alexander’s other effective attributes.
That isn’t helped as much by his on-and-off handles. Sometimes, Alexander looks totally in control of his dribble and gets exactly where he wants. Those times are often when he’s going in a straight line and being decisive with his attacks. However, when he waffles or faces a handsy and sturdy perimeter defender, evidence of a weaker handle away from his body starts to mount.
There’s enough on tape showing Alexander’s handle that I’m not too worried, but it’s the more pressing source of turnovers than his passing. It compounds his issues with rim finishing, as teams will start to be more physical with Alexander everywhere on the floor if they know that they can knock him out of rhythm with a well-timed bump.
Equally important to Alexander’s inside woes is his inconsistency from the outside. Charting Trey Alexander’s shooting from deep is like shaking a Magic 8 Ball: the answer is often murky and can change each time you look at it. Without as much clarity as I’d like, however, I would consider this a plus feature of his game and a part of his bag that he can rely on in the future.
Alexander was a capable volume and percentage shooter from three for his Creighton career. Alexander shot 35.8% on 408 total attempts and 3.8 attempts per game, which is solid if not unspectacular. To fully grasp how good of a shooter Alexander is, it’s worth focusing on his sophomore and junior years, as he improved upon only taking 64 threes as a freshman and clanking in 28.1% of them.
Despite his experience as a creator, Alexander must be a good spot-up shooter at the next level. Unless he becomes a dynamite finisher, Alexander likely won’t have the same usage and will need to maximize every attempt he gets. Luckily, spot-up shooting is where Alexander’s length and balance shine. Alexander canned 42.1% of his catch-and-shoot threes as a sophomore before hitting 36.6% as a junior.
The dip in three-point percentage is slightly concerning, but there are a few factors to explain the dip. As an offensive player in his junior campaign, Alexander faced more attention, which tightened the windows. Per Synergy, Alexander took 58 “guarded” threes in his sophomore year compared to 75 “unguarded” attempts. As a junior, that number flipped from 78 “guarded” to 67 “unguarded” due to the increased defensive focus on him.
At a standstill, Alexander looks like a skilled shooter who can draw defensive attention. What would make him truly a dangerous deep shooter would be his movement shooting, but neither his pull-up game from deep nor his shots off of screening actions inspire much confidence in those as a strength.
Across his two high-volume seasons, Alexander shot just 19/70, or 27.1%, on pull-up threes while shooting a paltry 12/44, or 27.2%, on his threes off screens. These numbers are puzzling, as Alexander is such a talented mid-range shooter, but he doesn’t always show the same consistency or balance with his feet or arms from a distance that he does on his mid-range jumpers.
Given his success finding balance in off-balance situations for his mid-range shots, I want to be more bullish on Alexander as a completely versatile movement three-point shooter. However, until he starts shooting it with any consistency and efficiency and is not just firing from a standstill, I won’t go that far in projecting his future shooting capabilities.
Without movement shooting from deep, the ability to finish at the rim, or to draw enough free throws, it’s hard to see Trey Alexander becoming a true starting weapon in the NBA. With his pull-up shooting, prolific passing, pick-and-roll prowess, and stationary sniping, however, there are enough pieces to either see extended bench minutes for a team that needs a spark or to eventually shore up one of his weaknesses and beget the opportunity to be a spot starter for a good team.
Inside Scoring Package: Don’t Count on It
Outside Scoring Package: Concentrate and Ask Again
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: Signs Point to Yes
Defensive Divination
For such a potent defensive team like Creighton, I expected to see a mix of lowlights and highlights for Alexander on film. On the one hand, it’s hard to be a true weak link on a team with a good defense, especially with the mix of good height and great length. On the other hand, Alexander carried a heavy load on offense, which usually led to a pulling back on defensive effort and efficiency.
Dissecting Trey Alexander’s defense is the definition of a mixed bag. For every positive play he made with his length, he made a poor one due to his feet. Alexander’s pterodactyl wingspan helped him to cover some of his mistakes, but his lack of fundamentals laterally condemned him and Creighton to some easier looks than expected on many possessions.
I wouldn’t call him food, but Alexander did struggle a bit as an on-ball defender. Alexander isn’t a stick in the mud, but he doesn’t take the best angles with his feet to force his opponent where he wants them to go. Instead, most players who drove at Alexander dictated the encounter and got whatever they wanted, whether a rim attempt or a pull-up.
It wasn’t all bad, however. Even when beaten, Alexander could use his lanky reach to effect plays. He showed a solid motor on defense, as he rarely gave up on plays when beat. Given the misses from solid guards who attacked him but were met with his towering hands, there is something there to work with for Alexander, granted he can stay in front of his man more and properly use his length.
Another area where Alexander shines is jarring possessions loose. He never topped a 2.0% steal percentage in any of his three seasons, which casts doubt on his abilities to generate consistent turnovers, but don’t tell that to the foolish ball-handlers who dribbled around Alexander. He used his long reach to poke balls free, intercept errant passes, and muck up plays on multiple occasions for Creighton.
When on the ball as a defender, there is enough there that Alexander doesn’t create a pressure point to exploit for opposing teams. He’ll need to not get beat as often to the basket, but as long as his arms don’t shrink, Alexander will have some of the best insurance contesting shots for guards in this draft class.
Sadly, the same can’t be said about his off-ball defense. It wasn’t every possession where he got beat there, but it happened enough on a few important types of plays that it is necessary to mention. For a player with such a long reach, I didn’t expect to see as many blown plays that could be changed with a more fundamentally sound approach.
The first area of concern for Trey Alexander is defending screens. It’s a consistent problem for Alexander, as he was completely creamed on a pick, ending up a few feet behind his mark. That’s the kind of play that kills a defense and bends them to the will of the opposing offense. Part of it may have fallen on not hearing the screen called out, but you must have some pride in plays like these at some point.
Alexander is similarly concerned when closing out on opposing shooters. His long reach allows him to contest shots carefully, but he rarely had the chance due to reckless closeouts. The way that Alexander leaped around shooters and left himself and his defense in a compromising position is the type of tape that will lead to early benchings in his NBA career.
Just like for his on-ball defense, all is not lost for Alexander. If he can stay disciplined and attached to off-ball opponents, he can impose his will with his long reach. Until he goes from actually meh to theoretically good, Alexander will have to fight an uphill battle to prove to his future coach that he contributed to a good team defense, not its weakness.
Perimeter Defense Package: Outlook Not So Good
Interior Defense Package: Don’t Count on It
Team Tasseography
When taking a bird’s eye view of Creighton’s season, much has led to Trey Alexander’s improved junior season. Sure, most of his improvement came from increased volume and better passing numbers, but context is key—just like with every player. Without the circumstances around him, Alexander likely wouldn’t have had the same type of season that he did.
After fourteen seasons at the helm for Creighton, Greg McDermott has run the gamut with the types of teams he’s constructed. In the past four seasons, however, McDermott has seen the most success with his teams come March. The Bluejays have thrice reached the Sweet Sixteen in that period while also making it to the Elite Eight two years ago.
What’s powered Creighton to new heights has been a stingier defense than a prolific offense. Over the past four seasons, per BartTorvik, the Bluejays have ranked 26th, 123rd, 21st, and eighth in adjusted offensive rating. Conversely, the team has ranked 32nd, 19th, 15th, and 32nd in adjusted defensive rating in the last four years.
Such a focus on defense has come from the sterling starting fives for Creighton. In the past four seasons, freshman Trey Alexander and fifth-year senior Francisco Farabello are the only players to play more than twenty minutes per game off the bench for Creighton. That leaves the brunt of the defense, but more importantly, the offense, on the shoulders of the starting five for the team.
All of this is to say that Trey Alexander has been put in a favorable position over his three seasons with the Bluejays. Unlike other draft prospects who have to languish without on-ball reps, Alexander led Creighton in usage percentage this year and was second last year. He’s had the lion’s share of possessions since he came to Creighton to develop into the ball-handling weapon he is today.
Trey Alexander has not only benefited from having the ball in his hands but has also enjoyed a sublimely constructed roster to maximize his talents. Sure, that may seem simple and reductive, but there are just as many prospects who flounder in ideal situations as those who flourish in sub-optimal scenarios. Alexander falls more into the Goldilocks zone of having the exact type of team constructed around him to accentuate his strengths and mask some of his flaws.
This year’s Creighton squad consisted of three main ball-handlers, a massive pivot, and a certified sniper. All three of Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Steven Ashworth could play off each other due to their combined abilities to create for themselves, create for others, and draw in a defense. Having Ryan Kalkbrenner on the interior was a major boon for the team as well, as he could serve as a defensive anchor on his while also, per Synergy, scoring at the rim at a scalding 74.8% clip.
Add in Mason Miller’s 45.4% on three-pointers on 3.3 attempts per game, and you have about as ideal of a scenario for Trey Alexander to exist. It didn’t matter that his three-point percentage tanked a bit this season; all of Ashworth, Miller, and Scheierman were good enough to keep up the spacing necessary for Alexander to attack the cup. While he did have some finishing concerns once there, the added spacing around him opened up the pick-and-roll for Alexander to dish around and destroy the defense.
It likely won’t be this nice for Alexander at the NBA level. While, on average, the spacing is better, every window in the NBA is that much tighter. Athletes are better, closeouts come faster, and the bumps taken are just a bit more bruising. That’s not to say that Alexander won’t succeed when he’s in the NBA; far from it. Instead, it’s important to note that we’re about to see how scalable Trey Alexander’s game is to the next level.
How many minutes can a below-the-rim finisher who isn’t an elite shooter or passer beget from an NBA team? What about one with the defensive measurables to make an impact but doesn’t fully back it up on film? Add in the fact that Alexander does most of his damage on the ball, something he likely won’t have as much space to do, and you’re left with a conundrum when imagining the NBA fit for him.
Given his stellar shot creation and proclivity for leading a good offense with the ball in his hands, Alexander's best path for early and sustained success would be as a sixth man for an NBA squad. He’d have the space to create for himself and others without being pigeonholed into a less potent role. If the right team hands Alexander the keys to their bench offense, they could reap the long and short-term rewards from his offensive skill set.
The Final Shake
After a few seasons in Omaha, Trey Alexander has put together a compelling case to be drafted in 2024. He is a skilled on-ball creator, can do so for himself and others, and has one of the better height-wingspan ratios for guards in this draft. In the right situation, Alexander could lean on his strengths and have his weaknesses masked until he improves upon them.
But what would that situation be? A bench creation role could give Alexander and his future NBA home the perfect marriage of what both need. By playing off the bench, Alexander will use his shot-creation skills without taking touches away from better on-ball weapons. He also will get to toy with inferior players early in his career.
Similarly, on defense, Alexander won’t be picked on by opposing offenses like he would as a starter. Due to his defense, it’ll probably be a few years or an intense developmental jump before Alexander can play sustained playoff minutes. Still, a patient approach could unlock his latent defensive potential.
Teams like the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, and New Orleans Pelicans, to name a few, all struggled with shot creation with their bench units. Alexander could step in to play on-ball minutes for teams like these while giving them an upside play if he can ever play a more controlled brand of defense.
Even if he doesn’t, there’s a clear enough doorway for Alexander to play a role in the NBA. There’s always money to be made with a money pull-up jumper, which Alexander has, alongside his great spot-up shooting. His ceiling might seem hard to reach, but given his wingspan, there are worlds where Trey Alexander reaches that lofty height and pays massive dividends for a faithful franchise.