Magic 8 Ballers: Lessons at Kon's Academy
Pardon the pun, but there's a lot to learn about Duke's Kon Knueppel and what Rowan Kent sees that makes him one of the most assured wing player bets in the 2025 NBA Draft Class!
Life is all about learning lessons. Most people start as students, spending their youth in classrooms and camps to learn how to read, write, or shoot a basketball. For many people, learning continues even after school, as there’s always something new on the horizon that requires a reconfiguring of the mind or a venture into an intellectual unknown.
For scouting basketball prospects, the learning never stops. Just a few decades ago, the idea of a center shooting threes would’ve been ridiculous and grounds for cratering draft stock. Now, it’s a coveted skillset. Similarly, player archetypes like a pure point guard or hard-nosed rebounding forward used to have more traction, but scouts like myself have had to relearn what types of guards and forwards can succeed in the NBA.
There’s also the learning that has to go on from making mistakes. Getting something wrong and improving after is a key facet of learning anything, which explains its relevance to the scouting community. The lessons I’ve learned from prospects I’ve been wrong on, from Andrew Wiggins to TyTy Washington Jr., to name a few, have influenced how I watch the game of basketball and how I scan statistics and data.
Thus, I’ve worked to become more open to learning on the fly and from my mistakes. In past years, I would’ve likely stuck with some personal biases and dropped Kon Knueppel down on my board lower than he belongs. After taking a long look into the Magic 8 Ball, I feel more comfortable with the Duke star’s game, enough for me to still consider him a potential lottery-level player even after an up-and-down season.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
When it comes to Knueppel’s background, all signs of a dominant basketball player and scorer are there. His father, also named Kon, was a 2,000-point scorer in college basketball, while his mother, Chari, was the all-time leading scorer at UW-Green Bay. Like his parents before him, Knueppel is best known for scoring, which he does gracefully and forcefully from any spot on the floor.
The main appeal for Knueppel, who measures around 6’7” and 215 pounds, is his versatile wing offense. He’s a knockdown shooter who can do it from a standstill or in motion. He has a high release point and a quick release and rarely gets off balance, even when off-center. Add that to some bursty driving, solid finishing, and burgeoning passing, and it’s no wonder that Knueppel has left his mark on countless leaderboards and win columns.
As a high school player, Knueppel’s accomplishments were numerous and well-earned. He helped lead his high school, Wisconsin Lutheran, to a perfect record and a state title. This led to him earning the 2023-2024 Gatorade Wisconsin Player of the Year and Wisconsin Mr. Basketball Award, alongside any other piece of shiny hardware from the Badger State.
However, Wisconsin wasn’t the only place where Knueppel blazed a path of scoring destruction. In his last year of EYBL basketball, with a less-heralded Phenom University squad, Knueppel led the entire Nike EYBL in scoring with 22.5 points a game. He also did so on sterling shooting percentages, even though he was the clear top option on scouting reports for every other team.
Given his dominance at all lower levels, it's no surprise that Knueppel earned a five-star rating as a recruit. The only surprise, then, was his choice to go to faraway Duke over closer schools like Wisconsin, Marquette, Illinois, or Michigan State. Knueppel was part of a stratospheric ensemble recruiting class for the Blue Devils alongside Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, Isaiah Evans, Patrick Ngongba, and Darren Harris.
With so much competition around him, there was no guarantee that Knueppel could flex his scoring chops immediately at Duke. He put those doubts to bed quickly, beating out fellow freshmen Harris and Evans to earn a spot in the starting lineup that he hasn’t relinquished in the team’s 27 games this season.
Not only has Knueppel been one of Duke’s best players this year, but he’s expanded his game to do so. By going from a clearcut number one option to a highly effective complementary role player, Knueppel has shown that he can accentuate more talented players around him and still be lethal at what he does in the flow of an offense. That impact moves the needle for me and should do so for other evaluators at the NBA level.
Occult Offense
The main appeal of Kon Knueppel as a prospect is his offense, so I’m going to spend the majority of our time together on this end of the floor. That’s not to say that his defense isn’t something that he’ll be judged on by scouts, but what will get Knueppel drafted is his offensive arsenal. And luckily, there’s a score of positives for him on offense.
I’ll start with the biggest skill for Knueppel, given it’s what will make him his money at the NBA level: his shooting. Knueppel is a true wing-sized player at 6’7” with a solid wingspan. He bolsters his height with a quick release, clean mechanics, and good footwork. Almost all of Knueppel’s jumpers are the same, with smooth, continuous motion in his jump shots no matter the angle or situation.
That’s a strong base to build from, and even though there are some areas where Knueppel hasn’t shot the cover off the ball this year, it doesn’t dissuade me from seeing him as an elite shooter. As a catch-and-shoot spacer this season, he’s shooting in that capacity as, per Synergy, Knueppel has canned 44.8% of his spot-up 67 threes.
Not all of Knueppel’s catch-and-shoots are coming in the same way. On some, he’s the set target of an action, leaving him with space and time to load up. Other times, Knueppel is the release valve for a driver on Duke, giving him but a second to load up and fire. There are even more times that a defender will make a good closeout toward Knueppel, and it just won’t matter because he’s such a deadeye sniper.
Inside his spot-up attempts, I noticed a vital wrinkle in Knueppel’s shooting profile. He’s adept at the art of the relocation three, where he moves without the ball in lockstep with the driver to find a pocket of space in the defense. It isn’t classified as its play on Synergy, but it is a separate skill that impressed me with Knueppel as a shooter. The NBA game necessitates smart fades and sags into open spaces for shooters, and Knueppel can already do that at a high level.
There’s much more to being a good shooter at the NBA level than just hitting catch-and-shoot looks, but it’s the base players must start. That’s why, even though Knueppel has some spottier percentages from other types of threes, I’m willing to give him a pass based on prior evidence of his marksmanship.
The first place where Knueppel is (relatively) struggling is in off-screen three-pointers. These plays require quickness and poise at a breakneck speed, separating solid shooters from true shooting specialists. Knueppel has only shot 9/30, or 30.0%, on these threes this year, but in his last season for Phenom University, albeit on a smaller sample size, he hit 5/12.
When watching Knueppel’s attempts, I’m more willing to attribute his slightly subpar percentage to a loud, small sample than a deficiency in his skillset. All of his attempts look good and repeatable, which makes me bullish that it's a matter of time before he starts draining them consistently.
Where I’m more in a debate is how Knueppel will end up as an off-the-dribble shooter. It’s not a major issue, as not every role he’ll have at the next level will ask him to shoot these shots frequently, but it is a potential cap to Knueppel’s ceiling. There’s nothing wrong with being a catch-and-shooter, but for Knueppel to be anything more than that in the NBA, he’ll need to be a threat off the dribble.
So far, he’s not quite that. Across his last season with Phenom University and his current season with Duke, Knueppel is a combined 36/85 on dribble jumpers of any variety. That’s both a lower percentage and a smaller sample size than I feel comfortable declaring he’s a good or bad shooter off the dribble. For Phenom, Knueppel shot 12/30 on pull-up threes; this year for Duke, he’s at just 2/11 on those same shots.
When watching him take pull-ups, there’s enough there that I’m not going to write him off as one day being able to do so consistently. Instead, it’s the next area for Knueppel to work at to improve his scoring arsenal. He won’t get the chance to take many of these shots at Duke, but NBA teams will likely put him into situations to test out his pull-up in summer league and in spurts off the bench next year.
To transition (haha) from strictly shooting, Knueppel’s feel for the game stands out on fast breaks. It’s a prerequisite for NBA players to take full advantage of opportunities on the break, which aligns with Knueppel as a player. Per Synergy, he has a “Very Good” rating in transition, carried by his 68.8% on two-pointers and 44.0% on threes. He’s a crafty space finder and knows when to probe versus when to fade for an open bomb.
That brings us fully to Knueppel’s driving abilities. While he has a solid first step and manipulative handle, Knueppel lacks the vertical pop or length he would need to be a great finisher. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t put pressure on the rim; quite the contrary. Instead, it means that while there are some hyperproductive drives for Knueppel, he has a steeper climb and thinner margin for error than other wings his size.
Knueppel's most effective way to pressure the rim is when attacking off of the catch. His deep shot is such an effective threat that a pump fake will get some defenders off their feet. Then, it’s an easy path for a controlled driver like Knueppel. When that doesn’t work, Knueppel deploys a steady stutter-rip move to go in either direction toward the rim. He’s not a creative finisher once he gets to the basket, but his creativity is on display at the point of attack, where he has a handful of counters and fakes to free himself.
Knueppel is also a good driver once he has a head of steam as a foil to his measured attacks from a standstill. That comes from cutting, although he’s barely done so at Duke this season, and as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He’s not the main initiator for Duke’s screening actions, but he’s up there, and that’s because he can make plays with his passes and get downhill effectively.
The issue for Knueppel is what he does once he gets to the rim. In his last season with Phenom University, Knueppel shot just 50.0% at the rim. This year at Duke is similar, as he’s shooting 54.4% on lay-up attempts. I will laud Knueppel for uncorking some halfcourt dunk attempts, but like some of his missed lay-ins, he runs into the problem that his arms are a bit too short, and his leaping is a bit too limited to keep his shot from getting frequently swatted.
On the one hand, improved spacing should get Knueppel some easier looks in the NBA. On the other hand, recovery defenders are even more athletic and ferocious at that level. I’m not convinced that Knueppel can do enough with the ball in his hands as a driver or shooter just yet to put real pressure on a defense—which is a shame, as he’s a pretty solid passer to complement his shooting.
It may not be the leading line advertising Knueppel’s offense, but he’s third on Duke in total assists with only a 9.5% turnover percentage. Sure, it’s easy to rake in dimes when he’s passing to such a talented team, but I won’t hold that against him after seeing how he gets his assists. There are some lower-hanging fruit of precise cut passes and transition feeds, all of which are the types of reads Knueppel is expected to hit in the NBA.
Those are great, sure, but I’m more intrigued by what Knueppel does out of the pick-and-roll. While his finishing leaves something to be desired, his passing is so good that teams can’t ignore him as a creator of these actions. That opens up kick-outs, skips, drop-offs, and dump-offs to all his Blue Devil teammates, contributing to his “Excellent” rating as a pick-and-roll ball-handler on Synergy when his passing numbers are considered.
Inside of Knueppel’s pick-and-roll manipulation is his chemistry with Khaman Maluach. I’m sure many players would look good throwing lobs to Maluach, given his size and catch radius, but Knueppel creates space for lobs with his movement and hits his big man at the exact right spot each time. This passing accuracy makes me bullish on NBA teams letting Knueppel handle the ball more than expected, mostly because he’s a skilled alley-oop passer.
So, with many good skills and a few worrisome ones, where does that leave Knueppel as an offensive prospect? At a bare minimum, he grades out as a knockdown shooter off the catch, a smart player who occasionally makes some plays at the rim, and a heady passer who you can rely on to keep plays alive. That’s the profile of a good wing role player at the NBA level, a lucrative role always in demand.
That isn’t all that Knueppel can be, however. Teams will have to respect him more if he can become a slightly better finisher. That’ll further open up his passing as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is elite enough that he should prioritize this growth. Knueppel, with his dribbling, burst, and added finishing, would be worthy of being a tertiary creator for an NBA team, whether that’s as a starter or as a sixth man. That would be excellent value and a worthy lesson learned for a team looking to score in the late lottery or the middle of the first round of the NBA draft.
Inside Scoring Package: Reply Hazy, Try Again
Outside Scoring Package: Yes Definitely
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: Outlook Good
Defensive Divination
I won’t mince words in this column section: Kon Knueppel is a below-average defender by my evaluation.
Now that the cat is out of the bag, it’s worth talking about what goes into Knueppel’s defense, where it needs work, and what he can feasibly improve upon at the next level. Knueppel doesn’t need to become a good defender to reach a positive outcome, but it will be a cap on his minutes and ceiling if he can’t do much to stop the bleeding.
Like we always do now, I’ll start with the positives. Knueppel’s advanced feel for the game shines in how he plays defense, just like it does for his offense. He has an innate sense of where to be and when, which helps him compensate for his average athletic profile on the wing. He isn’t perfect as an off-ball defender, but it helps him always make his rotations and stay fundamental on his closeouts.
Almost all of Kon Knueppel’s steals are from jumping the passing lanes or tipping an errant toss his way. He only has a 1.7% steals percentage at Duke, which is perfectly average, but that’s also due to how he plays off-ball defense. He’s more willing to stay in his spot than gamble for steals, which leads to less volume but more control on that end.
The weakest part of Knueppel’s off-ball defense is his ability to recover and navigate screens. He’s not a slippery horizontal athlete, which teams have already noticed, and he often gets hung up on screens away from the play. That puts Duke’s entire team into the rotation, although it isn’t due to a lack of effort from Knueppel when he’s trying to get back to a shooter or work his way through a pick.
The fact that Knueppel is trying is laudable. The fact that he has such a hard time working through screens is concerning. I can’t quite tell if it’s a purely physical limitation on his game or if it speaks to a singular hole in his in-game awareness, but it’s a problem nonetheless. Smart teams like the Warriors, Celtics, and Cavaliers, to name a few, would frazzle Knueppel with their off-ball actions, and it’s the clearest reason that Knueppel might not be able to play many postseason minutes—if any at all.
What keeps Knueppel on the floor defensively is the effort that he puts in. He’s the first to the floor, isn’t afraid to put his body on the line to take charge, and never gives up on the play. If this sounds stereotypical for players of Knueppel’s je ne sais quoi, I see your point. Acknowledging that shouldn’t detract from the admirable effort and hunger that Knueppel plays with on defense to compensate for his lack of skill.
The same goes for his on-ball defense. On the surface, Knueppel is a below-average defender on drives and pick-and-roll. He gets beaten off the dribble too often and puts pressure on the rest of his defense that way. Still, Knueppel tries his best to recover and stays grounded on his contests and closeouts, which helps his metrics improve as an on-ball defender.
The outlook for Kon Knueppel is an oxymoron in its simplicity and complexity. If Knueppel could fight through screens better, he’d be good enough to survive on defense. If he were a better vertical or horizontal athlete, he’d also have the chops to hack it. If his steals percentage was just a bit higher, he could reasonably generate enough turnovers to compensate for his faults.
Since he can’t do that yet, Knueppel will be more of a role player than an assured starter in the NBA. It’s contingent on his finishing and, more importantly, his defense to carve out a role on a winning team in this manner. Given how well he’s adjusted to a new role at Duke, I’m bullish that Knueppel can become a league-average defender if he digs in and commits, but that’ll be a surprise more than the expected outcome if or when it happens.
Perimeter Defense: Better Not Tell You Now
Interior Defense: Don’t Count on It
Team Tasseography
I’ve alluded to the fact a few times already, but it bears repeating, given how seamlessly Kon Knueppel has made it look. The role that Knueppel plays for Duke, where he’s a spot-up shooter and the co-secondary creator, is a far cry from what he’s done for his entire career up until now, which is startling and convincing to see from him.
It’s clear why Knueppel is not the primary ball-handler, as not giving Cooper Flagg the lion’s share of touches would make this Duke team worse. It is notable, however, that Knueppel both spurned the chance to play for a team like Virginia or Illinois, where he would’ve gotten more on-ball reps as an alpha scorer and has still earned the opportunities he has on offense.
Taking the same amount of shots and having virtually the same total assists as a veteran guard in Tyrese Proctor shows what makes this Duke team so dangerous as a unit. If Flagg is doubled, he can find one of Knueppel or Proctor to create an easy look. Or he can pass it on to Sion James to do the same. Or he can lob it to Khaman Maluach. Or he can kick it out to Knueppel, Isaiah Evans, Mason Gillis, Proctor, or James, as they all shoot over 35.5% from deep on the year.
That spacing element, combined with Flagg’s gravity as a star, has helped his Duke team to flourish on offense. Per BartTorvik, the Blue Devils are second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. When you pair that with the suffocating defense from Flagg, Maluach, James, and Maliq Brown, which ranks fourth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, you get the only team outside of Houston with a spot in the top five in both categories.
All of this is to say that Knueppel deserves his flowers for fitting in to help this team succeed, and he’ll probably never play in such an idealized context. It took maturity to curtail his game to fit next to a better star, but that’s exactly what Knueppel will have to do in the NBA. Another story is whether he’ll have this sort of sterling spacing, dynamic defense, and disciplined dominance on both ends.
That’s what I find most interesting in the context of Kon Knueppel at the college level. He could’ve gone to a different school and developed his on-ball offense at the NCAA level. Maybe that would’ve given him a better star sell to teams and changed the trajectory of his draft stock. Instead, to accentuate an already-good team and to potentially win a title, Knueppel sacrificed.
That doesn’t go unnoticed for me and certainly won’t for evaluators. There were fewer futures where Kon Knueppel was a good enough creator for himself or others, and he would’ve deserved that role in the NBA. Instead, Knueppel has shown he’s just good enough on defense and more than good enough on offense to be a high-level role-playing wing.
Those wing players are a scarce and sacred commodity in the NBA because they are malleable in building winning lineups. Despite him likely never getting to play in such an idealized context again, Knueppel bolstering this Duke roster is only a positive for him. Thus, while he had to sacrifice some of his own game to showcase for scouts, he showed instead that winning matters to him most, and he’s willing and able to learn and adjust his game to make that dream a reality.
The Final Shake
As an avid NBA draft follower, I’ve made my fair share of mistakes. Each mistake has been a lesson that I’ve hoped will help me improve, and with Kon Knueppel, I’m trying not to make the same mistake twice. Although he lacks some of the athleticism I crave in a wing, there’s simply too much good stuff for him to be just a shooter in his position.
He’ll likely start in that role, as NBA squads can never get enough shooters on the floor. If he only ever develops as a pure floor spacer, Knueppel will likely play a fruitful NBA career. Look at what players of similar ilk like Sam Hauser, Isaiah Joe, or Corey Kispert are getting paid on their second contracts. Those numbers look reasonable for Knueppel if he shoots the ball like he’s shown he can.
Suppose Knueppel can burnish a few of the weak points in his game; in that scenario, his ceiling and ability to impact winning rises further. A slightly better defensive Knueppel is an NBA starter. A Knueppel who can finish at the rim reliably deserves tertiary creation responsibilities. A version that does both might even demand some sleeper star consideration and could factor in as the third or fourth-best player on a contending team.
All of that is still up in the air, but what isn’t is Kon Knueppel’s talent and ability to mold his game to help his team win. For me, the biggest lesson from Knueppel’s game is that he’s primed to fit into any role that a team could feasibly want him to at the next level. That’s incredibly important and explains why I'll likely learn my lesson by the end of the cycle and comfortably slot Knueppl into the top half of my first round prospects on my draft board.