Magic 8 Ballers: Maxime, Um, Overdrive
In this edition of Magic 8 Ballers, Rowan takes a look at one of the more offensively gifted centers in the 2025 NBA Draft Class: Stanford's Maxime Raynaud.
Ah, senior year. It can be many things, but it often is a triumphant graduation and completion benchmark. Other times, it can be a disappointing deflation of a proverbial balloon building up for at least four years. I can barely remember what I learned at the end of my senior year of high school, but I distinctly remember the thud of the pandemic interrupting my senior year of college.
That’s enough about me, as you’re not here to read a scouting report on me. A senior season for a draft prospect is often viewed through various contexts that may or may not be fair to a player. Why didn’t they come out for the draft after their freshman year? Did they have a sophomore slump? Have they tangibly improved their skills to a point that they belong in the league, or are they just older and tougher than everyone else?
Those conversations are important, but can end up reductive to a player’s skills. While an older prospect might perceive a limited ceiling, that doesn’t have to be true. Likewise, there’s a bit of a stigma against being a “finished product” who can contribute meaningfully in several areas to an NBA team from day one. That still has value to teams that want to contend or are eager to tank.
This week’s Magic 8 Ballers focuses on a player who’s had a strong senior season that has, alongside a strong workout and combine circuit, cemented him as a likely draftee in the 2025 NBA Draft Class: Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud. It’s been a steady climb for Raynaud at Stanford, with improvements each year, and I’m confident that he’ll both be drafted and play a role early in his NBA career.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
Raynaud is one of many French college and professional players who have had a significant impact on the American basketball scene for many years. He graduated from Lycée Henri-IV high school while spending his youth development in France, playing for Nanterre. There, Raynaud slowly ascended the ranks of the youth system and briefly crossed paths with fellow past draft prospect Victor Wembanyama, becoming close friends in the meantime.
While Wembanyama took a more direct route to the NBA due to his wunderkind status, Raynaud had a stable path to Stanford. He was a fixture on multiple youth French basketball teams, playing in the prestigious Adidas Next Generation Tournament. He earned a silver medal at the 2019 FIBA U16 European Championship and, more recently, a gold medal at the 2023 FIBA U20 European Championship.
After his successful youth career, Stanford stealthily recruited Raynaud during the pandemic. It was a stark transition to move to the States for college basketball, but Raynaud’s love of hoops and mathematics made Stanford one of the few schools that made sense for him from a university perspective.
From a basketball perspective, Maxime Raynaud makes sense for every team. As a legitimate seven-footer with a lean build, Raynaud has a sizable advantage you simply can’t teach. Although his wingspan is fairly short for a player of his size, Raynaud’s reach is still a dangerous aspect of his game on both ends of the floor, alongside his lightness on his feet as a big man.
At Stanford, Raynaud has had a steady developmental rise from project center to centerpiece of the team. Across his four years, he never wavered from the Cardinal as his team and played with talented teammates like Spencer Jones, Harrison Ingram, Andrej Stojakovic, Brandon Angel, and Kanaan Carlyle. While some of his fellow Stanford stars either left early for the NBA or “greener” portal pastures, Raynaud stayed at Stanford across his four-year career in an increasingly rare move in today’s college basketball landscape.
Raynaud went from a sparingly played freshman to a developing sophomore before locking down the starting pivot spot for his junior and senior seasons. This season was a triumph for Raynaud, as he led the ACC in rebounding and ranked second in scoring in the conference. His growth in multiple areas of his game sent his stock from simmering to a full-blown burst by the end of the year, and this season has firmly planted him on NBA radars for this draft class.
Occult Offense
The main appeal of Maxime Raynaud as a draft prospect is his offensive arsenal. There are similar offensively talented centers at both the college and NBA level, but they’re still enough of a cryptid that the archetype of “unicorn” has some fleeting utility. While it’s become more common for seven-footers to be skilled on the perimeter and interior on offense, that doesn’t make it less valuable when a player like Raynaud can do what he does.
Raynaud’s effectiveness on offense stems from the damage he can do right at the basket. Raynaud already has a height advantage as a seven-footer, but it would be rendered moot without his patience, touch, and force near the rim. While it’s sparingly used in the modern game, Raynaud has a robust post-up package that he can use to get an easy bucket.
Per Synergy, on 152 post-up attempts, Raynaud shot a healthy 50.7% for a “Very Good” play rating. While that volume won’t be the same at the NBA level, which raises some fair concerns on how Raynaud butters his bread as an offensive engine, his post-ups were the most reliable play that Stanford’s 78th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency, per BartTorvik, could go to with him on the floor. His mix of drop-steps, spins, and baby hooks with either hand lofted over the primary defender was enough to flummox any defender who tried to wall off the paint.
Outside of his post game, Raynaud’s touch is most apparent when he’s putting back offensive rebounds. He’s skilled at snagging boards and quickly jumping to lay them up, while being one of the last of a dying breed of tip-in artists. Raynaud shot 67.4% on his putbacks, including a 63.6% clip on tip-ins specifically, which speaks to how he can use his size on the offensive glass.
Raynaud is also adept at finding little pockets of space by the rim or cutting into the paint at the right time. As seen on his hook shots and tip-ins, Raynaud’s touch might be the best of any center in the class, which he displayed with his mid-range floaters and runners. Per Synergy, Raynaud shot a hearty 64.7% on his cuts, whether getting to the rim for an easy look or using his reliable floater.
Where Raynaud can still stand to improve as a finisher is on his rolls to the rim. He was the primary screener for the Cardinal, but rarely rolled hard to the rim for a lob or dish. Instead, Raynaud would often pop out, pump fake, and drive to the basket. While effective and a great ceiling raiser for his offensive game as a center, he won’t have as many chances to isolate off a screen and go to work, which he only did so to the tune of 47.2% from two-point range per Synergy.
There’s enough good in Raynaud’s game as a finisher that his impending transition from offensive fulcrum to ancillary option should be fine. He’ll need to recommit to rolling to the rim, but his light feet and soft hands make his seven-foot catch radius more appealing to his point guards. His work on the offensive glass will also be an easy source of success for him at the next level.
What helps Raynaud stand out from other players his size is his shooting. Mechanically, it’s not the best jump shot, as he has a slow release that requires some extra loading up. That affects Raynaud’s ability to take shots off the dribble more than off the catch, but it does even out the advantages he has as a seven-footer with his high release point, which no one can bother with.
The best part of Raynaud’s shooting portfolio is his ability as a spot-up shooter. When he has time to get his feet set, catch the ball cleanly, and simply aim and fire, there are few more intimidating long bombing big men. Raynaud hit a scorching 44.0% of his 84 spot-up three pointers, which is both highly efficient and done on a scalable volume to the next level.
Where the shooting becomes a bit more theoretical is what he does off movement. Whether it’s taking shots off the dribble, where Raynaud was just 2-of-20 on dribble threes, or on pick-and-pops, where Raynaud was 22-of-78 or 28.2%, there simply wasn’t consistency or evidence that he is more than a standstill shooter at this juncture. The balance and slow release are his biggest impediments to shooting on the move, but truthfully, as a center, Raynaud won’t be asked to take too many of these shots at the next level.
The mere fact that Raynaud consistently stretches the floor for his team and is a consistent threat to hit three-pointers makes him an immediate valuable center. There are a handful of NBA players who, regardless of their other foibles, have carved out modern careers as stretch-fives. While Raynaud may not have the star ceiling for a stretch-five that would ultimately make him a “unicorn” player, he’s still a pegasus or hippogriff-level anomaly with his accuracy and deadliness from deep.
Outside of his scoring and rebounding, Maxime Raynaud is a fairly even player as a passer and ball-handler. His playmaking doesn’t unlock great dimensions for offense, but he also isn’t a black hole-esque turnover machine. He’s done a great job of consistently lowering his turnover percentage across his college career, but he hasn’t meaningfully improved as a passer.
Instead, Raynaud has taken more shots as he assumes more offensive responsibilities and marginally handles double teams better than he used to. Raynaud has had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio in his last two seasons, casting doubt on whether he could handle some offensive loads as a bench big at the next level.
It’s a frustrating mix of positives and negatives when looking at Maxime Raynaud’s playmaking. For as many slick behind-the-back feeds or pinpoint backdoor bounce passes to cutters, Raynaud also uses a lazy underhand feed or mis-times a pass in the flow of the offense. Alongside his smaller issues with offensive fouls and travels, there is a gap between where Raynaud is now as a passer and where he’d need to be even to run side actions of an NBA offense.
Raynaud’s function in a pro-style offense will be limited without a consistent shot on the move or passing package. He does a great job on the interior and as a catch-and-shooter, which will keep him at a minimum on the floor for spot minutes, but he doesn’t quite have enough to his game to demand a starting spot without further improvement.
Still, as a true center, Raynaud has more than enough offensive appeal to stand out from the less versatile big men in the class. It may not come early in his career, as he’ll have some defensive hurdles to overcome, but Raynaud’s offense is similar to other bench stalwarts like Luke Kornet or Luka Garza, each of whom has carved out their distinct niche off the bench for their teams.
Inside Scoring Package: You May Rely On It
Outside Scoring Package: Signs Point to Yes
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: My Reply is No
Defensive Divination
Compared to the past, being a seven-footer on defense isn’t quite what it used to be. Before the era of spacing, it was easier to simply be a big presence in the lane to have defensive utility. Now, with a wider lane and a much wider geometry to consider when guarding the rim, giants of the game have to either be elite by the basket or quick enough to guard well away from it.
Sadly, Maxime Raynaud is neither of these things. In a sense, Raynaud is a solid rim protector. In others, he’s a liability on defense inside and out. That’s the biggest impediment to Raynaud’s future as an NBA player and the role he could play for his future team. While NBA teams stock their bench with needed tall bodies who fill important niches, the fact that Raynaud is a poor defender makes his case murkier.
It’s worth noting what Raynaud can do on defense before fixating on what he can’t. His positives on that end stem from his height and wingspan, which help him to control the defensive glass. Raynaud has never had a defensive rebounding percentage less than 23.0% in his career, with a career high of 28.7% this season. Raynaud’s frame and length help him jostle for boards and reach faraway caroms that shorter centers couldn’t reach without excessive effort.
Raynaud is at his best as a rim defender when he can camp in the paint and use his verticality. Although he doesn’t have a plus wingspan, there’s still a lot of Raynaud for players to try to finish over. Raynaud had a career-high 4.6% block percentage this season, which came from his walling off the paint in one-on-one situations. Whether a player tried to post him up or forced a shot near him, Raynaud was an impediment against stationary offensive players.
Raynaud’s defense falters when he’s forced to defend any actions on the move. I’ve left that ambiguous because it refers to any actions on the perimeter or when a player attacks the rim with any sort of shake, change of direction, or adjusted speed. Per Synergy, Maxime Raynaud only “held” opponents to hitting 52.3% of their shots at the rim, which is high enough at the college level to raise concerns for his NBA rim-protecting future.
It’s more about how players are getting their shots off against Raynaud that makes me leery of his defense. Smaller guards can blow by him and outrun him to the rim, eliminating the fear of his contest. Stronger players can move him off his spot and finish over him, which is also a concern. Finally, Raynaud's feet were stuck in the mud whenever a player threw a fake or used a move to attack the paint at an angle.
Raynaud’s difficulty guarding the rim was excusable when he was offensively carrying such a heavy load at Stanford, but there’s no margin for error at the NBA level. He’ll be a role player offensively, so his defense will be much more important and frequently targeted by teams. Also, the caliber of athleticism in the NBA is stark compared to this year’s ACC outside of Duke, which makes Raynaud’s struggles as a mobile rim protector all the more concerning.
It doesn’t get much better on the perimeter. Raynaud is neither a gambling, handsy big who can somewhat compensate for his lack of foot speed nor a switchable big who can stay in front of smaller players despite his size. This weakness was exploited in the ACC and is one that NBA teams will surely target at the next level as well.
Raynaud’s perimeter struggles are primarily a result of his hulking size. He’s too slow to stay in front of players with a lot of shake to their game, while also not having the girth to knock players off their drive path. Big wings, in particular, had success attacking Raynaud from the perimeter, which is exactly what jumbo and combo forwards in the NBA will seek to do on forced switches.
It’s not much better for Raynaud’s ability to close out on shooters, as his same slowness takes away from his height advantage. Raynaud would often be a step slow on closeouts and multiple steps slow to contest compared to quicker and more reactive off-ball defenders. He did force his fair share of misses with his length, but that won’t fly the same way at the NBA level.
It’s not a rosy prognosis for Maxime Raynaud as a defender, but he’ll always have the allure of his height to keep up the belief. There’s a lot of technique and conditioning work for Raynaud to do to be a capable defender at the next level, and despite his size, there isn’t enough rim protection to even view Raynaud as a drop coverage center. The biggest impediment to Raynaud’s NBA future is his defense, and the question that front offices will have to answer is whether it’s enough of a minus to outweigh the pluses of his offense.
Perimeter Defense: Don’t Count on It
Interior Defense: Outlook Not So Good
Team Tasseography
The context for Maxime Raynaud’s success at Stanford is humorously similar to those I’ve given for players like Tucker DeVries and Dillon Jones in past Magic 8 Ballers articles. Stanford is not a mid-major in terms of conference, resources, or talent, but how the team played around Raynaud this year looks eerily similar to the star-dependent ecosystems of smaller schools.
It wasn’t always like this for Raynaud, and appreciating his slow journey to college stardom is worth appreciating. He never skipped steps by venturing into the portal for a bigger opportunity, and played multiple roles for the Cardinal over his four years. It’s a testament to Raynaud’s talent that he developed into a top offensive option on a power conference team and expanded his game meaningfully.
This year’s Cardinal team was successful in its first ACC season, albeit without a tournament appearance. This was mostly due to their empty calorie win profile, with their best win of the year coming against North Carolina. They beat Cal three times, padded their win column with victories over bottom-feeders Virginia and Virginia Tech, and had a weaker nonconference slate. They didn’t pick up any signature wins despite chances versus Duke, Louisville, Oregon, or Clemson, and saw little success in the NIT.
A big reason behind the team’s lack of postseason success was their lack of talent around Raynaud. The rest of the Cardinal in Kyle Smith’s first year at the helm were underwhelming, as only Oziyah Sellers and Jaylen Blakes averaged double-digit scoring this season alongside Raynaud. The team did a great job coming together overall as a product, but it’s hard to argue that they had top-end talent similar to that of the ACC contenders.
That lack of talent around Raynaud gave him the vacuum to grow into the offensive star he was this year. That’s not to throw shade on the tangible growth that Raynaud has made, but if he weren’t the north star for his team, he wouldn’t have been able to work through his weaknesses through reps as easily. Thus, while Stanford didn’t have enough top-end talent to contend for an ACC title, it did provide Raynaud with the stage he needed to succeed from a draft perspective.
Whether that will carry on at the next level is the next question for Raynaud. He led his team to 20 wins as a top option without his stats dipping against Top 75 competition. Will that cut it at the next level, where the competition is stiffer than a down-year ACC? That’s what Raynaud will have to prove on fewer touches than he had this year and with a much thinner margin for error with the rest of his play.
The Final Shake
In his senior season, Maxime Raynaud took his development into overdrive, and he became a full-time Stanford Cardinal star. He carried a heavier offensive weight than in past seasons, scored inside and outside the arc as the team’s leading scorer, and helped them reach 20 wins for the first time since the 2019-2020 season.
Despite Raynaud’s offensive talent, whether and where he can stick at the NBA level is still unanswered. As a true towering presence who can shoot accurately off the catch, it’s easy to see Raynaud thriving in the spaced-out systems of today’s NBA. His ability to impact the offensive glass and his reliability as a finisher also paint a rosy outlook for Raynaud as an NBA-ready center offensively.
The defense and athleticism are where the questions rightfully come into Raynaud’s outlook. He’s unplayable as a switchable big and has some real holes in his rim protection. Raynaud will likely be confined to the paint as an NBA center without being quick on his feet. That makes it a bigger issue that he’s not a reliable rim anchor. There’s certainly a place for offensive sparkplugs off the bench, but even offensively-skewed bigs like Naz Reid have improved their defense enough to hang on at the highest level.
The crux of Raynaud's draft status is whether teams believe he can do that. His performance at the NBA combine and subsequent shutdown seem to indicate a latent level of interest for NBA teams. The answer to what Raynaud can do at the next level and what role he’ll play will drive where he’ll end up and in what round of this year’s draft.
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