Magic 8 Ballers: Milan Momcilovic, Mysteries or Multitudes?
Rowan Kent takes a look Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic, focusing on what makes him such an intriguing forward prospect to consider for the 2025 NBA Draft Class!
When peering into the future of basketball as we know it, a multitude of possible kaleidoscopic futures present themselves. There are equally likely divergent paths where, as a sport… wait, haven’t we been here before? Is time a flat circle, looping back to the first column I wrote for No Ceilings just over a year ago?
I wouldn’t go that far, but the cyclical nature of the NBA Draft process often offers up thousands of different “what ifs” and other futures. It’s both the joy and the difficulty of the practice to figure out who will stick and which skills are more ready for the next level than others.
This creepy column aimed to focus on various players, examine their games in-depth, and try to guess their future at the NBA level. I certainly swung and missed on a few players for the 2024 draft class who didn’t end up coming out of college, but it was a worthwhile exercise to shine a spotlight on many prospects who deserved that extra attention.
So, we’re back! Another year, another chance to get better, and a further foray into the shaking of a hypothetical Magic 8 Ball to decipher a player’s future. I’ll continue to scour for the most interesting prospects for this article, looking for players with a muddled future that could go all sorts of directions.
To start, I gave the 8 ball a few shakes and peered inside to find out about one of the best freshman shooters in the country last year: Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic. With another year of college basketball ahead of him, will he take college by storm with some polished additions to his game, or is his outlook a little stormier than it looked during his first college season?
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
When looking at who Milan Momcilovic is as a basketball player, it’s important to get some grounding not only in his college play but in his high school career as well. It’s easy to ignore some past developmental signals for players who return to college, as they feel like more finished products than others. But given that Momcilovic is still relatively young, it’s worth digging back into his skills in high school alongside his singular college season.
During his last AAU season, Momcilovic cut his teeth at Pewaukee High School in Iowa, starring for the Pewaukee Pirates and Team Herro. He was a skilled scoring threat at all levels, averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds as a senior for the Pirates, and, per Synergy, led Team Herro in scoring as well.
Momcilovic, at a solid 6’8” and 225 pounds, has prototypical size for the power forwards of yore. He isn’t an immovable object in the paint; instead, he keeps his game much more mobile on the perimeter and inside. Momcilovic is more of a finesse player than a bruiser, but he’s a much more deadly scalpel than a sledgehammer on the court.
As a freshman, Momcilovic had some expectations placed upon him but wasn’t considered the first-year player who’d make the most impact. That weight fell upon Omaha Billew, who had a tougher first season and ultimately transferred to Wake Forest for his sophomore year. Momcilovic instead was the freshman stalwart, one of the three players on the team who started all 37 games for the Cyclones on their way to the Big 12 Tournament Title and an appearance in the Sweet Sixteen.
No matter how you slice it, Momcilovic was a major cog in the well-oiled machine for Iowa State. He was fourth on the team in scoring per game, second in three-point percentage for players who took more than one three per game, fourth in rebounding, fourth in assists, and third in blocks per contest. The all-around effort that Momcilovic had on both ends of the floor belied the specialist role he played for the Cyclones.
Although he was certainly not a stiff on defense, Momcilovic primarily served as the team’s best offensive weapon from the forward or wing position. It was his job to rain destruction upon opposing defenses, which he did with aplomb all year. But, with a year under his belt and more attention from an opposing defense, what about Momcilovic’s offense makes him a great candidate to keep showing off his pro-ready offensive arsenal?
Occult Offense
I’ll start the offense section with the single most important part of Milan Momcilovic’s game: his shooting. As a 6’8” forward/wing, other than being a lockdown switch defender, there’s no more important skill that Momcilovic could bring to the table than knockdown shooting to space the floor.
Luckily, that’s his specialty. Momcilovic has a quick release and a high release point, and he stays balanced even when his feet aren’t, which are all hallmarks of high-quality shooters. He can also get to his shot off the dribble, off of movement, in transition, or at a standstill with a defender crashing down on him. If it sounds too good to be true for a shooter, it kind of is; there aren’t any real holes to poke in Momcilovic’s shooting.
Juxtaposing his transition threes with his spot-up threes illuminates his quick release better than the numbers, although those are good, too. I only say “good” as, per Synergy, Momcilovic did shoot 30.9% on his 2.5 spot-up three-point attempts per game. Arguing in favor of that number being a mark of a good shooter would be foolish. However, it’s the least instructive statistic about Momcilovic’s shooting, given how it looks on film and how the rest of his shooting numbers bear out.
Per Synergy, Momcilovic shot a clean 50.0% from deep in transition, although it was across 22 attempts on the year. On his 30 attempts off screening actions, he shot 43.3% from deep. Those two numbers, when rolling up all of his long bombs, account for 170 three-point attempts on the season, which he canned at 35.9% while taking 4.6 a game.
While the numbers might not bear out as an immediate “elite” shooter, the tape certainly paints a rosier picture. There was simply no contest in college basketball last year that could affect Momcilovic’s shot. He was also supremely confident in taking shots in the flow of the offense, which was one of the crucial cogs that kept an otherwise middling offensive team from being too one-dimensional.
This wouldn’t be the first case where a good shooter hasn’t had the shooting numbers to prove they’re a good shooter. On the one hand, maybe Momcilovic’s shooting stroke is a bit of fool’s gold if he’s not hitting more spot-up threes. More likely in my mind, however, is that the other sterling shooting numbers he’s shown are the real indicators of what he can do in a well-spaced offense that caters to his best.
However, deep shooting isn’t the only feather he has in his cap as a shooter. In the same way that the 30.9% on spot-ups should be examined, the sparkling 50.6% that Milan Momcilovic shot on two-point jumpers also deserves a close investigation. Those numbers are such an outlier that other mid-range savants like Dirk Nowtizki and Kevin Durant, amongst others, are some of the only names considered to be that consistent from the mid-range.
And look, I won’t compare Momcilovic to either of them. He’s shorter and less athletic than both. However, he can ignore contests and utilize a dangerous fadeaway jumper, which he has in common with each of them. When driving and pulling up, Momcilovic stays balanced and decelerates quickly, all while using his lower body to create an inch of space. These elements make him one of the more potent pull-up shooters in this upcoming draft class when they work in concert.
While his pull-up propensity is impressive, Momcilovic’s fadeaway might be even more noteworthy. He is supremely confident in it, deploying it whenever he faces a defender taller and stronger than him or when the shot clock is ticking down. It’s hypnotically robotic how easy a shot this difficult looks for him. It would be an issue if it was a main part of his shot diet, but instead, it’s an emergency tool that he expertly uses when he needs a bucket.
I'd be worried about his fadeaway if it were the only tool in Momcilovic’s arsenal. Instead, it’s a major boon for a prospect his age to have a reliable fallback shot option for him to use when he’s isolating against a defender. Momcilovic isn’t a great driver due to his upright dribbling and average handle, so his jump shot must be as good as it is.
Milan Momcilovic, for lack of a better descriptor, is a 1.5-dimensional offensive player. He isn’t just a shooter due to his craft in the post and solid driving capabilities, but you’d never confuse him with other scorers who can pressure the rim easily. I had to check this at least a dozen times on Synergy because I didn’t believe it, but Momcilovic only took 23 shots at the rim last year.
I don’t care that he hit those at 60.9%. I don’t care that he has a good touch around the hoop. If Momcilovic doesn’t have the burst to get there reliably or even more than less than one time a game, he’ll also have a defined ceiling. Again, from a pure talent perspective, Momcilovic can get to and finish at the rim. At the rate he’s doing so, however, he’s only truly a threat to score from the perimeter—and that limitation will be notable for NBA evaluators.
If he was a better passer, I may be less worried about Momcilovic’s offensive ceiling, but he’s only okay in that department. Given that he wasn’t the main offensive threat for Iowa State, I’m not surprised that he wasn’t making advanced passing reads to juice the offense, but I wish to see a few more exotic looks on tape. Most of Momcilovic’s assists are the uninspiring variety that simply happens within the flow of the offense and don’t represent on-ball creativity.
The more concerning side of the coin to Momcilovic’s spreading of the ball is how he gives it away. He’s not a high turnover player, as he only had a minuscule 7.8% turnover percentage last season, but that speaks to how quickly he would end a possession with the ball in his hands by firing off a shot. When asked to put the ball on the floor or make something out of nothing, Momcilovic didn’t do enough to inspire confidence in either area.
In many ways, breaking down Milan Momcilovic’s offensive game feels like a litany of contradictions. If his shooting looks so good, why can’t he hit more spot-up threes? With such a potent fadeaway and pull-up, how can his handle get him into that much trouble? If he can finish well at the rim, why doesn’t he get there more? I trust that if I ask these questions, NBA scouts and GMs will be doing the same and have probably done so already.
Even if Momcilovic had never developed as an offensive player, his shooting skill was good enough that he could carve out a niche NBA role. You just can’t find enough players at his height who can stripe shots like he can. Whether Momcilovic is a specialized role player or not will depend on whether he can start to improve on some of the other offensive elements of his game and become more of an all-around player ready for the modern NBA game.
Inside Scoring Package: Concentrate and Ask Again
Outside Scoring Package: It is Decidedly So
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: Outlook Not So Good
Defensive Divination
If I were to distill modern scouting down to its essence, it would be the eternal struggle between the phrases “defense wins championships” and “this game is all about buckets.” While I’m kidding (mostly), I often struggle to quantify the value of players skewed toward offense or defense to an extreme degree. It’s always a case-by-case for players like Ryan Dunn—or, in this case, Milan Momcilovic—to see if their excellent offense or defense can overcome the issues on the other end.
Before diving into Momcilovic’s defense, there are a few important caveats. It’s not that Momcilovic is a terrible defender; it would be hard to exist in T.J. Otzelberger’s haywire system at Iowa State and be a net negative. Rather, given Momcilovic’s shooting, the gulf between his offensive value and defensive utility is one of the larger ones in this draft class, even when thinking about current and future production.
So, how is Milan Momcilovic as a defender? He’s complicated, just like he is on offense. Momcilovic’s height and quickness combo lends to some positive elements he can bring to a defense, but his slight weight for a forward/wing does limit what he can do against stronger players. Then again, some of his work on the interior is more impressive than what he does when isolated on an island.
Let’s start with the positives. Milan Momcilovic’s defense value comes from his mind and reflexes on that end. He’s a heady defender who can muck up opposing sets and possessions by gambling at the correct time and making the correct rotation before the other team sees it coming. These are the staples of not only good defenders but also good defenders who aren’t elite athletes, which is the category where Momcilovic lives on both ends. Momcilovic is also one of the first players to the floor, willing to put his body on the line for loose balls that can shift the momentum of a game.
Despite his plus height, Momcilovic isn’t a plus rebounder for his position. Sure, he did average 3.1 boards last season, but he was neither a force on the offensive glass nor a defensive anchor that could gobble up rebounds. Instead, like most of his steals, Momcilovic derives his value as a rebounder from anticipation and guile, worming his way past a better-positioned player or being the better-positioned one himself.
It’s in the situations where Momcilovic ends up on an island as the primary defender where he’s hunted most. The fact that Momcilovic is a tweener on offense is a plus due to his versatility; the reality that he’s a tweener on defense hurts him most. He’s neither quick enough laterally to stay with guards, leading to multiple blowbys, and he’s not strong enough to deal with heavier players who want to bang down low in the post.
While Momcilovic doesn’t look like a true interior anchor, some of his numbers on Synergy paint a different picture. Although it’s a small sample size of only 36 possessions at the rim, Momcilovic did hold players to just a 33.3% percent clip. That would be an elite number, but it doesn’t hold up when watching possessions where Momcilovic gets the credit as a close defender when he isn’t even in the play. There are, however, enough interesting plays where Momcilovic uses his length and timing to stifle attempts at the basket.
This leaves Momcilovic as a better team defender than an individual one. He’s not the first and won’t be the last offensively-inclined player who needs to be schemed around on defense, but it’s a finer band of success that he has to fit into. The shooting helps, but the team defense instincts that Momcilovic has shown will need to stay consistent in his second year at Iowa State.
If he can maintain that positivity on defense, Momcilovic’s NBA future will have many more doors for success. If he stays a flawed defender, however, it will be a much harder sell for NBA teams to believe that, if the shooting dips, Momcilovic can continue to offer more solutions to a team than problems.
Perimeter Defense: Ask Again Later
Interior Defense: Cannot Predict Now
Team Tasseography
It’s always fascinating to consider the new team context of a freshman phenom who comes back to their team. In many ways, Momcilovic had an ideal situation around him last year on the Cyclones. Who’s to say that he can buck a well-established trend of sophomore slumps and build upon the success that he had last season?
Last year’s Iowa State team was built upon a tough defensive game plan and a hodgepodge offense. No Cyclone averaged more than fourteen points a game, with Momcilovic, Keshon Gilbert, Tamin Lipsey, and Curtis Jones all averaging double digits, and the team also only ranked in the bottom half of all NCAA teams in both three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage.
The real focus for the Cyclones was on the defensive end, where Momcilovic was often shielded from his worst impulses. On inferior defensive units, teams would’ve been able to hunt Momcilovic and put him into isolation. Given the varied looks that Iowa State had throughout and the highly capable defenders around him, Momcilovic wasn’t overtaxed on his weaker end of the floor.
But, with a new roster assembled around him, will that be true this year? Gilbert, Lipsey, and Jones are still around, but the rest of the supporting cast has been reshuffled. Dishon Jackson, a transfer from Charlotte, looks set to start at center, while Joshua Jefferson, who came over from Saint Mary’s, also looks to factor into the rotation. The same is true for UNI transfer Nate Heise, who will be in the guard rotation for the team alongside Nojus Indrusaitis, who had a great summer representing Lithuania at the FIBA World Cup.
None of these players will directly push Momcilovic out for minutes, as none of them are the same hybrid forward that he is. Instead, their additions will change the quality chemistry that he felt with most of last year’s roster and force him to play slightly different roles. Will there be as many shots from deep for Momcilovic to bomb? With Jefferson and Jackson not reputable shooters, will the windows be tighter?
Another relevant question is whether Momcilovic will be asked to play as the lone big in smaller guard-centric lineups. His defensive numbers at the rim are good but don’t herald the type of small-ball five-spot minutes that some forwards can manage. The lack of defensive versatility that the other Cyclones once covered up may soon become a glaring weakness that other teams can exploit.
In truth, even with another year under his belt, there shouldn’t be drastically different expectations for how Milan Momcilovic will look. The team still has the same scoring core around him, the same head coach and defensive system that led to great success last year, and the same need for deep shooting from all positions. Theoretically, his outlook isn’t much different from last year’s successful stock building.
The risk, then, is stagnation. I’ve seen too many examples of freshman players not banking on their buzz and going to the NBA draft, only to return to college and either regress or stay the same. Neither is good in the eyes of evaluators, as it only opens prospects up for more scrutiny over time. Moreso than anything else, Milan Momcilovic will have to navigate a new roster around him and show that he’s grown his game, which is a hard bullseye to snipe, even for a marksman like him.
The Final Shake
While digging deeper into his game, I didn’t come to a consensus about Milan Momcilovic as a draft prospect. I loved to watch him shoot the ball but was perplexed by some of the associated numbers. At times, he looked like a capable driver and distributor while falling flat at others. His defense was always a mixed bag that seemed just a bit too poor to have anywhere close to the same impact as his jump shot.
Momcilovic’s jump shot will be what gets him into the league, however, and he isn’t the only shooting specialist to be drafted in recent years. Jaylen Wells, Antonio Reeves, Jordan Hawkins, Julian Strawther, and Hunter Tyson have all been drafted as shooting specialists in the past few years. While they’re all different sizes, they share the same polarizing game that Momcilovic has on both ends.
Given how reliable his jump shot progression is, it’s more of a question about how Momcilvoic can develop the other parts of his game to appeal to NBA teams. The floor would open up immensely if he could drive and pass well as even a tertiary creator. His upside would skyrocket if he was more athletic on defense or if there were real inklings that his shot-blocking numbers weren’t a bit wonky.
In that vein, Milan Momcilovic contains multiple mysteries that still need to be solved. Even in a class like this, he’s right in my first round range and should play himself there as long as his shooting doesn’t slump. If it does, Momcilovic’s draft stock could take a tumble. If not, however, his silky shot-making should be enough to land him on a team where he can bring bunches of made threes and improved spacing to their offense.
Awesome post and, not a huge deal, but Pewaukee is in Wisconsin, not Iowa.