Magic 8 Ballers: Must Watch Morsels of Khaman Maluach
Rowan looks through the small segments of tape at the tantalizing tastes of Khaman Maluach's game at Duke so far this season, with an eye on what he is now and what he could be in the future.
No matter how much preseason scouting, tape grinding, or stat crunching you do in every draft class, there are inevitable surprises. Whether that’s a player ending the season on a dubious hot streak, a touted freshman suffering an injury that clouds their true potential, or a late addition blowing expectations out of the water, monkey wrenches are often thrown into draft classes without warning and with aplomb.
These situations lead to one of the more difficult but rewarding moments as a draft fanatic: evaluating without enough evidence. For example, when a player like Victor Wembanyama plays 34 games for Metropolitans 92, there is more than plenty of statistical and visual evidence to predict his game.
When a player plays limited minutes, however, that’s where projection comes into play. It’s not as simple as looking at what a prospect does per minute, although that can be a smoking gun for what they’ll do with increased opportunities. Instead, scouting and predicting what a low-minute prospect will become one day is the holy middle ground between imagination and prognostication.
A hundred factors can explain why a player doesn’t get a lot of runs on their team, but in the end, context is crucial, and it can only get you so far. You can never be sure, but the true fun of analyzing the draft is presenting a case for what a player will be. It’s the crux of scouting and the only way to get a real adrenaline rush while typing scouting reports on a computer.
For this edition of Magic 8 Ballers, it’s time to gaze into the mysterious miasma of future possibilities, albeit without much to look at in the present. Instead, based upon scattered shards of scoops and swats, it’s time to dissect the morsels of play from Khaman Maluach. As one of Duke’s other star freshmen, Maluach has certainly gotten his share of buzz, but given his more limited role, what can we discern from his shorter run time about his NBA future?
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
Before diving in, let’s clarify a few things: while Maluach is not on the same level of recognition as fellow Blue Devil Cooper Flagg, he’s quite far from an unknown to the overall basketball landscape. That’s becoming more and more common for foreign star prospects, taking what was once only a name to many casual fans and instead offering them a real look into players before they touch down in the United States.
Maluach is hard to miss when he’s on the court, as he’s a massive 7’2” center who moves with the grace of someone half his size. He’s quick laterally, gets off the floor vertically easily, and can run the length of the court in a flash. Alongside his supreme physical talent, Maluach has great hands for catching, dropping in soft touch floaters, and swatting shots. He’s even shown a bit of a burgeoning jumper, though it’s still in the works.
It’s been a steady ascent into relevancy for Maluach, with his early career fomenting at NBA Academy Africa in Saly, Senegal. Maluach played a few seasons in the Basketball Africa League (BAL), including a dominant individual campaign last season, but the true coming out party for Maluach on a bigger stage was when he won the MVP award at the 2023 Basketball Without Borders Africa camp in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Maluach's rapid rise continued when he made the 2023 FIBA World Cup and 2024 Summer Olympics rosters for South Sudan. Against China, Maluach became the third-youngest player to suit up in a FIBA World Cup game and also played a few minutes for a plucky South Sudan team in the Olympics.
Maluach joined the litany of stars like Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis headed to college when he chose to sign with Duke and complete their stellar class. Although he was certainly a prize in and of himself, Maluach was part of a star-studded ensemble recruiting class of Cooper Flagg, Darren Harris, Isaiah Evans, and Pat Ngongba.
The choice to play at Duke gave Khaman Maluach a secure role as the team's starting center and the ability to play alongside a team talented enough to insulate him from his growing pains. There have already been some moments of magnificence for Maluach, but he’s also had some foul trouble and had to sit behind Maliq Brown in the big-man rotation for the Blue Devils.
Especially with Duke’s recent losses to Kansas and Kentucky, the team and Maluach have received more flak than expected in the early season. When compounded with Maluach only playing the sixth-most minutes on the team, there’s more doubt in the college season than in the preseason for Duke’s young big man.
So, what morsels of play have kept me a believer in Maluach’s game? Despite his limited chances on both sides of the ball, I’ve seen enough to keep Maluach at the top of my Ouija Board and assert him as the highest-ranked big man overall.
Occult Offense
The raw offensive numbers for Khaman Maluach are nothing to write home about, although that’s explained by the minutes he’s playing. At just 19.3 minutes per game, even in six starts, Maluach is putting up just 8.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.3 steals, 0.5 turnovers, and 1.3 blocks per game. No matter how you slice it, Maluach isn’t putting up the raw numbers that would indicate a lottery prospect.
When you dig deeper, Maluach is putting together a potent season in limited minutes. Per BartTorvik, he ranks eleventh in BPM across all freshmen in the country, seventh in block percentage for freshmen, and second in True Effective Shooting Percentage. These numbers, although borne of limited minutes, reflect the lethal efficiency that Maluach has demonstrated in his time on the floor.
Right now, Duke is using Khaman Maluach in an incredibly streamlined role. He’s almost completely used as a rim runner, screener, and interior finisher with the Blue Devils. Although he can shoot a bit from deep, there are enough long-range shooters for Duke in Kon Knueppel, Caleb Foster, and Tyrese Proctor to surround Maluach and Cooper Flagg on their dives to the rim.
As an interior finisher, Maluach is a dangerous weapon despite his youth and inexperience. His size allows him to finish over defenders, his length makes him hard to contest, and his soft touch around the hoop is paired with a wrathful strength. The solid leaping ability that Maluach has makes his cuts to the rim, and lob finishes impossible to stop when he gets a head of steam.
It’s a limited offensive diet for Maluach as a rim-runner, but not one without fruit. Per Synergy, Malauch is shooting an “Excellent” 80.8% at the basket so far in the young season. That number demands more touches but also speaks to Maluach's effectiveness without getting the ball often.
Maluach has also picked up the spare change from missed shots with his prevalence for putbacks. He’s shooting 71.4% on limited putback chances this season, using his preposterous length and reach to gobble up offensive boards and quickly use a well-timed second jump to jam or float in a lay-up.
Aside from simple plays like putbacks and lobs, Maluach has opened up Duke’s offense with his screens. He’s setting crushing and sturdy on-and-off ball screens for the Blue Devils, freeing up shooters to dash off picks while also giving them space to drive down the lane. It’s a great sign that Maluach has stayed engaged in the offense and put his all into playing a more minor yet necessary role.
Per Synergy, Maluach is shooting a scalding 90.9% as the roller on pick-and-rolls. Like all of Maluach’s numbers, it’s worth considering how small the sample is when evaluating his numbers, but the tape shows his finishing chops are real. He’s mixing the same soft touch and ferocity that he has on lobs and putbacks with the grace and timing needed to screen, catch, and finish.
When he reaches the NBA, Maluach will have a role similar to his current one. Smart teams will slowly start to widen his range, but like recent draft picks in Donovan Clingan and Yves Missi, most of Maluach’s early run will be down the center of the court. Notably, the Maluach does have the fluidity to drive from the perimeter one day, but that, alongside his shooting, still needs some time to develop.
Maluach has only taken four jump shots this season, with four coming from three, and has even drained a deep shot against Arizona. The bones of a good shot are there for sure, but there’s little muscle or blood around it. Maluach’s release point is good, but he doesn’t stay balanced nor get his feet under him enough. That leads to a wilder shot that can be used in an offense but could be improved.
Given the propensity of talented perimeter players and their importance, it’s become a riskier proposition for teams picking high in the lottery to draft a project big man. Maluach doesn’t do much to dispute the worries around drafting tall boom-or-bust players, but he does offer a scary amount of offensive boom in the present and future if it all comes together.
For the beginning of his career, Malauch will use his strength to screen the hell out of other teams and then slam shots down at the rim. With a few years of shooting development, however, Maluach could utilize his movement skills to drift out beyond the three-point line and do damage from there. That future looks more and more worth betting on the more that Khaman Maluach plays for Duke.
Inside Scoring Package: Without a Doubt
Outside Scoring Package: Reply Hazy, Try Again Later
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: My Sources Say No
Defensive Divination
Khaman Maluach’s greatest appeal has been on the defensive end for as long as he's been a prospect. His size, length, and mobility all give him the precise build to be a fearsome rim defender, while his reflexes, instincts, and timing all give him the edge to be more than just a basic rim protector.
The easiest way that Maluach makes Duke better is with his rebounding. Whether siphoning in misses on the offensive end or ending possessions with a defensive board, Maluach is putting in work on the glass. He’s one of only 21 freshmen with more than 10.0% offensive rebounding and 15.0% defensive rebounding percentages, representing his dominance on the glass.
When opponents have tried Khaman Maluach at the rim, they haven’t had much success. Per Synergy, Maluach is holding opponents to 54.5% at the rim, which isn’t an elite mark but one that both speaks to his limited attempts there and clouds what he’s done from a deterrence perspective. Experienced bigs like Amari Williams and Hunter Dickinson have struggled against Malauch in the post, even if the numbers don’t quite bear that out.
Although his rim percentage isn’t what one would hope from a top-tier defensive anchor, it’s clear when watching Maluach’s shot-blocking that he’s already a menace there. His ranking of seventh in block percentage for freshmen belies the utter disruption that Maluach provides at the rim when foolhardy offensive players test their luck with his hands.
Like most of Maluach’s appeal, the shot-blocking stems from his physical frame. He hasn’t been asked to shade out to the perimeter often for Duke, who have enough talented perimeter defenders there, but it’s something that NBA teams would hope he can do with enough seasoning and conditioning. That last bit has been a problem for Maluach in the early goings, as he’s dealt with some cramping issues in the non-conference schedule.
Maluach's only averaging 2.2 fouls per game is a good example of his future capabilities. The best rim protectors can stay on the floor, which Maluach can do from a foul perspective, but he needs to improve his conditioning to fully meet that ideal.
That’s also the crux of Maluach’s appeal as a prospect. He isn’t done improving as a player, with much room to grow as a perimeter defender, but he’s already got the evidence of his strong rim protection. Sure, a little muscle and conditioning will help him, but there’s enough for NBA teams to see in the first few games of the season to offer a vision where Maluach is one of the most intimidating seven-footers on the planet.
Perimeter Defense: Better Not Tell You Now
Interior Defense: It is Certain
Team Tasseography
After choosing to play for Duke, Khaman Maluach was always in a high-pressure situation with the spotlight firmly on his back. The Blue Devils have had thirteen players drafted in the past five drafts, albeit with only two lottery picks, but look primed to have two more joining them with Maluach and Cooper Flagg. Add the returning players like Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster, and there’s good reason this Duke team was favored in the preseason.
This Duke team has had a rougher start than many imagined, but that’s as much a credit to the schedule they’re faced with as the growing pains any reformed roster suffers. With ten new faces on the team, it would’ve been a shock if the team immediately meshed into a juggernaut. Losing to good Kentucky and Kansas teams shouldn’t obscure the win over a solid Arizona squad.
None of this is to say that Duke has been a bad team. Far from it. Per BartTorvik, the Blue Devils rank 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency and 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’ve been a force on both ends of the floor. That’s partially due to Maluach, but more than that comes from the talented, experienced backcourt and the freshman force known as Cooper Flagg.
Yes, this article is about Khaman Maluach, but you can’t talk about Duke without talking about Flagg. He’s the top prospect in the country for a reason and would’ve been last year by a few country miles. He’s been a better player on both ends than Maluach, but that’s not a surprise. Arguably, what’s helped Maluach more is the lack of a difficult spotlight on him due to Flagg’s presence. Had he played on another team and only averaged about twenty minutes a game, Malauch certainly would’ve received more scrutiny by now.
Alternatively, maybe Malauch would’ve looked like he did while playing for City Oilers in the BAL. In a similar sample size to now, Maluach put up 17.3 points a game, shot 59.7% on twos, hit 72.4% of his 4.8 free throws per game, snared 13.0 rebounds, and swatted 2.8 shots per contest. He was featured on an admittedly mediocre team, but one that showed off just what he could do if given a longer leash than he has with Jon Scheyer.
It’ll take a few years for this version of Maluach to develop if he gets drafted to the right situation, but there’s no chance he’ll have the space to do so at Duke. He’s confined to the rim running role that he’s good at, which offers the best outcome for Duke itself and should lead to them getting a few more marquee wins once every piece gels a bit better.
Still, Maluach will only get to work on a fraction of his game this year. That’s still more than Isaiah Evans, Darren Harris, and Pat Ngongba have had this year, as none have seen as many opportunities as Maluach has. That’s due to role and need, but it also shows that Maluach is maybe more pro-ready than he appeared in the offseason. He’ll surely grow into a different player once drafted, but that depends on what his team wants him to do in his rookie year and beyond.
The Final Shake
Even with only a few morsels of play to go off of, I’m of the strong opinion that Khaman Maluach is worthy of a lottery selection even in this year’s top-heavy draft. He’s had fewer chances to show his stuff than even the other freshman on his team, but in those limited chances, Mluach has flexed serious two-way potential that teams should covet come draft night.
At worst, Maluach is an athletic screener, finisher, and shot-blocker. He does all the things you want out of a seven-footer and still has room to grow to sharpen these skills. If he pans out with a shallower ceiling than expected, he’d still slot in safely as a long-term starting center for a team looking for stable scoring and rim protection in the middle.
That’s a fine future, but isn’t the only one that Maluach could have. If he’s given the room to try and fail as a perimeter player, there are more interesting and impactful player archetypes that he could become. He wouldn’t even have to give up what makes him so special and unique, instead becoming more like the unicorn big men that NBA teams are still obsessed with finding.
It’s only off of a few morsels, but I see the more exciting futures for Maluach clearer than they may appear. He won’t show it off at Duke more than a few times a game, like when he snipes an odd three-pointer or moves too quickly to believe between screens. But whether he’s expanding his game or playing his role closer to perfection, Khaman Maluach is a must-watch player in this year’s draft class.