Magic 8 Ballers: The Poplar Vote
It's been a stormy year for the Miami Hurricanes, but given Wooga Poplar's rise as a draft prospect, how much has been because or in spite of his play?
With the conference slate in full swing in college basketball, it’s time to see which hot starts were a clever illusion and which were made of magic. It’s one thing to juice your stats against a weaker non-conference slate; to do the same on the road against a ranked team is a much more useful data point for evaluating a prospect.
An underrated element to consider during conference play is evaluating a returning player and who they do year-over-year. Often, the conference slate dulls a prospect’s shine in the eyes of evaluators. If a young gun comes back and lights up their respective conference the next year, that should matter just as much as if a player returns and lays an egg against their rivals.
Those players who elevate their games often find their stars illuminated alongside their team’s win column. Players like Tristen Newton, Trey Alexander, and Zach Edey have all seen their draft stocks rise to different degrees that wouldn’t have been possible without winning. As their play has improved, so has their team’s.
So what do we do with a player who’s made some clear strides in their game but has seen their team start to tumble? How real are the apparent improvements? Are they smoke and mirrors? Or have tangible changes been made that have changed his future career complexion?
By peering into the Magic 8 Ball at Wooga Poplar and the Miami Hurricanes, we’re about to find out.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
Wooga Poplar’s been a mainstay on arguably the best Miami team in program history. After joining the Hurricanes as a low four-star recruit, Poplar has worked his way up from being a freshman who didn’t play more than ten minutes a game to become the third-leading scorer on the Hurricanes.
It’s a testament to Poplar’s hard work and tenacity that he’s built himself into a completely different player over the past three years. This year, in 16 games for Miami, Poplar’s putting up 15.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 0.9 steals per game while shooting 50.0% from two and a scalding 46.1% from three. He’s improved almost every one of his counting stats without sacrificing his efficiency, which is rare for a prospect to pull off.
Most of Poplar’s appeal comes from his traditional-yet-trendy archetype as a player. He’s got good size as a shooting guard, genuinely puts the “shooting” in shooting guard with his sniping capabilities, and is a rock-solid perimeter defender. Add in his leaping abilities, which are top-notch, and it’s easy to see why Poplar’s long been considered a potential breakout candidate.
Despite his rising stardom for Miami, the Hurricanes and Poplar have recently hit stormy weather. He’s been hampered by an ankle injury and is averaging fewer of everything in conference play, while the team has lost four of their last five games, all to ACC opponents.
Neither of these events in a vacuum would be enough to dampen the stellar start that Poplar sprinted out to this year. Still, in concert, they both present a worthy investigation into how much he’s improved. If the Hurricanes aren’t winning as much as they did when Poplar was a bit piece, what does it say about his draft stock if he can’t carry them to wins when he’s seemingly better than ever?
To find out, it’s time to delve into all facets of Poplar’s profile and game and figure out what makes him the prospect that every team in the NBA could use on their roster.
Occult Offense
When evaluating Wooga Poplar’s offense, a lot jumps out on film. Often, it’s Poplar himself who jumps out, given he’s the best vertical athlete on the Hurricanes team. He brings a fluid mix of quick side shuffles, bursts on drives, and vertical acrobatics that already look like they belong on an NBA roster.
There are few other players in college basketball right now who are as effortless of leapers as Poplar is. He easily glides around the floor and gets great elevation on his jumper. But really, what’s so important about his offense is that he can throw down some dirty dunks off of what looks like little effort.
It’d be great to see more dunks out of Poplar, as he’s only slammed it six times this year, but his athleticism lends itself to early optimism in his offense. It’s not hard to imagine Poplar denting rims with his detonations once he gets to the NBA, whether on back cuts or lobs in transition.
Right now, as a transition player, Poplar is already highly effective. Per Synergy, he’s rated as “Excellent” in transition scoring opportunities and is shooting a scintillating 79.5% True Shooting on all of his fast break plays. It’s the bare minimum as a real prospect to be good in transition, but Poplar shows no fear when driving to the basket and floats past or through defenders on his lay-ups.
In a straight line, few players can stay in front of Poplar. He doesn’t have an elite handle or remarkable shake, but with his athletic profile, it doesn’t matter. With a head of steam going towards the rim, Poplar is too quick, strong, and springy to stop. That also extends to the halfcourt setting, as his attacks off closeouts are similarly deadly to his transition drives.
Poplar’s finishing package is a smooth composite of vertical artistry, clever angle work, and a strong core. Per Synergy, Poplar’s a great finisher around the rim, as he’s shooting 64.7% at the cup this year. That’s an elite number that, given his slashing package, should be one of Poplar’s premium tools at the next level.
However, it won’t be his go-to as the shooting is the most appealing aspect of Poplar’s profile outside his athleticism. You wouldn’t have guessed it from his freshman year, where he shot 21.4% on 0.8 attempts from deep a game. However, his past two years have been sterling shooting sample sets, as he’s shot 37.5% on 2.8 attempts as a sophomore and 46.2% on 5.4 attempts this year.
By both metrics and tape, Poplar’s an elite shooting prospect. It’s easy to believe in the validity of his shooting when he’s shot over 85.0% from the free-throw line in the past two seasons, too. Poplar’s taken 66 spot-up threes already this year and has hit 45.5% of them. That mark, with that volume and accuracy, allows him to bend defenses to his whim with his gravity.
However, Poplar’s long-range prosperity isn’t limited to his stationary shooting. He maintains great balance in transition and can stop on a dime to bomb from deep while keeping his feet under him on relocation threes. Poplar’s even started to improve in his dribble jumpers from deep, hitting 48.0% of his 25 attempts from deep.
As one of the better shooters in this draft class, Poplar has one of the higher floor values as a guard. NBA teams can never have enough shooters and even mediocre athletes with shoulder-mounted flamethrowers get drafted. When you bake in Poplar’s athletic capabilities, it’s hard to imagine a team not selling themselves on a shooting guard who can snipe and slam with equal lethality.
If all Poplar is at the next level is a highly efficient shooter and finisher, that’s almost already worthy of a first-round pick in 2024. Of course, no prospect is done developing in college, but it’s safer to evaluate Poplar’s offense than assume he’s on track to make a major leap in another area in the NBA.
As a ball-handler and passer, Poplar is lacking. He’s only averaging 2.3 assists to 2.4 turnovers, doubling his turnover average from last year. It’s not his role at Miami to be a facilitator, but Poplar can still sling a solid pass repeatedly in transition or to a cutter.
More often, however, Poplar is a finisher, not an initiator. He can be a bit lazy with his passes, doesn’t see more advanced angles, and doesn’t have the verve or pizzazz to pull defenders with his passing.
His ball-handling is similarly average, as he has the core strength to be a good ball-handler but not the results. It’s a problem for Poplar when he’s driving against a tougher perimeter defender, as he often loses the ball. At the next level, Poplar will have to get more careful with the ball to have the same effect as a slasher.
With these deficiencies, I won’t mince words: there probably isn’t a universe where Wooga Poplar develops into a star. However, Given how few players become stars in the NBA, this shouldn’t be a knock on him as a prospect overall.
Instead, Poplar looks like one of the safest role-player bets on offense in the draft. He has the exact skillsets NBA teams crave, his athleticism is functional in transition, and he does just enough outside of his shooting and finishing to round out his offensive arsenal. Unlike many players in the 2024 class, you could put Poplar on an NBA court tomorrow, and he would carve out a solid role for himself.
Inside Scoring Package: As I See It, Yes
Outside Scoring Package: It is Certain
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: Don’t Count on It
Defensive Divination
Although Poplar’s a great athlete, that’s hardly been a good indicator of being a good defender. Many players before him with similar athleticism have focused solely on the offensive end to the detriment of their defense. But these players are often tasked with a much higher usage than Poplar is at Miami.
With a more streamlined role for the Hurricanes, Poplar happily fits in as a plus wing defender. He’s got the requisite size to match up with guards and small wings while also packing a lot of strength in his core and lower body. It’s hard to move Poplar with force, much less skirt around him and his long reach on the perimeter.
Currently, Poplar projects better as an individual defender than a team defender. That’s not to say he can’t be a key cog in a steel trap of defense; it’s more that he does better as an on-ball maven than a roving, cerebral free safety.
Across his three seasons of college basketball, Poplar has had steal percentages of 1.8%, 2.8%, and 1.5%, none of which are high bars. When factoring that his steals have gone down, no one should expect him to be a turnover-generating machine at this or the next level.
Still, he has a peculiar knack for getting his hands in the cookie jar as an off-ball defender. It’s not always the best idea to slap down at the ball on a drive, but Poplar’s mastered the art of poking the ball away.
Similar to his steals, although it isn’t a strong suit of his game, Poplar has a peculiar affinity for a specific subset of blocks. He has the raw length and reflexes to contest shots from deep and reject them.
Overall, Poplar has many physical tools that make up talented perimeter defenders. It’s fair to wonder if he can get there, given he’ll have less of a primary offensive load in the NBA.
Poplar hasn’t shown the potential to be a stopper on tape, but he does have the chops to be a solid perimeter defender at the next level. For that reason, although the term is thrown around, Poplar fits into the rare classification of “3-and-D” that teams covet.
Perimeter Defense: Cannot Predict Now
Interior Defense: Outlook Not So Good
Team Tasseography
In some ways, Poplar’s season has been a rollercoaster due to the quiet turmoil of the Hurricanes. It hasn’t been a disaster for either him or the team, but something feels just a bit off about his season and the team’s.
Miami came into the season after its first-ever Final Four appearance with higher expectations than usual. The team returned veteran leaders like Poplar, Nijel Pack, and Norchad Omier while bringing in Matthew Cleveland from FSU and snagging a diamond-in-the-rough recruit in Kyshawn George.
It’s hard to dispute that Miami has an immensely talented college roster full of potential NBA talent. Poplar and Cleveland are safe bets on most top-60 draft boards (including in my top 30), while Kyshawn George has made a strong push on some and could burst into first-round consideration with a strong close to the season.
Despite all of this, the Hurricanes are struggling. They’re only 4-4 in ACC play and have already dropped games to Syracuse, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Louisville. Sure, the Orange and Demon Deacons are respectable opponents, but losses to this year’s Seminoles and Cardinals teams are shock losses that should worry the team in the long run.
Combined with the early blowout losses to Kentucky and Colorado, it’s hard to see how Miami has justified its preseason hype. All they have to hang their hat on is a win at home against Clemson, which is impressive but pales compared to their growing pile of head-scratching losses.
Poplar is part of Miami’s problems but could also be part of the solutions. He was dynamic against the weaker non-conference slate, dropping over 20 points four times before ACC play. Since conference play started, however, Poplar’s only averaging 10.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 2.0 turnovers on just 41.7% from two and 37.1% from three.
It’s not all Poplar’s fault that the Hurricanes are struggling. He’s had to work back from an ankle sprain, which has hampered his play and kept him out against Clemson and Wake Forest. The team also has a bit of stink from their talented parts, as they aren’t better than the sum of their parts.
For Miami to reach the same heights as last season, they must establish a hierarchy on their team. Poplar should be near the top of that moving forward, although even his 10.6 shots per game might be lower than necessary. How much better, for example, might Miami be if they got fewer shots from Benley Joseph and Nijel Pack and spread those to Poplar?
It’s not assured that they’d win, but it’s worth considering how disjointed and odd Poplar’s team context is this year. He’s a star, but not the team’s North Star. He’s simultaneously a bit underrated and overrated, yet he could use more shots in the offense.
If that doesn’t make sense, neither does Miami as a team nor Poplar as a prospect. Both are talented, yet you could argue that both have left a bit in the tank. That makes the rest of ACC play, for both Poplar and the ‘Canes, the most important basketball of the whole season.
The Final Shake
Leave it to a draft class already befuddling as 2024 to include a prospect like Wooga Poplar. He’s simultaneously one of the best shooters in the draft and a curious figurehead for an underachieving team. While team success doesn’t dictate how high a prospect should go, it is a data point that teams will consider on whether he can be a winning basketball player.
As I see it, Poplar’s succeeded despite some uneven shakes. He’s shrugged off injury, odd team dynamics, and weighty expectations to take a massive leap in his game. His appeal is no longer theoretical; Poplar is a bona fide draft prospect who could improve as the season progresses.
It’s been a common refrain for me as I’ve evaluated this year’s draft class, but a player’s floor matters more than ever. There are dozens of players with high ceilings, but those who can contribute, even if they don’t hit their ceiling, should be vaulting up draft boards, given the general uncertainty in the air.
Despite his team’s warts, Poplar’s skillset has shone throughout the year. Come June, there will likely be several teams in the first round that could use another movement shooter with defensive chops and dynamite hops. When they come calling, expect Poplar to pick up the phone and start playing minutes right away at the next level.