Matt Cross, Natural Born Killer | The Prospect Overview
Southern Methodist forward Matt Cross has been overlooked for too long. Maxwell goes in-depth on one of his favorite sleepers in the 2025 NBA Draft. PLUS: Quick Hits across the draft world!
In 2005, the sport of mixed martial arts exploded in popularity. The UFC’s reality show The Ultimate Fighter was a huge success. It was a weekly program that aired on Spike TV where a group of fighters, well, fought, in order to secure a six-figure UFC contract. While the series featured a format that was typical for its time, with a bunch of contestants living in a house together, the finale was a more standard UFC live event, taking place in an arena. The first season’s finale was headlined by Ken Shamrock, one of the sport’s biggest sports at the time. While Shamrock rose to prominence in MMA, he’d also briefly crossed over into professional wrestling, including a successful run in the WWE (then WWF). Given that The Ultimate Fighter aired on SpikeTV, which also carried WWE’s Monday Night Raw program, he was a no-brainer. He took on Rich Franklin, a rising star in the sport. Meanwhile, The Ultimate Fighter reality show contestants would go at it the other two bouts on the main card. And while Shamrock brought in a large audience, that audience would stick around going forward because of one of those fights between reality show contestants. Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonner went to war in a bout still considered one of the UFC’s greatest fights to this day. For three straight rounds, the two ceaselessly traded bombs with one another.
Griffin won the decision, but the real winner was the UFC. The promotion, which had briefly been on the brink of extinction a few years prior, had now cultivated a new fan base. It was the perfect storm—the peak of reality television, a former pro wrestler in a headlining spot on a network where pro wrestling drew giant ratings, and one of the greatest fights of all time. I was one of the new fans that the UFC made during that era. I was more of a casual, but I eventually got more and more into the sport. By the time 2009 rolled around, I’d be hitting a sports bar with my buddies for every UFC pay-per-view event.
One of my favorite fighters during that era was Carlos Condit. The first thing that drew me was his backstory. His father, Brian, was the Chief of Staff for Bill Richardson, a former congressman, governor, and Presidential candidate. He could have followed in those footsteps and gone into politics or whatever, but instead, he chose violence. And violence was the name of the game for Condit. During that time, the top welterweights were more control-oriented wrestlers such as Georges St. Pierre, Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. Condit was the opposite. He was propelled by excellent cardio and a relentless aggressive streak. Condit was trying to hurt you all the time. If he was striking, he was looking to kill. When he got a takedown, he would pound out opponents while hunting for submissions. If he got taken down, he would still throw strikes from the bottom. By the time he got to the UFC, he’d amassed a 23-4 record, with only one of his fights going to a decision. This non-stop, brutal, and exhausting style earned him the nickname “The Natural Born Killer.”
My favorite Condit performance came against Rory McDonald, who was something of a golden boy for the UFC during that era. MacDonald entered the bout at 20 years of age, and he was being heralded as the future of the sport. He’d put together a 10-0 record, with none of his fights going the distance. Additionally, the fact that he trained out of the same gym as reigning champion Georges St. Pierre gave him an additional level of credibility. When they were matched up, the intention was clear—to give MacDonald a scalp over a good, mid-level contender. And for two rounds, MacDonald looked the part. He completely controlled the fight. However, Condit’s relentless pace was wearing on him. Before the third round and final started, Condit stood up from his stool full of vigor. Across the octagon, MacDonald was wheezing, looking like he’d just seen a ghost. Late in the round, Condit stuffed a takedown, got on top, and pounded away on MacDonald. The referee dove in to stop the fight, giving Condit the come-from-behind TKO win with only seven seconds to spare. That fight was Carlos Condit in a nutshell. He would never give up, he would never go away, and his frenetic style made him a persistent threat to opponents.
I see a lot of “The Natural Born Killer” in SMU wing prospect Matt Cross.
Background
Matt Cross was a big deal coming out of high school. The 6’7” wing ranked 90th in the RSCI rankings for the 2020 high school class, and he received offers from a slew of high-major programs. He committed to Miami, where his college career got off to a rocky start. Through 12 games, Cross was looking solid. He didn’t have a huge role, but he was contributing in a variety of ways and hitting 40% of his threes. In his next two games, Cross struggled. Then, he was met with a DNP-CD vs. Florida State. He was subsequently dismissed from the team. Here’s what Miami Coach Jim Larranaga said at the time:
“I think and I believed Matt used this expression, sometimes when you recruit someone who has a lot of qualities you’re looking for and then they arrive on campus and things are going pretty well and you’re really heading in the right direction and then for one reason or another, it just got to the point where I felt like he probably needed to make a change. I was probably just not the right coach for him. I have own my way of doing things and I think you've got to kind of buy into that, that approach, and if you don’t then it probably makes you unhappy that you don't feel like it's an ideal fit. So I just came to the conclusion the best thing would be for him to find some place that he would be happier at.”
Cross issued a statement wishing his teammates well, and he noted that he was excited to see what was next, whether it be in basketball or football. Thankfully for us, Cross stuck with basketball. But sometimes, things get worse before they get better. Cross landed at Louisville just in time for the bizarre Chris Mack/Dino Gaudio extortion scandal. Things weren’t any better on the court, as the Cardinals were a total mess that season. Cross struggled with his efficiency, scoring 5.8 PPG on 38.4/28.4/69.4 splits. Given the program’s uncertainty, Cross would hit the portal once more, this time enrolling at UMass. There, it finally started to click. As a junior, Cross put together his best and most productive season. During his senior campaign, Cross led the Minutemen in BPM as they accrued 20 wins for the first time in a decade. Following the conclusion of the season, Matt Cross entered the transfer portal one last time. He would join a Southern Methodist squad looking to bolster their roster in preparation for a move to the ACC.
Offense
When I cover a non-big prospect, I typically start out by talking about their shooting. And I promise, we’ll get there. But so much of what makes Matt Cross interesting has to do with how he plays around the basket. For starters, he’s a reliable finisher. Between this year and last, Cross has converted 60.3% of his halfcourt rim attempts, which is a rock-solid number for a forward prospect. He’s a good spot-up driver who relishes contact downhill (which is why he has a fantastic .449 FTr between this year and last). At 230 pounds, Cross controls his line well and is able to keep his touch when met with physicality inside. He’s also got a bit of a funky counter game to further aid him in creating advantages downhill. Off the ball, Cross is an adept cutter with a great sense of urgency.
That’s all well and good. But what makes Matt Cross a bit more unique is his talent as a crasher on the offensive glass. His 9.9 ORB% over the past two seasons is an elite mark. He’ll fly in from the perimeter before soaring in to feast on the boards. If he misses a shot inside, he’ll quickly elevate with an effortless second jump before getting an easy second chance opportunity. If opponents don’t account for Cross and make sure to put a body on him, he will make them pay. Nearly three times per game, Cross is going to generate an additional possession for his team. It’s this type of high-motor hustle play that wears on opponents. His tenacity on the glass is a true differentiator that shouldn’t go overlooked when comparing him to other prospects on the margins.
Cross isn’t just an effort guy, though. He’s skilled. He showcases a real level of comfortability putting the ball on the deck and creating for his teammates. He keeps his eyes up on the go, allowing him to read the floor and react to incoming help. He’s able to deliver on the money passes even when he’s on the move. His 19.6 AST% last year was a stellar mark for a forward. Plus, I’m optimistic about Cross’s ability to scale down in role. While he can isolate, break his man down, and find an opening at the college level, that won’t be his role in the pros. He’s older and he’s not super bursty or polished as a creator. What he will be tasked with is making quick, correct decisions. He’s shown that he can do that. He’s a selfless and sharp “next one” passer who understands the importance of ball movement and—even more importantly—the perils of stopping the ball. Cross keeps his team’s offense flowing and rarely brings it to a halt once they have the defense rotating. His 2.7-to-2.1 A:TO over the past two years shows that more often than not, he can make the right call. As his role simplifies, I believe that will continue to be the case.
Alright, now let’s talk shooting. He’s pretty good at it. He’s not great, but he’s not atrocious, either. Over the past three seasons, Cross has made 35.1% of his threes on 5.9 attempts per 100 possessions. Relative to forwards who went on to stick in the NBA, that’s about as close to middle-of-the-pack as you can get from both a volume and efficiency standpoint. I’d say I’m more optimistic than not about this scaling up. Cross’s role at UMass led to him having to take tougher threes fairly frequently. He’s shown that he can hit deep ones from NBA range. I also like how Cross goes about his business in getting his threes. He knows how to relocate into open spots on the floor, maximizing his openings while giving his teammates a clear passing lane. A solid shooting resume paired with savvy instincts might not be the most exciting thing in the world, but it’s a good foundation. Additionally, Cross’s knack for impacting the game in a variety of ways gives him a path to stick around the NBA even if he’s more of an average shooter.
Defense
My favorite thing about Matt Cross’s defense is how well he guards the ball. You really see his 230-pound frame on display here. While Cross is light enough on his feet to move with smaller players, he also likes to use his chest to make opponents uncomfortable. He’ll routinely swallow up opponents before stuffing them on drives (career 2.0 BLK%). In the clips above, he even does it to Mississippi State’s Cameron Matthews, one of the more physically developed players you can find at the college level. But even when he doesn’t get that end result, Cross often forces opponents into tough mid-range shots because he’s so difficult to create an advantage against. The dude is strong. In totality, he’s a master of staying in front with the tools to carry that over to the next level.
Cross is an active, engaged off-ball player, too. Again, the hustle is on display here. He’ll bust his tail in transition. He works hard to get where he needs to go rotationally. Cross thrives on the glass on this end, too. His 21.8 DRB% over these past two seasons matches the likes of Jaime Jaquez and Kenrich Williams, the types of guys he’ll need to play like at the next level. Cross has a career 2.5 STL%, which also grades out well. While Cross can read a passing lane or get into a ballhandler’s dribble, his steals are often a product of his overall attentiveness and motor. He’s always ready to pounce and dive for a 50/50 ball. These winning plays in gray areas can make all the difference in a tight game.
Conclusion
Even in the transfer portal era, teams are going to dig into Matt Cross playing at four different schools. Additionally, the fact that he nearly walked away from the sport after his freshman season will likely raise “does he really love basketball?” questions. I’d reject that premise entirely. Watch the dude play. Every time I do, there’s one guy who is competing like it’s life or death every trip down the court, and it’s Matt Cross. His relentless motor, unflinching aggression, and willingness to take his lumps are why he reminds me so much of a former MMA fighter in Carlos Condit. If you’d counted him out after Miami, or his bad season at Louisville, you’d currently find yourself regretting it. If anything, he’s proven that he loves the game so much that even after getting punched hard in the mouth, he continued to pursue it and get better.
The whole purpose of NBA Draft scouting goes beyond that. None of those questions would even matter if he wasn’t a good enough basketball player. The point of this exercise, ultimately, is to find NBA talent. When digging into guys outside of mainstream Top 100s and Mock Drafts, that becomes increasingly difficult. But Matt Cross is a guy I wouldn’t count out. He’s proven himself to be a solid shooter, smart decision-maker, great rebound, fantastic competitor, and versatile defender. At 6’7” and 230 pounds, that’s a bet I’m happy to make. He’s good at all of the things teams primarily ask for out of role players, he has pro size, and he’s going to play with an edge few can match. He’s a high competence player who will make life uncomfortable for opponents at every turn, while rarely being uncomfortable himself. At this stage in the process, Cross is a player that I’d love in that two-way range of the board. Where his shot settles in throughout the year will determine whether he moves up or down from there. But the bottom line is that Matt Cross deserves more NBA Draft buzz than he’s been given. The man is a natural born killer.
Quick Hits
-Dink Pate’s 26-point outing during the G League Showcase helped re-ignite (pun fully intended) his draft buzz. The 6’8” 18-year-old has made great strides as a shooter in his second G League season, sitting at 38.2% from distance on the year. He has some real shot-maker stuff from deep and can convert even without ideal balance. He’s made strides on defense, too. He covers ground well, his engagement has improved, and he’s in the right spots on a more consistent basis. Pate can still be turnover-prone (1.6 APG to 1.9 TOV), and he’s still struggling to find efficiency when chased off the line (34.3% on pull-up twos and a dismal 29.2% at the rim in the halfcourt per Synergy). Still, Pate doesn’t turn 19 until March. If his shot holds steady, his tools, playmaking flashes, and defensive potential will remain tantalizing to front offices.
-Florida Atlantic forward Baba Miller slowly slid off radars after disappointing during his first two college seasons. But if you haven’t watched him recently, I’d encourage you to check back in on the 6’10” junior. Miller still has an inconsistent release and takes some frustrating shots, but his decision-making process as a whole has improved considerably. His 15.7 AST% is a career-high, as is his 2.7-to-2.1 assist-to-turnover mark. He’s also shooting and making more threes than ever before. Defensively, his length makes him difficult to get around and he brings excellent ground coverage to the table. Given that his wiry frame likely takes a small-ball five frame off the table, these leaps in shooting and playmaking have been welcomed developments. If the draft were tomorrow, I think a second-round flier would be more than warranted.
-Nebraska’s Brice Williams had himself a great Diamond Head Classic, leading the Cornhuskers to victory. The 6’7” graduate averaged 22.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 0.3 BPG during the tournament. A funky, smooth operator, Williams can create for himself and score at all three levels. He’s also started to get the hang of organizing a high-major offense for the first time (career-high 28.6 USG%), and he’s reduced his turnovers in recent outings. Defensively, he has some nice moments smothering the ball. He’s not the most athletic player, but his well-rounded production and feel should have him the G League Elite Camp/high-end Portsmouth mix.
-Speaking of the Huskers, I still have a few shares of Berke Buyunktuncel stock! The 6’9” sophomore came to college with a strong reputation in international play, but he stumbled out of the gate as a freshman at UCLA. Buyunktuncel has continued to struggle from deep (30.4% on 2.4 attempts per game), which will need to be addressed in the long run. With that said, I’m digging everything else. He uses his bulky frame to control the glass and bump drivers off their line. I quite like Oregon State’s Michael Rataj, but Buyunktuncel prevented him from getting to his spots consistently during their matchup. He was instrumental in holding Rataj to six points on 2-9 shooting. Buyunktuncel has great rotational instincts, too, helping him to post monster playmaking numbers (3.1 STL%, 4.4 BLK%). He’s a sharp ball mover on offense and a strong finisher. Again, consistency from deep is a must, and he has to work to maximize his athleticism. But I wouldn’t count him out. He’s been off the draft radar, but he’s showing a lot of valuable skills.
-The other name I was monitoring throughout the Diamond Head Classic was Charleston’s Ante Brzovic. The 6’10” big man has been stuffing the stat sheet all year, posting 19.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 BPG, and 0.8 SPG. He’s a skilled center with soft touch. He can hit baby hooks with either hand inside. Brzovic can also operate from the top of the key thanks to his smooth stroke (42.3% from three) and sublime pass placement. Defensively, I’m still uncertain as to where he fits in the NBA. He’s heavy-footed closing out, not quite switchable, and not bouncy enough to reliably protect the rim. He’ll have to prove he can find a spot as an offensively-tilted big man during the pre-draft process. But I’d be pretty surprised if his overall production doesn’t get him a Portsmouth invite.
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