Memphis Grizzlies 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview
Rowan and Stephen take an in-depth look at one of the more fascinating teams in the late lottery in the Memphis Grizzlies.
Rowan: No matter how hard analysts try, there’s always a team slotted to make the playoffs that thunks down into the dregs of the lottery. This year, that team was the Memphis Grizzlies. After three straight years in the playoffs behind the savvy coaching of Taylor Jenkins and the superstar play of Ja Morant, the Grizzlies couldn’t overcome a monumental clash with the injury bug and missed out on the playoffs entirely.
There are many reasons behind their fall from the upper echelon of the Western Conference. It starts with injuries, as the team set several ignominious records for time lost. Memphis set the record for most players used in a season at 33, most starting lineup combinations at 51, and most total games lost to injury at a whopping 578 this season. Season-ending injuries to Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Marcus Smart hurt immensely, alongside Desmond Bane missing two months to an ankle sprain. The team’s defense, which had ranked third and sixth in Defensive Rating in the past two years, slipped to 12th this season, but their moribund 30th-ranked Offensive Rating spelled doom for the team.
Some silver linings for the chaotic season were some unexpected players stepping into new roles for Memphis. Desmond Bane flexed his scoring muscles for the year’s first half and garnered All-Star buzz. Vince Williams Jr., who was selected 47th in the 2022 NBA Draft, stepped into a starting role and looked like a future wing staple for the team. Also, to varying degrees, GG Jackson, Trey Jemison, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Jake LaRavia developed their games enough to stake their claims on future Grizzlies rosters.
Unlike most teams drafting in the lottery, Memphis isn’t planning on being here long. Their aspirations are instead the top of the Western Conference, as the returns of Morant and Smart should send this squad careening toward the top of the standings, especially with an improved cadre of players behind him. That makes the #9 overall pick one geared more toward an immediate impact player who can fill a position of need and succeed right away.
Stephen, when looking at this team, what stood out about their season to you? What types of players or archetypes do you think they’ll target at the back end of the lottery?
Stephen: Great breakdown, Rowan. The season was a disappointment for anyone that isn’t a draft sicko or a fan of player development across the board. The good news is that Memphis is a team that understands the importance of the draft. They obviously added some major free agents, but the majority of their team has been developed organically. With a team that has talent at so many positions, giving them the ninth pick in this draft is just what the doctor ordered. They obviously have a few “needs” that they need to address, but I am not a big fan of teams–especially for teams that could be in the playoffs–drafting for their needs in this draft. Go with the player that you are confident in; go with the player that can provide some depth–that you believe fits your system.
The archetype consideration is an interesting one. They obviously have a lot of faith in Ja at the point and as their star player. They have their perpetual Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is a great complementary player on the wing on both sides of the floor. The growth of GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. gives the team some depth and unique skills along the front court. Really, the only “need” they could address that could, theoretically, send them over the top, is the center position.
We’ve seen how the Grizzlies can thrive with a strong five, as they did with Steven Adams, but they moved him this past season. Naturally, Memphis could benefit tremendously if they could bring in a player who can do some of the things Adams could do. More pointedly, if Ja is able to have someone screen and dive to the rim, we could see the Ja that rose to the top of the league.
The only problem, Rowan, is that there doesn’t seem to be a player that projects to either:
Be a Top 10 center within this class that will be at #9.
Won’t be considered a reach if Memphis takes a big at #9.
With that, who do you feel like Memphis should target with this pick, Rowan?
Rowan: That’s an important point when considering what Memphis might be looking for relative to which players may be available. In our most recent No Ceilings Big Board, both Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan are slotted in the Top 3 of this class, which means unless the Grizzlies push their chips in and ascend in the lottery rungs, they’ll be drafting a player who doesn’t fit what they need this season.
When I think about what Memphis should do at #9, a few different possibilities come to mind. The first is to eschew the collective worries over rankings and snag a big man who can play next to Jaren Jackson Jr. Even though it may be a reach, the chance to lock down that part of the starting lineup with a cost-controlled player for the next five years is the move that Memphis needs to start making to keep their window of contention wedged open.
The first player that comes to mind, despite it being a “reach,” would be Zach Edey. Edey just finished up a stellar pair of seasons as the undisputed best player in college basketball and, after making improvements to his conditioning and finesse game, has planted himself firmly in first-round discussions. While fans who don’t watch a ton of Memphis games may wonder why the team would put a massive man next to JJJ, the times where Jackson Jr. has been best (and most available foul-wise) for the Grizzlies is when paired with another big man.
Edey averaged 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 2.0 assists, and just 1.9 fouls per contest as a senior this year at Purdue, which bodes well for what he could do in Memphis. He wouldn’t get the same offensive touches, but a massive 7’4”, 299-pound finisher and rim protector who is light on his feet while having enough beef to bang around with centers is exactly what the Grizzlies would like to find in their frontcourt, even if it is a bit of a “reach” by most boards.
The other option could be Kyle Filipowski out of Duke. Although his name is less en-vogue than other players in the cycle, it’s hard to argue with what he’s done so far in his short tenure as a Blue Devil. As a sophomore, Filipowski improved upon his scoring, play-making, shot-blocking, and efficiency from all areas of the court, an impressive feat that would slot in perfectly next to Jaren Jackson Jr. Although he might not bring as much heft, Flip is still about 7’0” in shoes and 220 pounds, which could fit as a stretch center in the NBA.
The second idea is to eschew their team's needs and draft either the best player available or a specialized prospect who can play a defined role on their team from the first game of the season. With so much of the roster for the Grizzlies already fleshed out, the team can be picky about what they want out of this draft.
If the team goes this route, I could see them either targeting an offensive dynamo or a defensive menace. The team could use a bit more depth on the wing, so some 2/3 hybrid player would fill a long-term hole for the team and have the best chance of playing immediate minutes. That said, I could see either Dalton Knecht or Devin Carter as the choice if Memphis chooses to snag a specific role player.
Knecht took his talents from Greeley, Colorado, to Knoxville, Tennessee, and showed no signs of slowing down despite the jump in difficulty. Knecht had an eerily similar stat profile at Northern Colorado as he did at Tennessee, most importantly still topping 20 points per contest and sniping at a 39.7% clip from deep on 6.5 attempts in the SEC.
The Grizzlies could definitely use another designated shooter in their lineups despite the presence of Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard. While the Grizzlies took the sixth-most three-pointers per game this season, at 37.8 per game, they were just 29th in three-point percentage. Knecht would give them minutes right away, stretching defenses and opening up the floor more for Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and JJJ to work on offense.
If the Grizzlies are looking for more of a defensive weapon to deploy alongside Marcus Smart, they could do much worse than Devin Carter. The Providence star took off in his second season with the Friars, taking the team’s reins after an unfortunate injury to Bryce Hopkins. Carter shot 37.7% on 6.8 attempts from three, which is a noteworthy figure, but it was his work on defense that made him stand out this year.
Carter is an overzealous defender who rarely is caught out of position against other players. He gets into his stance well, moves his feet freely, and doesn’t get caught up on screens. Carter was also a defensive playmaker, with a 2.9% steal percentage and 2.8% block percentage as a roughly 6’4” guard. That sort of all-around defensive dominance is exactly what Memphis could target to pair with their offensively gifted backcourt.
Stephen, which route do you think is more likely for the Grizzlies to take as a team? Do you think any of these guys have a shot at cracking an already deep rotation for a team that wants to contend? Or could some other names make sense for the odd position that Memphis finds itself in this year?
Stephen: I’ve spoken to this idea a few times leading up to this day but if you’re a team that truly–like truly–feels you’re close to contention, do not trick yourself into drafting a solution to your needs. Address those concerns via free agency or trade. For Memphis, I think they fall into this category. I love the names you brought to the table.
Knecht seems like a good fit for any team, let alone the Grizzlies. Floor spacing is always a good thing, and I think that Memphis could stand to get a little deeper on the wing. Dalton showed a lot more to his scoring profile than just shooting. I loved how Tennessee was able to get him involved with the ball in his hand–beating the defense going downhill and off of the dribble. The Devin Carter pick seems like a good cultural (sorry, Miami fans) move. His dad, Anthony Carter, is on the coaching staff. We’ve also seen Memphis have success with a three guard rotation when they were thought to be the next young team on the rise.
One player who has his stock all over the place that could make some sense is Ron Holland. The Grizzlies have tried a slew of players to sustain the “three” position on the court since Rudy Gay. The Ziaire/Konchar/Bane/LaRavia/Roddy/Vince Williams committee has a lot of solid rotational players, but no surefire option. We’ve seen Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Garrett Temple, Justin Holiday, James Ennis, Chandler Parsons, Tony Allen, Troy Williams, Matt Barnes, Jeff Green, Tayshaun Prince, Vince Carter, Mike Miller, and Courtney Lee all cycle through as the “Fifth Starter” since the 2013-2014 season. Bringing in Holland could, theoretically, give Memphis their best wing player since Rudy Gay was traded in the 2012-2013 season.
Holland comes with his fair share of questions; no doubt. Synergy has him shooting 25.2% on threes with over 105 attempts, and he was a negative assist-to-turnover ratio player. That being said, the G League has rarely ever produced positive shooting prospects despite landing some highly regarded recruits. There is also the fact that he shot on an NBA court, so this was his adjustment period. Also, this was probably the least talented team the Ignite have had since their inception. How much can we lay at Holland’s feet? To speak of his positives, Ron is a very good athlete, with the likelihood that he can improve in that area. He rebounded well and showed the tools to be an impactful defender. He spent a lot of time being the high-usage guy, so that adds to the allure that maybe the Grizz finally get their wing of the future.
To throw one more name out there, why wouldn’t Cody Williams be a nice fit for this team? Look, I know there are perceived injury concerns with seemingly any prospect that sprains their ankle before they get drafted, but Cody showed that he can actually come back from injury in a college season. There is the bloodline connection with the Thunder’s Jalen Williams, and I can see why teams may be confident in Cody putting on good weight and having a high aptitude for learning the game based on what we’ve seen from J-Dub. Cody was a great prospect on his own merits too, though.
He began the season shooting over 50% from deep prior to injury, and finished shooting 41.5% on the season. Even though the shooting came on low-ish volume, he showed great touch from all over the floor. Williams can get to the cup at will, and finished in the 89th percentile on cutting. There seems to be a large contingent of evaluators that buy his off-ball flashes, but let’s remember that Cody came into the season with some natural feel, wiggle, and vision to potentially grow as a playmaker. He graded out as “Average” as a pick-and-roll ball-handler on over 50 possessions this season.
Williams would need to improve on defense and rebounding, but he comes with great size (6’6.5” without shoes), and a frame to support getting stronger. That strength should shore up some of his weaknesses. Williams might be sort of “more-of-the-same” at the forward spot, but he may also have the highest upside of anyone that falls to them at nine–maybe of any 3-man on their current roster.
How do you feel about those names, Rowan?
Rowan: Williams and Holland are fascinating names that Memphis could consider. Both have had tumultuous draft seasons, as you mentioned, but each is still a supremely talented wing who could fit right into what Memphis is looking for in their starting lineup. I’m not sure that either one is the starting wing of today, but both could be the starting wing of the future for the Grizzlies.
In some ways, that’s where the crux of the argument lies for Memphis. Are they willing to use their potential highest draft pick in the Ja Morant era to draft more of a project or try to fill a need? Does Holland or Williams have the skills the team needs to maximize their window? Would Edey, Filipowski, Carter, or Knecht be better at getting the team closer to contention?
These are all questions that the team has to answer for themselves, but given their unique situation, all of them are potential answers. We’ll have to wait until the draft night itself to see what direction Memphis takes, but it’s a good problem for a team to have that there are so many different players who could fill a role for them and not be expected to be stars from day one.
Nice breakdown. First off, Im a believer in Edey. I think he is unique in some ways, and that makes some scouts uncomfortable. But look where Jokic got drafted. Look at where marc gasol got drafted. There were lots of more *sure fire* centers on the board before them and none are iin the league. This is not a science ffs. Its experience and intuition--- Anyway, Edey is a smart kid, first, he is durable, he has an amazing work ethic. OK.... a couple thoughts. Where is jared McClain? (Filipowski is a bust). McClain is arguably the best shooter not named Sheppard. I dont like Knecht. First off, he is a poor defender. Not just below average, but bad. His age. And you could have McClain or Devin Carter. Now l love carter. I think his shooting is not as good as it seems (see his ff %) but his defense is outstanding (D Anthony Melton is a decent comp...but maybe better). Cody WIlliams has not shown he is an NBA player. I dont like his engine...or lackthereof. Stephan Castle is probably gone. But ron holland is intriguing. John HOllinger loves him. I sort of get it. The thing is, if he never improves his shooting you have drafted Nassir Little. Not worth a ten pick. I would look hard at Kyshawn George and at Johnny Furphy too. Both young and one has to be patient. But george is very seductive with that size.