Nate Ament and Resetting Expectations | The Prospect Overview
Tennessee Freshman Nate Ament was once a projected Top Five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. An emergent group of freshmen and his own inefficiency have hurt his stock. So, what is Nate Ament?
Heavy is the head that wears the crown.
Coming into the year, the basketball world had lofty expectations for Tennessee freshman Nate Ament. At 6’10” with a smooth handle, advanced playmaking ability for his size, and an intriguing shot-making portfolio, Ament had wowed evaluators at lower levels. This blend of size, skill, and feel is an enviable package in modern basketball. As a result, he was commonly mocked in the top five on 2026 NBA Mock Drafts.
Then, the season started, and two things happened.
The first is that the overall freshman class not only met expectations but exceeded them. Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and AJ Dybantsa were as advertised. Caleb Wilson and Darius Acuff showed that they’re to be taken seriously. Keaton Wagler and Kingston Flemings stormed the party. Plus, several returners have taken big leaps. Yaxel Lendeborg, Labaron Philon, Thomas Haugh, Christian Anderson, and Joshua Jefferson have further solidified their NBA cases.
The second thing is that Nate Ament has arguably come in below where he was expected. For starters, Tennessee has been underwhelming. They were 17th on the initial AP poll, and they’re currently just outside the top 25. It would be unfair to put all of that, or even a majority of that, on Nate Ament, but he’s had his shortcomings. From a draft standpoint, his efficiency, defensive production, and athletic indicators have come under fire. This can lead to a whiplash effect, where evaluators can focus solely on what a prospect is failing to do, rather than considering what positive traits a player has and which shortcomings are things that could be worked through in time. Perhaps consensus was too high on Ament coming into the year, but perhaps we’re being too cruel now.
So today, let’s clear the deck of expectations. Let’s not think about what could or should have been. We’re going to examine A LOT of numbers, and the tape, too, across several areas of his game. Let’s look at what Nate Ament is actually doing, how well it stacks up to past prospects, and how we should fairly assess his stock going forward.
All statistics are relative to long-term NBA players within Ament’s position group during their pre-draft seasons. For the sake of simplicity, I’ve organized percentiles into the following tiers: Great (81st through 100th percentile), Good (61st through 100th percentile), Adequate (41st through 60th percentile), Subpar (21st through 40th percentile), and Poor (20th percentile and below).
OFFENSE
Big Picture Profile
GREAT:
-Usage
-Points Per 100 PossessionsGOOD:
-Defensive Box Plus-MinusSUBPAR:
-Box Plus-Minus
-Offensive Box Plus-Minus
-True Shooting PercentagePOOR:
-Effective Field Goal Percentage
We’ll keep it brief here and expand on specifics as we go along, but as we go through Ament’s profile, the big picture issues are clear. Simply put, Ament is inefficient, not just relative to expectations, but to legitimate NBA prospects in general. He struggles to score from the field, though his foul-drawing ability does help boost his True Shooting Percentage. Still, there’s room for doubt. Ament carries a massive usage load, particularly for a freshman. While volume scoring isn’t the most exciting thing in the modern era, the fact that Ament has a heavy creation burden placed upon him does excuse the efficiency to a degree. This is one of the primary reasons I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Ament. One of my favorite draft pieces ever by Boris Beric, which was on two-way players rather than projected first-round picks like Ament, showed that usage can be king when it comes to eventually carving out an NBA roster spot. It’s often much easier for a player to “scale down” into a simplified role rather than go from college role player to NBA role player. It’s true on the margins, but it’s true higher up the board, too.
Perimeter Scoring Profile
GREAT:
-Pull-Up Two Volume
-Pull-Up Two PercentageGOOD:
-Threes per 100 PossessionsADEQUATE:
-Free Throw PercentageSUBPAR:
-Catch-and-Shoot ThreesPOOR:
-3FG%
Nate Ament has obviously been a let-down from three-point range this season. Coming into the year, his ability to stretch the floor was a big part of his appeal. During his final AAU season, Ament shot 41.7% from long range while taking 4.8 attempts per game. Plus, he sunk 85% of his 80 free throw attempts. So, it’s not a surprise that his 30.2% mark from distance this season has left both Volunteers fans and scouts alike wanting more. Plus, it’s not as if Ament has had the toughest shot diet from deep this season. Per Synergy, he’s taken 86 threes, and only nine of them were off the dribble. Of his 77 catch-and-shoot attempts, 48 of them are classified as “unguarded.” Still, he hasn’t been able to punish defenses in this context, going 31.2% off the catch from deep on the year.
Still, I wouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. The overall indicators surrounding Ament, outside of his raw percentages from three, are encouraging. For starters, Ament is a freshman playing in a high usage role, and his volume from long range is tremendous. When I researched players who shot poorly in college but became good shooters in the NBA, three of the most common throughlines were age, operating with a hefty creation burden, and three-point volume. Ament checks all three of those boxes. Then, there’s the fact that he was a great shooter at lower levels, so he could simply be having a down year from three. Plus, there are other encouraging touch indicators. He’s a solid free-throw shooter on hefty volume. He’s also an absolute assassin in the mid-range. Ament has a solid dribble game and a serviceable counter arsenal. Whether he’s crossing over or stopping and popping, he has a few ways to get himself space in a tricky area of the court. His high release and go-to turnaround fallaway are great tools to shoot over defenders even when he struggles to generate separation. For these reasons, I’m actually quite bullish on Ament as a three-point shooter at the NBA level.
The fact that Ament is a prolific mid-range scorer can be looked at through a few different lenses. One is that he may prefer a suboptimal shot diet and/or struggle to get all the way to the rim, similar to players like Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura, or Patrick Williams. Conversely, future stars like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum had heavy mid-range diets in college. We’ll dig into this more in our final projection at the end, but it’s something to keep in mind as we continue.
Interior Scoring Profile
GREAT:
-Free Throw RateADEQUATE:
-Offensive ReboundingSUBPAR:
-Rim PressurePOOR:
-2FG%
-Rim Finishing
-Dunks Per Game
Here’s where things start to get a little murky. Ament has really struggled inside this year. We’ll start off by giving credit where it’s due. Ament is much more comfortable putting the ball on the floor than most of his size. While he might not be the most explosive or dynamic with his handle, he’s not completely out of his depth when he needs to create something for himself. He ranks in the 31st percentile pick and roll ball-handler scorer and in the 57th percentile as an isolation scorer, per Synergy. Those numbers won’t knock your socks off, but they’re serviceable, and arguably intriguing given his physical dimensions. Then, there’s Ament’s toughness. What he lacks in polish, he attempts to make up for with grit. He’s been fearless against contact downhill this season, registering a tremendous .601 Free Throw Rate, which is an elite mark. This exceptional foul-drawing ability, paired with his touch indicators, is exciting. Plus, he’s been solid on the offensive glass, sneaking in before generating a second chance look for a teammate.
Unfortunately, Ament has both struggled to get all the way to the rim and convert when he gets there. There are both physical and technical issues here. From a physical standpoint, Ament doesn’t have a super easy way to create advantages. He’s not a blur with his first step, nor is he so powerful that he can simply drive his man backwards. On a technical level, it feels as if Ament can premeditate his drives at times. He’ll find himself swarmed in traffic but still toss up an ill-advised shot despite open teammates and time on the clock. His counter footwork, particularly with Eurosteps, isn’t always the cleanest, which can lead to clunky gathers. Additionally, his lack of strength is an issue. He has a hard time holding his line when bumped, and he doesn’t elevate well through contact. Ament’s low dunk numbers are a function of his lack of straight-line burst and his subpar lift without a runway. All of these problems compound each other. As a result, Ament is shooting just 46.1% on all twos and 46.7% at the rim in the halfcourt, both of which are scary marks for a forward prospect. And unlike the shooting, it’s harder to be optimistic in my projection here. It feels unlikely that Ament can make such a physical leap in terms of both speed and strength while also developing his skills that will allow him to transform his downhill game in a substantial way.
Playmaking Profile
GREAT:
-UsageGOOD:
-Assist RateADEQUATE:
-Turnover Rate
-Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
A key part of Ament’s appeal coming into the season was his combination of size and ball skills. I would say he’s neither exceeded nor fallen short of my personal expectations on this front. From a pure statistical standpoint, he’s done quite well. Despite a hefty usage burden, Ament has done a good job of avoiding turnovers while generating assists at a solid clip. Ament’s aforementioned poise with the ball is a big part of that equation. His 10.0 TOV% in ball screens and 5.6TOV% on isolation plays (per Synergy) show that when he’s tasked with running the show, if nothing else, he’s unlikely to make a mistake. I also really like how Ament executes his passes. His understanding of how to best get the ball to his teammates and the sense of urgency on his deliveries both ensure that his offensive advantage can be continued. With that being said, there’s a bit of rigidity to his playmaking process. I mentioned his tendency to premediate things at times, and because of that, he makes few sharp, on-the-go, improvisational reads. A lot of his assists have been the result of his ability to function within scripted actions rather than his ability to break down defenses and read the floor.
Defensive Profile
GOOD:
-Steal rateADEQUATE:
-Defensive ReboundingSUBPAR:
-Fouls per 100 PossessionsPOOR:
-Block Rate
Nate Ament’s defensive output this year has been a mixed bag. Let’s get the negative stuff out of the way so we can close on a high note. Ament’s physical issues are on display at times on this end of the floor. He tends to be conservative to his man off the ball, and because he can’t turn on the jets or shift directions super seamlessly in space, he can be late to plays at the rim more than one would like to see, hence his low block rate. He doesn’t always attack the glass with fervor. When he guards down, he can tend to put his hands on his man rather than getting wide, sitting, and sliding, which diminishes the value of his length. Plus, it leads to a lot of fouls, which is tough to stomach given the lack of event creation he brings to the table.
Still, I’m pretty optimistic about where he’ll ultimately settle on this end of the floor. He’s done a solid job of talking and communicating as the season has progressed. He can cover ground hard, delivering potent closeouts. Throw in his length, and he can be tough to shoot over on the perimeter. And when Ament is engaged at the point of attack, he’s a chore to deal with. He has the length and footwork to stay square and completely deter ball-handlers looking to create an advantage against him. His steal generation, both on and off the ball, is rock solid. Ament knows how to time his strips, whether he’s guarding at the point-of-attack or digging in on a driver. Ament’s length, fluidity, and timing should make him a rock-solid defender at the next level who is capable of competently covering multiple positions.
Conclusion
Nate Ament entered the year with lofty expectations. Now, I’m skeptical of the highest-end outcomes that many evaluators projected for him at the beginning of the year. Ament’s poor interior scoring, static creation game, and run-of-the-mill defense are ceiling inhibitors. If you think he can be an All-Star caliber player, you’re asking for a lot of outlier developments. And if I’m wrong about Ament eventually being a good shooter at the next level, there’s a world where things could get pretty ugly.
But at the same time, I think we need to be careful about selling Ament short. Sometimes, these longer dudes who are comfortable with the rock in their hands take a while to put it all together. And if you look at the bare bones here, there are a lot of valuable role player traits on display. His shooting indicators are great. He knows how to draw fouls. He’s a reliable, steady decision-maker. He has the length and agility to guard multiple positions. These are good things! Nate Ament might not be who you wanted him to be, but it’s time to put preseason expectations to the side and live in reality. Nate Ament has an excellent, versatile plug-and-play skill set that could work in a variety of systems. If you expected Kevin Durant, I’m sorry, but that was highly unlikely to begin with. But a Jumbo Max Christie, or a proto-Tristan Da Silva, is a player a lot of teams would be happy to have. And if the on-ball, physical, and interior scoring developments come along, that’s awesome. But first and foremost, I think we should understand that the moderate outcomes here are pretty solid and warrant mid-first-round consideration.
QUICK HITS
All statistics in this section as of 1/30/2026
-Arizona’s Brayden Burries has been COOKING in conference play. The 6’4” freshman guard checks a lot of boxes. He aggressively hunts the pull-up three when opponents go under ball screens, and he’s hit 43.9% of those attempts on the year, per Synergy. He puts pressure on the rim and has made 64.1% of his half-court shots at the basket, per Synergy. Plus, Burries excels at getting out in transition, which is an exceptionally important skill in today’s pace-oriented world. He’s not just a scorer, either. He’s quick to punish help as a passer, and he forces turnovers on defense. Burries is looking like a serious climber and a potential one-and-done player. While there are a lot of great guard prospects this year, Burries’ blend of size, physicality, inside-out scoring, playmaking, is defensive output are tough to match.
-Flory Bidunga has gotten a bit overlooked. The 6’9” big man had a great, productive freshman season for the Kansas Jayhawks. While I thought he had the ability to eventually carve out energy minutes in the NBA, my belief heading into the year was that his lackluster ball skills would ultimately confine him to a smaller role. Either one of two things happened. Either I slighted Bidunga for what he didn’t show as a playmaker because he simply wasn’t given the opportunity to show off those skills, or he improved significantly on that front. Regardless, I love to see it. Bidunga has looked much more comfortable handling the ball, facilitating offense, and reading the floor. His assist rate has jumped from 3.6% to 11.0%, and he’s done that while reducing his turnover rate. His above-the-rim bounce and shot blocking always gave him a chance to be an NBA player, but if Bidunga can continue to add to his skill set, he’ll improve his odds of being a long-lasting, impactful one, too.
-It feels like Braden Smith hasn’t been as buzzy a name since so many other guard prospects have been having great seasons. Still, I see a world where he can be a regular NBA contributor. The 6’0” senior guard from Purdue has been as impactful as ever. He’s a super savvy ball screen operator who does a great job of keeping his dribble under control against heavy pressure, making extremely precise deliveries through tight windows at high speeds, and utilizing ball fakes to maximize space inside. His 44.3 AST% shows what a true engine he is. Plus, he’s just a hair under 40% from three in his career, and he has great speed in passing lanes. I’ve long been a small guard skeptic, but if Ryan Nembhard can find regular minutes due to his basketball genius, I don’t see why the same wouldn’t be true for Smith, who’s been a much more reliable shooter and defensive playmaker throughout his college career.
-Ugonna Onyenso was a really hot name a few years ago. You don’t hear about him much anymore, and I think that’s wrong. The 6’10” senior big man has quietly been awesome at Virginia this year. The dude blocks everything, posting a 16.1 BLK% while still doing a good job of staying out of foul trouble. He’s quick, he gets off the floor in a hurry, and he has fast hands to track the ball before swatting it. Onyenso has also been solid in his simple offensive role, where he rolls to the basket and finishes in the dunker spot. He’s not someone who can do a lot with the ball, which definitely limits his upside. But if I may once again reference an undrafted Mavericks player, Moussa Cisse has appeared in 26 NBA games this season and has been fine. Why not Ugonna Onyenso?
-I want to give some quick love to Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli. The 6’7” senior is currently leading the Big Ten in scoring. He’s got a funky self-creation arsenal. Much like Brooks Barnhizer before him, Martinelli blends a herky-jerky dribble game with raw power. The lefty thrives off of floaters, push shots, and touch shots. It’s not the most traditionally optimal shot diet, but it works for him, as evident by his 63.3 TS% on 30.4 USG%. Two other factors are at play there—his toughness, which leads to fouls (.483 FTr), and his improved shooting numbers. Martinelli has made 48.3% of his threes this year, though he’s taking under five attempts per 100 possessions. It looks odd, almost as if he’s launching one of his floaters, but from really far away, so there’s fair reason to be skeptical. Plus, he’s not much of a stock creator (1.0 STL%, 1.2 BLK%), though he’s a good individual defender. The NBA case is an odd one, as he’s a floater-reliant forward with just okay passing vision who doesn’t really shoot and doesn’t make plays on defense. Still, because he’s been so productive and efficient, I think he’s a good bet to get a cup of coffee.