Nathan's NBA Sophomore Rankings: Stephon Castle Is A Bona fide Winner
Stephon Castle leads our own Nathan Grubel's updated NBA sophomore rankings at the quarter season mark after a San Antonio Spurs upset over the OKC Thunder in the NBA Cup.
Stephon Castle’s NBA Cup Semifinal performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t get off to the best of starts, but the San Antonio Spurs guard turned it around and made several impactful plays down the stretch.
Between his one-on-one defense against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to timely drives and acrobatic finishes, Castle’s two-way play was one of a few reasons why the Spurs pulled off an incredible upset victory to march towards the NBA Cup Finals.
And even after that performance, there’s a legitimate debate to be had regarding who is the NBA’s top second-year player. The field at the top is a bit more open than in the 2023 and 2025 classes, but perhaps a point just as important to get across about the sophomores is just how deep this class goes with rotational contributors.
Narrowing this field down to 10 players to rank was an excruciatingly difficult exercise. Well before getting to any honorable mentions and players to pay attention to, I could’ve easily written 10,000-plus words on where these guys stand and why they’re valuable to the short-term and long-term success of their respective teams.
But alas, we have to give the people what they want at No Ceilings, and that means RANKINGS.
So without further ado, let’s go through my Top 10 NBA Sophomores at the quarter mark of the season, while also hitting on some others worth discussing as we move deeper through the 2025-26 regular season!
*All stats are as of 12/14/25, and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference, Synergy Sports, Cleaning The Glass, and Dunks And Threes*
NBA Sophomore Quarter Season Rankings
1. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
2025-26 Season Stats: 18.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.7 STKs, 50.5/28.6/72.1 Shooting Splits
Stephon Castle’s performance in the NBA Cup Semifinals was most certainly a highlight of his young career.
Castle started out a bit overaggressive against the set defense of the OKC Thunder. We saw the turnover woes out in full force, on top of some missed shots. But Castle picked it back up, found better gaps to attack on the move, and really turned up his overall defensive effort in the second half.
Despite not putting up crazy steal and block numbers, Castle’s defense is as effective as any perimeter defender in the league because of his strength and fundamentally sound lateral footwork. Castle plays defense with his feet and chest, not so much with his hands. He stays out of foul trouble far more often than not, and walls off drivers in isolation situations. Creating deflections is an important theme in today’s NBA because they allow for easy offense in transition. But if I’m evaluating a defender, I’m just as inclined to take the player who forces difficult matchups into contested shots, or they just have to move off the rock altogether.
I mentioned the turnover woes showing up against the Thunder, and on the season, Castle’s turnover rate is above 20%. That’s not exactly a mark that coaches want to see from someone who bounces between guard and wing, but with those risks as a passer have come some thrilling rewards when he threads the needle for an effective assist.
Castle has to improve his ball control as a handler to avoid takeaways, and could reign in some of his passing decisions. To me, the shooting still is a major key to San Antonio’s success, given the current personnel. With everyone healthy, Castle can split touches with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, easing the playmaking burden. In those lineups, however, Castle has to be able to knock down catch-and-shoot looks if defenses are sagging off him once the ball is swung around. He’s only close to 33% on those shots on the season, so there’s still a lot of work to be done with Castle as a shooting threat.
Still, few players his age possess as much capability as a switchable defender and on-ball scorer. Castle’s fearless demeanor is fun to watch, and he respects his teammates to play a complementary role when others have it going. He’s the exact type of WINNING player any coach would want in the locker room.
Castle communicates, plays with passion, and is STRONG on both ends of the floor. His willingness to embrace physicality helps to set the tone for the rest of the team, as was apparent against OKC in the NBA Cup Semifinals.
Castle won NBA Rookie of the Year for a reason, and remains atop my rankings for the sophomore class. However, a few other players are nipping at his heels and are very much in play for top dog in the Class of 2024.
2. Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
2025-26 Season Stats: 19.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 STKs, 51.5/34.6/63.9 Shooting Splits
I’m not sure how many people are paying attention, but Alex Sarr has had a brilliant season for the Washington Wizards.
He’s currently nursing an injury, but when he’s been healthy, Sarr has upped his game to a completely different level from where he was last season.
The only other player who is matching Sarr in terms of rebounds, assists, blocks, and usage rates while matching or exceeding his productivity as a shooter is Victor Wembanyama. Think about that. Not even Chet Holmgren or Evan Mobley, two better players in their own right, are producing in all of the same ways on the court that Sarr is.
At over 7’ tall, Sarr is one of the NBA’s most unique players, which is why he was regarded so highly coming into the 2024 draft. Sarr has increased his scoring volume inside the arc, and he is hitting on 54.5% of his two-point jumpers. He’s maintained a close-to league average mark from distance, and is finishing much better around the basket with touch.
Defensively, Sarr has spent the last two seasons challenging shots and coming away with blocks and deflections against opponents who try and enter the lane against him. What’s even more impressive is how he’s battled and held his own from a physicality standpoint against other traditional big men if they’ve challenged him in the post. Sarr’s improved play as a big man rather than as a stretch forward has driven his production in the right direction, so much so that the Wizards are a full 11 points WORSE per 100 possessions when Sarr is OFF the floor.
To put a bow on the Sarr discussion, he’s already this good with arguably the worst guard room in the NBA from a playmaking standpoint AND zero quality bigs to play behind or alongside him. Sarr’s play without either of those things means he’s had to do a ton on his own, and he’s done his job well. Sarr has positioned himself without the ball, found comfortable spots in the paint to operate, and has played his role filling the lane and acting as a great play finisher in transition.
I’ve seen a lot of discussion about sophomores in the NBA class without Sarr’s name being brought up once. In my humble opinion, Sarr is VERY much in play for the class’s top spot in the rankings, and may end up there for me by the conclusion of this season if he keeps up his tremendous play. Wizards fans should be ecstatic about the direction of the franchise, given the two-year success of Sarr and another player coming up a bit later on who has also begun to blossom on both ends of the floor in meaningful ways.
3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
2025-26 Season Stats: 12.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.0 STKs, 47.5/44.4/71.4 Shooting Splits
Reed Sheppard has been an absolute flamethrower for the Houston Rockets this season as one of the most dynamic shooters in the NBA.
In terms of jump shots overall, both from two and three, the only other player who has taken and made as many jumpers as Sheppard overall, off the catch, and off the dribble, is Mikal Bridges per Synergy Sports. That’s how special his season has been as a shot maker.
Look up Sheppard’s shot chart, and it’s essentially green from everywhere, even around the basket. Sheppard hasn’t created a high volume of shots at the rim, as he didn’t in college either. But that’s just Sheppard being a self-aware driver who takes those looks when he knows he has an advantage once he gets all the way to the rim.
The most important thing with Sheppard is that he’s been able to use ball screens and knife his way into the paint. His craft in getting to his pull-up jumper, or drawing enough defensive attention to make the next play, has been fun to watch; it’s given the offense for the Rockets a nice wrinkle outside of the post play and offensive rebounding tandem of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. After all, Kevin Durant can’t do everything by himself—even as the all-world shooter that he is.
That’s why Sheppard has been an ideal co-star alongside Amen Thompson in the backcourt with Fred VanVleet out for the season. Thompson can take the tougher defensive assignment, while Reed is free to play to his strengths as a team defender and deflections artist. And on offense, Sheppard can operate with or without the ball, and set up guys like Thompson and Sengun on cuts to the rim. The gravity he’s commanded as a shooter is evident even when he’s not going off for 20-plus points.
The key for Sheppard in Houston was always going to be whether his offensive impact could outweigh any defensive concerns, with the Rockets hopefully winning his minutes on the floor. As of now, the Rockets have been handily beating opponents with a starting lineup (when healthy) of Sheppard-Thompson-Durant-Jabari Smith-Sengun. That group is +9.4 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass. When Sheppard has shared the floor with double bigs (Sengun and Adams), the Rockets are +14.3 PP100.
Nuclear shooting can relieve several on-court concerns. Given the fact that Sheppard was one of the greatest pure shooting prospects I’ve ever evaluated in college, if not the greatest, it was only a matter of time before he got himself acclimated to the NBA line and started hitting almost everything he looks at out there.
Sheppard has a case as the best sophomore in the class, both now and moving forward, and remains in the same spot in my rankings where he was drafted at #3.
4. Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
2025-26 Season Stats: 14.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 46.7/35.4/88.5 Shooting Splits
Speaking of guards who have had exceptional sophomore seasons, Ajay Mitchell has been a revelation for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
A former second round pick, Mitchell is firmly in the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year race, and whether he actually wins the award or not, he has been one of the best players off the bench in the league.
Mitchell is a crafty guard who is efficient from almost every spot on the floor. Known out of college as a rim-attacking lead guard, Mitchell’s improvements as a shooter have afforded him opportunities to play with any lineup construction that Oklahoma City wants to trot out.
That’s what has made this organization unique over the last few seasons. Yes, the two shot-blocking forces in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein offer loads of breathing room on defense as true stalwarts in the paint, but on the perimeter, Mitchell is one of quite a few guards that don’t offer weaknesses to poke and prod at on either end of the floor.
Leave Mitchell open from the corners or on the wings, and he can knock those shots down. Put him in a ball screen, and he can punish drop coverages or make the right read if he’s blitzed accepting the screen. Mitchell can even reject that screen up top, and knows how to knife his way through defenses and play with pace to get guys on his hip for pull-ups or floaters around the basket.
Defensively, Mitchell isn’t someone teams can just “pick on” as a weak link. Mitchell has a strong base, and he holds his ground in post-up situations even against bigger wings and forwards. Every Thunder guard has those same strengths, while also possessing the kind of length that shrinks the court on the perimeter. The only way to beat OKC is to try and get guys in constant motion, always chasing the ball. There is no weak spot to target this team in one-on-one or stationary situations.
In terms of Mitchell’s individual upside, he has all of the tricks of the trade as a scoring guard, so long as his three-point shot is actually as good as it’s been (40% on 20 three-point attempts off the dribble per Synergy Sports).
I’m not one to want to throw around special comparisons like a Jalen Brunson, but I can see aesthetically where those comparisons come from, given Mitchell’s poise, build, and approach to scoring inside the arc. As he continues to refine his footwork and hesitations/fakes, there’s only so much one will be able to do in terms of defending him as long as his jumper is falling.
It will be fascinating to see how OKC builds this team out financially over the coming seasons, with so many key rotational guys eventually coming up for new contracts. One thing is for certain: Mitchell is an excellent young guard, and he is sure to make a ton of money in the NBA for years to come as an important cog in a winning machine.
5. Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat
2025-26 Season Stats: 11.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 2.3 STKs, 53.7/42.1/81.6 Shooting Splits
Outside of passing metrics, Kel’el Ware has seen a very nice upward trajectory as a player in his second season.
When he’s at his best, few players in his age group are as impactful on both ends of the floor. Ware is a high-level finisher, insane lob target, budding spot-up threat, and is molding into a borderline dominant rebounding force offensively and defensively.
And when Ware is locked in as a shot blocker, staying on the court and not falling for any foul baiting? There aren’t many guys who can make the same athletic plays recovering and rotating in space that Ware can with his agility and length at the center position.
Ware’s greatest asset as a play finisher for the Miami Heat this season has been in transition, where he rates as “Excellent” in every aspect of the play type per Synergy Sports. Be it alley-oops, running finishes, or trailer shots, Ware is a lethal transition scorer at center. He fits perfectly with the uptempo nature of the Heat, currently ranking near the top of the league in pace of play.
There are still some aspects of Ware’s game that need to improve. He lacks a smidge of physicality to allow him to battle the best big men in the post. That same strength disadvantage shows up in his layup numbers at the rim, where he rates as “Poor” when comparing his efficiency across the rest of the league. Those issues, along with the poor fouls and lack of attention at times on defense, can hurt Miami on any given night.
But few players in the league are capable of making the same plays that he can. Some of his stat lines this year have been absurd, and given the growth trajectory he’s displayed as a player only in his second season, I’ve chosen to reward him with an All-Sophomore First Team spot if you will. However, there are a few guys behind him who are very capable of taking this spot in the rankings with better health and consistency.
6. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
2025-26 Season Stats: 13.6 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, 2.5 STKs, 63.3/20.0/78.1 Shooting Splits
Zach Edey got off to a slow start to this season due to injury, and he is now out again for an extended period of time. Those are the main reasons why I don’t have him higher in my ranking, as his durability is a major question mark for Edey’s future in the league.
But…when Edey has been on the floor, he’s looked like arguably the best player for the Memphis Grizzlies moving forward—even on a team that has Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
There just isn’t an answer for Edey around the basket if he’s able to establish position and catch the ball in his spots. He’s too strong, and he can bully even some of the best big men in the league if he has the right positioning. And when teams bring doubles, Edey has improved so much as a passer in those situations to where if he can’t spin and score through multiple defenders, he can make that next play and ensure the offense comes away with a positive possession.
Defensively, the Grizzlies are 26.2 points BETTER with him on the floor per Cleaning The Glass. That is such a stupid number that I don’t even know how to comprehend that, but it’s essentially the Victor Wembanyama effect just in a different way.
Wemby changes so many shots and attempts because of his mobility and the ground he can cover on top of his absurd 8’0” wingspan. Edey is such a presence in the paint that it’s a challenge for any drivers to find a reason to try and go at him if he’s positioned around the basket. When opposing offenses have tried to “target” him in ball screen situations or pull him away from the basket, Edey has gotten much better at holding his ground on an island and still contesting a shot with someone in front of him.
Edey’s impact on the glass, as a rim deterrent and shot blocker, and elite rim finisher has helped the Grizzlies turn the season around and pick up steam heading into calendar year 2026. It’s unfortunate he has to miss a few more weeks of games, as Edey was becoming one of my favorite players to watch right now across the entire league.
Zach is tough as nails, competes hard, and cares about not just beating his opponents but humiliating them at times with his raw size and force. There is no other player in the league who dominates inside quite like he does. Sure, other bigs have more natural and perfected skill, but in terms of pure force on both ends of the floor? Edey has that one in his bag.
If Edey can get to a point in his career where he’s playing on a more consistent basis, he has the edge to put up monster per-minute numbers and end up on awards ballots all over the place. If that happens, Edey is the one player outside the Top 5 of these rankings I could see challenging for best player in the 2024 class when it’s all said and done.
7. Kyshawn George, Washington Wizards
2025-26 Season Stats: 15.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 2.0 STKs, 47.1/44.4/75.5 Shooting Splits
To be perfectly clear, Kyshawn George has a real Top 5 argument in these rankings as he’s been a great 2024 class performer on the wing for the Washington Wizards.
It’s more a testament to how good the guys have been ahead of him for George to rank where he is at seventh, but this should by no means reflect poorly on how much I value him as a player moving forward.
George’s offensive versatility has been a saving grace for the offense in the games the Wizards have actually won. Bub Carrington has been very hit-or-miss in terms of pulling the scoring and playmaking levers at the same time. CJ McCollum has been the starting point guard for Washington, but who knows how much longer he’ll actually be on the roster.
For better or worse, George is the team’s best option at point guard right now as a playmaking forward. He has great balance and vision on the move, and can see over defenders to make that next read. His passing TOUCH is awesome for a bigger wing his size, and he blends all of that passing ability with his shooting stroke from the outside.
George’s handle has continued to improve since his college days at Miami, and his play over the summer for Canada in the Americup turned the heads of NBA scouts and fans as he really took a leap as an on-ball scorer.
On defense, George can cover multiple positions and shows great discipline and awareness as a team defender in different lineup constructions. He knows where to be and when to rotate, making him one of the better two-way cogs the Wizards have moving forward.
Even if George doesn’t reach the peak of his powers as a top two option for a great offense, he’s proven that his “floor” as a starting role player that can dribble/pass/shoot/defend at an NBA level is incredibly valuable, and something teams can’t just acquire on the trade or free agency markets for cheap. George is the exact archetype of player that NBA teams should be swinging on in the draft outside of the most obvious star-level or outlier prospects.
George still has some room to grow as a more traditional pick-and-roll operator, but ranks in the 79th percentile in possessions plus assists per Synergy Sports. As a balanced creator/shooter, George is among the best young guys in the league at his position/size.
8. Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers
2025-26 Season Stats: 10.0 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.4 BPG, 48.2/24.1/81.0 Shooting Splits
It’s not as easy to explain Donovan Clingan’s spot in these rankings as it is for some of the other players already mentioned. I could’ve had the two guys below him just ahead.
But when I watch the Portland Trail Blazers, Clingan stands out as an impactful presence in the minutes he plays because of the dirty work he does as a rim defender, screen setter, and rebounder.
Let’s get the offense out of the way: it’s not a pretty sight. He’s currently shooting below 50% from the field for a center, which generally is not something you see from a more “rim running” archetype. Part of that is tied to Clingan attempting more outside shots this season than he has at any point in his career so far, both pro and college. Another part of that is that he doesn’t have the traditional post footwork of the other big men ahead of him, meaning that most of his higher efficiency offense comes off garbage opportunities around the basket.
The good news for Clingan is that he LOVES cleaning up the garbage on the offensive glass. When Clingan is on the floor, the Trail Blazers rank incredibly high in terms of offensive rebounding rate (97th percentile per Cleaning The Glass) because he’s a box-out machine and knows how to position himself to take boards from some of the best defensive rebounders in the league.
Clingan’s screen setting and handoff game have been a nice wrinkle this season on offense, especially when the ball has come back to find him, and he’s been able to make defenses pay with a triple at the top of the floor. Those are key areas for a player of his archetype to find success in, especially if he’s not a post magnet like some other top-tier center scorers are.
In the lane defensively, Clingan challenges shots and really alters the path of drivers and what shots they can take in the paint. Clingan is a mammoth of a man, and presents himself defensively in those situations as well as almost any other big. Opponents take 10% fewer shots at the basket when he’s on the floor, which is an astounding number that obviously ranks at the top of the NBA.
So is he doing anything flashy? Is he commanding a lot of usage and pouring in points? No. But his overall impact is deserving of a spot in these rankings as a player who knows his role and is committed to doing it well in the minutes he plays for Portland. Clingan looks the part of a starting center for years to come.
9. Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls
2025-26 Season Stats: 13.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 BPG, 46.9/32.4/81.8 Shooting Splits
Matas Buzelis hasn’t had a bad season for the Chicago Bulls by any means, and still projects well as a two-way forward who can get his own shot inside the arc and offer great support on the backline defensively in a team construct.
Where I struggle with Buzelis in terms of ranking him amongst his 2024 peers is the fact that I haven’t really seen him “improve” year-over-year up to this point. The jump shot is still a struggle for him from distance. He’s working on getting lower on his dribble to take guys off the bounce from the perimeter more often, but he isn’t there yet, and his one-on-one defense isn’t exactly something he can hang his hat on as it stands today.
Yes, Buzelis is an awesome transition player, cutter, and team defender who can rotate and cover ground with his length and anticipation. But there are as many ways to beat him or take his impact out of the game, even when he’s scoring points and grabbing boards to make his stats look good.
Again, Buzelis is a 6’10” athletic, vertical forward who can finish plays and do things defensively that every NBA team wants from a frontcourt player. That’s not the issue. In order for Buzelis to pass some of the guys ranked ahead of him, there just needs to be a bit more improvement to round out his two-way game.
One thing to keep an eye on with Matas: I have seen some more flashes from him as a passer, albeit just not at a volume to where it’s significantly raising his passing metrics. Buzelis is recognizing situations better in terms of how the defense is playing him in the halfcourt, and we’ve seen him make some easier reads more often this season. Continuing to improve as a ball mover, even from a stationary perspective vs. on the move, is a positive that plays well to what the Chicago Bulls want to do in a faster-paced system with Josh Giddey at the helm.
10. Jaylon Tyson, Cleveland Cavaliers
2025-26 Season Stats: 13.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.7 STKs, 53.1/46.3/76.7 Shooting Splits
Jaylon Tyson doesn’t have the same offensive responsibility as most of the guys ahead of him, and I haven’t quite seen as much of the defensive improvements as others are claiming, but I will say he’s an absolute dog and has owned his current role offensively from an efficiency standpoint.
Tyson is on the floor for two reasons: to shoot the cover off the ball, and hold his own enough defensively so that the Cleveland Cavaliers can win his minutes. For years, Cleveland has struggled to find a long-term answer at the wing position next to Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Tyson has been an intriguing proposition to that positional question mark, and he has been a “star in his role” this year for the Cavaliers.
Off the catch, in transition, at the rim, it hasn’t mattered. Tyson has been efficient in nearly everything he’s done. The Cavs have even found ways to get Tyson on the move in different actions, be it as a cutter or even as a roll man in ball screens. And he’s done well as an efficient scorer who’s maintained a better than 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
If I were to pick a dark horse to finish in the Top 5 of these rankings by season’s end, it might actually be Tyson if he continues to get some more secondary handling reps and rises to the occasion as an off-the-dribble shot maker. I want to see Tyson get more opportunities, as his efficiency in his role as a fourth or fifth option has warranted more looks to see just how much he can handle.
Tyson has been one of the best offensive role players in the NBA this season, and has gone underdiscussed. Tyson is just a good, winning basketball player on the wing.
NBA Sophomores Worth Discussing
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
There was one particular aspect of Zaccharie Risacher’s game overseas that plagued my pre-draft evaluation of him, and why I wasn’t as high coming in: the streaky shooting.
Risacher would have stretches as a prospect where he would shoot 40% from three, and other weeks he’d shoot 28-30%. There never was a real “consistency” about his perimeter game, and we’re seeing those mixed results play out in the NBA for the Atlanta Hawks during his second season.
Now, Risacher provides value in other areas outside of his scoring. He’s a good team defender at 6’10” with size and length, and he’s a real threat in transition with much better athleticism than given credit for. He’s also had flashes of connective passing in halfcourt situations.
But at the end of the day, his role on the floor is to shoot the rock, attack closeouts, and make the right plays defensively. Not being able to hit perimeter shots limits that second aspect of his role, and we know how being ineffective on offense can create “off nights” on the other end of the floor.
Risacher is hitting a little bit of a sophomore wall of late, despite a great start to this year for the Hawks. I’m not overly concerned, and he has the talent to rise up into my rankings even by the season’s halfway point, let alone towards the end of the season. But Risacher’s upside is something that was always a bit tricky to project, given that he doesn’t have the ball handling right now to play in more of a takeover role as a primary option.
Again, Risacher doesn’t have to be a takeover guy offensively for Atlanta. Jalen Johnson is a clear alpha, and we all know how impactful Trae Young is as a conductor and scoring threat for Atlanta. But Risacher was a first overall pick in the 2024 draft, and therefore rightly needs to be held to a higher standard. There’s more to his game for him to unlock, and I’ll be watching closely to see how he can swing this year back into his favor as we move into 2026.
Tristan Da Silva, Orlando Magic
Out of all the players I didn’t rank, Tristan Da Silva pained me the most because I just love everything about his game and who he is as a player. Da Silva has played a great complementary role for the Orlando Magic while both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have missed time.
He’s not nearly as dynamic as those two offensively, but he can make outside shots, attack defenses on the move, and defend across multiple positions. Da Silva even has some really nice connective vision as a passer.
There isn’t really any one area of his game that Da Silva has used to separate himself from his peers who have produced in larger roles this season, which is why I didn’t put him over someone like Jaylon Tyson, who plays a similar role offensively as Tristan but has shot the absolute cover off the ball on a similar shot diet.
Still, I very much admire what Da Silva has brought to Orlando on both ends of the floor and expect him to eventually end up as a lottery guy in redrafts of the 2024 class, as I had him projected before that draft on my board. Useful wings with size who can dribble, pass, shoot, and defend to varying degrees are required to win meaningful basketball games in the NBA today.
Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons
Over the summer, it appeared that Ron Holland was ready to take a massive leap forward as an outside shooter. The mechanics I saw at Summer League looked much snappier on the rise and follow-through, much more fluid and in one motion. He was nailing jumpers from all over the floor in Las Vegas, which really impacted the game on offense when coupled with his dynamic open-court athleticism that can hurt even the best of defenses that prioritize getting back in transition.
Unfortunately, we haven’t seen that offensive efficiency carry over this season, as he’s still sub-30% from three-point range and isn’t even shooting above 42% from the field overall. Few players in the league play harder than Holland does on both ends of the floor, but there’s a reason why he hasn’t had a more consistent role for the Detroit Pistons this year, a team that’s looking to make major noise in the Eastern Conference.
Without Holland’s ability to hit shots at a consistent rate or offer any reliable offensive presence in the halfcourt, his projection becomes trickier in a league that very much matters on the margins. Any weak link can be exploited by the best defenses, and right now, it’s too easy for defenders to play off Holland and let him take the corner three as many times as he wants—with mixed results coming from those looks.
If defenses give Holland a runway, or don’t get back on the break, he’s still an electric finisher that can put guys on a highlight reel in a hurry. He’s so exciting to watch, and really hounds guys on defense to the point where his gambles can turn into some awesome deflections and transition runouts.
Still, the Pistons need Holland to be more than just a transition threat and steals artist. His growth as an executor in the halfcourt is critical to his long-term NBA success. He has all of the tools and motor attributes to blossom into a bona fide star in the league. How quickly he’s able to grow into a more reliable offensive option remains to be seen.
Pelle Larsson, Miami Heat
The NBA Draft is often viewed as an event where the players in the lottery determine the fates of NBA franchises for years to come. And to a large extent, that’s absolutely true in terms of the true difference makers across the league.
But the franchises that know how to find value later in the first round and into the second are able to win on some important margins that can provide valuable depth for extended runs in the regular season and even the playoffs. Those margins matter a great deal, and they’re why the Miami Heat have been so successful as an organization for over two decades.
Pelle Larsson is another example of Miami winning on those margins, as he’s outplayed his second-round draft slot as a do-it-all role player for the Heat. Outside of on-ball volume, Larsson has contributed in every other area of the game. Larsson has defended well on and off the ball, he’s added real playmaking value in a secondary/tertiary capacity, and he’s knocked down open shots and attacked closeouts well when the ball has swung back around to him.
Before the draft, Larsson reminded me a lot of Christian Braun. And while Larsson is two years older than Braun was during his sophomore NBA season, their stat lines and overall impact metrics are eerily similar at this point in their NBA careers.
I’m not saying Larsson is as good a player and will be as good as Braun, but that type of glue guy is what every NBA front office should be willing to take a swing on earlier in the draft than the second round. Larsson looks the part of a productive role player for years to come in the league, and someone who is going to get a pretty decent second contract when the time comes.
Cam Spencer, Memphis Grizzlies
I’ve taken way too long to write words about Cam Spencer, but this was the perfect opportunity to do so because this dude has been a beacon of efficiency off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies.
I remember watching him live at Rutgers with fellow No Ceilings scout Corey Tulaba, and having conversations about his game with Maxwell Baumbach. Both saw value in Spencer’s game as a caretaker who could shoot the cover off the ball and was a real shit stirrer of a competitor.
At first, I didn’t see a real-deal NBA prospect, but kudos to both of them for bringing me around before he really exploded onto the scene at UConn as an impact transfer. After that run in the Big East and NCAA Tournament, it was pretty clear to all that Spencer at minimum deserved to be on a Two-Way, and that’s exactly what happened.
Fast forward to today, and Spencer has been one of the best guys off the bench for the Grizzlies, doing all of the same things he did in college. He can shoot off the catch, on the move, and has been an awesome pseudo-backup point guard for Memphis. His vision, timing, and anticipation working and making quick decisions off secondary actions are awesome, and the exact kind of processing guys need when coming into the league.
Spencer may not be taking over every game singlehandedly as a shot maker, but he’s done his part as a lethal three-point shooter and timely mover of the ball in the halfcourt. I wouldn’t rule out seeing Spencer in a future sophomore ranking, as his play this year has been brilliant. Expect to see more from Spencer for years to come.
Daniss Jenkins, Detroit Pistons
We’re a few weeks removed from the Daniss Jenkins experience erupting across the NBA, as he’s come back down to Earth over his last five games.
But it’s worth mentioning once more just how awesome it was to see Jenkins impact the game offensively the way that he did for the Detroit Pistons while several key perimeter players missed time. Jenkins didn’t just fill in and put the Pistons through the motions. Detroit was winning games, and Jenkins was a reason why when he was in that starting role.
Jenkins had several games where he went off as a scorer, but also balanced the table for everyone else as a playmaker. Jenkins has that craft as a pick-and-roll guard. He knows how to keep defenders on his hip, change speeds, and find gaps in the defense to pull up for open mid-range looks, or kick out to open shooters depending on how the defense reacts. He also has the ball fakes and handles you’d want out of a guard that does a lot of his on-ball damage getting downhill in some capacity.
Just as importantly to Jenkins’s success, he was hitting catch-and-shoot jumpers once he got off the rock and it swung back around to him. That ability to score from all three levels really helped alleviate pressure off other players who aren’t generally high in the scoring pecking order for the Pistons.
Jenkins is still a backup point guard in the NBA, but having the capability to serve as a winning spot starter is what separates those types of players from actually sticking in the league for an extended period of time, rather than fizzling out after the quick spotlight has shifted back to the normal star players.
I’m not of the belief that Jenkins’s run was a flash in the pan. He should continue to get opportunities and find himself as a backup guard in the league. Guard play is as important as ever, especially given the fact that NBA defenses are loaded with length and size on the perimeter, shrinking the court and often taking away easy gaps for ball handlers to blow through. Jenkins doesn’t have a blazing first step, but he takes care of the ball and has the moves and countermoves to catch defenders off guard and cut through those gaps without coughing it up on a turnover.
Those guys are as valuable as ever to have around to be able to step in for rotation minutes, meaning I would expect Jenkins to keep getting opportunities for Detroit as the season progresses.