NBA Draft Lottery: Power Rankings of Chaos
Introduce a little anarchy...The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is here. Let's break down some potential "chaos" for the NBA teams hoping for good fortune.
NBA fan bases invested in today’s lottery are all going through the same experience. You probably woke up today without the need for an alarm clock. You’ll find yourself pacing around the room, frequently checking the time throughout the day. You might have even noticed that your appetite isn’t the same as it usually is.
The fate of your team’s future lands in the hands of an individual who is conducting a random lottery.
In 1985, the National Basketball Association announced they were making a change.
The league would introduce a “lottery” system, which was described as a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. The NBA would continue to tinker with their system over the years, including in 1987 when only the first three picks were determined by the lottery. The following teams would select in reverse order of their record from the previous season.
Throughout the years, the lottery has drawn plenty of buzz in the basketball world. We’ve had eye-opening results and plenty of fans that get their conspiracy hats going each year (shoutout “Frozen Envelope”). Now, we find ourselves with a system that has some regularity to it.
14 picks.
One miserably excruciating commercial break.
One lottery winner.
If you’re a die-hard basketball fan, odds are you’ve danced with this demon. The day of the Lottery brings a bundle of excitement and nerves for fans throughout the league. After a year of hardship, you finally get to see if this is the moment when your favorite team starts to turn things around.
Each year, we have a trio of teams that are expected to have the best possible chance to take home the number one selection. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets all find themsleves at the top with 14.0%. In the last five lottery’s, a team with 14.0% has won the top overall selection four times. Last year, the Atlanta Hawks won the first selection despite having just 3.0% chance.
While we pay close attention to the teams that have the best odds, there’s always a chance for some madness to happen tonight.
There’s always a chance to…introduce a little anarchy.
One of my favorite things to do each year is to dream about the possibilities of the Lottery turning into an absolute madhouse. This year, I thought it’d be fun to put those thoughts together for a segment.
Welcome to the NBA Draft Lottery: Power Rankings of Chaos.
#1 Dallas Mavericks
Currently Slotted: 11th
Chances at #1: 1.8%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: Never
We’re all laughing at just the thought of this. But it’s not a fun type of laughter. It’s a laugh that suddenly turns into a deep concern, leading to wondering if it’s a realistic possibility. The conspiracy theorists involving the NBA Draft Lottery are reaching Defcon 1 levels when it comes to this one. After trading away Luka Doncic, the basketball world is still months later trying to figure out what the grand plan for the Mavericks moving forward might be. GM Nico Harrison has somehow found a way to create a new level when it comes to having a “hot seat.” While the NBA Draft Lottery is always suspenseful, no noise in the world will be as silent as when Mark Tatum comes up to reveal the logo for the 11th overall pick.
If it’s not the Dallas Mavericks, there might be a worldwide earthquake from every basketball fan in the world flipping their desk at the same time.
#2. San Antonio Spurs (x2)
Currently Slotted: 8th, 14th (via ATL)
Chances at #1: 7.7% (combined)
TImes They’ve Won The Lottery: 3
2023 (Victor Wembanyama, 14.0% odds)
1997 (Tim Duncan, 21.6%)
1987 (David Robinson, 14.2%)
Lottery fans around the world are all terrified of a specific event taking place on May 12th. That event would be heading to the infamous and excruciating commercial break before the reveal of the Top 3 with the San Antonio Spurs still in the running for the top pick. San Antonio has a freak of nature in their possession in Victor Wembanyama. They also look to have a rising star on the perimeter in Stephon Castle. The pieces are quickly falling into place for the Spurs, who are armed with two picks in the lottery this year.
Thanks to the Dejounte Murray trade, the Spurs also have Atlanta’s unprotected pick, which is currently slotted at 14th. That means if the Spurs aren’t shown right away, fireworks could start going off rather quickly. If the Spurs do get some lottery luck and land the top overall selection, it would be a terrifying world if the likes of Wembanyama, Castle, and Cooper Flagg shared the court at the same time. Just writing that sentence sent shivers down my spine.
#3. Philadelphia 76ers
Currently Slotted: 5th
Chances at #1: 10.5%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 3
2016 (Ben Simmons, 25.0%)
1996 (Allen Iverson, 33.73%)
1986 (Brad Daugherty, 14.29% *traded to CLE)
ANARCHY ALERT:
If TWO teams somehow jump…Oklahoma City would get the pick as it’s 1-6 Protected.
The city of Philadelphia has a little saying that has become famous. “Philly vs Everybody.” Well, that saying is going to be loud on the night of the NBA Draft Lottery. Respectfully to 76ers fans (I said respectfully), no other fan base wants to see the 76ers win the lottery. Philadelphia had one of the weirdest seasons in recent memory. They were crowned a NBA title contender last offseason after adding Paul George. Then the injuries started to pile up, and Joel Embiid continued to be sidelined.
That resulted in the 76ers quickly heading into the Front Office before emphatically slamming the “tank immediately” button. In all seriousness, as insane as it would be…Philadelphia landing the top pick would be a chaotic ride. The 76ers would land a “holy crap” type of prospect who could make an immediate impact from the jump in Cooper Flagg. If the health could get on track for this roster, Flagg would be a dream come true for 76ers fans.
#4. Houston Rockets
Currently Slotted: 8th
Chances at #1: 3.8%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 1
2002 (Yao Ming, 8.9%)
The Houston Rockets have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024-25 NBA regular season. After building throughout the draft, as well as some strategic additions in free agency, Houston exploded this year when it came to taking a big step forward in their trajectory. The Rockets have some rising superstars on their roster. Alperen Sengun continues to be an underrated stud and Amen Thompson is a terrifying talent with a juicy ceiling to dream about.
Houston is in a perfect situation. They have a roster that is loaded with young talent battling for minutes. Their third overall pick couldn’t even find consistent minutes as a rookie, and that wasn’t any slander on Reed Sheppard’s ability. That means that Houston is playing with house money when it comes to the 2025 draft lottery.
The Rockets will be a bit of a wildcard in this lottery. They have the Phoenix Suns unprotected pick. With plenty of buzz surrounding a potential Kevin Durant trade, we are sure to hear this pick thrown around in plenty of trade machine proposals.
But, if Houston gets some lottery luck…this could get terrifying. What if the Rockets somehow jump into the Top 3 of this class? Even more frightening, there is the prospect that they end up with Cooper Flagg…goodness, it’s scary to even type.
Not only would Cooper Flagg be a serious lightning bolt of electricity to this roster, but Houston jumping into the Top 3 alone would give them a serious asset to potentially take another leap forward with their trajectory.
#5. Sacramento Kings
Currently Slotted: 13th (to Atlanta, 1-12 Protected)
Chances at #1: 0.8%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 1
1989 (Pervis Ellison, 11.11%)
I BET YOU HAVEN’T BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF ANARCHY.
Can you imagine how insane this would be? Think of all the teams you are considering as wild cards to jump on the night of the Lottery…I bet the Sacramento Kings have not come into your thought process once.
The Kings are currently slotted to send this pick to the Atlanta Hawks. It’s currently slotted 13th overall, and the protections are 1-12. That means there’s a heavy expectation that the Hawks will secure this pick rather quickly once the lottery starts.
But…what if the absolute madness happens? After a complete nightmare of a season, can you imagine if the Kings are somehow in the Top 3 as we head into commercial break?
I mean, it’s not going to happen.
Right? RIGHT?!
#6. Brooklyn Nets
Currently Slotted: 6th
Chances at #1: 9.0%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 3
2017 (Markelle Fultz, 25.0% *Pick was owned By BOS, traded to PHI)
2000 (Kenyon Martin, 4.4%)
1990 (Derrick Coleman, 16.67%)
Some might be a little surprised to see the Brooklyn Nets a bit higher on the Power Rankings of Chaos. But let me flow for a bit so you understand why this could be a little crazy.
Brooklyn is currently set to have four selections in the first round. They’ve also got the 36th pick, which always could be some intriguing value. With a roster that needs a complete surplus of talent, Brooklyn should be one of the most active teams in terms of building through the draft. This is why you made all of those trades to acquire so much future draft capital.
Let’s say that Brooklyn pulls a rabbit out of a hat on the night of the Lottery. If they land Cooper Flagg, not only are they landing an immediate building block, but they also have the draft capital to target strategic pieces to surround Flagg with right away. In terms of building an identity, it’d go a long way for Brooklyn for obvious reasons.
Then comes the other theory of madness. There’s been plenty of buzz surrounding Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and…well…every single NBA team. (It’s Giannis, yes your team should be interested). If Brooklyn somehow lands number one, could it entice the Nets to try to at least dangle a chest of picks to pair a superstar alongside Flagg immediately?
Odds are probably not, but oh man, can you imagine the talkshow segments that would follow the next day?
Wait, delete that last part. What have I done…
#7. Portland Trail Blazers
Currently Slotted: 10th
Chances at #1: 3.7%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 1
2007 (Greg Oden, 5.3%)
I find myself always rooting for fan bases inside the lottery. The truth is, ever since we’ve started No Ceilings, we’ve gotten pretty close with specific fan bases each year. While there are plenty of teams ahead that I would love to see land the top overall selection, there’s an absolute wild card that would generate some serious excitement in the NBA world.
What if the damn Portland Trail Blazers won the lottery?
If you didn’t watch the Blazers last year, you’re missing out on something special. This Portland team took a massive leap forward this year. I’m a big believer that there’s a specific process or stepping stones that you have to reach when it comes to a rebuild.
First, you’ve got to build your roster with as much talent as possible. You don’t know your identity yet, so you need to just put together a roster with upside before you start to figure out the direction of the team.
Second, once you have that roster coming together, they have to figure out how to stick with the big dogs/ win the scrappy games. Once you get over that second stepping stone, you’re taking a serious step in the right direction. Portland was a team that was battling with playoff-caliber teams throughout the year. After winning 21 games in 2023-24, they finished this season at 36-46.
If the Blazers shocked the world and won the Lottery, you can argue that Flagg would be the final piece of the puzzle. Portland has done a great job building throughout the draft in recent years. They’ve got rising talent such as Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. Scoot Henderson is right on track and in line for a potentially big leap forward in Year Three—not to mention the amount of assets they still have on the roster. A lottery jump could make things interesting in a hurry for Portland fans.
#8. New Orleans Pelicans
Currently Slotted: 4th
Chances at #1: 12.5%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 2
2019 (Zion Williamson, 6.0%)
2012 (Anthony Davis, 13.7%)
I don’t know if there’s a more “anarchy” driven team in the Lottery than the New Orleans Pelicans. Hey Pelicans fans, as I’m writing this…I just want to extend a friendly hug to you for the season you just had to deal with. New Orleans has a roster that features plenty of interesting pieces. Unfortunately, they just experienced a season from hell, including a lengthy list of injuries.
New Orleans will be on everyone’s watch list this offseason. The roster could be completely different than what we are looking at today. You know what could immediately send that idea into overdrive? Landing the first overall selection.
If the Pelicans land number one, they have a serious dilemma on their hands. Do you give the Zion experiment one final attempt alongside another rising superstar in Flagg? If you do so, do you risk the idea of having any potential market for trade value? Do you do a back flip in the War Room and overhaul the roster while quickly starting the next movement of your organization’s future with Flagg and some awesome assets surrounding him?
If New Orleans did somehow land Flagg and decide to overhaul the roster, starting out with Flagg, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones and Yves Missi is a HECK of a start…
#9. Chicago Bulls
Currently Slotted: 12th
Chances at #1: 1.7%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 2
2008 (Derrick Rose, 1.7%)
1999 (Elton Brand, 15.7%)
Chicago Bulls fans, let me get you in your feelings for a bit. Imagine all of the years in which you had to deal with the “#7” when it comes to the lottery. What if all of those times were setting you up for one more shot at glory?
In the history of the Chicago Bulls, when it comes to the NBA Draft Lottery, they’ve only been slotted ninth (1.7%) one time…
That resulted in the Chicago Bulls jumping up to the number one pick, which ended up with the team selecting Derrick Rose.
Chicago continues to be a team that is battling to get over the hump and take the next step forward. While the odds might be stacked against the Bulls, they’ve been in this position before. Could Chicago get another miracle on lottery night?
#10. Toronto Raptors
Currently Slotted: 7th
Chances at #1: 7.5%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 1
2006 (Andrea Bargnani, 8.8%)
Much like the Bulls (above), the Toronto Raptors have become a fascinating wild card in the Lottery. Toronto looked poised to be one of the top teams in the ranks. That was until the team decided to overachieve and accomplish the opposite of “tanking.” The good news, Raptors fans, is that you’re still in a spot to have a legit chance to make a climb in the ranks.
The last time the Toronto Raptors had the seventh slot before the lottery, they ended up moving up to the fourth pick (2021), which landed them Scottie Barnes.
Toronto looks to have the pieces in place to potentially take a nice step forward this upcoming season. If they could get some luck, inserting Cooper Flagg, or anyone in the Top 3, would give this organization a jolt of energy for the foreseeable future.
#11. Charlotte Hornets
Currently Slotted: 3rd
Chances at #1: 14.0%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 1
1991 (Larry Johnson, 10.61%)
It seems as if everyone in the world is ruling out the Charlotte Hornets on the night of the lottery. Conspiracy theorists are probably twisting their mustaches with this one. “How could the NBA let the Hornets win the lottery?” Well, I’ll go to bat for you, Hornets fans.
Why can’t Charlotte land the top selection? The Hornets look like a team that is just begging to find “the guy” to insert alongside some fascinating pieces. Charlotte has a number of intriguing assets on their roster, including LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Dalton Knecht, Mark Williams, and last year’s lottery selection Tidjane Salaun. Landing one of the Top 3 selections alone would give the Hornets another tremendous asset to build with.
If Charlotte can shock the world tonight, landing a player like Cooper Flagg would be the ingredient that gets things rolling in the kitchen. Flagg’s two-way upside, alongside the playmaking of Ball and the offensive firepower of Miller, would give the Hornets an exciting trio of players to move forward with.
#12. Washington Wizards
Currently Slotted: 2nd
Chances at #1: 14.0%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: 2
2010 (John Wall, 10.3%)
2001 (Kwame Brown, 15.7%)
As an honorary Washington Wizards fan, it brings me great pride to write this blurb. Wizards fans, what a season you just had. Yes, you read that last sentence correctly. Not only do the Wizards find themselves in a great position to land one of the top picks in a loaded class, but Washington did something that a lot of rebuilding teams don’t have the luxury to do…
They let their young pieces from last year get a bundle of experience with playing time. The Wizards had a heck of a draft haul last year with the likes of Alex Sarr, Carlton “Bub” Carrington, and Kyshawn George. They also did a tremendous job of acquiring some future draft capital at the deadline, as well as an exciting young talent in AJ Johnson.
The message is clear with the Wizards, as they are building for the future and taking a route to build throughout the draft. If Washington can pull this one off, it’d be a serious shift in the right direction quickly for a franchise that is quickly on the rise.
These ain’t the same Washington Wizards.
#13. Utah Jazz
Currently Slotted: 1st
Chances at #1: 14.0%
Times They’ve Won The Lottery: Never
The Utah Jazz are in pole position for the night of the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. For a team that continues to add a surplus of young talent, the hope is that the Jazz can start to form an “identity” with some luck tonight.
Utah has been patient with their “rebuild”. They have continued to let the draft fall into their laps, while taking some high upside pieces. Plenty of teams try to speed up their rebuild with moving assets and future capital. Others, play the long game and stress patience with the development of their talent. Utah looks to be playing the waiting game, but this is the year in which things can start to get interesting for this organization.
If Utah lands the number one pick, it would be a monster get for the Jazz organization. Flagg would step in and be a player that could immediately make an impact on both sides of the ball, while raising the ceiling of the teams future. Utah has been adding assets over the years. Landing the number one pick could start to get the engines turning in a hurry when it comes to forming the identity of this franchise.
nailed it!
Wow