Your favorite NBA team’s clock is ticking.
I’ve tried to figure out the right words to start this one out, but I continue to go back and forth about the angle. Instead, I think pouring it all out makes the most sense.
Let me give you a little background about myself to steer you down this road.
Setting the Scene
I was born and raised in California, but I grew up as a degenerate Boston Celtics fan.
Yes, due to recent events…you probably all just let out a chuckle after reading that previous sentence.
I first fell in love with basketball while watching old videos of the 1980s Celtics. When some kids were getting bedtime stories about Michael Jordan. I was rewinding VHS tapes with my old man, watching Larry Bird steal the ball in the ‘87 Eastern Conference Finals. This wasn’t just an ordinary type of fandom. It was something that became everything when it came to growing up in my household. My old man bleeds green. An hour-long phone call to catch up on life usually consisted of 55 minutes of Celtics basketball talk. Every single current player on the roster would somehow get a player comparison to a pro from 30 years prior.
Let’s fast forward to today. Before you start to come to conclusions… no, this isn’t a Jaylen Brown therapy article, but let’s go ahead and get that out of the way. I echo the same feelings that most Boston Celtics fans feel. When I got the Shams notification, I felt like my phone had burned my hand, and I threw it down on the bed in disgust.
But after days of pondering what the hell just happened…a bigger reality hit me.
The Paths to Contention
Since starting No Ceilings, my fandom has had to take a bit of a backseat. I still monitor the Celtics closely, but I try to keep the psychotic fan locked away to a respectable level. I’ve always joked with my team that once the playoffs start, the switch is flipped, and the fandom starts to crawl out of my skin once again. Covering the draft year-round has made me invest in other fan bases as much as my own. I constantly find myself interacting with fans, going on the specific podcasts for each team, trying to give any listeners the idea that hope for their team can be found this year. Personally, it’s been the best transaction I could ever make, and I know the entire No Ceilings team feels the same way.
That’s what basketball is.
That’s what being a fan of an NBA team is.
Every single basketball fan has been a GM in their own mind. If our favorite team wasn’t good enough, we try to fix the problem in our own heads. What free agents are on the horizon? How much cap space do we have? What does this year’s draft look like? Could our team make a couple of trades and swing things in the right direction?
In order to build a contender in the NBA, there’s always been a three-way stop with roads that have various mileage on them. Teams have had the ability in NBA history to build throughout the draft, free agency, or trades. Some of those roads require some strategic planning to try to speed up the journey. More often than not, luck is required. You need to hit gold in one area before piecing it together in others. If you can do that, without any hiccups along the way…your team starts to see an opportunity arise. A light in the darkness suddenly shows you your window to contend for the biggest prize. From there, the question has always been…how long can you keep that window open?
Although there have been numerous paths to build a contender in the NBA, there has been one path that has been incredibly special for those lucky fan bases: building through the draft.
It’s the most difficult path because it requires the most patience of all. There was an era of NBA basketball that focused on making this a priority. You’d see franchises not just draft players but also invest in humans. There wasn’t an hourglass that said if you don’t show results this quickly, it’s time to cut the cord. Instead, the teams with patience gave the opportunity for young teenagers to patiently find a way to build some confidence, which has always been the golden key to unlocking the developmental path.
As fans, that’s the best feeling in the world. Not only did your team draft a young talent, but you got to see them grow in front of your own eyes. Each year of their young careers, you’ve been waiting for the “switch” to be flipped and prove that they are about to fulfill the potential that you bought in on early. Once you start to notice that the game is slowing down for that player, you realize that your team might finally be onto something. As fans, we all have just wanted to see our teams keep the young talent long enough to see them shine when the spotlight is the brightest.
The Clock is Ticking
I was lucky enough to be able to do that very thing with the Celtics drafting Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The early years weren’t always awesome. I watched a #3 overall pick average 6.6 points per game during his rookie year. A year later, after the Celtics went all-in during the offseason, I watched a potential title contender’s window get slammed shut in the first quarter of the first game of the season, after Gordon Hayward’s injury.
But that injury brought forth an early opportunity for another 3rd overall pick in Jayson Tatum. My team’s patience allowed a promising second-year jump from Jaylen Brown. Then, over the next six years, I got to watch them continue to take serious strides toward climbing the mountain top in the Eastern Conference. It seemed as if each year, the duo would suffer crushing defeat after crushing defeat. Despite rumors floating every offseason, Boston kept the duo together, determined to see it through. They built through the draft, stayed patient to keep the band together, and found ways to travel down the other paths to build a legit contender.
There was nothing better as a fan than seeing “your guys” finally be able to put it together and win at the highest level. You’ve stuck with them since the beginning, and here it is: them getting over the hump and becoming NBA champions.
But it seems as if those days are running out.
The NBA has made changes to the salary cap, as basketball fans should know very well. At first, like the majority of fans, the changes to the cap seemed to be a foreign language. There are so many brilliant minds in the NBA world that specialize in capology, meaning that we had to quickly navigate to them to have it “translated.” Don’t be afraid to admit it: it’s intimidating. It takes a lot of patience to break down and completely understand it. Honestly, it usually takes talking to an expert to have us remove the idea of having headaches
But this year…on July 1st… it started to hit me like a hammer.
All of the clouds started to clear up.
All of the roads led to a one-way street.
Our favorite team’s clock is ticking.
Analytics Are Good. Deal With It.
Front offices have become smarter than ever. If you don’t like analytics, then figure it out, because it’s here to stay. The war on film versus analytics has been something of a ridiculous recent controversy. You need both to evaluate this game properly. You can’t do one without the other, and you can’t master the art of scouting without both.
Throughout the different areas of the NBA, that realization has started to hit teams harder than ever. Analytics have continued to develop in waves over the eras of basketball. They’re not going anywhere; if anything, they’re only going to continue to get more intense. That should be a good thing. Understand the recent trend and draft history, and you’ll notice a serious trend when it comes to the ability of teams to bring home strong hauls on draft nights.
In recent history of the NBA, teams were willing to attach picks without pause in order to acquire the missing piece of the puzzle. But that direction has started to shift. The reason why you might ask? The fear of the second apron.
Now, teams are understanding how valuable every NBA draft pick is—not just first-round picks, but second-round selections as well. You have to find any possible way to improve the margins. It could be strengthening the end of the rotation, free agent signings, developing two-way players AND keeping them, or finding second rounders who give you an opportunity to slow the clock down. Even if it’s the smallest amount, you’re seeing a complete league shift when it comes to the importance of depth. We all grew up watching the NBA Draft, and it seemed like there was always a portion of the night in which picks would go up for sale. Teams would basically be “over it” and asking “who wants to buy this?” The second round seemed like a flurry of stash candidates who most likely wouldn’t end up coming overseas. At the same time, though, the league has sent out a message. One loud warning to all teams that are trying to win a championship. Your window to win a title might be open, but it could shut just as fast…the clock is ticking.
After the title in 2024, it looked like the Celtics could contend for years to come. Two of the league’s top wings, arguably entering their primes, looked poised to be under team control for a lengthy amount of time. At the time, every Celtics fan would have told you their championship window was as open as possible. But injuries, aging players, and future salary constraints saw that window close just as fast. Boston dealt with injuries, players aging rapidly, and a nightmare conclusion featuring their superstar tearing his Achilles. That’s how quickly life can change in the NBA. One year, the window is propped open. The next? It’s suddenly slammed shut.
In previous eras, that might have simply meant: OK, let’s hold on to our key pieces. Figure out a plan to either build in the draft or open up some free agency possibility. Then reload and get back on track.
But that’s not what the new CBA has in mind. Instead, we’re already starting to see a trend in which teams are trying to escape the late realization of facing the guillotine. Teams are operating in fear. Spending top dollar might get you some of the best talent. But eventually, it’s going to also bring you the biggest headaches.
Teams are having to pivot and realize that depth might have to be more important than simply star power. That could lead to shipping stars out of town…including some who have been around for a long time.
The Second Apron Fears No One
I’m going to break down some specific rosters and cap percentages that paint the potential “dead-end” down the road.
But here’s a little appetizer for you to get familiar with to start. Each year, the NBA releases projections for teams regarding the cap increase. In order to prevent spikes, the most current CBA agreed to have a bit of a “smooth” cap growth maximum of 10% each year. Now stay with me. Here’s where it gets scary.
Due to some underwhelming local TV deals, the cap for the upcoming 2026-27 season is projected to go up by just 6.7%, which is slightly lower than expected. As of now, the cap is projected to increase by 5.5% for the 2027-28 season. (Per Mike Vorkunov, The Athletic)
That means that any potential “emergency” breathing room for high-salaried teams just got even tougher. If you were somehow “banking” on that life preserver for the upcoming years, chances are…you’re going to be in trouble. Now, there are still a lot of brilliant minds around the league that specialize in this, who have most likely understood the projections and how to prepare for this. But it’s one thing to be prepared and another to realize…alright, now we’ve got to dance with this nightmare.
I said it at the beginning of this piece, and I mean it: this isn’t me venting about the Celtics.
This is me trying to paint a picture for every single NBA fan base out there. As I write this right now, we’ve seen plenty of young teams start the rebuild and understand what lies ahead. They’re building throughout the draft. They’re strategically adding talented pieces, trying to keep and develop their own young talent for years to come. But what happens when that talent, all of a sudden, starts to find their groove? What happens if they reach their potential and sign that big contract to reward their development? That first contract extension is now proving to be the start of the clock. You only have so much time before the following contract, which could shockingly be the nail in the coffin for your franchise’s future.
But hey, I told you this wasn’t going to be a Celtics vent. So let’s look around the league.
Take a look at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Less than a year ago, the Thunder were NBA champions, and many thought they couldn’t be touched. They had a young roster that was insanely deep. It looked as if OKC was going to be a potential dynasty, something we arguably haven’t seen since the Golden State Warriors run from 2015-2022. OKC’s roster, paired with ridiculous draft capital, had them positioned to be multiple title contenders for years to come.
Admit it: after they won their first championship, it seemed as if fans were wondering if anyone could even touch OKC. The Thunder looked poised to repeat, even getting off to a remarkable 24-1 start this year. Eventually, injuries crept into the conversation, as well as the reality of how hard it is to repeat for any franchise. Despite those injuries, OKC would find itself one win away from another appearance in the NBA Finals. They fell short to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7, and obviously will be out for revenge next year.
In previous NBA years, we wouldn’t think much of it. A young team seemed to simply get hit with the injury bug at the worst time. It’s a reason why depth has become so important for teams. Not only do you need to be great throughout the regular season, but you also need to stay as healthy as possible throughout the postseason. But the difficult realization for Thunder fans is that the second apron fears no one.
Right now, OKC still has a good amount of time before things get shaky. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all locked up for the foreseeable future. This season, those three will combine to make up 74.7% of the cap. For the 2027-28 season, things start to get a little…interesting.
SGA will have his extension kick in, which will take his cap hold from 24.7% to 35.0%. Now, obviously, a player like SGA is worth that type of cap hit because he is one of the best players in the league. But that 10.3% jump is gigantic in the scheme of things. On top of that, Holmgren and J-Dub will see their cap hold jump by 0.7% each. Now, that might not sound like a lot…but any jump on top of an extension is getting you into shark-infested waters.
By the 2028-29 season, those three players will combine to make up 88.6% of the cap.
You can make an argument that the league still is giving some “benefits” to teams when it comes to dealing with this dilemma. You’re allowed to exceed the aprons, of course, if you’re re-signing your own players. You just have to convince the owner to sign a large check for the luxury tax and also have potential first round picks “frozen.”
Basically, what it comes down to is this. You draft well enough, and you have to pony up big extensions to keep that talent around. Once that first extension begins to kick in, your clock is officially running, because the next round of extensions could also result in your front office scrambling to find any way possible to start the clock over. You can get to the mountain top, but once you do…the second apron starts to lurk in the shadows. You can’t run or hide. Eventually, you’re going to have to face the music.
That’s where the fandom in me goes insane. Shouldn’t we be rewarding these franchises for developing and drafting these players? Should we be penalizing them for keeping players on the roster for years to come? Shouldn’t there be a reward for the fact that you’ve been able to find players in the draft, and keep them, while creating a contending team?
That’s the question I continue to wonder about moving forward right now. It seems as if that answer is no. The league right now is telling us they want variability. They want chaos. They want teams not to be stuck together for years to come, but how does that treat us as fans? It seems like the days of watching players stick around with your organization for their entire career are gone.
We had the era in which players were trying to team up with other superstars. The NBA quickly realized they needed to make some changes in order to stop superstars trying to navigate their way to team up with their friends. Insert this new CBA, which hopefully will be scrapped down the road, which instead told us now you can’t keep those players. Now you eventually might just have to get rid of them.
In a weird way, you can argue that the fans are being penalized. We can’t even find the capacity to get attached to players on our teams because the harsh reality is that they likely won’t be there long.
This isn’t just the Thunder, either.
Let’s talk about the New York Knicks!
They are coming off an unbelievable season. NBA champions: what a story of an incredible job of putting together an awesome roster that just from top to bottom was impressive.
But now…the clock’s ticking for Knicks fans, who might not want to agree to this. You just saw an example of it as fan favorite Mitchell Robinson is out the door, signing with the Boston Celtics. That’s the first domino that starts to paint an ugly future picture. Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be a looming free agent, with a player option for $61 million in 2027-28, which is set to be around 35.2% of the cap. Ownership clearly understands what it means to jump into the second apron. Every owner does right now; it is a death sentence for these teams. You can’t stay there. The moment you get there, you have to find a way to get out. You’re suddenly in the water with the sharks, and you’re trying to find a way to get back onto the boat.
So is the NBA telling the Knicks right now, you’ve got one more year before things start getting ugly? After putting together this awesome basketball roster, the NBA is telling Knicks fans its days are numbered?
The Denver Nuggets are dealing with this issue as we speak. Denver is preparing to have both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray make up 66.2% of the cap. The next three players on their roster are Aaron Gordon (19.4%), Cameron Johnson (14%), and Christian Braun (13.1%). Because of the limited space, Denver is now having to deal with figuring out whether to keep Peyton Watson or have to potentially move him. Watson is a perfect example of what we talked about earlier: a raw prospect when Denver drafted him, but they stressed patience to allow him to develop. Now, down the road, Denver might unfortunately have to move on despite Watson starting to put the pieces together.
Let’s say the Nuggets want to keep Watson right now. According to ESPN cap guru Bobby Marks, if the Nuggets wanted to keep Watson and they waived a player like Jonas Valanciunas, for example…
Signing Watson to a $25 million-per-year contract would result in a tax penalty of…
$177 million dollars.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Remember when teams would suddenly look like they were a potential dynasty, nd then every team would try to figure out a way to make a “better version” to take down the giant in the NBA? Dynasty seems like a funny word these days. Do teams even have the bandwidth to try to create a dynasty? Is the CAP preventing that idea from ever existing again?
Take a look at your favorite team. Not just the roster, look at the CAP percentages. We’re now telling teams that when they have two players who are adding up to more than 60% of the cap, they’re handcuffed. You don’t have the flexibility to make serious moves to improve your roster.
Fans want to watch their teams draft potential stars. Even more, there’s nothing more exciting for a fan than being with your guy from the beginning. Every fan base knows exactly what I’m saying. You’ve had a player throughout your fandom who has blossomed into something special. Most of the time, when that player has turned into a unique talent, the organization has realized it and rewarded them to keep them as part of your favorite team as a fan.
Now, it seems as if that road is as short as ever. One injury. One bad season…all of a sudden, you could see your name on the chopping block.
Changes need to be made. We need to figure out a way to reward these teams that have done a great job of acquiring talent and developing it. That answer won’t come overnight, but the clock should be ticking for the NBA as well. Not just for our favorite teams. You’re telling us that we can’t get attached anymore.
Once our teams arrive at the highest level, we can be stripped down just as fast.
And THAT is a problem.
Great Work Ruck
As you say ......one of the worst things is when owners decide they cannot afford to keep a championship roster together for another run .....this the historical foundation of the NBA ....or at least it used to be. Sorry state of affairs.