NBA: Reed Sheppard Is Lifting The Ceiling Of The Houston Rockets
Reed Sheppard's brilliant offensive play over the last few weeks is lifting the offensive ceiling of the Houston Rockets.
Reed Sheppard’s sophomore leap for the Houston Rockets is doing more than just putting him on the map as a real NBA player.
Since November 7th, when Sheppard started consistently getting 20+ minutes per game, Houston is 7-2. Sheppard has added a key missing ingredient for this team: shooting.
But just how good of a shooter has Sheppard been over the last month? And how has that success spilled over into the other areas of his game? We’re going to answer both of those questions, and paint a clear picture of how Sheppard has raised the ceiling of this Rockets team in a loaded Western Conference.
This isn’t a traditional “Morning Dunk” column off the holiday week, BUT there’s still an important story to cover in Sheppard’s emergence as Houston’s lead guard. Rookie Risers and Sophomore Standouts will be back next week, but for now, let’s cover one hell of a “Slam Dunk” in Reed Sheppard!
*All statistics referenced are as of 11/30/25 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference, Synergy Sports, Dunks and Threes, and Cleaning the Glass*
Coming out of Kentucky, Reed Sheppard was one of the most prolific shooting prospects I had ever evaluated in now 15 years of scouting for the NBA Draft.
He shot over 50% from deep on significant volume, and did so in a myriad of ways. The Wildcats ran him off ball screens, put him in pick-and-roll, and found him leaking out in transition. From the corners, above the break, it didn’t matter. Sheppard was lacing threes from all over the floor.
Fast forward to his rookie season with the Houston Rockets after being selected #3 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, and it didn’t go as many thought it could. Sheppard couldn’t find consistent playing time for a team looking to step forward into the playoff push in the Western Conference. He did play a few games in the NBA G League, and even started in a few contests where the Rockets were short-handed.
But for the most part, there was zero rhythm as to when he was going to get playing time, how many minutes were available, and what was going to be asked of him on the court.
Sheppard is about 6’3” as a guard, so the idea of putting him on the floor to JUST be a perimeter shooter wasn’t one I wanted to buy into before the draft. My philosophy with Sheppard was always that he needed to go into a situation where the team firmly believed in him as a lead guard and initiator of the offense. Otherwise, you can find spot-up and movement shooters who are 6’5” to 6’8” and stand to offer a bit more in terms of positional size and athleticism.
This season, however, a shift HAD to happen within the offense for Reed’s minutes. Fred VanVleet suffered a season-ending injury before the year even started. As of now, the Rockets have no contracts to trade that would actually be beneficial to move off of in order to find another guard. Nor are there other more enticing options on the roster outside of splitting reps with Amen Thompson.
Therefore, in order for Houston to stay in contention in the Western Conference, it would be up to Sheppard to step into, at a bare minimum, a super sixth-man role and knock it out of the park. Hitting shots and creating for others on offense, while doing enough to win his minutes on defense.
The good news is that all of those things have been happening, particularly on offense, over Houston’s last nine games. Sheppard is offering plenty of three-point shooting, crafty scoring inside the arc, and is generating enough steals and deflections to justify his minutes on the defensive end.
And to be clear, this team has always needed Reed’s best qualities on offense, even with a healthy VanVleet. Houston’s offense has gotten a lot of conversation early in the season because it’s unconventional as to what one would expect from a modern basketball team. The Rockets rely on offensive rebounding, interior scoring, and transition offense off layups and dunks. And with the addition of Kevin Durant, those long twos have some into play as some of his best shots late in the game.
Even though the Rockets sit at second in the league in three-point percentage, this team ranks dead last in the league in attempts per game. And to be honest, that’s actually a good thing that Houston doesn’t live or die behind the arc.
Winning the math battle is about making enough threes to combat high-powered offenses around the league, not just getting up bad looks to give oneself a better chance at knocking down a certain total. Teams play at fast paces and chuck transition threes all the time, but not all of those teams are generating quality looks and actually rank high in terms of offensive rating.
But because the Rockets prioritize GOOD three-pointers, be it off open looks in transition, or off kickouts, and even off of offensive rebounds, Houston can stay in the game despite not prioritizing the three in terms of volume.
That’s where the best of Sheppard comes in. He can knock down quick shots off the catch, relocate without the basketball, and is currently knocking in 44% of his threes off the dribble. That utility around guys like Durant, Thompson, and Alperen Sengun has brought the offense together like beautiful string music. That doesn’t happen, however, without Sheppard being a much more improved threat with the ball in his hands, getting downhill and making plays for others.
Because Reed has improved significantly as a pick-and-roll player this season, in terms of efficiency, turnover rate, and volume, it’s opened up the rest of his game and has made defenses think twice in terms of how he needs to be played in different coverages. Sheppard has done a much better job at making the right passing reads if defenses completely sell out on the ball screen, or if one defender has fought over the top of the screen to body him up, he’s taken angles and gotten to spots where he can keep that man on his hip and create a good look in the paint.
In games last season where Sheppard struggled, he looked outmatched from a size perspective. If anyone taller and longer than him challenged his shot attempts off the bounce, Sheppard struggled to adjust because he wasn’t utilizing his body to shield the ball, or taking angles that afforded him ways to get to different balls and pump fakes.
I’m not one to be overly critical when evaluating guards who don’t attempt a significant portion of their shots at the rim. Some guards, like Sheppard, are very self-aware and choose to bring the ball back out or make the right read if a good attempt at the basket isn’t there. But I DO CARE about how often a player can touch the paint, because it’s the only way to consistently collapse and displace defenders in order to create for others. Sheppard is getting two feet in the paint at a much better rate this season, and Houston’s offense is benefiting greatly from him doing so.
You’re seeing more of what Sheppard can do as a scorer inside the arc this season, and he’s kept defenders guessing once he catches the ball, even on a quick action that’s separate from high pick-and-roll. He’s so much of a threat to go up with a shot that defenders try to anticipate his directional movement immediately off the catch. Sheppard has been much more patient in terms of splitting back the opposite direction and looking to get downhill instead of always forcing a contested attempt from range. The freedom that Houston has given Sheppard to operate with the ball in his hands this season has helped him grow exponentially in such a short amount of time.
And a fully optimized Sheppard is such a dangerous player because he’s an all-world shooting prospect in the NBA. He’s becoming incredibly difficult to guard one-on-one because of the different ways in which he can get his shot off and how great he’s been as a passer if any help comes his way. Defenses have to pay more attention to him, which is an issue because of how great the rest of his teammates are as finishers.
Between improved shooting, playmaking, ball control, and steal rate, Sheppard is stuffing the stat sheet and standing out in a big way analytically. I can’t recall an NBA leap so drastic in terms of Box Plus/Minus, but Sheppard has soared to a 7.3 BPM up from a -1.7 last season because of how well the team is winning his minutes on the floor and the impact he’s had.
With all of that said, there are still a few additional layers to unpack with Sheppard’s evaluation up to this point in the season. Has Sheppard raised the Rockets’ ceiling in the Western Conference with his brilliant play up to this point? Absolutely. But how much of that impact comes strictly from Reed knocking down shots at a seemingly “Excellent” rate no matter where you look on Synergy Sports?
That’s a more difficult question to answer. The short response is yes, his value is tied tremendously to his ability to knock down shots. That’s generally the case with most, if not all, offensively tilted guards. Few coaches are looking to a sub-6’5” guard and looking to them to carry a huge defensive burden. It’s great if said player can guard their position and hold their own in terms of activity level, rebounding rate, and deflections. But in terms of “star” guards serving as ball stoppers in today’s league? That’s not exactly the case, given the usage loads these players are taking on offensively.
And in Sheppard’s case, he isn’t carrying the same usage burden as a Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Maxey, Stephen Curry, or Luka Doncic. BUT the TYPES of shots and play types he’s most involved in are very similar to how teams have used guys like Maxey and Brunson when they’ve shared the court with other higher-usage options or ball handlers. That means there’s more room for opportunity on Sheppard’s plate offensively, only furthering his impact on the team as a whole so long as those shots keep falling.
I generally tend not to skew as heavily towards players whose games are tied solely to whether they can put the ball in the basket. Everyone has bad shooting nights, meaning they need to bring other qualities to the table. I’m encouraged by Reed, though, because of his effort defensively, quick hands, and improved vision, particularly as a transition passer. Sheppard is finding ways to impact the game without getting up a shot attempt every time he touches the ball, which is a far cry from where he was last season.
Every Houston Rockets fan should be thrilled by where Sheppard is currently in his development. Should this upward trajectory hold for Sheppard, he stands out as the clear lead guard of the future for this Rockets core because of how he can mesh and play off of the rest of the team’s established pieces. Thompson is an excellent cutter and live-dribble passer who can find Sheppard or sprint to the rim off the break or in the halfcourt, depending on where the defense is focused. Sengun is one of the best passers in the league, who is already developing a nice cadence with Sheppard in two-man situations. Durant can play off of anyone as one of the most lethal catch-and-shoot threats to ever set foot in the NBA.
And if any of those players are “feeling it” over the course of the game, Sheppard’s ability to hit shots from anywhere at almost any angle means he’s as good of a release valve as any for those other star talents. Sheppard doesn’t limit HOW an offense needs to operate, while also not forcing a team into building its scheme completely around him.
The best offenses in the NBA are operating with quick decision-making and plenty of player and ball movement. That requires players who can react fast, communicate well, and offer a blend of dribble, pass, and shoot equity to varying degrees. Sheppard checks all of those boxes offensively for the Rockets. If this team can keep winning games on the glass and finding ways to win Reed’s minutes defensively, then this offense is VERY real and stands to challenge the best teams in the NBA.
If you had asked me what I’d be looking for in Sheppard’s second NBA season, I would’ve said that I just wanted to see him getting consistent minutes with the team’s starters in staggered situations. Getting Reed on the floor was a clear first step in evaluating his talent and fit with this current roster. But to see him lighting it up from everywhere, making key decisions as a handler, and causing chaos as a steal artist defensively is above and beyond what I expected so early in his second season.
Sheppard was discussed as a special prospect coming out of college for a reason. Few players that I’ve seen before they made it to the NBA have had Sheppard’s combination of shooting touch, active hands, and processing ability. And that combination has blended beautifully in Houston.
Sheppard has, in fact, raised the ceiling of this Rockets team, and I have one lesson for draft evaluators to take away from his ascent: If a prospect tells you they’re special, BELIEVE THEM—even if it means practicing some patience with a player’s transition to the league.