Nehemiah Turner is One of the Most Unique Transfers in the Country | Breakout Candidate
Nehemiah Turner finished his freshman season at Central Arkansas as one of the most productive bigs in the country. Now, the Minnesota transfer has a great chance to prove how good he can actually be.
Every draft cycle, a handful of players break free from the shadows and force their way into the spotlight. The fascination is typically with the one-and-done prospects, but we’re seeing the stigma associated with returning to school rapidly deteriorate as more prospects return to school to refine their games. While the top names often dominate early conversations, it’s the breakout candidates that can redefine the class. Thankfully, there’s an abundance of returning players who are primed for a breakout. One of the most unique breakout candidates for the 2026 NBA Draft is Minnesota transfer sophomore Nehemiah Turner.
Sometimes the transfer portal can produce some real gems, and Turner could be one of those. Turner is listed at 6’10” and 270 pounds for Minnesota and spent his freshman season at Central Arkansas. As a freshman, Turner averaged 8.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 blocks. Additionally, Turner had a minute share of just 45.5% but a usage of 26, a defensive rebounding rate of 21.4, an assist rate of 22, and a block rate of 8. The only other freshman to hit similar usage, rebounding, and assist marks was Cooper Flagg. By no means are they similar players; it’s just a fun coincidence. What is more interesting, though, is that upperclassmen like Nique Clifford, Oscar Cluff, Yaxel Lendeborg, Collin Murray-Boyles, Brooks Barnhizer, Danny Wolf, and Amari Williams also hit those thresholds (usage at least 20, defensive rebounding rate at least 20, and assist rate at least 20).
None of those season-long numbers for Turner are all that exciting, especially since he didn’t play much for most of the year. Why Turner is a fascinating breakout candidate, though, is due to what he did at the end of the season. From February 1st through the end of the year, Turner saw his minute share jump up to 69.9%. Along with that, he recorded a true shooting percentage of 64.2, a defensive rebounding rate of 21.3, an assist rate of 28, a block rate of 8.4, and a free throw rate of 66.1. Those are fantastic numbers, especially for a freshman. Now, the Big Ten is a totally different beast than the Atlantic Sun Conference. It’ll be a major leap in competition for Turner that could produce some fascinating results. There are two sides to that coin, though, so let’s take a look at what could go right and what could go wrong.
How Does It Go Right?
If Turner is really going to take a leap like his numbers suggest he could, he’s going to have to be the versatile, offensively focused big who was dominant down the stretch of last season. With his frame, Turner doesn’t struggle to move defenders. He should be able to handle the physicality well enough while also incorporating a bunch of his balletic footwork. As an interior scorer and play finisher, Turner showcased some incredibly fun skill and touch.
While Turner displayed a fun scoring package, there are still some things that he will need to improve a lot for that scoring ability to be viable in the Big Ten. First, Turner has to get more comfortable with his left hand. He’s ok finishing with it, but as you may have noticed, nearly all of his post moves resulted in a right-hand finish. His spin move is very fun, but when he spins to his right every time, it won’t take long for defenders to pick that up. By incorporating a few extra counter moves, Turner will be able to more effectively set up his right hand, keep defenders on their heels, and draw a ton of fouls. Second, Turner has to shoot it a little more. He doesn’t need to be a sniper from outside, but he needs to take more than 18 jumpers like he did last year. Even if he doesn’t shoot it at a prolific level, simply taking them will naturally pull defenders out more—which will open up driving and passing lanes. Turner’s mechanics are a little funky, but his touch is encouraging that he could at least be a somewhat acceptable low-volume shooter.
Turner also has a wonderful complementary offensive tool with his playmaking. Minnesota’s new coach, Niko Medved, didn’t have a big like Turner at Colorado State, but they had one of the better ball movement offenses in the country last season as they ranked 17th in total assists and 26th in assists per game. Having a 6’10” center in the middle of the floor who can also facilitate at a high level should fit right in with the offensive style that Medved wants to run. Turner has great timing, solid vision, and a good amount of creativity. He should be able to find cutters, kick out to shooters, and create for others from all three levels of the court.
If Turner builds on how he ended last season, he could be one of the more fun big men in the Big Ten. He has an encouraging foundation as a passer and interior scorer that gives him a great starting point. With a few subtle improvements to his shooting and finishing package, Turner could be a joy to watch. If he’s going to make a leap and replicate his impact from last year, it’s going to be as a unique offensive hub.
How Does It Go Wrong?
Unfortunately, there are a lot of outcomes that result in Turner struggling. The biggest concern is how, or if, his physicality and athleticism translate. You have noticed that Turner is a big dude. He has encouraging feet and strength, but he isn’t an explosive athlete and frankly needs to get in better shape. This could really limit him on defense.
Turner had some promising defensive metrics, but the tape from his freshman year was pretty rough. Turner has pretty good hands, which was the driving cause for any of his positive impact. When you look at how he worked within the scheme, though, it was an issue. Turner improved slightly as the season went on, but his defensive awareness, communication, and versatility were all lacking. He frequently got lost in space, exposed on the perimeter, and had to be essentially buried in the paint in a zone to survive.
Turner was ok when he didn’t have to leave the paint and was able to keep everything in front of him. When his responsibilities elevated at all, though, that’s where the issues quickly arose. There is a high probability that his defense could be a disaster against Big Ten schemes and athletes. Hopefully, the incremental improvements that Turner showed late in the year turn into a major leap this year, but it’ll take some time to prove that he can hold his own on that end of the court.
On top of the defensive concerns, there’s a very real possibility that Turner doesn’t grow into more than just a low-post scorer. That ability alone, especially combined with his passing, shouldn’t limit him from still being a productive college player. We see guys have prosperous college careers with that archetype all the time. However, if Turner doesn’t showcase some sort of perimeter offensive growth while also struggling on defense, the potential of being a draft sleeper may take a few more years.
Expectations
The expectations with Minnesota as a team are incredibly low for most people, as they turned over most of their roster and brought in a new coaching staff. However, this is an experienced coaching staff who have a pretty good record of getting the most out of their players, especially new transfers. Realistically, it’d take an incredible season for Turner to legitimately emerge as a potential candidate for the 2026 NBA Draft. He’d have to be an offensive monster while holding his own on defense. It’s a long shot. What isn’t a long shot, though, is him being an effective player who at least proves he belongs in a power conference. If Turner improved his conditioning and mobility over the summer, he could prove to be a highly versatile offensive weapon from the center spot. The 2026 draft may be a pipe dream, but this could be a huge opportunity for Turner to prove not only that he belongs in a power conference but also that he is a legitimate candidate for future drafts.