New Man on Campus: Cayden Boozer
Cayden Boozer knows how to run a beautiful offense, but is that enough for the Duke freshman to be a one-and-done point guard for the 2026 NBA Draft?
One of the easiest things to do with evaluations is to get overwhelmed by what a player can’t do. It’s an important part of the process, but it’s also crucial not to forget about what a player can do. One of the players who highlights this concept the most is potential 2026 NBA Draft prospect and Duke’s new man on campus, Cayden Boozer.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Boozer’s season goes and whether or not he’s a one-and-done college player. There are some very real areas for improvement, but something undeniable is that Boozer flat-out knows how to play. The “pure” point guard role is a dying breed, but it feels like that descriptor perfectly resembles Boozer’s game. There are drawbacks to that, but his feel for the game, processing speed, and IQ should allow him to run Duke’s offense at a very high level while consistently putting guys like Cam Boozer, Isaiah Evans, Darren Harris, and Nikolas Khamenia in position to succeed.
We’ll get into the situations where Boozer thrives shortly, but I want to address the areas for improvement first. I hate when evaluations stoop to “well if he shoots…”, but that’s unfortunately where Boozer’s current evaluation seems to reside. It is incredibly rare for guards to be non-shooters in today’s NBA, and I’m worried that Boozer could fall into that category.
At first glance, Boozer’s outside numbers don’t feel that bad as he shot 35.4% across 26 games for Columbus as a senior, which was up from 32.6% across 34 games as a junior, per Synergy. Now, those aren’t significant numbers, but we’ve seen worse. What’s more concerning, though, are the mechanics and the reluctance to shoot. Boozer only took 79 threes this season (3.03 per game), and 56 of them came off the catch. For reference, his brother took 115 attempts, Darius Acuff shot 31.9% on 116 attempts, and Labaron Philon shot 41% on 105 attempts as a senior at Link. Obviously, those aren’t one-for-one comparisons, but I’m just trying to provide a bit of context on how Boozer’s numbers compare.
The further we examine Boozer’s outside shooting numbers, the more concerning they become, given the nature of shooting being a mandatory skill set for NBA guards. The optimistic view is that Boozer can at least be a reliable outlet for other jumbo creators, as he shot 39.3% from three off the catch and 40.5% when spotting up. The problem is that the volume in both of those situations was incredibly low, with just 56 and 37 attempts, respectively.
The most concerning aspect of Boozer’s outside shooting, though, is that he provides essentially zero threat off the bounce. Boozer shot just 22.7% from three on pull-ups on an absurdly low 22 attempts and 18.2% from three on 11 attempts running the pick-and-roll. Boozer rarely looks for his own shot and allows defenders to go way under screens, close out short, or ignore him completely. The lack of confidence, low-volume attempts, and funky mechanics are troubling for the viability of his jumper. Even when it goes in, it doesn’t feel like it should’ve.
Boozer’s lack of shooting is so frustrating, because the rest of his game is so well polished. When we examine his interior scoring and rim pressure, Boozer appears to be a different player than when he has to score outside the paint. He has good touch, plays with physicality, and has a great understanding of angles. He’s still not overly aggressive, but he’s significantly more confident. Last season, Boozer scored 1.051 points per possession (PPP) and shot 58.6% on drives, shot 51.1% from two out of the pick-and-roll, and shot 61.5% at the rim. Boozer is, unfortunately, a below-the-rim finisher (three of his four dunks were in transition), but his footwork, change of pace, physicality, and understanding of driving and finishing angles make him a real threat.
What Boozer’s rim pressure also generates is myriad playmaking opportunities. This is the area where Boozer’s IQ and feel really pop. When he gets in the heart of the defense, he does a tremendous job of keeping his composure and head up to find open teammates. He can get a little too unselfish in these situations, but his playmaking numbers are almost exactly what you’d want from a lead guard with an assist rate of 26.1%, turnover rate of just 16%, and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.68. Additionally, when we look at Boozer’s overall PPP, he ranks in the 82nd percentile in scoring, but that number leaps to the 93rd percentile when we factor in assists. When it comes to pure passing and initiating the offense, there aren’t many freshmen who are more polished than Boozer is.
As Boozer continues to scale up in competition, though, it’ll be compelling to see how effectively his playmaking translates. While Boozer is really smart, sees the floor well, and does a great job punishing rotating defenses, he isn’t overly manipulative and struggles to create anything without a screen. College and NBA offenses run more than enough ball screen actions, but at some point, guys have to create something for themselves. This year, Boozer didn’t really do that at all.
When we look at Boozer’s 501 offensive possessions (including assists), 160 of them consist of him shooting, getting fouled, turning it over, or assisting out of the pick-and-roll (80th percentile in frequency). Of those 160 possessions, 129 shots were attempted, and only 56 of them were attempted by Boozer. I love how unselfish he is, and some of the reads are terrific, but he’ll become incredibly easy to defend if he never looks for or creates his own shot.
What’s even more concerning is that Boozer only recorded 13 total isolation possessions, including his passes, which ranked in the 1st percentile in frequency. Of those 13 possessions, he shot 1-5, committed two turnovers, and his teammates shot 4-6. Disciplined decision-making is a wonderful trait, and I expect Boozer to operate Duke’s offense at a high level this year, but his lack of aggression and on-ball creation is troubling for what his ceiling could be. He’s too skilled and physical to be that passive.
I have very few doubts that Boozer will be a very good point guard for Duke. He can help raise their floor immediately with his decision-making, passing accuracy, and overall feel. Even on the defensive end, he’s a plus. He’s a quality point of attack defender who has the size and IQ to switch some on the perimeter. Some of his off-ball rotations need work, but it isn’t anything too concerning that we don’t tend to see from most young players.
Where I do get concerned, though, is the feasibility of Boozer making the leap to the NBA without a significant development in his shooting effectiveness or scoring instincts. There are players like T.J. McConnell, Tre Jones, and others who fit a similar archetype to Boozer and have carved out a solid role in the NBA. Unfortunately, that player pool is rapidly shrinking. The best thing for Boozer’s development may be to stay at Duke for a few years to refine those areas of his game, which is never a bad thing, and even more attractive now given the NIL landscape. Taking some extra time is never a bad thing. Boozer has an incredible foundation to build on, because very few players his age see the game the way he does.