New Man on Campus: Winters Grady
The Michigan Wolverines were one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country last year, but incoming freshman Winters Grady could help fix that.
Specialists seem to be a dying breed in the NBA, but if they land in the right spot and are allowed to develop in college, they can grow into so much more.
Fit always matters. It can be a driving cause for surprise one-and-done prospects or the catalyst for major breakouts after the freshman season. That feels like it could be the case for the Michigan Wolverines’ new man on campus, Winters Grady.
Last season was Dusty May’s first in Ann Arbor, so it’s not surprising that his team-building relied more on transfers than recruits. With a full season under his belt, though, May not only came out of the transfer portal as a big winner, but he also attracted an intriguing freshman class that includes Grady, Trey McKenney, and Oscar Goodman. May’s approach seems to be to use the transfer portal to get win-now talent and use high school recruits as a way to fill short-term needs while having long-term upside—hence the interest in McKenney and Grady.
Last season, Michigan struggled with their outside shooting, as they shot just over 33% from three and ranked 203rd in the country. Additionally, they ranked in the 53rd percentile in points per possession (PPP) on all jumpers, the 26th percentile shooting off the catch, the 12th percentile shooting off the catch when unguarded while ranking in the 94th percentile in frequency in these situations, and the 43rd percentile spotting-up, per Synergy.
Their off-ball shooting was rough. Grady could help fix that.
At Prolific Prep, Grady was a reliable off-ball outlet playing off of Darryn Peterson. Grady isn’t one of these guys who is used to having the ball and will have to adjust to an off-ball role, but instead, he’s used to playing off of primary creators. With Prolific Prep, Grady ranked in the 73rd percentile in spot-up scoring, shot 42.2% from three when spotting up, and ranked in the 75th percentile shooting off the catch. Grady does a great job of relocating on the perimeter, staying shot ready, and adjusting his body to errant passes.
Grady’s off-ball shooting and movement also suggest that there’s a lot more upside to his off-ball scoring versatility. With Prolific Prep, only 14.3% of his possessions came when running off screens (0.929 PPP) or on cuts (1.571 PPP). However, he does a good job of setting up defenders when they get too aggressive in passing lanes, and off-ball screens are a great way to free him up to get downhill.
The other advantage that Grady’s off-ball shooting creates is long closeouts. In these situations, Grady has shown some fun flashes of attacking closeouts and getting good looks inside the arc. Many shooters at this age struggle to make an impact when they’re run off the line, but it is such a crucial tool to develop. It creates more efficient looks and keeps defenders second-guessing on their rotations, which can, in turn, generate cleaner looks from outside.
The problem with that, though, is that the sample size is tiny because of Grady’s struggles as an on-ball creator. With Prolific Prep, Grady only took 10 two-point attempts (out of 65 possessions) in spot-up situations. While he was a good finisher at the rim, only 12% of his shots came at the rim. That frequency ranked in the 1st percentile. Even when we look at his time with Jalen Green Elite 17U, Grady took just 15.1% of his shots at the rim (2nd percentile in frequency) overall and 11.4% in the half-court.
Grady is a really intriguing off-ball shooter, but some concerning holes in his game need to be addressed. The biggest hurdle that he’ll have to overcome is his lack of explosiveness. There isn’t much change of tempo in Grady’s game, and his lack of a first step makes it incredibly difficult for him to create on the ball. He’s a good shooter and encouraging passer, but he struggles a ton to create anything on his own. To make matters worse, his handle also gets a little loose. It was far too easy for help defenders to force deflections on simple digs. On drives, Grady had a turnover rate of 43.5% with Prolific Prep and 20.4% with Jalen Green Elite U17. Some of these were errant passes that came when he got walled up, but a lot were him not securing the ball in traffic.
Even though there’s a lot of work to be done, we’ve seen mediocre (relatively speaking) athletes improve on these issues. Grady needs to become more composed on the ball, tighten up his handle, and lean more into the physical aspects of reaching his spots. He should be watching endless amounts of film on Kon Knueppel and how he got to his spots. Grady likely won’t be a primary creator. Still, if he doesn’t improve his handle in traffic, it will nullify many of the fun aspects of his highly efficient at-rim finishing and intriguing passing.
The overall turnover numbers aren’t that bad, and the assist numbers will leave you underwhelmed, but I consistently came away excited about Grady’s passing upside. He sees the floor well and does a great job of understanding angles. As an off-ball connector, there’s some exciting upside that his passing could have. He’s a strong rebounder who is constantly looking for hit-ahead passes. He’s adept at running second-side pick-and-rolls and at finding teammates when he gets paint touches. A lot of these situations are reliant on him tightening up his handle so he can create these situations more frequently, though, which is why I’m so harsh on its current state. Once that ball security takes a leap and the game slows down for him, which tends to happen with experience, Grady could take a really fun jump from an off-ball shooter to an off-ball creator.
As a freshman, Grady could be a tremendous fit with Michigan. He immediately adds a spot-up shooting threat that they didn’t have last year. If he can come off the bench and make an impact, he could grow into a fantastic complement to the ball-dominant players like Elliot Cadeau, LJ Cason, and Yaxel Lendeborg. His shooting alone will make life easier for all of them. Grady can be a little streaky as a shooter, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he had some ups and downs this season. However, I’d be shocked if the shooting proves to be fake, especially given how we saw him work and prepare out at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he was going through shooting drills for nearly an hour before any spectators got in the gym.
The key for Grady, though, is improving his handle and getting stronger. Once he tightens up his handle, can put defenders in jail more consistently, and gets more comfortable in traffic, his game should take a very fun leap. Grady is a good shooter, efficient around the rim, and an intriguing passer. He just needs to keep building on his foundation and focus on the little things, so he can consistently put himself in a position to showcase the fun stuff.