Nick Martinelli is Not Normal
Maxwell Baumbach dives into why Nick Martinelli's unusual play style has caused him to shoot up draft boards.
One of the hardest parts of scouting, for me at least, is dealing with overexposure. Sometimes, when I watch too much of a player, I find myself becoming overly critical. I can sweat the details and finer points of a prospect’s game while ignoring the big picture, broad-brush, important aspects of their game. Plus, these guys are young. Just because a player misses an opening in the weakside corner out of the ball screen right now doesn’t mean they won’t start making that read down the road.
These past few weeks, Nick Martinelli has been shooting up draft boards. The Northwestern forward’s rise does make sense. He scored 23 PPG for a Big Ten team on 51.0/41.7/80.9 shooting splits. In hindsight, it’s crazier that he wasn’t higher on boards before based on that simple fact alone. He also measured well at the NBA Combine (6’6.5” barefoot with a 6’10” wingspan and 223.6 pounds), even if athletic testing was nothing special. Then, he performed well in the scrimmages, finding gaps in the defense to grab offensive rebounds and send home easy buckets.
Personally, I’d handwaved Martinelli for a long time. Part of it is that I may have been overexposed to Martinelli. As a Chicago-area resident, when I scout games in person, I often find myself at Northwestern. I’ve seen a lot of him in person, and I’ve paid pretty close attention to him because he’s been one of the Wildcats’ best players the past two seasons. I’ve watched him more up close with a higher degree of scrutiny than a hefty majority of prospects in college basketball. The other reason I’ve been skeptical of Martinelli is that, well, by NBA standards, he’s…well…not normal.
The Martinelli Special
Nick Martinelli’s shot diet isn’t what we typically associate with an NBA shot diet. His go-to shot is what I call “The Martinelli Special.”
Nick Martinelli lives off these flip shot/floater/hooks. Per Synergy, Martinelli ranked in the 96th percentile of runner shot frequency. Typically, this is one of the most inefficient shots on a basketball court. Players have to take them in heavy traffic, and they’re still far enough away from the basket that it’s not a rim attempt. The level of body control on a floater is minimal. When I work with players on a consulting basis, and we talk about floaters, I’ll sometimes tell them to jump in the air and then throw a punch. That’s kind of what a floater is like. You have no balance in your base, you’re floating through the air, and contorting your body while trying to master your touch. It’s not easy.
But Nick Martinelli isn’t normal. He’s an excellent scorer on touch shots, ranking in the 88th percentile of efficiency on these attempts, per Synergy. There’s no shortage of ways for Martinelli to get to The Martinelli Special, either. He can bully someone out of a post-up, hold his line on a drive out of a ball screen, or attack a hard closeout before floating up a shot. If he’s well covered, he can counter with his dribble, a whirl and twirl, or a pump fake to create a cleaner look. And while the floater is often considered a contact-averse shot, that couldn’t be less of the case for Martinelli. He bullies his way into The Martinelli Special, which his bulky measurements at the combine indicate he might be able to do at the next level, too. He loves to pound out mismatches or make similarly sized players scrap to keep him out of the paint. As a result, he actually improves the quality of his shot diet. Martinelli’s .418 Free Throw Rate this past season is a great indicator of his physicality, and his 80.9% mark at the charity stripe makes this a worthwhile trait.
The Martinelli Special is undoubtedly one of the most unorthodox, unique, and effective signature moves of a prospect that I can recall. Still, analytically inclined, this floater-heavy shot diet might turn off front offices. These are what I call “star shots.” Generally, an NBA coaching staff isn’t going to look to draw these up for a player. That said, he could still be a useful skill when the time comes. But let’s dig into the typical NBA stuff wings are asked to do and see how Martinelli stacks up on those fronts.
Typical NBA Stuff
Nick Martinelli’s three-ball is a bit of a tricky predicament to assess. On one hand, the results were good this past season, as he sunk 41.7% of his threes. A look at the pure percentage in a vacuum is encouraging, but a deeper dive leads me to some skepticism. For starters, the volume was low. Martinelli took only 5.6 threes per 100 possessions this past season, which is on the lower side, particularly for a player who isn’t a high-level athlete. It looks funky, too. He’s a lefty who brings it up the right side of his body, and his hand moves in more of a flail than a follow-through. Throw in his career 32.2% mark from deep through his first three college seasons, and one could argue he benefited from positive variance on a limited number of attempts as a senior.
That said…man, the ball sure did go in the basket a lot this year. The other thing to keep in mind is that defenses actually started to show him respect from distance as the year went along. Per Synergy, 58 of his 96 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this past season were guarded. And as strange as the shot may look mechanically, the release point is high, which enabled him to connect on 39.7% of those guarded looks. Teams learned they couldn’t ignore him because he hit 52.6% of his unguarded threes. There are reasons for concern here. He shot a low percentage before this season. He hardly takes any threes off movement, the jumper takes him a while to get it off, and it has real mechanical issues. But Martinelli’s touch indicators and efficiency are enough to convince me that the results could swing in his favor.
A big feather in Martinelli’s cap is his impact on the offensive glass. As front offices lean back into offensive rebounding, players who can make a positive impact on the boards further down the positional spectrum should gain favor. Martinelli’s 7.8 ORB% is a strong mark for a forward prospect and helps his overall statistical profile. He is strong and tenacious, constantly fighting for position on the interior and punishing opponents who don’t want the smoke around the basket. Beyond just his power and motor, he’s crafty. Martinelli has a good sense for both how the ball will come off the rim and how to get to that spot on the floor. He’ll find clever ways to sneak around opponents to get to rebounds that appeared to be out of his initial area. These rebounds lead to extra possessions and high-efficiency second chances, both of which are good.
Nick Martinelli’s passing is a bit of a mixed bag. On a positive note, Martinelli showed real improvement as a playmaker over the past year. As a junior, his assist-to-turnover mark was underwater. This year, he averaged 2.0 APG to 1.4 TOV while posting a career-high 13.4 AST%. When it’s good, it looks really good. Because The Martinelli Special is so potent, he has a real gravity to him when he gets into the middle of the floor. Defenses have to collapse in and help against him when he gets inside the paint, and at his best, Martinelli can quickly punish those defenders with quick, sharp deliveries to open teammates.
Still, I have some hangups. Martinelli’s vision comes and goes, and he’s more wired to score than he is to create. His 13.4 AST% sounds fine on paper, but relative to his 31.1 USG%, it becomes clear that he looks to get his own far more often than not. Part of that could be his role for a lackluster Northwestern team, but Martinelli does consistently miss open teammates in favor of lobbing up difficult shots in heavy traffic. There will need to be some rewiring regarding how he sees the game in motion at the next level.
The defensive proposition is tricky to grapple with, too. Martinelli’s 1.4 STL% and 1.2 BLK% are both statistical red flags. He’s not quick enough to make plays in passing lanes regularly, nor is he explosive enough to act as a major deterrent around the rim. His rebounding/rim protection makes him tough to slot at the four, and his lack of quickness makes me queasy about slotting him on the wing. Martinelli isn’t a total lost cause, though. He stays in front of the ball pretty well. His stance is fundamental, he plays with a good level of discipline to avoid getting suckered by counters, and he’s aggressive with his footwork. There is no shortage of possessions where smaller guards thought they could dust him, only to find themselves smothered by his overwhelming physicality. Still, he can get “hoppy” at times, which makes him a blow-by target, and he’s not going to contribute to the possession battle. The offensive value will have to cover up some shortcomings here.
Conclusion
The concerns I had about Nick Martinelli coming into this article weren’t significantly alleviated by what I saw during my deep dive into the tape and numbers. I still have concerns about whether he’ll effectively space the floor in the NBA; his processing is hit-or-miss; and his defensive role remains a serious question. But what I keep coming back to is…Nick Martinelli is not normal. He’s a hard-charging, physically imposing grinder. He has obscene touch, he relishes contact, and his motor on the offensive glass is out of this world. He made considerable improvements to his passing and shooting efficiency last season. While I worry about who he guards and how much defensive impact he can have, he does stay in front of the ball more often than not. The prospect of betting against a dude who isn’t normal is a little scary. I think he’s a great bet to land a draft night two-way (drafted or undrafted) from a team that buys the shot, physicality, and motor while thinking they can figure out the rest.