Nikola Djurisic, Breaking the Rules of NBA Scalability
A majority of NBA prospects are generally asked to "do less" when they get to the league. But what if "doing less" strips them of the reason why they are NBA prospects in the first place?
Nikola Djurisic is a familiar name for those who have followed the international game over the last few years. The Serbian wing stood out at the 2019 FIBA U16 EuroBasket when he was just 15 years old. He has been considered one of the top players in the 2004 international generation ever since, thanks to his combination of size, perimeter scoring, and flashes of playmaking for others.
As Djurisic moved up to the professional level, he improved on many aspects of his game, but the shooting percentages and his overall efficiency continued to be an issue. Djurisic entered the 2022-23 season as a potential first round pick in the NBA Draft, but his stock all but dissipated after a few injuries kept him on the sidelines at the beginning of the season, and he converted just 9-of-78 three-point attempts (that’s 11.5%) to start once he was back on the floor.
Djurisic played in an on-ball role during that season, where he would self-create most of his shot attempts. When it was announced that Nikola Topic would be joining Mega on loan for the 2023-24 season, there was the expectation that with Topic taking most of the on-ball reps, Djurisic would be able to have an easier shot diet. That would, in theory, make him a more efficient player by forcing him to play off the ball and receive more high-percentage looks off the catch.
So, of course, the opposite happened.
It wasn’t until Topic returned to Crvena Zvezda from his loan in late December that Djurisic started flourishing, seeing an uptick in his counting stats while playing nearly the same amount of minutes per game. Most importantly, he did so on significantly better efficiency.
However, this shouldn’t have been a surprise to anybody: this is who Djurisic has been up until this point in his career. He plays his best basketball with the ball in his hands and it can be difficult for him to get into a rhythm when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.
Let’s turn to the numbers. We want to see how playing on and off the ball affects Djurisic’s efficiency. Since we don’t have tracking data for the Adriatic League as we do in the NBA, we’re going to have to make an approximation by adding up the amount of Field Goal Attempts, Assists, Turnovers, and Free Throws that Djurisic took every game to estimate how many possessions he played on-ball in each game. (The Free Throws are multiplied by a 0.44 coefficient, just like it’s done for the True Shooting formula).
If we look at the 66 games he played for Mega and the Serbian national team over the past two seasons, a clear pattern starts to form.
Both tables paint a clear picture: the more Djurisic has the ball in his hands, the more impactful and efficient he is.
NBA teams now have a decision to make when it comes to his draftability. Can they turn him into an off-ball player? Or do they think he’s good enough as an on-ball wing to give him those reps at the NBA level?
To answer those questions, we have to turn to the tape.
What Can He Do With the Ball?
The first thing that stands out about Djurisic is his advanced passing ability for his size. The Serbian wing is not just able to create passing opportunities with his scoring gravity; he’s a proper pocket passer who is able to read and react to defenders, making the right decisions and finding teammates consistently, like few wings/forwards in this draft can.
His 6’7” size gives him a natural advantage as a pick-and-roll creator since he can scan the floor and make passes over the top of the defense that most guards wouldn’t be able to complete. In addition, Djurisic is a versatile and creative passer who can hit teammates with advanced deliveries. He can find roll men with timely lobs and accurate pocket passes while also being aware of the corners, where he finds open shooters time and time again.
Djurisic’s mix of size, fluid-ball handling ability, and smart usage of screens, also make him a threat as a driver. He shows a level of creative ball-handling to get by opponents in the perimeter, where he utilizes pump fakes, quick crossovers, and convincing changes of speeds and directions to attack opposing defenders off the bounce.
Once he’s able to get by opponents, he takes off quickly and is able to generate tremendous momentum from his second and third steps. Djurisic is a fluid athlete in space, who can elevate easily and seamlessly off of one foot, needing little to no time to load up. If he gets two steps to the basket, it’s game over; he’s able to dunk over opponents, even in heavy traffic, with the amount of power he gets on his way to the rim.
When the situation requires him to play at floor level, Djurisic is not the most electric ball-handler in terms of counters and overall shiftiness; the handle is rather rigid, and he can turn the ball over as he drives with no plan. But he compensates to some degree with his ability to keep balance after contact, his slight changes of directions, and his ability to find the open space. Once he finds that space, he utilizes spin moves, step throughs, and eurosteps to get to his spots in the paint.
The downside is that Djurisic, despite his explosiveness and his excellent level of hangtime at the rim, can be a bit one-dimensional as a finisher. A good number of his strengths as a slasher can be neutralized by opposing defenders when they force him to his weaker hand. Djurisic has driven an identical number of times to each side of the floor according to InStat, but has converted only 46.7% on field goals when driving to his left, compared to the 60% when driving to his right.
Whenever he drives to his left, he doesn’t seem to generate the same level of power, almost like the ball slows him down once he’s forced to dribble with his weak hand. He also tends to go into overload fairly quickly: he can throw a counter or a spin move when a defender cuts him off, but it’s difficult for him to thread multiple dribble moves in traffic without turning the ball over.
The touch and versatility around the basket are also concerning. For a prospect who shows that level of explosiveness and hangtime, he should be a better finisher around the basket than what the numbers show, as his 1.06 points per shot on layups (according to Synergy) put him decidedly below the average for forwards and wings in this class. The touch on his shots from the 8-16 foot range is only at 25%—definitely a concerning mark when it comes to his long-range layups, floaters, and hooks package.
With some of those limitations, dribble jumpers have become a major part of Djurisic’s game. Djurisic is actually one of the few wings and forwards in this class who has taken more shots off the dribble than off the catch, at a 1.13 ratio, according to Synergy.
Overall, Djurisic possesses the ability to hit jumpers off movement, being precise in shots that require him to align, aim, and release while he’s in mid-air. His shot preparation is key, as the Serbian wing utilizes his combination of impressive footwork and solid handling ability to create just enough separation to get his jumpers off.
When defenders are able to stay in front of him and contest the jumper, Djurisic is able to counter with his ability to elevate quickly off a standstill and his ability to stop on a dime in order to shoot over defenders. He naturally tends to lean back on a number of his jumpers and land on one foot, which makes him a natural shooter in fadeaways.
What Can He Do Without the Ball?
With his ability to convert jumpers off the dribble, and with shooting mechanics that look at least decent enough to be workable, it’s puzzling that the catch-and-shoot jumpers have been such a struggle for Djurisic. He ranks 18th out of 21 wing and forward prospects in the No Ceilings Top 60 when it comes to points per shot on catch-and-shoots, according to Synergy.
According to InStat, Djurisic has shot 26.3% from the corners and 34.8% from the wings and the middle of the floor on three-pointers. The spot-up woes correlate with his poor performance at the NBA Combine in the Spot-Up drill, where he connected on just 52% of his attempts.
Even with the catch-and-shoot struggles, there are areas in which Djurisic can add value when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, starting with his ability to attack the rim. With his size, fluid athleticism, and ability to get up for dunks, Djurisic has been lethal in cuts and attacking closeouts this season, albeit on a small sample. He has converted 68.8% of his 32 shot attempts in plays that InStat defines as cuts and catch-and-drives.
Just like his on-ball offense, the biggest contribution he might be able to make off-the-ball is as a playmaker for others. Djurisic can not only add value with his pick-and-roll playmaking but also with his connective passing, playing well within the flow of the offense, making the extra pass and playing well with big men, knowing entry passes, recognizing mismatches, and throwing accurate lobs.
Breaking the Rules of NBA Scalability
Djurisic’s profile as a prospect is an enigma. He makes the easy things (like hitting corner threes) look hard, and the difficult stuff (like the advanced playmaking, and the pull-up shooting) look easy—and there’s definitely value in the latter.
There are teams that will look at Djurisic, see the touch in tough shots off-movement from three-point range as an indicator of catch-and-shoot upside, and hope that he can scale down to a role where he doesn’t ask for the ball that much and can make his presence felt with his connective passing and his ability to attack closeouts.
However, taking a player whose strength lies in his combination of size and primary playmaking and focusing on turning him into an off-ball player is not the smartest of ideas.
And yes, players should develop every area of their game; the more things you can do on the floor at a good-to-elite level, the better it is for you and your team. However, if teams want an off-ball player, there are a number of elite options in this draft and the tables in this very article should give you a good idea of who they are.
Instead of worrying about his potential to turn into something that he’s currently not, we might want to consider the opposite route: to give him the ball in an environment—G League, “garbage time” minutes, or second units—where he can grow, learn from mistakes (which there will be plenty during his first campaign) and add value with his size, playmaking, slashing, and flashes of shooting until he’s ready for the bright lights—if such a day ever comes.
What I’m trying to say is that hitting a single can be tempting in the draft. If that’s what you want, go ahead; no one is going to blame you.
Just don’t take Djurisic unless you’re ready to swing for the fences.
This piece speaks right to my soul!