Nique Clifford is Improving Where it Matters
Nique Clifford's improvements in the right areas could make him one of the most ready made two-way off-ball wings in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Returning to school can always be a tricky proposition, especially for upperclassmen coming off a really strong year for a mid-major program. Last season, Nique Clifford emerged as a terrific 3-and-D wing with Colorado State. Even though some teams had legitimate interest in Clifford in the 2024 NBA Draft, Clifford chose to bet on himself, return to Colorado State for another year, and improve his stock for the 2025 NBA Draft. So far, that bet looks to be a good one.
When players return to school and show improvement, it’s important to put those improvements in a proper context for what their NBA role is most likely to be. One of the biggest struggles is identifying meaningful skill and tendency improvements versus simple increases in usage. If a 3-and-D wing continues to post similar efficiency, playmaking, and tendency numbers as the year before but on higher volume, then were there really any improvements made outside of the raw box score numbers? Conversely, if that archetype of player continues to operate in a similar role but has diversified their shot selection, expanded their passing repertoire, and shifted their play type tendency, then we can start to identify tangible improvements. This latter bucket is where Clifford looks to be falling into so far this season.
To figure out where Clifford has grown, though, we have to first identify some of the questions with his game from last season. The biggest concern was the validity of his shooting improvement. Last season, Clifford’s three-point shooting jumped from 28.8% on 2.1 attempts per game to 37.6% on 3.0 attempts. That is fantastic growth, but it isn’t overwhelming evidence. The percentage was fine, but it wasn’t exactly elite. More concerning, though, was the volume as there were plenty of games where Clifford was hesitant to let shots fly. Finally, the bulk of his outside shots came from standstill spot-up looks. It’s an important shot to knock down, but it doesn’t exactly scream “NBA shooter.”
Quick side note: obviously, it’s still very early, so these numbers are subject to change significantly. Instead of being wedded to the numbers, take note of the early changes Clifford has made and monitor if they maintain throughout the season.
Through his first three games, Clifford is shooting 53.8% from three. That’s an incredible number that surely won’t be maintained all year, but it’s a good start. More encouraging, though, is the volume, as Clifford is now up to 4.3 attempts per game. Additionally, Clifford is shooting 61.5% on 13.0 attempts overall, which is up from 52.2% and 8.9 attempts the previous season.
So far, so good. What makes Clifford’s early season even more encouraging is that he’s also diversifying his shot diet. Per Synergy, spot-up possessions are still Clifford’s most frequent play type, but it is down to just 21.4% of his possessions compared to 24.2% last year. On top of that, only 45% of Clifford’s shot attempts are coming off the catch, compared to 51.1% last season. Conversely, 55% of his jumper attempts are pull-ups, compared to 46% the year before.
This shift in tendencies doesn’t matter, though, unless the shots are going in. Thankfully, Clifford’s efficiency is up across the board on his jumpers. Off the catch, Clifford is scoring 1.67 points per shot (PPS) compared to 1.34 last season (94th percentile). Off the bounce, he’s currently up to 1.45 PPS compared to 0.87 last season. Clifford is continuing to show us real growth and diversity with his shooting capabilities.
All of that leads us to the other major question with Clifford’s offense from last season, which was whether or not he could do anything when he was run off his spot. There are plenty of very good standstill shooters in college, but they can’t do anything when defenders close out aggressively. These shooters almost never make it in the NBA anymore. Now, there has to be some mix of attacking closeouts to get to the rim, pull up in the midrange, or create for others. Clifford teased us last season against Virginia in the tournament, where he displayed a lot of those skills. This year, he’s continuing to expand on them.
What’s been really tantalizing about Clifford’s apparent improvement as a creator this season is the manner in which he’s doing it. Clifford’s pick-and-roll frequency has jumped from 11.5% last season to 19.6% this season, and his points per possession (PPP) has skyrocketed from 0.61 to 1.273. While his usage is up to 22.9 from 20.6, Colorado State isn’t just rolling out the ball and letting him do whatever he wants. Instead, they are using him in a role that is what his ideal NBA role will likely be as more of an off-ball and second side creator.
As we can see below, Colorado State is using Clifford’s off-ball movement and scoring gravity to put him in position to succeed. They are constantly putting the defense in motion and allowing him the opportunity to exploit it. So far, Clifford is consistently showcasing his ability to find open pockets, score with efficiency and variety, create for others, and make the right decision.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the defense. I know, it’s a little too on-brand for me and doesn’t really fit this whole theme of “where he’s improved,” but my goodness, Clifford’s defense is a blast. When it comes to strength, length, athleticism, and fundamentals, there aren’t many better perimeter defenders in the country than Clifford. If his offensive improvements and this level of defense that he’s shown for multiple years maintain, sign me up.
Identifying where Clifford is showing improvement is important, but figuring out why those improvements matter for his NBA translation is just as crucial. Given his physical profile and defense, Clifford has a great starting point in terms of filling a role. Last season, Clifford looked like a promising spot-up shooter who could occasionally attack a close-out, but his offensive role was still pretty spotty in an NBA setting. Now, Clifford is incorporating far more off-ball movement and versatility into his offense. By constantly setting screens, making multiple relocations in a single possession, and exploiting open pockets on the court, Clifford is proving that he doesn’t have to just be plopped in the corner. When he is just spotting up, though, he’s now attracting more aggressive closeouts, which subsequently leads to him showing off his improved rim pressure, connective passing, and midrange scoring game. It’s unlikely that Clifford will emerge as a high-usage off-ball wing in the NBA. However, the improvements he’s showing so far this season make roles that are more similar to those of Christian Braun, Aaron Wiggins, Caleb Martin, and others far more feasible.
It would’ve been very easy for Nique Clifford to transfer to a bigger program and play essentially the same role as last year. He also could’ve pushed more for running the show and significantly increasing his usage. Neither of those things really would have changed much when it comes to his draft stock, though. Instead, Clifford stayed put and improved his game in tangible ways that will translate directly to what his NBA role is most likely to be. He’s continuing to showcase his ball skills, scoring versatility, and off-ball creation. All of these skills can provide a great outlet option for more ball dominant players while also forcing the defense to respect him when he’s on the court. It’s a long season, and he has to maintain this strong start, but Clifford is looking like one of the more ready-made off-ball wings in the 2025 NBA Draft.