No Stone Unturned 2025: The Guards
No Stone Unturned 2025 rolls on with five under-the-radar guards who have NBA upside! PLUS: An interview with Virginia Tech's Izaiah Pasha!
Welcome back to No Stone Unturned 2025! In this series of articles, I dig into five players at different positional groups who are flying under the radar but warrant attention. For my methodology, I started by seeking out players with interesting statistical profiles or players who had popped on film for me this past season. From there, I compiled a list, worked my way through the film and data, then chose my favorites. I excluded prospects who have received rankings on early big boards and mock drafts, as well as those who received an NBA Combine or G League Elite Camp invitation. I’m looking for deeper cuts who aren’t receiving much love yet but still have a real crack at making a mark in the draft space. Today, we are looking at the guard position!
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You can read the No Stone Unturned 2025 columns here:
Obi Agbim, 6’3”, 176 Pounds, Baylor, Graduate
2024-2025 Season Stats (at Wyoming): 17.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.2 TOV, 1.1 SPG, 0.3 BPG
2024-2025 Shooting Splits: 46.9/43.7/78.5
Signature Performance: vs. Colorado State, 1/18/2025. 26 points, six rebounds, two assists, one steal. 10-17 FG, 2-5 3FG, 4-4 FT.
Reminds me a little bit of: Payton Pritchard, Landry Shamet, Devonte’ Graham
Background
Obi Agbim has been on a winding journey through the basketball world. He earned a Class 5A All-State First Team selection during his senior season at Rangeview High School in Colorado, where he led his team to a 26-0 record before COVID cut the season short. He started his college career at Metropolitan State University of Denver, a D-II program. There, he appeared in nine games and averaged 4.4 PPG. Because the 2020-2021 season was not counted towards a player’s eligibility, we can toss that year out. After the season, he moved on to Northeastern Junior College, where he led the team with 16.8 PPG, albeit on inefficient scoring splits. He spent the next two seasons at Fort Lewis College, a D-II school in Durango, Colorado. There, Agbim found his footing, earning NABC First-Team All-South Central Region honors during his what was technically his fourth season of college basketball, but was classified as his junior year. He then moved up to the Division I level at Wyoming. Agbim balled out for the Cowboys, earning All-Mountain West Third-Team honors. The NCAA’s ruling that Junior College seasons don’t count toward eligibility opened up one final season for him. As a result, Agbim entered the transfer portal this spring before enrolling at Baylor.
What’s Good
Obi Agbim is a bucket-getter of the highest order. He’s an outstanding pull-up shooter. Per Synergy, Agbim drained 35% of his pull-up threes on 80 attempts this past season. He has deep range off the bounce and a variety of ways to generate space for himself on the perimeter. The man is exceptionally crafty and shifty. He’ll utilize a variety of approaches in pick-and-rolls, so it’s tough to know if he’ll simply come off the screen, reject it, re-use it, or split it. From there, he’s a quick mover who can take long, dramatic strides in any direction while still maintaining excellent balance before going into his shot mechanics. It’s tough for defenders to stick with him, and when he gets space, he’s automatic. Even when he doesn’t gain separation, he gets such great elevation on his shot that he’s still able to get off a pretty solid look most of the time. His speed, footwork, and the threat of his shot make it such that defenders have to play him tight, but that still doesn’t guarantee that they will find any level of success against him. As a result, he’s deadly out of high ball screens, creating heaps of space for his team and stretching defenses beyond their capabilities.
Still, there’s more to Agbim offensively. His pull-up prowess continues in the mid-range, where he hit 45.5% of his dribble jumpers, per Synergy. When he gets a clear runway, he has the bounce to finish above the rim. Agbim also does a great job of picking up the low-hanging fruit as a passer. His blend of burst and herky-jerky movement patterns creates advantages, and when defenders come to help, he’s able to find the open man on a reliable basis. He keeps his head up on the go and can react appropriately to what the defense gives him, resulting in a 23.8 AST%. Plus, he can bring serious value off the ball. Agbim made 43.7% of his threes on 11.2 attempts per game, with most of those threes coming off the catch. Per Synergy, he hit 42.1% of his spot-up threes, demonstrating his prowess as a floor spacer. Plus, there are some serious movement chops here that could be unleashed in a reduced role. Agbim went 8-for-14 on transition threes, 7-for-8 off screens, 3-for-5 on pick-and-pops, and 2-for-3 on handoffs according to Synergy’s tracking data. Agbim’s blend of speed, scoring versatility, and playmaking makes him a fascinating offensive prospect.
Agbim also has stuff to work with defensively. His quickness is a great asset on that side of the ball as well. His foot speed is sublime. At his best, he’s able to get low and stick with his man regardless of what dribble combinations they throw at him while maximizing his length. He has the flexibility to get around ball screens. He’s able to get into the right spots off the ball to slow advantages when one of his teammates gets beaten. His effortless lift off the floor enables him to deliver potent contests on jump shots, leading to an impressive 1.2 BLK%. He can also dart into a passing lane from time to time.
What Needs Improvement
I worry about Agbim’s slight frame as he makes the jump to the next level. He’d be around the second percentile weight-wise among players who saw an NBA floor last season. Defensively, he can get put behind the play by screens both on and off the ball. He’s easy to play through downhill, an issue that will only be exacerbated at the next level. Technique-wise, he crosses his feet too often. He doesn’t always utilize his length properly, leading to blow-by scenarios where he has to chase from behind. Off-ball, he didn’t use his quickness to rack up as many steals as he could have (1.9 STL%). Offensively, he doesn’t get downhill much. He’s more content to dance side-to-side than to collapse the defense. Plus, add in his slender frame, and he has a hard time getting to his spots against physicality. Only 14.7% of his halfcourt shots came at the rim, and he made a subpar 52.8% of them. He’s contact-averse, often settling for deep takeoff points too far from the basket that lead to lower percentage shots.
Conclusion
There are plenty of fair reasons for skepticism here. Smaller, skinnier guards aren’t exactly hot right now. Physicality will always be an issue for him. While his scoring arsenal has a hint of Payton Pritchard to it, there’s roughly a 20-pound difference between them, and that matters. Agbim’s defensive struggles in the Mountain West were concerning, and that hill will only become harder to climb as he scales up in competition. Throw in the fact that he’ll turn 24 prior to his rookie season, and it becomes clear that he’ll have to figure things out fast to carve out a niche in the NBA.
But rather than focusing on what Agbim isn’t, it’s important to focus on what he is. I mentioned his weight earlier, but it’s important to note that the NBA players with a frame similar to Agbim also play like Agbim. He’s a tricky speedster who can generate space for himself, shoot the cover off the ball, and make good decisions in a timely manner. I also think he found an excellent fit for himself at Baylor, where guards routinely carry a hefty usage load. He’s off to a good start, too. Baylor played at the Rhine-Ruhr 2025 FISU World University Games in Germany. Agbim balled out in that context, averaging 20.5 PPG on 47.3/45.5/66.7 splits while posting 5.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 2.7 SPG. It seems like he’s going to be the leading man for the Bears this year. There’s certainly work to be done, but Agbim’s scoring profile, playmaking, and quickness make him a draft sleeper worth monitoring.
Izaiah Pasha, 6’5”, 205 Pounds, Virginia Tech, Sophomore
2024-2025 Season Stats (at Delaware): 11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.6 TOV, 0.8 SPG, 0.6 BPG
2024-2025 Shooting Splits: 51.7/33.3/76.9
Signature Performance: vs. UNC Wilmington, 3/11/2025. 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, one steal. 8-15 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-4 FT.
Reminds me a little bit of: Ajay Mitchell, Malcolm Brogdon, Ayo Dosunmu
Background
Izaiah Pasha played high school ball for Cardinal O'Hara in Pennsylvania. He earned All-Philadelphia Catholic League First Team honors during his senior season. He also competed for Philly Pride on the Under Armour circuit. His play earned him three-star status from 247Sports. He was initially set to attend Iona, but after the Gael’s then-coach Rick Pitino left for St. John’s, Pasha opted to do a prep year for St. Thomas More. After that, he enrolled at Delaware. He had a strong freshman campaign, earning CAA Rookie of the Year honors. Pasha was particularly great down the stretch, leading the 12th-seeded Blue Hens to the finals of the CAA tournament. After the conclusion of the season, Pasha entered the transfer portal. He drew significant high-major interest before committing to Virginia Tech. I got to speak to Izaiah Pasha for this article, and he told me, “The biggest reason I came here is the intensity. They’re on top [of] all of the little mistakes we make, and they want to fix them right away…They made it feel like home. I could tell that they genuinely wanted…me and would invest in my future.”
What’s Good
Izaiah Pasha is a walking paint touch. This past season, he ranked in the 89th percentile in isolation frequency and the 88th percentile in pick-and-roll frequency. Even with a massive creation burden on his shoulders, Pasha still managed to live at the rim. Per Synergy, an astounding 57.6% of his halfcourt shots came at the rim, an elite mark for a guard. According to BartTorvik, only 16.4% of his shots at the basket were assisted, meaning that he was getting to the rim by his own handiwork at a ridiculous clip. He converted 55.3% of his halfcourt shots at the cup. That’s solid in most cases, but it’s impressive here given the volume and self-creation. Pasha can get to his spots in a variety of ways. He’s a clever pick-and-roll operator who knows how to manipulate a ball screen. His handle enables him to string together multiple moves and break down defenders. He can also utilize his bruising physicality to play through his opponent. He embraces contact and has the touch to finish through it. “I’ve always been taught to be in attack mode,” Pasha remarked, “I’m always going downhill. I’ve realized this is my strong suit. This is what I do, this is my thing. I’m going to go downhill, and I’m going to go right at you. I’m wide, tall, and long. I weigh 205 pounds. People don’t think that when they look at me, but I’m stronger than I look.”
Still, Pasha manages to make life easier for his teammates, too. Pasha has a diverse passing portfolio. He’s able to whip sharp, high velocity passes to open teammates, whether they’re rolling to the basket, cutting, or spotting up from three. He can sling out of his live dribble with either hand. His ability to fit the ball through tight windows on the go is particularly valuable. These traits allowed Pasha to register a strong 24.3 AST% last season. He averaged 5.8 APG to 2.7 TOV after taking the reins for the Blue Hens for their final ten games of the season. “As a freshman, I really had to earn my rights, and that wasn’t easy at first. As the year went on, Coach Ingelsby was really letting me rock. The game slowed down. Everything in college basketball is going to be transfer portal-based now, so you’re always going to have new teammates, you’re going to have to gel, and you’re going to have to understand what each other’s strengths are and where players will be on the floor. We developed more chemistry, and it became easier for me to know where my teammates were going to be. I’m really adaptable and open to adjusting. So, once I figured out the defense, and then where my teammates were going to be, it got easier,” Pasha explained. He also helped his teammates as an off-ball floor spacer. He knows how to relocate off the ball and find gaps in the defense. He made 40.6% of his catch-and-shoot threes while showing that he can extend his range to the NBA line in that context.
Pasha can be an overwhelming on-ball defender. He’s got an awesome frame at 6’5” and 205 pounds with long arms. He can attack with his lateral first step to cut off drives, use his chest to win the bump battle, and swarm opponents when he forces them to pick up their dribbles. His 2.0 BLK% is a strong mark for a guard, and many of those rejections came while he was guarding the ball. “When I’m at the point of attack, with my length, my size, and my quickness, I can put a lot of pressure on people. I’m a dog,” Pasha said. Off-ball, he can use his length in passing lanes. When he digs with two hands, it’s hard for opponents to hang onto the ball. He covers ground well. He also has a good understanding of how to play as the low man and rotate around the basket.
What Needs Improvement
Offensively, my biggest concern about Pasha is his pull-up jumpshot. He went 33.3% on pull-up twos and 25% on pull-up threes last season. When he gets to the next level, and he doesn’t have as dramatic of a physical edge, the lack of an off-the-dribble perimeter scoring game could be an issue. “I’m feeling great about my shot. Guys at Delaware would go under ball screens against me. Here, guys go over ball screens in practice. In games, guys are going to go under, and I’m ready. I’m working on my mindset, my speed, my mechanics, not worrying about the misses. Every single day, two or three times a day outside of practice, I’m working on it. If it’s there, I’ll take it. Before, I wasn’t going to take it unless they really give it to me, because I was going to go downhill and make the right play. Catch and shoot, I’m ready. But now, on a closeout, I can read it and make a better decision,” Pasha remarked. I’d also like to see him reduce his turnover rate (20.8 TOV%). He has a tendency to pick up his dribble in crowded areas of the floor, which leads to mistakes. Defensively, he wants to boost his 1.6 STL% next year, explaining, “At Virginia Tech, we’ve gotten to work on my defense a lot. I want to be more disruptive with my length. I want to get into passing lanes more often.”
Conclusion
Virginia Tech had a great off-season. They retained one NBA prospect in Toibu Lawal and imported another in Neoklis Avdalas. It shouldn’t be a mystery as to why the addition of Izaiah Pasha has slid under the radar, as he hasn’t built up the following or acclaim that two of his teammates have up until this point. Also, there are fair reasons to be skeptical. Pasha had a negative BPM at Delaware. Then, there’s the high turnover rate paired with a low volume of three-point attempts. I get why he’s not popping up on 2026 mock drafts.
Still, I’m enamored with Pasha as a long-term NBA prospect. I can’t shake the similarities to Ajay Mitchell from a body, process, and skill perspective. Heck, even their freshman year advanced numbers are pretty similar. Pasha’s physicality, paired with his slick dribble game, allows him to collapse defenses time and time again. Despite having to create a massive portion of his own shot attempts, he still managed to be efficient overall with a 58.7 TS%. As the year progressed, he got better in his problem areas, reducing his turnovers and boosting his steal rate down the stretch. The player we saw over his final ten games was one of the best freshmen guards in the country. And if he continues to be that dude—a jumbo guard who pressures the rim at will, makes the right read, knocks down shots off the catch, and plays smothering defense—the NBA will take notice before it’s all said and done.
Lastly, and you can take or leave this based on your own philosophy, but I buy the person here, too. Pasha’s intensity, awareness of his own flaws, and excitement about talking about the work he’s been putting in reminded me distinctly of past No Stone Unturned success stories like Cedric Coward and Ben Sheppard. Plus, Virginia Tech has historically done a great job of maximizing up-transfers under Head Coach Mike Young. Players like the aforementioned Lawal, Justyn Mutts, and Keve Aluma ended up outproducing their marks at lower levels after spending time in the Hokies program. If Pasha is able to string together the necessary improvements, he’ll be the type of big, physical guard that NBA teams love for the skill and versatility they bring to the table. For that reason, get Izaiah Pasha on your watchlist.
Mason Falslev, 6’4”, 200 Pounds, Utah State, Redshirt Junior
2024-2025 Season Stats: 15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.1 TOV, 2.3 SPG, 0.1 BPG
2024-2025 Shooting Splits: 49.7/39.0/57.9
Signature Performance: vs. South Florida, 12/24/2024. 27 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, three steals. 10-18 FG, 3-6 3FG, 4-4.
Reminds me a little bit of: Jordan Goodwin, Collin Gillespie, Jevon Carter
Background
Mason Falslev was a dual-sport athlete in high school. As a junior in 2019, he was the Utah 4A MVP in football and won a state title. Falslev would also lead Skyview High School to a state title in basketball that same year. Then, as a senior, he posted 20.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 5.8 APG, and 1.6 SPG. After wrapping up his prep career, he served a mission for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He made his way to Utah State in 2022, redshirting his first year on campus. Falslev had an immediate impact for the Utes the following year. Then, as a redshirt sophomore, he earned Second Team All-Mountain West honors and a spot on the conference’s All-Defense Team. He’ll be returning to Utah State for his junior season.
What’s Good
Mason Falslev is a Swiss Army knife on offense. Before we get into what makes him particularly intriguing, it is important to note that he’s an effective scorer both inside and out. He’ll readily take threes when given space, and the ball gets out of his hand quickly. Falslev went 39% from deep on 7.4 attempts per 100 possessions this past season, which requires defenses to respect his jump shot. Falslev also does a good job of getting his feet set coming off screens and went 13-for-29 on those types of threes last season, per Synergy. He’s particularly good downhill. Per Synergy, 38.6% of his halfcourt shots came at the basket. Falslev has a potent second and third step as he drives to the rim. His sturdy frame holds up well, enabling him to hold his line when defenders try to bump him. Once he gets to the basket, his coordination allows him to contort around rim protectors, while his core strength allows him to keep his touch against contact. His understanding of where the low man will come from and his ability to adapt to it shine through time and time again. These traits led to Falslev finishing an impressive 58.3% of his halfcourt rim attempts on high volume.
What makes Falslev most interesting, though, is his ability to process the game. Utah State often used him as a second-side attacker. When he drives off a spot-up or receives the ball flying off a screen, he already has the floor mapped. He has a super fluid process, enabling him to immediately make the right pass when a defender has a lapse or a teammate breaks open. Falslev has some trickery to him, too. He looks off his feeds well and will often pass out of what looks like is going to be a shot, thus freezing defenders. Falslev’s ability to finish plays, combined with his knack for continuing advantages and punishing help defenders, makes him an enticing offensive prospect in the midst of basketball’s five-out, dribble-pass-shoot evolution.
Falslev brings the goods on defense, too. He’s a big-bodied guard who is tough to deal with at the point of attack. He routinely wins with his physicality, using his chest and defensive first step to bump his man off their line while stifling dribble penetration. He’s aggressive in ball screen scenarios and does a tremendous job of using his hands to pinpoint the ball. Off-ball, he has razor-sharp rotational instincts. It feels like he always knows where the ball is going to go, whether the opposing offense is operating out of a set or in the midst of a chaotic scramble situation. Falslev’s timing, instincts, physicality, and nose for the ball led to him registering an incredible 4.3 STL% this past season. He’s also a menace on the glass, posting an 18.8 DRB% more common among power forwards than guards. His frame, feel, and tenacity all bode well for his next-level translation.
What Needs Improvement
As good as Falslev is at attacking from the second side of the floor, his “pure point guard” play could use some work. He only ranked in the 22nd percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer this past season, per Synergy. He doesn’t have a go-to way to beat defenders, lacking fluidity, shake, and blowaway speed. He’s also reliant on his right hand at the rim and rarely drives going left. I have some skepticism about his jumper. He can snakebite his release or not follow through all the way, and the ball follows an odd path up his body. His sub-60% mark at the free-throw line is worrying, too. Defensively, he can be a bit too heavy-footed at times, and he’s prone to turning his hips too easily.
Conclusion
I go back and forth on Falslev a lot. For starters, he doesn’t move like an NBA guard on offense. He doesn’t have breathtaking quickness, breakneck speed changes, or the type of wiggle that makes defenders miss at his disposal. That really limits what he’s able to offer on the ball. Then you get to the inconsistent shooting mechanics and subpar free-throw percentage, and his off-ball value could fluctuate, too. Defensively, his lack of lateral agility could become a bigger issue at the next level. Then, there’s his age. Falslev is going to turn 24 next month, meaning that whenever he decides to go pro, he’ll be archaic by prospect standards.
Still, I can’t quit the idea of Mason Falslev. He’s a strong, competitive dude who really knows how to play basketball. He impacts the game in so many ways. His flashes of movement shooting, toughness at the rim, ability to read the floor on the go, defensive playmaking, and ridiculous rebounding rate are difficult to overlook, even if he is older. Big guards who have a variety of ways to contribute are easy to plug into a wide array of contexts. His flaws make it such that he’s unlikely to hear his name called in the first round at any point. But if it all clicks, I could see a world where he’s coming off the bench for an NBA team, giving his squad quality minutes while making life easier for his teammates. Writing off a player this savvy and productive could prove to be foolish. I anticipate Falslev to make more and more noise in the draft space these next two years, especially if the jumper keeps falling like it did last year.
Rowan Brumbaugh, 6’4”, 185 Pounds, Tulane, Redshirt Junior
2024-2025 Season Stats: 15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, 2.2 TOV, 1.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG
2024-2025 Shooting Splits: 41.3/35.8/81.7
Signature Performance: vs. Rice, 2/15/2025. 25 points, six rebounds, eight assists, one steal. 7-11 FG, 4-6 3FG, 7-7 FT.
Reminds me a little bit of: Ty Jerome, Shake Milton, Cameron Payne
Background
Rowan Brumbaugh played at Northfield Mount Hermon School alongside recent first-round pick Danny Wolf. His play earned him significant attention from recruiting services and power-five programs. He slotted 78th in the high school class of 2022’s RSCI rankings. Brumbaugh received offers from West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall, Providence, Oregon, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Miami, Maryland, Marquette, Kansas, Georgia Tech, DePaul, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and the place he’d start his college journey, Texas.
Brumbaugh never played a game for the Longhorns. He redshirted his first year on campus and transferred after the season. He enrolled at Georgetown for his freshman year. Brumbaugh was one of the bright spots for an underwhelming Hoyas team, demonstrating impressive shooting and playmaking. He hit the portal once more, landing at Tulane for his sophomore year. There, Brumbaugh broke out and earned First-Team All-AAC honors. He’ll be returning to the Green Wave for his junior season.
What’s Good
Rowan Brumbaugh creates advantage through his pace, speed, and sauce. Per Synergy, he ranked in the 96th percentile on pick-and-roll plus passes frequency and still managed to land in the 84th percentile in efficiency on that play type. He’s got a quick first step, he gets low on his drives, and he has the footwork to weave through traffic. It’s not just that he’s fast, but it’s that he knows how to leverage it. He changes speeds effectively and uses misdirection well, making him difficult to telegraph when he attacks the cup. While his 51.7% on halfcourt rim attempts (per Synergy) is subpar, the fact that 34.5% of his halfcourt shots came at the basket speaks to his ability to break down defenders. Plus, Brumbaugh is tough and loves contact, enabling him to get to the line at will (.426 FTr).
When Brumbaugh doesn’t like his own look, he does a great job of finding his teammates. He’s able to spray it out to open shooters once he gets deep into the heart of the paint. He can make long, accurate deliveries from the perimeter. Brumbaugh also excels at wiring the ball to roll men with precise pocket passes. He can add some flair and creativity to his dishes, too, which can flummox defenses and lead to late rotations. His 27.5 AST% is a strong mark for a guard prospect. He can impact the game off the ball, too. Brumbaugh hit 41.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes in the halfcourt this past year, per Synergy. Brumbaugh’s advantage creation, physicality, and shooting make him an exciting offensive prospect.
Brumbaugh’s size and physicality help him on the defensive end. He’s not afraid to switch onto bigger players and holds his ground well against them. This will benefit him at the next level and help him stay above board in mismatch hunting scenarios. Generally speaking, he has a good level of food speed. His toughness and determination enable him to fight through screens. He does a nice job of reaching without fouling to collect steals at the point of attack, which helped contribute to his 2.6 STL%. Off-ball, he gets where he needs to go in a hurry and appears to communicate on a consistent basis.
What Needs Improvement
I do worry about Brumbaugh’s finishing as he scales up in competition. He’s a subpar finisher now, and he registered zero dunks last season. He’s a limited vertical athlete (also evident by his 0.5 BLK%), and that flaw will become more glaring at the next level. I’d be less concerned if he were a more efficient pull-up scorer, but he needs work there. Per Synergy, he went 27.5% on dribble jumpers from two and 27.7% on dribble jumpers from three. The confidence is there (he took 40 pull-up twos and 47 pull-up threes), but the results need to catch up. Defensively, he’s a bit too jumpy at the point of attack. Brumbaugh tends to hop laterally rather than sliding his feet, which leads to him getting off balance and out of position too often. His footspeed is there, but his technique needs to be refined. I’d also like to see him impact the game more on the glass (10.8 DRB%) given his size.
Conclusion
I can say with great confidence that I believe Rowan Brumbaugh will be one of the five best mid-major guards in the country next season. He was fantastic last year, and he’s returning to Tulane in what should be an even larger role. He’s going to put up big, splashy numbers, and that will draw eyes. Still, my job here is to project what Brumbaugh could look like once he gets to the professional level. I have some reservations. He’s not much of a leaper, and I’m skeptical of his finishing scaling up. He’ll also need to grow as a pull-up shooter. On defense, some of his bad habits are eerily similar to fellow No Stone Unturned prospect Dalton Knecht’s at Northern Colorado and Tennessee. He went on to struggle on that side of the floor during his first NBA season.
These issues are nothing to sneeze at, but I’m optimistic. Brumbaugh is a twitchy mover with the requisite craft to create advantages. He’s a great shooter off the catch, which will help him provide value off the ball. His toughness and physicality will help him draw fouls and stifle mismatches. There’s a lot to work with. Factor in that Brumbaugh has two seasons of college eligibility left, and he should have a long leash at Tulane this season, and it’s reasonable to get excited. The framework of Brumbaugh’s size, jumper, and playmaking savvy make him a prospect worth monitoring from an NBA perspective.
Trevian Carson, 6’4”, 200 Pounds, North Dakota State, Junior
2024-2025 Season Stats (at Des Moines Area Community College): 14.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.4 TOV, 1.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG
2024-2025 Shooting Splits: 57.9/39.0/80.9
Signature Performance: vs. Marshalltown, 11/19/2024. 24 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals, one block. 9-12 FG, 1-2 3FG, 5-6 FT.
Reminds me a little bit of: Josh Hart, Gary Payton II, DeAnthony Melton
Background
Trevian Carson played high school ball for West Des Moines Valley in Des Moines, Iowa. They won the state title during his senior season. Carson stuffed the stat sheet, but was only the squad’s fourth leading scorer, trailing three sophomores ahead of him. As a result, he slid under the radar, beginning his college career at West Des Moines Area Community College. There, he continued to show off his all-around play. He earned NJCAA First-Team All-American Honors during his sophomore year. After the season, Carson entered the transfer portal and committed to North Dakota State.
What’s Good
Trevian Carson is always making something happen. His presence on the floor is inescapable. Last season, he finished in the Top 10 in his conference in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals. We’ll start on the defensive side of the ball, as that’s where I feel best about his immediate D-I translation. He’s got a solid build and stays in his slide well laterally, allowing him to wall off drivers. His physicality and footwork enable him to force players into travels and dribble pick-ups. He goes seamlessly from sliding to leaping when an opponent tries him at the rim after driving. Off-ball, he’s consistently taking away passing angles with his positioning. He covers ground in a hurry and can close out with serious heat, allowing him to block shots behind the arc. He’s also eager to help around the basket. Carson’s motor, instincts, and athletic traits make him a high-level defensive playmaker. It feels like he’s always touching the ball, and the numbers back that up, as he registered 1.8 SPG and 1.2 BPG this past season.
Carson’s offensive arsenal is well-rounded, too. For starters, he hit 40.4% of his threes over his two seasons at DMACC. While he only averaged 2.5 attempts per game, the mechanics look good. He’s willing to take deeper shots behind the line, his base is consistent, and he doesn’t take too long to get the ball out of his hands. Plus, he’s long been a great free-throw shooter, consistently hitting over 80% of his attempts at the line, even dating back to high school.
His ability to keep defenses honest opens up his downhill game. Carson can get easy looks inside in a variety of ways. He can drive off a spot up, get inside after running a ball screen, cut when he finds an opening, or crash the offensive glass (1.9 ORB/game). To follow up on the offensive rebounding, Carson follows his own shot more often and more aggressively than any prospect I can recall scouting, and defenses often aren’t prepared for that. You have to put a body on him. On ball, he fights through contact and holds his line well. He’s also not afraid to collide with a big man before converting a touch finish inside, going 72.0% on halfcourt rim attempts last season per Synergy. Carson also has some real juice as a passer. He keeps his head out throughout his process. He can make a simple pass to punish nail help, make a long accurate pass to force rotations, or kick it to open shooters after getting near the restricted area. His 3.6 APG to 2.4 TOV last year is a good foundation for a player in his mold.
What Needs Improvement
In order to scale up successfully on defense, Carson will need to be more proactive and less reactive as he plays at a higher level. He’s often too content to play from behind the action. While his recovery tools allowed him to find success that way to the JuCo level, it’s a more precarious tactic at the D-I and NBA levels, where higher-level athletes can slam the door behind them. Offensively, his dribble game needs some work. He can rely too much on bullying his way downhill and needs to improve his spatial awareness in traffic. His pass placement could be cleaned up a bit, too.
Conclusion
Trevian Carson is a JuCo up-transfer with a yet-to-be-determined role at the Division-I level. I could’ve gone with a “safer” pick here. There were a handful of guys I came across who seemed like good bets to get Portsmouth Invitational Tournament nods and Summer League invites. But what’s the fun in that? Sometimes, you’ve got to swing for the fences. Maybe I’ll strike out on this one, maybe I’ll hit a dinger.
Carson is a cool and interesting player. But it goes deeper than that. A lot of those, “I’m sure this guy will get some looks” prospects I ultimately bypassed for Carson didn’t scream “VALUE!” to me. By that, I mean, if they get a cup of coffee in the NBA, it was hard for me to imagine it being anything more than, well, a replacement-level cup of coffee player. A JuCo up-transfer might have a lower percentage chance of reaching that outcome, sure. But if a player like Trevian Carson does click, I’d prefer this type of player to most other guards who linger around the margins.
The “Switchblade Guard” (copyright Chuck from Chucking Darts) archetype is one of the most coveted in the league. Players like Josh Hart, Alex Caruso, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker come at a premium. If you can get a dude at the guard spot who can do guard things, but also do things more commonly associated with wings and forwards, that can transform how you play and what types of lineups you can use. Is Trevian Carson a long shot to reach that type of outcome? Yes. But this series is all about looking for the long shot. If the long shot swings I can take are “23-year-old guard who can’t shoot,” “scrawny 22-year-old who can’t handle physicality,” or “JuCo All-American Switchblade guard,” I’m going with the last one, because if that long shot hits, it does a hell of a lot more for my franchise.
Carson’s Synergy numbers are fascinating. He ranked in the 79th percentile on spot-ups, 84th percentile on post-ups, 86th percentile on pick-and-rolls, 89th percentile on putbacks, 93rd percentile on handoffs, and 98th percentile on cuts. He was one of the best rebounders in his league. He had a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. He averaged three stocks per game. Carson has a high level of feel, a relentless motor, and a variety of ways to win on any given possession. Maybe it won’t translate up to the D-I level. But with the last guard on my list, I’d rather miss big by staying rooted in my core philosophy than attempt to hit a single on a player that doesn’t excite me. Keep tabs on Trevian Carson, because if it clicks for him, it could click in a big way.
great list per usual
other guys to watch are Isaia Howard, Nolan minessale, lajae jones jr., Tyler tanner, Luke Bamgboye, Damarion Dennis.
impressive.