Noah Penda's Plug-and-Play Potential | The Prospect Overview
French prospect Noah Penda has been putting together an exceptional season for Le Mans. His size and versatility could make him one of the best value plays in the 2025 NBA Draft. Plus: Quick Hits!
The best Christmas gift I got this year was the Cook’s Choice XL Better Breader Batter Bowl. Basically, it’s a one-container breading station.
The reason I was so excited to get it was because our family loves Marry Me Chicken. The problem is that the first time I cooked it, I underwent a very meticulous process with the chicken. I cut it into small pieces before cooking it so it would be easy for our daughter to eat. From there, I took the tiny pieces and individually rolled them in seasoning and my breading mixture before cooking them. There was no other non-messy way to do it that wouldn’t lead to a chunky, uneven coat of breading. This process was tiresome. But when I was done, I had chicken that was both crispy and juicy, allowing it to hold its structural integrity even when covered in sauce. That was a problem, though, because it came out so well that I had no choice but to cook it that way every single time. My wife specifically asks me if I’m going to individually bread small pieces every time I make chicken. But now that I have the Better Breader Batter Bowl, that arduous process is a thing of the past.
This isn’t an advertisement. It could be, though—if you’re a part of the Cook’s Choice XL Better Breader Batter Bowl Corporation and would like to sponsor Draft Sickos on the No Ceilings NBA YouTube channel and podcast feed, please reach out to me.
But back to the point. The reason I was so excited to get a breading dish is because I now get to save a ton of time doing something I had to do anyway. This gift didn’t change my life, like when I got an N64 as a kid, so it might not seem all that exciting to you. But the Cook’s Choice XL Better Breader Batter Bowl does enhance my life. It didn’t change my life, but it did make it a lot easier.
That’s what Noah Penda does on the basketball floor. The 20-year-old French prospect who plays for Le Mans is unlikely to change the face of an NBA franchise. But at 6’8” and 225 pounds with a well-rounded, high-value skill set, he has all the tools needed to make things easier for star-player teammates. Let’s dig into the plug-and-play potential of his game!
Shooting
Noah Penda has been rock-solid from deep this season. He’s hitting 35.4% of his threes on 2.8 attempts per game while playing 26.4 minutes per contest. A hefty majority of his triples come off of spot-ups. He’s not an ultra-dynamic, fly-off-of-screens shooter or a high-volume bomber. Still, he’s not a “totally stationary shots only” guy and can move into his jumper a little bit. Plus, he’s shown a willingness to take them from comfortably behind the line. He also does a good job of getting the ball out quickly off the catch, which allows him to maximize his openings and punish defenses for late rotations. The apex of his release and the consistency of his mechanics also allow his shot to hold up well in the face of tough contests.
It’s still a bit tricky, though. Penda’s other shooting indicators and priors leave a lot to be desired. He’s a sub-70% free throw shooter this season, and he’s never topped that mark over the course of a full season. Last year, Penda shot 26.5% from three across 52 games, and his three-ball has been waning as of late. In 11 games from September through November, Penda shot 37.8% from deep on 37 attempts. Since then, he’s shot 27.3% on 11 attempts in six games. If he regresses to his past results, he becomes a much more problematic offensive fit. Still, we’re dealing with a small sample, especially with regard to his most recent outings. It is entirely possible that his jump is the result of a guy who just turned 20 and is simply getting better at basketball. A lot of shooting leaps happen around that age, but how well he shoots for the remainder of the season will be worth monitoring and will heavily influence his draft stock.
Clean-Up Scoring
A big part of Penda’s appeal is his ability to contribute offensively in low-maintenance ways. He can score effectively without monopolizing the ball. One way he does this is through his work on the offensive glass. Penda uses his strong frame, lift, and toughness to win battles for contested boards. His 8.6 ORB% is an impressive mark for a prospect, and when he collects a rebound, he has good touch and a light second jump, enabling him to convert efficiently. Per Synergy, he ranks in the 73rd percentile on putbacks among international players. He thrives as a cutter, too, ranking in the 89th percentile on those play types. Penda’s ability to read the floor (more on that shortly!) enables him to find holes in the defense. He acts immediately when he senses opportunity, and his powerful build and bounce help him to convert when he gets rewarded. If he can prove to be a consistent shooter, his knack for putbacks and cuts should make him one of the most well-rounded off-ball scorers in this class.
Passing
Penda is wise beyond his years as a ball-mover. He’s totally selfless and loves to spread the wealth. It’s evident on the stat sheet, as he averages 2.7 APG to 1.7 TOV. His 16.7 AST% grades out well for a forward. On the perimeter, Penda is able to effectively hot-potato the ball to keep defenses rotating. He’s also particularly adept at continuing advantages. He’ll take advantages of driving lanes that open up in tilted defenses, head downhill, and then punish the next rotation with a well-timed dish. He sees well on the go and utilizes his length to create advantageous passing angles. Beyond that, Penda operates with a level of flare, fluidity, and creativity that few players of his size can match. He’s able to mix in unique, unexpected passes that freeze defenses, but hee can also adjust and make on-the-fly decisions deep in the paint to get the best shot possible for his team. Penda has everything you could want from a role player when it comes to playmaking. He’s not going to dribble the air out of the ball or try to do too much—he’s going to reliably make the right decisions quickly. But inevitably, times arise throughout the course of games where players have to do more than the bare minimum. Not only can Penda stay above board in those circumstances—he can be downright devastating.
The Driving Dilemma
Right now, Penda’s biggest offensive problem area is his finishing ability as a driver. Per Synergy, has a 28.6 eFG% on his scoring possessions as a driver this season. On tape, a few things stick out. The first is that Penda’s first step is a bit slow. Additionally, he can get choppy with his strides to the basket. He doesn’t get from Point A to Point B quickly, which allows rim protectors to get into proper position and gives his defender time to get back into the play. There’s a somewhat surprising lack of craft downhill too, given how creative he can be as a passer. He doesn’t look to counter or change pace much downhill, instead trudging along at one speed into a contested rim attempt. Penda also forces looks from distant takeoff points at times, too. Not all hope is lost, though—his strength enables him to hold his line downhill, and when assisted, he’s proven that he can get it done as an interior finisher. By developing his attacking handle and maximizing his athleticism from a burst standpoint, there’s an avenue for Penda to attain respectability here.
Defensive Production
Noah Penda’s off-ball defense is a thing of beauty. He processes the game exceptionally quickly. At times, it almost feels like he’s moving in direct parallel with the flow of the opposing offense, stifling any potential advantages before they have the chance to arise. Penda does a great job of getting into position as the low man and preventing easy looks at the basket. He plays with great poise, consistently monitoring man and ball. Penda is often visibly communicating, talking and pointing things out to his teammates. When he closes out, he displays sublime balance. His timing allows him to make plays on the ball, whether it’s getting his hands on a poorly executed pass or rotating to nab a block. His 3.3 STL% and 5.6 BLK% are both outstanding numbers for a player his age.
He’s tough to deal with on the ball, too. His strength, agility, and timing enable him to play tight on the ball. He moves his hands quickly to mirror the movements of his opponents, and while he can be a bit heavy-footed at times, he’s also capable of playing light on his feet. A number of his blocks come from contested jumpers. He gets off the floor with the greatest of ease while using his ball-tracking skills to swat shots before they get anywhere near the basket. His combination of size and fluidity will make him a formidable NBA defender. Not only do his tools and instincts prevent him from being a hunting target, but they’ll make him a problematic opponent for a variety of player types. Add in his off-ball play, measurements, and feel, and Penda projects to be a valuable NBA defender.
Conclusion
I get a little nervous about Noah Penda at times. If his shot regresses back to where it had been coming into the year, it could put his draft stock and NBA future into question. Arguably the easiest way to get onto an NBA floor is to provide reliable floor spacing. If Penda can’t keep defenses honest, it will be difficult for the rest of his skill set to flourish. Additionally, his struggles as a downhill finisher can be frustrating. He’ll need to find a way to make defenses pay as a scorer when he gets chased off the line.
Still, coming out of this deep dive, I’m more nervous about the idea of missing on Noah Penda because I ranked him too low. It’s important to ask what a prospect would do on an NBA court, and for Penda, the answer is “all of the important role player stuff.” At 6’8” and 225 pounds, he has a great frame for the NBA. His defensive production is backed up by a fantastic set of film. He always knows where to be and he has the tools to guard multiple positions. His ability to impact an offense in a low-maintenance way makes him one of the more intriguing plug-and-play bets out there. He readily takes open shots, he can make good decisions quickly, and he finds ways to generate easy buckets inside.
I always say that, in the NBA Draft, you’re always having to bet on something. And with Noah Penda, the bet basically boils down to, “can you get this 6’8” guy, who’s strong and has a tremendous level of feel on both sides of the ball, to shoot three-pointers respectably on decent volume?” In order for Penda to achieve a long-term NBA career, he’ll probably only need to be an average shooter given how many other ways he can impact the game. I love that bet, and as of right now, I love Penda in the Top 20. If his shot regresses to his past levels, things could get complicated. But if his jumper holds steady and he can take some strides as a driver, I wouldn’t rule out a lottery-level grade.
Quick Hits
- I’m late to the party on the Collin Murray-Boyles performance against Auburn, but folks, it was impressive. I was blown away by how easily he managed to push Johni Broome backwards. He made arguably the best player in college basketball look like a mere mortal. Murray-Boyles’s power, combined with his snappy dribble counters, makes up one of the most devastating face-up games out there. His strength obviously helps defensively, and his ability to mirror ball-handlers always impresses me. While CMB’s willingness to shoot is often pointed out as an improvement area, the thing I really want to see him work on is his execution as a passer. At times, he can throw inaccurate passes, either when he rushes his process or gets too casual while delivering a high-degree-of-difficulty ball. He’s a capable passer, but I’d like to see him show more polish on that front. Still, Murray-Boyles’s interior finishing, defensive versatility, and unique skill set make him one of the most intriguing returning prospects in this class.
- It’s a crowded big man class, but add Tomislav Ivisic to the list of tall dudes I’m extremely interested in. He sets great screens, he’s super clever as a passer (1.8 APG to 1.2 TOV, 12.7 AST%), and his three-ball is a thing of beauty. Ivisic is launching 8.8 threes per 100 possessions and draining them at a 37% clip. It doesn’t get much better than that for a 7’1” college player. He has NBA range and gets his shots off quickly, displaying minimal mechanical dip off the catch. Plus, he still does dirty work on the offensive glass, grabbing 2.6 offensive boards per contest in conference play. His defense and rim protection had been maddening to me at times, but recently, it feels like he’s done a better job of positioning himself in ball screen coverage and making sure he has his hands up around the basket. I hope we continue to see strides there as we head down the stretch.
- After a series of starts and stops, it may all finally be coming together for Dawson Garcia. The 6’11” Minnesota graduate went off in an overtime win over Michigan, posting 27 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and two blocks—he also hit a game-winning buzzer-beater from deep behind the arc. Long heralded as a stretch big, Garcia is shooting a career-high 7.3 threes per 100 possessions and connecting on 36.1% of them. His downhill fluidity attacking closeouts has improved, and he’s posting his lowest turnover rate to date. He’s made strides on defense, too. While he still gets a bit laterally clunky at times, he’s moving far more naturally and doing a better job of staying in his stance on the perimeter. His 3.4 BLK% and 1.8 STL% are both career highs, too. Long guys who can stretch the floor and stay above board are always going to generate interest, and that’s Dawson Garcia. He’d fallen off the radar as an NBA prospect after a rough sophomore campaign at North Carolina, but he’s more than earned his way back onto it.
- Arizona’s Henri Veesaar popped off the screen during their game against Baylor this past week. The 7’0” junior had 19 points, seven rebounds, two blocks, and two steals in a mere 19 minutes. He’s an awesome lob target who gets off the floor easily and has an enormous catch radius. When he can’t dunk it, he displays soft touch and is willing to shoot an open three (6-for-19 from deep on the year). He uses his hands well in ball screen defense, allowing him to collect steals at a higher clip than most bigs (2.3 STL%). Veesaar needs to add strength, as he can struggle to hold his own on the interior defensively, but his sheer size, mobility, and touch make him an intriguing proposition.
- On the Arizona tip… I know KJ Lewis has struggled mightily from three this year. He’s shooting 22.2% from deep on low volume. But I’m still interested long-term. Lewis is a nightmare at the point of attack who loves to get into the ball (3.2 STL%). He flies off the floor in a way few 6’4” guards can, allowing him to contribute as a shot-blocker (3.2 BLK%) and rebounder (4.3 RPG). He’s also a dazzling passer who can whip creative dishes to teammates on the go. I know how tricky the NBA can be for guards who struggle to shoot, but Lewis’ physicality, athleticism, and feel still give him a real chance to make it work there some day.
- Cincinnati’s Daniel Skillings Jr. has one of the more interesting statistical profiles out there. The 6’6” junior can do a little bit of everything. He’s got a smooth dribble game, he sees the floor pretty well, and he’s knocking down his threes this year (37.8% from three on 4.5 3PA/game). Defensively, he has a great sense of when to gamble off the ball (3.3 STL%, 3.6 BLK%) and he covers ground well. The funky nature of his jumper release and shaky foot speed will likely keep him in school for another year, but his size and versatility make him an interesting name to monitor.
- It’s Sicko Time! Let’s talk about Carter Welling. He’s a 6’11” sophomore at Utah Valley. He’s older for his class, as he served on an LDS mission after completing high school. Still, guys with his skill set aren’t easy to come by. He can shoot, for starters, knocking down 37.1% of his threes on 5.4 attempts per 100 possessions. He’s also the rare big man who can drive downhill and attack a closeout. He’s downright bouncy when he gets to the cup. That lift shows up on defense, too. He’s a nimble mover who flies off the floor and routinely swats shots around the basket (2.2 BPG, 9.3 BLK%). The first big improvement area for him will be adding strength, as he’s a bit too easy to knock around right now. The second will be his floor vision, as he struggles with tunnel vision at times and has a hard time when swarmed by multiple defenders. He’s got time, though. And as we learned from Branden Carlson, an NBA team will give looks to shooting big men with some athletic juice, even if they enter the league older than their peers.
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