November 2024 Scouting Roundtable
The No Ceilings crew gathers to discuss some of the biggest 2025 NBA Draft story lines.
Let’s take a wild guess at why you are here. You probably started to get intrigued with the NBA Draft before saying to yourself: “Come on, the NBA season just started…it’s WAY too EARLY to think about the draft.” Then, as the days go by, you find the itch has become too much to handle.
An important reminder to all basketball fans: It’s NEVER too early to talk about the draft.
The final month of the calendar year is rapidly approaching. Over the years at No Ceilings, we’ve liked to make it a point to look back and track what’s going on in the draft world. Things change rapidly in the world of basketball. One hot streak can see a player’s stock start buzzing. One cold stretch could see the warning sirens firing up.
Numerous players have made loud statements to start the cycle in the world of college basketball. Others have gotten off to much slower starts. As always, the upcoming months will be important to monitor some of the “movement” players in the world of scouting. For now, our No Ceilings team gives you their roundtable answers looking back at the most recent month of college hoops.
1. Which player has been the biggest riser on your board in the past month?
Rucker: Alabama freshman Labaron Philon for me. We see this every cycle and it’s one of the best parts about scouting. There’s always a party crasher that cements themselves as a legit prospect to start paying close attention to in the basketball world. The film is legit for Philon, who has been red hot to start the season. There’s some fantastic wiggle to his game. He can set you up with a couple of moves before lulling you to sleep and exploding downhill. Philon will cool down eventually (right?) but if he can continue to put together this type of impressive tape, he’s going to be a popular riser in the draft world.
Albert: Egor Demin. I was high on Egor, but heading into the season I had him just outside the Top 10. Considering the film that we had from him in Europe, I was cautious, and I have no regrets about it. The talent, influence, and size were undeniable. I just wanted to see what it looked like in college basketball, and more importantly, I wanted to see how his shot was progressing. After watching his first five games for BYU, it’s clear that he’s adapting well to college basketball, and there is no reason for me to keep him out of my top five. Five games is still a tiny sample size, but it’s exactly what I wanted to see. He’s hit 13 of 23 three-pointers (56.5%) so far, has flashed all of the awesome passing visions we knew would translate, and has been a playmaker on the defensive side of the ball, averaging over three stocks per game.
Maxwell: I was pretty skeptical of how Will Riley would scale up. I still worry about his frame and how he’ll translate defensively at the next level. But an 18-point, nine-rebound outing against Alabama really put me at ease. His length goes a long way defensively, and on offense, he’s a real deal shot-maker with passing chops. I was taking a cautious approach with my initial ranking, but I think he’s pretty clearly someone who needs to be taken very seriously at this point.
Metcalf: Labaron Philon by a mile. I know it’s early, but he looks like an easy first rounder at this point. His playmaking, rim pressure, and crafty on-ball creation has been astounding, I’ll be really intrigued to see how the shot continues to progress. So far, it hasn’t been a real weapon for him, and he’s still been this effective.
Corey: Definitely Labaron Philon. I wasn’t thinking that Philon would be a 2025 prospect, but that kid has been on one. Not only has he had no issue adapting to the speed of the game, he’s looked like he’s played at the speed for years. His pace rocks, playing slow to fast and high to low. He just moves the way NBA guys move. I’ll be monitoring how consistent the shot is, but he has all the tools of a Top 20 guard.
Rowan: I’d watched Labaron Philon’s play at Link Academy during preseason scouting, but as I noted in my first Ouija Wonderings, I was worried he wouldn’t get the minutes to prove his mettle. Well, I was wrong! Philon’s already forced his way into the starting lineup for the Crimson Tide and showed the moxie and verve off the dribble that made him so dangerous as a high school star. He’s been knifing through defenses easily and distributing at a high level, demonstrating the kind of quick adjustment that NBA teams will surely respect. If he can keep this up while also hitting more of his pull-up shots from deep, it’ll be impossible to keep Philon out of first-round conversations.
Nathan: I agree with both popular selections here of Labaron Philon and Egor Demin, so I’ll go away from those two and say Tre Johnson at Texas. While I wouldn’t say he’s climbed up my board from second round consideration like Philon, Johnson has solidified himself for the time being as one of the better guards after Dylan Harper and Demin. A 6’6” combo guard who can get his shot from any spot on the floor, Johnson has had to take on a massive offensive load for the Longhorns. After seeing Texas in person, I’m not convinced that’s a team to be reckoned with in the Big 12 without Johnson. I want to keep seeing some more flashes from a passing perspective, not to mention a tad more aggressiveness in hunting contact to get to the line, but I’ve been impressed with Johnson’s separation ability as a shooter. He’s in mid-lotto territory right now.
Nick: He wasn’t the biggest riser in terms of the raw number of places higher he is on my personal board, so I struggled a bit with this one, but Egor Demin had the most monumental rise on my board. Going from “probable lottery pick” to “clear Top 5 selection” is a bigger leap than going from “undrafted” to “second round range” in my mind, so I feel like Demin has to be the pick for me here. His playmaking has been sensational for BYU in the early going, as has his staggering efficiency with his own scoring. Demin has been the brightest star of the first month of the season; he’s running out of room to climb in terms of his acclaim, but it’s hard to bet against him after this start to the campaign.
2. Which player has been the biggest faller on your board in the past month?
Rucker: It’s always tough the opening month when some freshmen don’t hit the ground running. I’m still a big fan of both Karter Knox and Darren Harris, but the slow start to the year has seen them moving down my board rather quickly. When you’re joining a talented team, there’s always going to be a battle for minutes, as well as trying to adjust on the fly to a new fit. Draft season is a long one, and it will be interesting to see what the rotations look like in a couple of months.
Albert: Nolan Traore hasn’t plummeted down my boards, but he has seen the most significant fall down my board. Heading into the season, I had him locked in my top five. After seeing him practice, scrimmage, and then play in the Nike Hoop Summit game, I was convinced Traore would be a top-five pick in the 2025 Draft. It was not until recently that I realized that my experience of watching him in person had too much of an influence on my evaluation of him as a prospect. As great as he was that week, I had to pump the brakes and take a macro view of his game and, more importantly, his production. Many times, we excuse too much with prospects that play professionally. As important as it is for us to acknowledge that they’re playing against grown men, we also have to be objective and realize the move to the NBA is against even better grown men. The cold, hard truth is that Traore hasn’t shot the ball well from anywhere on the floor. He’s currently shooting 36.4% from the floor, 42.1% on two-pointers, 29.7% on three-pointers, and a True Shooting percentage of 47.4%. As much as I like Traore as a prospect, he shot this badly last season as well. If the efficiency doesn’t come up with him, it’ll be almost impossible even to consider him in the Top 5 heading into the draft. The speed, passing, and size of a lead guard will keep you interested, but the shooting really needs to come around.
Maxwell: Kwame Evans. I absolutely adored his size, ability to play within the flow of the game, and all-around production. While he’s struggled to put the ball in the basket, I’m more concerned by the fact that he doesn’t really look to have taken a step forward in any other area. There are going to be games where the shot doesn’t fall. But the fact that everything else looks similar or worse to how it did a year ago has been very disappointing.
Metcalf: Darren Harris and Isaiah Evans. I really liked Harris in high school and thought Evans might have an outside chance of breaking into the first round. Unfortunately, neither has really gotten any minutes up to this point. Unless that changes, both look more like next year guys.
Corey: The guys who have fallen on my board the most are the guys who haven’t yet been able to carve out a consistent role. That group includes Duke’s Darren Harris (play him!), Tennessee’s Cam Carr, and Arkansas’s Karter Knox. I haven’t sold off my stock on these guys just yet, but it doesn’t currently look as if they are 2025 guys.
Rowan: There was always going to be a period of adjustment at Arkansas, but both Johnell Davis and Karter Knox have borne the brunt of it stock-wise. Davis looks overwhelmed by the new team and competitive slate, which isn’t optimistic for his long-term pro prospects. He’s too good not to bounce back, but my top-45 preseason grade on him will need some readjustment. Similarly, I was high on Karter Knox entering the year, but he’s barely seen the floor despite the Razorbacks’s lack of depth. While I still believe he has a lottery-level upside, it would be unfair to the prospects who have shown up and shown out not to drop Knox down into later first-round consideration.
Nathan: There are a few prospects who just haven’t gotten the chance to prove themselves yet who will inevitably slide down the board, but based on those who have played enough minutes so far to impact their draft stock, I’ll go with both Donnie Freeman and Kwame Evans. In the case of Freeman, I’ve also been able to see him up close. While he had some defensive battles in the post against JT Toppin the other night in Syracuse-Texas Tech, Freeman’s offensive role has been lost in the shuffle so far as he adapts to the college game—not to mention that he hasn’t been put in a good position to succeed so far. Freeman isn’t playing with guards who are known to carve up space and dish it out to others on the perimeter, and Eddie Lampkin is taking any potential post touches away from Freeman. He’s going to have to get after it himself on the offensive glass and in transition if he wants to produce on offense. As for Evans, he’s seemingly taken a step back in terms of confidence and trust earned as he’s coming off the bench for Oregon playing sporadic minutes and not popping off the screen in said minutes. He still has a lot of talent as a forward who can handle, pass, and score off the bounce. But as for now, that’s more of an idea than proven production, and it’ll be interesting to monitor if he can right the ship as the season progresses.
Nick: I really bought in to the idea that Coleman Hawkins turned a corner last season. He made a leap as a three-point shooter while also taking a leap from the free-throw line–further evidence that the shooting improvement was not just a mirage. He also cut down on his turnovers pretty significantly, and he was a much more consistent player overall than he had been in his first three years at Illinois. I had Hawkins in the top half of my second round heading into the season, and I hoped that he could do big things after transferring to Kansas State. Now? I’ve dropped him out of my Top 60 after his brutal start to the season. I’ve sold and bought back Coleman Hawkins stock many times already over the course of his five years in college, but this might be the time that I’m out for good. Please don’t check back in two months when I have him as my biggest riser in January because I have the memory of a goldfish.
3. Every prospect goes through ups and downs on the court. Sometimes, a hot streak is a run of good luck; other times, it’s sustainable growth. Which prospect on a hot streak stood out to you? Is it real, or a mirage?
Rucker: I’ve got to give some love to Arkansas junior wing Adou Thiero. There were plenty of fans around No Ceilings last year when it came to Thiero as a prospect, as he debuted at 46th on our first BIG Board last year. After some impressive flashes, Thiero ended up staying another year to work on his game before transferring to Arkansas. After averaging 7.2 points per game last year, Thiero is currently averaging 18.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 steals per game. He is a madman on the court who plays with a great motor. If the outside shot comes around, he’s going to be a popular sleeper. He was at 36.4% before going 0-2 last game, which saw his percentage drop to 28.6%, so yes, there’s a lot of patience required in that part of his game. But, it is important to also point out that he’s almost surpassed his total three point attempts from last year (22).
Albert: In the immortal words of Coach Dennis Green, “They are who we thought they were!”. Dylan Harper has been awesome to start his college career. With all the attention on Ace Bailey and the strange nit-picking of his game, Dylan Harper has been lost in the sauce. Harper has been excellent, and more importantly, he’s been consistently good. This is not me claiming that he’s been perfect, but the lack of discourse around his game can be seen as a positive because there hasn’t been a ton to critique. The loss to Kennesaw State was an ugly one, but you’re going to get losses like that when you have a top-heavy roster. No disrespect to the rest of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, but they don’t have a ton of talent outside of their star freshman duo. Harper has shown all the play-making and tempo-setting you want from a lead guard. He’s been a bully when he’s needed to be. He’s not shooting it at a high clip yet from outside, but he also hasn’t taken a ton of them. Dylan Harper will be in high demand when the draft rolls around, and he’s had the start that we’ve all been hoping for.
Maxwell: I’m very excited to monitor Kon Knueppel throughout the season. I was really low on him relative to consensus prior to the start of the year. After his performances against Maine and Army, I thought I’d been too hard on him. And while he was good in the Arizona game, he’s struggled to score efficiently against Kentucky and Kansas. Throw in a limited defensive impact, and I’m still not quite sure what to make of him. He’s undoubtedly a fantastic shooter and smart decision-maker, but I’m wondering whether or not his first two performances are more indicative of who he is, or if it’s the games where he’s had a harder time.
Rich: Mackenzie Mgbako, and I think it’s at least shades of being real. He’s a fantastic shooter who showed up on most statistical filters, and he’s doing exactly what is necessary for a sophomore jump.
Metcalf: Kam Jones is playing unreal ball right now. There were a lot of questions about how he’d fair stepping into the primary creator role with Tyler Kolek going to the NBA, but Marquette hasn’t missed a beat. Instead of looking like just a fun spark plug, Jones looks like one of the best guards in the country. The fact that we saw similar flashes of this from him last year suggests that the increased role isn’t affecting him at all.
Corey: I don’t think any prospect, freshman or upperclassman, has been scorching the nets to ash more than Ohio State’s John Mobley Jr. I was pretty high on Mobley coming into this cycle, writing about him as a potential breakout guy before the season, but I was still unsure of what his role could look like. Then he lit up Texas in game one and hasn’t cooled down since. I am all the way in. I am not being hyperbolic when I say that Mobley is one of the best shooting prospects that I have ever scouted. Next time you watch Ohio State, don’t just watch Mobley and the shots he taking, watch how his gravity is affecting the mapping of the floor. Teams are guarding him at half court, affording Ohio State players with the most space they’ve ever seen. The percentages may drop some, but the kid is the real deal, and this is no hot streak. I have Mobley in my lotto.
Rowan: Derik Queen has wasted no time asserting himself in his college career. He’s leading Maryland in points and blocks per game while ranking second on the team in rebounds and assists, all while scoring clutch points to keep the Terrapins afloat. I had some concerns about Queen’s height entering the season, but he’s quickly addressed those and also flashed more dribble creation from the wing than I expected. Although this could just be a scorching start for him, none of it feels flukey; thus, I’m willing to bet that this is what we should expect this year from Derik Queen. That means he’ll safely be a first round pick and could rise toward the top of the draft class due to his youth and skill combination.
Nathan: Dylan Harper has been on an absolute TEAR for Rutgers to start the year. He had arguably his best performance yet against Notre Dame, dropping a cool 36 points while filling the stat sheet in other departments. Harper has done everything within his power to help the Scarlet Knights win games. Truthfully, if he wasn’t at the controls consistently putting pressure on the rim and forcing defenses to react to his every move, this team wouldn’t be close to five wins already on the short season. If he continues to put this team on his back, rack up wins, and look like a bonafide primary option while doing so, then the race near the top of the draft becomes very, very interesting.
Nick: Even after down shooting nights in his two most recent games, Tre Johnson is shooting the cover off the ball to start the season. His 48/46/83 shooting splits are stellar, but not in a way that feels unsustainable. Shooting was never the question with Johnson, and he’s answered the questions about how he would translate to the college game pretty definitively. His 50%+ start from distance was bound to fall off a bit, but shooting in the 40% range from deep is well within the realm of possibility for Johnson.
4. On the flip side, even the best prospects go through cold spells. One of our favorite sayings at No Ceilings (courtesy of Tyler Rucker) is: “it just takes time.” Which prospect are you being patient with this month?
Rucker: Carter Bryant. The Arizona Wildcats are a bit all over the place right now. They are clearly needing to shape their rotation up a bit and Bryant continues to look like a player that is trending upward when it comes to a potential minutes increase. Although the production won’t wow you right now, I think Bryant has impressed in his limited minutes on the court, especially when it comes to the defensive flashes. If Bryant can continue to make an impact, he should be a name that starts to heat up in the upcoming months.
Albert: Darren Harris. I hope he gets a shot this season. The guy is a flamethrower waiting to be unleashed.
Maxwell: Alex Condon at Florida. He’s definitely taken a step forward this year, making better decisions and scoring more efficiently as a whole. However, I still think there’s more for him to tap into, and I can see him continuing to get better as the year continues.
Rich: Do the Duke guys that aren’t in the rotation count? Otherwise, Bryson Tucker is just scratching the surface.
Metcalf: Jalil Bethea’s season has been less than ideal so far. There’s too much talent there, though, for this type of minute share to continue all year.
Corey: I’m not entirely sure that Hugo Gonzalez’s role is going to change all that much, given the veteran roster he is playing behind for Real Madrid, but I still believe in him as a prospect. He has good size, he’s a plus athlete, he plays hard defensively, he just needs to show some growth as a shooter. He may not end up being the potential Top 10 guy he was coming into the year, but I still believe the tools and resume make Hugo a worthy swing for a team.
Rowan: Drake Powell has spent the first few games of his college career learning the value of patience and persistence. Given their veteran core, he was never going to star on this UNC team, but I doubt he imagined only playing twenty minutes a game and hitting just 35.7% of his twos and 16.7% of his threes. While the numbers aren’t great, I’m not worried about Powell’s long-term projections as an NBA player. He’s still averaging 2.0 stocks per game, shooting 83.3% on his free throws, and his inefficiency is skewed by his limited playing time. With more consistency, expect Powell to bounce back and look like the dominant two-way force he was in high school.
Nathan: I grow more concerned about Drake Powell by the game, as he hasn’t been able to impact the game in limited minutes much at all, and it’s not apparent he’s going to get a larger role as the season progresses for North Carolina. The tools are still there for Powell defensively, but the offense is very much a work in progress—particularly his outside shot. There’s plenty of time for him to break out and become an important bench contributor, and I’ll hold out hope that’s where he can find his footing come January-February.
Nick: I was expecting Caleb Foster to seize the reins and take on a bigger role in the Duke offense this season. I did not expect him to average fewer minutes per game this year than last season–nor did I expect him to start the season cold from three-point range. We’re still well within range for “small sample size season” right now, so I don’t expect Foster to remain at 31.6% from distance all year. He’s also started all five games for Duke, so he’ll certainly have the opportunity to turn things around. Still, I was hoping to see a statement game or two from Foster in the early going, and he’s instead been very quiet.
5. Which game next month are you most excited to watch?
Rucker: UConn vs Texas (December 8th). Tre Johnson going up against a talented Huskies team that is suddenly going to be foaming at the mouth? I’m in.
Albert: Give me Auburn at Duke. It should be a really good test for this Duke team against a tough Auburn squad led by Johni Broome.
Maxwell: Tennessee vs. Illinois on December 14th. A lot of dudes to watch on both ends who should provide difficult tests for one another.
Rich: Rutgers at Ohio State.
Metcalf: Tennessee vs. Illinois on 12/14 could be an incredible matchup with a lot of prospects on both teams.
Corey: I’ll be live and direct for the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden for a fun doubleheader with UNC and UCLA and then Kentucky and Ohio State. There may not be any Top 10 prospects in these games (maybe one…read question three), but there are a number of draftable prospects that get to play under the bright lights of MSG. Seeing these guys up close will be a valuable data point for me.
Rowan: The “Battle in Seattle” as Kentucky vs Gonzaga is aptly named, is a veritable feast of fascinating prospects to scout. The Wildcats bring in sharpshooting guards like Koby Brea and Jaxson Robinson while boasting an intriguing big in Amari Williams. Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh are also fun fliers to keep track of, and Mark Pope has this Kentucky team playing in a completely different way than ever before. The pickings are a bit slimmer for Gonzaga, but I still am excited to see Michael Ajayi thriving in his new bench role for the Zags. The other potential prospects like Ryan Nembhard, Dusty Stromer, Nolan Hickman, Braden Huff, Khalif Battle, and Ben Gregg all have size, consistency, or age concerns but have all contributed to Gonzaga’s hot early start to the season. Any of them could bloom on a big stage and set themselves up for more draft consideration, which makes this clash between two deep teams a must-watch for hoops sickos.
Nathan: I’ll side with Maxwell on this one and go Tennessee-Illinois despite my itch to also get my eyes on that Auburn-Duke game coming up shortly here on the calendar. Another fast riser on my board is Will Riley, who has done much more in terms of putting the ball on the deck, attacking, and drawing fouls than I had initially thought coming in. Billed as a wing shooter, which he has been, Riley’s more complete scoring game has caught my eye. On the Tennessee side, Igor Milicic has put more of his game together on both ends, and Chaz Lanier remains a fun sleeper to track in the second round as an experienced bucket-getter. Can Kasparas Jakucionis, Riley, and company put together a strong offensive performance against a tough SEC defense? I’ll have my eyes glued to that game.
Nick: I’m going with Auburn vs. Duke on December 4th. Cooper Flagg and friends against Johni Broome patrolling the paint and Tahaad Pettiford dicing up defenders? What’s not to love?