Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story with Boogie Fland
Boogie Fland had a rocky season with Arkansas, but his playmaking prowess, defensive competence, and scoring flashes still make him one of the most intriguing guards in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Coming into this season, Boogie Fland was one of the top freshmen point guards in the country. Unfortunately, between some shaky numbers and a season-ending injury, his season with the Arkansas Razorbacks didn’t go as planned. Despite that, Fland still remains one of the more intriguing point guards in the 2025 NBA Draft and a rare case where a lot of the numbers don’t necessarily match the tape.
A major aspect of draft scouting is projecting a player’s ability to improve in certain areas and the likelihood of that improvement. This process involves using a combination of analytics and film. The very best prospects tend to have dominant samples of both, which makes the scouting process rather easy. When it gets really tricky is when the statistical profiles don’t match the tape. That seems to be the case with Fland.
Fland has some really encouraging numbers, but he also has some pretty disastrous ones. Fland has some worrisome scoring numbers, but the film that shows his process is generally encouraging. On the defensive end, he has some really encouraging numbers but some problematic film. Fland is a perplexing evaluation because there are really strong arguments on either side of loving him or not seeing it. This contradiction is what makes his injury all the worse aside from the fact that injuries suck. We’ve been able to see countless freshmen adapt, grow, and improve throughout the season, but we were robbed of seeing Fland make that same journey. If you don’t see it at all with Fland, I understand, but I don’t agree.
Every time I watch Fland’s film, I come away really enjoying his process on both ends of the floor. He isn’t perfect, but the way he gets to his spots, initiates the offense, makes decisions, and defends in a team context is what you want from your point guard. Unfortunately, the end results that influence a lot of his numbers just don’t mirror his process. While I remain optimistic about Fland’s process, which we’ll dive into plenty here, I also have to acknowledge some of the very real concerns.
Scoring
One of the biggest concerns with Fland’s game is his scoring. He did average 15.1 points in his 18 games, but it was incredibly inefficient as he had an effective field goal rate of just 46.6. If Fland does stay in the draft, he would be trying to be just the fifth freshman point guard to be drafted in the first round with a sub-48 effective field goal rate and measure in at 6’3” or shorter since 2008 (Tyler Ennis, Cole Anthony, Tyrese Maxey, and Marquis Teague).