"One Year Doesn't Tell the Story"
"One Year Doesn't Tell the Story"
Justin Edwards has become a wildcard after a rollercoaster freshman season. NBA Draft History tells us we need to be open-minded about the path ahead.
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
Poetic works spoken by the great Mike Tyson that can echo loudly when it comes to everyday life. The same philosophy can be pointed at prospects that come into the light with each incoming NBA draft class.
We’ve seen this movie before. The actors change, but the script continues to result in a similar plot that ends with a challenging result.
Each year, a new slate of talented individuals prepare to take the next step in their basketball journeys. Each year, we find ourselves zeroing in on the “hyped” names that could make a splash over the upcoming cycle of hoops.
Some hit the ground running, showcasing what has made them such a well-known name in the basketball world. After receiving prestigious honors as amateur players, these individuals continue to have success on a bigger stage, carrying that momentum over into a chance to be selected in an upcoming NBA Draft.
But then there’s the other side of the fence…
Not every player has their happy ending. Prospects that were once viewed as potential “one-and-done” talents struggle to find their footing in their first year of a higher competition setting. Recent history can teach us a valuable lesson. So can the words of scouts that have given me advice years ago as I took this evaluating journey seriously.
“One year doesn’t tell the story.”
THE LESSON
In recent draft classes, there have been plenty of names who have fallen under this category. Some of those names have fallen in draft classes, compared to their preseason projections. One player that should be fresh in the mind of some is Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels.
Coming out of high school, the 6’10” McDaniels was the seventh-ranked prospect by ESPN. That honor saw McDaniels projected by some as a Top 10 projection in preseason mock drafts. Heading to Washington for his freshman year, McDaniels would struggle to find his groove.
Jaden McDaniels (Washington) 2019-20:
13.0 PTS, 5.8 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 1.4 BLK
40.5 FG%, 33.9 3P%, 76.3 FT%
McDaniels presented my first “headache” as an evaluator. It was the one tape that I constantly kept coming back to. I believed in the tools, but couldn’t find myself diving all the way in. That was when I spoke to a highly regarded scout for hours, pouring through the entire 2020 NBA Draft class.
Eventually, I had to get an answer. “Why can’t I buy in on Jaden McDaniels?”
That scout echoed a message I had heard over and over again…
“One year doesn’t tell the story.”
It resulted in a conversation about seeing these players outside of a collegiate setting. I was told that McDaniels was participating in predraft workouts, dominating everyone he stepped in front of in those settings. Again, I found myself diving back into the film room, trying to reset my mind off the popular lesson I had been passed on from numerous evaluators throughout the industry.
Eventually, McDaniels would be selected 28th overall by the Los Angeles Lakers, who would trade him to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Years later, McDaniels has found his groove, becoming a key piece of one of the top teams in the league.
In scouting, evaluators are always looking to learn. We look back on previous draft classes after years have gone by and look for any piece of evidence that can be shoved in our faces to improve our abilities. It wouldn’t take long before I found myself dancing with a same situation again.
THE TEST
Two years later, a similar story to McDaniels started to develop in the draft space: a 6’7” forward was ranked 12th overall by ESPN, and was getting projected by some as a potential Top 5 candidate in mock drafts.
That player was UCLA commit Peyton Watson.
Watson was my biggest test as an evaluator. The eye test told me there was something special waiting to be unlocked. But it would take everything in my power to be convinced of a player who was struggling to find the court despite being a highly-touted recruit.
Peyton Watson (UCLA) 2021-22:
3.3 PTS, 2.9 REB, 0.8 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK
32.2 FG%, 22.6 3P%, 68.8 FT%
If I was going to believe in a player with this lack of production, I had to look back and learn from my McDaniels experience.
I had to go see this in person.
Watson stood out to me immediately with his length and fluidity. He would only play nine minutes in the game I saw him. But in those nine minutes, he convinced me of his potential as an NBA player. Watson would check into the game and immediately made his impact felt. A steal. A block. A floater in the lane. A three-pointer with confidence. With his size and athletic tools, he sat with me as a clear NBA talent who just needed someone to believe in this type of project’s potential.
As I made the lengthy drive back from Las Vegas to Phoenix, I couldn’t get the same message out of my head. “One year doesn’t tell the story.” Watson would eventually be selected 30th overall by the Denver Nuggets. After some grooming in the G League during his rookie year, Watson looks to be a potential high-upside piece for one of the top teams in the league who aren’t rushing the potential of their two-way demon.
There’s always going to be a player in each class that can find themselves falling into this same story. More often than not, these players don’t have the storybook ending that results in defying the odds at the NBA level.
But it’s important to understand that scouts and executives are well aware of the potential one-and-done that didn’t live up to the hype. These evaluators haven’t been keeping an eye on these players for just one season. They’ve studied and gotten a feel for what these players have been since their days in the high school ranks. They are doing their homework to get the background and intel about whether or not these players can find a way to earn their role at the next level.
THE FINAL EXAM
That brings us to the 2024 class and one of the biggest wildcards to monitor moving forward…
Heading into the year, plenty in the scouting world were keeping a close eye on Kentucky Wildcats freshman forward Justin Edwards. That’s what happens when, at one time, you were considered the number one recruit in the country. Edwards was a high school talent oozing with potential.
When you found yourself going through a checklist of a potential exhilirating wing…Edwards was it. He had the size at 6’8” paired with the fluidity to give you great positional versatility on the perimeter. With a smooth shooting-stroke from outside, it looked as if Edwards was the type of wing that would at least be “safe” while everything else continued to be unlocked.
Despite being ranked first overall at one point, Edwards would end up #3 in ESPN’s Top 100 high school recruits. The Kentucky Wildcats wing showcased some promising signs in the preseason during the team’s Global Jam extravaganza.
But as the 2023-24 season progressed, it seemed as if the clock was ticking for Edwards to start finding his groove. Plenty were waiting for the prospect from high school to start to cement himself as a legit force.
If you look back at the splits throughout the year, the results might surprise you if you’ve been following the draft closely.
Did you realize that Justin Edwards finished with double-digit scoring nights in six of his first eight games? From the year I watched, I would have thought that number was extremely low. Sure, you’re probably rolling your eyes and wondering what’s so exciting about that. The bigger point I’m putting out here is the fact that we had built up such lofty expectations for Edwards as a freshman.
Yes. Myself included.
Now I know what you’re thinking. So let me just put it out there before you even start to roll your eyes: Is Justin Edwards in the same conversation athletically as guys like Jaden McDaniels and Peyton Watson? That answer is no.
But understanding the path all parties have traveled can help us keep an open-minded approach to why teams could still be intrigued with the upside.
Justin Edwards (Kentucky) 2023-24:
First 20 Games:
7.7 PTS, 3.8 REB, 0.8 AST, 0.8 BLK
44.2 FG%, 28.6 3P%, 70.8 FT%
Last 11 Games:
10.7 PTS, 2.8 REB, 1.2 AST, 1.1 STL
56.3 FG%, 47.2 3P%, 84.0 FT%
Edwards struggled with confidence throughout the year. It’s not difficult to see that when evaluating the tape and reading his comments throughout the year. That’s what happens when you’re a freshman that comes in with lofty expectations. That realization echoes loudly when you realize you’re playing for one of the most prestigious programs in the country.
But as the year progressed, things started to trend in the right direction. The light didn’t start to shine as brightly as we all were hoping. But the improvements were a start. The hope is that it’s the start of a lengthy trajectory in the right direction.
Unlocking the potential of Justin Edwards is going to take patience. Like building a house from the ground up, it’s going to require planning. If you try to skip steps or rush the process, the foundation could fall.
Clips like this one above didn’t come around often this year. When they did, you found yourself wondering if you just saw a UFO soaring through the sky. Those are the types of plays that keep you up at night. Not just because what Edwards did was out of this world, but because it looked composed and confident, and it was a teaser of something else waiting to be found.
It’s not difficult to see why so many were intrigued with Edwards as a prospect coming into the year. It’s also not difficult to see why some are still refusing to sell all of their stock. Yes, Edwards is a bit older than normal freshmen. He will be turning 21 years old in December; let’s not be age “haters” here.
Instead of focusing on what we didn’t “get” this year… let’s try to look at this another way.
What are the areas in which Edwards can try to lean on early in his NBA career? Despite a roller coaster of a year, Edwards projects to be a potential floor-spacing asset at 6’8” with a beauitful looking shot from deep.
There’s a world in which a 3-and-D prospect can still be discovered here. It’s going to require Edwards looking like the player at the end of the season early on.
The biggest difference with Edwards in the second half of the season was the confidence. Too many times to start the year, you could see a player who was simply trying to find his role amongst a talented roster. You found yourself wanting to see a little anger or passion from the talented freshman.
As the year progressed, that sort of confidence started to creep its way into the spotlight. It ignited in a big way when Edwards dropped a 28-point outing against Alabama while going 10-for-10 from the field. Four games later, Edwards would go into Tennessee and post a 16-point, six-rebound, three-assist performance in a huge road win.
It wasn’t just that the outside shot was falling for Edwards. It was that there was determination and no hesitation to let it fly—something that wasn’t there earlier in the year.
There’s some room for improvement for Edwards when it comes to his attack off the bounce. When it comes to creating, you could say he’s the vanilla ice cream of creators. He’s not going to find himself on any AND 1 mixtapes. Edwards can get downhill and navigate traffic when he needs to. He’s a calculated attacker. If the first look isn’t there, Edwards isn’t afraid to drive and kick or keep the possession rolling.
Against Alabama, Edwards had a different mindset. He looked for any opportunity to be aggressive and get to the hoop. It’s a simple transition take, but too many times earlier in the year, Edwards didn’t look to have THIS type of focus on what he wanted to accomplish on any take.
Again, another example of just a complete shift of mentality from Justin Edwards. We saw examples of this to start the year when Kentucky participated in their Global Jam. But that showing never seemed to carry over into the regular season. It wasn’t a lack of ability to do so from Edwards. It was more scouts just wanted to see him attempt it more.
When scouting, I’m always trying to see two things. What do you look like when nothing is going right? I like to personally call that “the off night.” The other? What type of player do you become when everything is clicking? We never want to get too high or too low from just one outing, regardless of it being good or bad.
But, the Alabama game showed teases of what type of player Edwards could become. The confidence was cooking. Edwards wasn’t looking timid. He was on the attack, hunting the ball with every opportunity. Smooth but simple cross above to get downhill and finish with creativity around the basket.
Last year, I got the opportunity to see Justin Edwards at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland. During one of the scrimmages that week, Edwards shocked me with one area. It was an area I didn’t see “develop” this year at Kentucky. But part of me still believes that a coaching staff can unlock it.
The defense.
Seeing him in person, Edwards showcased the potential to be a dangerous on-ball defender. He used his feet well and understood how to use his size and length to be disruptive. Buying into that potential was part of the reason why I was so high on him coming into the 2023-24 NCAA season.
That type of “flashes” just never seemed to come around this year. Could it have been just a tease? Perhaps. Could there still be something left undiscovered? You bet.
I’m not saying that Edwards has the potential to come in and be a high defensive-upside talent like Jaden McDaniels or Peyton Watson, as mentioned earlier. I’m simply saying that I believe there’s a project that could get some developmental staffs excited to get to the gym every day.
This year has featured a wide range of surprises when it comes to the 2024 NBA draft class. Some have been pleasant surprises; others have been disappointing ones.
But history has shown us that we cannot overlook the previous foundation of a young basketball career. Justin Edwards came into the year with the lights shining bright on his potential. He was viewed as a potential Top 5 selection with the tools to be a dynamic 3-and-D weapon.
Those expectations have fallen short, but that doesn’t mean that the next chapter of his basketball story can’t shock us all.
Because after all…
“One year doesn’t tell the story.”