Outsider's Edge: Projecting V.J. Edgecombe's Offensive Role as an NBA player

Stephen Gillaspie breaks down the offensive game of Baylor's V.J. Edgecombe, and how it projects to the NBA.

At this point of the draft cycle, you probably have heard about V.J. Edgecombe. Depending on what point of the draft cycle you started evaluating this class, you may have a different perception of him. At the beginning of the “offseason” (if there is such a thing with scouting anymore), V.J. was widely considered a Top 5 prospect within this class. His elite athleticism was the aspect of his game that many were high on—especially coming on the heels of what we saw from the Thompson twins during their rookie seasons. There were some questions coming into his collegiate season that were centered around his outside shot and his measurables.

By February, V.J. went from being the #4 prospect on the $DRFT IPOs, to the #5 prospect. That may sound like an insignificant decline, but he was behind Kasparas Jakucionis—who is now the 11th prospect according to the $DRFT rankings. What’s interesting is, through the end of January, V.J. put up shooting splits of 44/39/77—answering the outside shooting questions to some degree. When March rolled around, V.J saw his stock rise back to being the consensus fourth player. By this point, Edgecombe was respected for his athleticism, defense, and his improved shot. While some questions were beginning to be answered, there were still doubts about his handle translating—and, still, his size.

Fast-forward to now, and V.J. Edgecombe is ranked #3 within the $DRFT rankings—stepping in front of Ace Bailey and Kon Knueppel. While he is the highest ranked he has been this cycle, there are still some doubts as to how he compares to his high-end peers. Knueppel—who started this cycle at the sixth-ranked prospect—is being discussed as someone who could be taken with the #3 pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. Ace Bailey has been considered the third-best prospect throughout the majority of this process.

So, what do we do with V.J.? What do we do with a player who is an undersized off-ball player—who is more known as an athletic defender who is point-guard sized, but might not be the lead handler? That is really the question that scouts and executives are going to wrestle with as the 2025 NBA Draft approaches.

---

The Crunch

We’ll go ahead and establish Edgecombe’s analytical baseline. This will allow us to compare him to other players within his class, as well as current NBA players that he compares to.

V.J.’s baseline:

---

Minutes Percentage - 76.2

BPM - 10.0

Offensive Rating - 115.8

Usage Percentage - 24.4

Effective Field Goal Percentage - 50.7

True Shooting Percentage - 55.4

Offensive Rebounding Percentage - 7.1

Defensive Rebounding Percentage - 13.6

Assist Percentage - 19.0

Turnover Percentage - 15.0

Assist : Turnover- 1.7

Block Percentage - 2.3

Steals Percentage - 3.8

Free Throw Rate - 37.7

Dunks - 1/1 (100.0%)

Two Point Percentage - 91.7 (33/36)

Three Point Percentage - 33.6 (50/149)

---

Despite Baylor posting a record of just 20-15, V.J. was able to put up a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 10.0! That tied for 16th among all college players. That was also while being tied at 404th among all players in Usage Percentage, while having a minutes percentage of at least 40. Another way to say this could be: V.J. was super productive while not being a monster on-ball player. Getting the most proverbial bang for his buck is one of Edgecombe’s superpowers within his class.

One area where Edgecombe stands out as a one-and-done prospect is how much he does in the “dirty” areas of the game: rebounds, defense, and playing physically. One query you can use to exemplify this is the following:

• Offensive Rebounding Percentage - At least 7

• Defensive Rebounding Percentage - At least 12

• Block Percentage - At least 2

• Steals Percentage - At least 3

• Free Throw Rate - At least 35

• Minutes Percentage - At least 70

The graphic above shows only five players who were able to do what we saw from V.J. this season. There are a few things to point out from this collection of players. 1) V.J is the smallest player on this list. 2) He is the only freshman on this list. 3) He has the second-highest 3PT% on the most volume. So, even among this list of players who are hustle personified, V.J.’s skill and poise are the best among these names.

Running this same query among Bart Torvik’s entire database, you’ll come across about 80ish names—with some players who have posted these numbers multiple seasons. For the sake of your scrolling, I did not want to show the entire list, but some notable names that have done the same thing include:

• Victor Oladipo (a player Edgecombe is compared to often)

• Draymond Green

• John Konchar

• Ben Simmons

• Evan Turner

• DeMarre Carroll

• Jake LaRavia

• Jae Crowder

• Kyle Anderson

There are a few other interesting names that have had solid, interesting NBA careers, but that’s something you can look up after this piece if you want to geek out. Something that stands out with V.J. is that—even in this deeper list—he has the highest three-pointers per 100 possessions number among the names.

Edgecombe’s profile is very solid on paper, but what does the film say? You know that’s where we are going next!

---

The Dive

In his one college season, V.J. ranked in the 67th percentile in scoring 0.970 points per possession on 508 offensive possessions, per Synergy. This is graded out at “Very Good.” When breaking that down even further, he ranks in the 65th percentile in transition, and in the 59th percentile in the halfcourt. What makes V.J.’s scout so interesting is that he shines brightly in supporting play types, but how he has performed in those “lead guy” play types hasn’t been as great.

Off Ball Support (The Good)

Lob Finishing

Even when playing away from the ball, V.J.’s athleticism can be a threat. In this clip, we get to see our guy (#7 in gray) matched up against Cooper Flagg (#2 in white) and a strong Duke team. Baylor gets the Duke defense in the spin cycle with a series of handoffs before Edgecombe gets the ball on the right wing. V.J. brings the ball up to the top of the key.

He continues to hand the ball off to his teammate, Robert Wright III (#1 in gray), and ends up where he started on the left side of the floor. Cooper—who is largely considered one of the best defensive prospects in recent memory—gets matched up against our guy. Flagg is face-guarding Edgecombe, which signals a healthy respect for his abilities. V.J.’s teammate, Norchad Omier (#15 in gray), initially sets a screen on Flagg, which looks like a down screen for V.J. to come up for a three. Our guy positions himself to look like he will come up to meet the ball. As he is doing that, Omier repositions himself into a back screen. This allows our guy to make a back cut for a lob.

Cooper is left behind on this play, but Edgecombe still has some work to do to finish the play. While V.J. is gunning to the rim, Patrick Ngongba (#21 in white) sees his teammate getting screened and realizes he has to contest the rim. Ngongba is listed at 6’11”, but a well-placed pass from Wright III leaves the ball hanging to where only V.J. can get it. Our guy high-points the ball and converts the two-handed oop with ease.

It’s worth noting that V.J. converted 33 of his 37 dunk attempts this season—and converted 9-of-11 of his dunks in the halfcourt.

Similar to what we saw from the Thompson twins in OTE, Edgecombe’s athleticism can be a huge factor within his development as he transitions to the league. While V.J. showed the ability to “athlete” his way to points, there is some budding shot making that could be the biggest difference maker to his long-term progress.

Shooting Off Screens

Here, we have an opportunity to see how V.J. can support his team via his relocation. Wright III starts off with the ball to start, with our guy on the left wing. As the ball is whipped around, it eventually finds its way back to Wright III on a DHO. V.J. slinks his way down to the left corner—keeping the defense spread out.

As Rob brings the ball to the top of the key, V.J. has two screens set for him along the baseline. As he comes off the baseline screens, our guy gets the ball on the right wing and gets off a tough three—which he drills. In plays where Edgecombe scored off of screens, he ranked in the 93rd percentile, per Synergy. These plays were, however, only about 6% of all of our guy’s offensive possessions.

This sort of off-ball movement into a difficult three-pointer is quite advanced for such a young player who is often thought of as an athlete. NBA teams could look to make this a larger part of his game.

Spot-Up Shooting

This is an example of how Edgecombe can be reliable in a role away from other ball handlers in the NBA. We’re going to start with the ball finding V.J.’s hands in the right corner. He works his way up the perimeter and swings the ball to Jalen Celestine (#32 in green). Celestine swings the ball to Omier, who pumps, drives, engages the defense, and kicks the ball out to Edgecombe on the right wing.

Now, Omier is not a ball handler. However, in this play, he does handle the ball and engages multiple BYU defenders. Oh! Edgecombe catches Norchad’s pass in rhythm and hits the deep ball.

V.J. didn’t have the most pristine three-point percentage, but he did connect on 46.7% of his 45 open catch-and-shoot threes. He has work to do in terms of shooting on the ball (more on that later), but hitting open shots gives V.J. a nice foothold on the offensive side of the floor.

More Spot-Up—with a Notable Concern

Lastly, I want to point to this play for V.J.—not just because he connects from deep here, but because there is a little bit of concern in another area of his game.

This play kicks off with Rob Wright III handing the ball off to our guy on the left wing. Edgecombe brings the ball up to the top of the key and gets into his two-man game with Norchad. After two screen attempts, V.J. executes a beautiful spin to attack the right side of the defense.

Edgecombe stops on a dime off the bounce and looks to swing the ball back to Wright III. I want to pause here; this moment in time where V.J. is creating off the drive is important.

V.J. gets to a point where he knows he needs to move the ball. There isn’t a ton of pressure for a ball-handler to swing the ball to the correct spot—especially against Houston. Our guy rushes to swing the ball back to Rob, but delivers the ball almost at his teammate’s shoelaces. There is no turnover, but there is a delay in the continued movement of the ball. No one on the left side of the court is afforded the opportunity to shoot because V.J.’s pass gives Houston’s defense time to recover.

Our guy is still able to save the play, but it takes a beautiful baseline pass from Celestine to the corner, and a quick “next pass”, for V.J. to hit another open catch-and-shoot three pointer.

---

Off Ball Support (The Concerning)

Contested Three

We’ll see a good example here as to why there is a 17% swing in Edgecombe’s three-point efficiency, depending on whether he is open or contested. This is an important aspect to dive into, as V.J.’s draft stock could result in him going to a team that doesn’t have the best floor spacing or ball movement.

Taking a look at Baylor vs. Duke again, this clip is going to start with Omier grabbing an offensive rebound. Omier kicks the ball to Rob Wright III, who then swings the ball to our guy on the left wing.

This is where it gets interesting. Edgecombe catches the ball and looks to get into his shot. The first thing that stands out is that V.J. dips the ball. This allows Kon Knueppel (#7 in white) time to close out. Our guy steps into his shot, but his shooting base looks more narrow than what we have seen in this catch-and-shoot looks. The upper portion of his shooting mechanics looks replicable from everything else that we’ve seen, but the slower load time and, perhaps, rushed footwork result in the shot missing off the back iron.

Keep in mind that Kon is very much a hustle defender, but he isn’t necessarily the longest defender. Knueppel has a wingspan that is barely over +1 inch. If V.J. is going to keep this approach in his guarded shooting looks, there is a decent likelihood that his shot will continue to be altered…or blocked.

---

On-Ball Game (The Good)

Driving Finish

This is the aspect of Edgecombe’s game that really impacts his highest of upsides: his ability to create with the ball in his hands. We’re starting again with some more Baylor vs. Duke film to kick off his on-ball game. Our guy has the ball just inside the logo while being guarded by Tyrese Proctor. Celestine slips the ghost screen to V.J.’s left, allowing him to attack the left side of the floor. Because Celestine can shoot, Khaman Maluach (#9 in white) can only halfway help off his man to assist Tyrese Proctor (#5 in white) in defending V.J.

Even though Proctor is a bigger college guard, V.J. is able to establish position inside his defensive stance. V.J.’s strength allows him to keep Tyrese on his heels. Even when Proctor is able to, somewhat, challenge the drive, Edgecombe spins toward the lane, strides out his steps, extends, and finishes the layup. V.J.’s speed and strength allow him to aggressively attack driving lanes—and even allow him to maintain balance when he needs to contort or adjust his finishing angles.

Drive and Kick

Not only did Edgecombe show that he can do some work for himself as a ball handler, but he can create for others, too. In this clip against Kansas State, we start off with V.J. operating with the ball in his hands. Omier sets a simple ball screen, which allows our guy to dribble off to the right wing. V.J. looks to take his man off the dribble, and is able to drive toward the lane.

There is awesome recognition of the defense’s spacing here. As Edgecombe attacks to his left and toward the lane, help has to come from the second side of the floor. This causes Celestine’s man to step away from him and dig for the ball. This gives our guy a passing window to kick the ball out to Celestine for an open three.

---

On-Ball Game (The Concerning)

Finishing Inefficiency

One of the more concerning metrics for V.J. is his at-rim finishing. Per Synergy, he ranked in the 36th percentile in at-rim finishing and in the 56th percentile in at-rim frequency. One interesting aspect within this area of his game is that Edgecombe shot only 44.6% on his halfcourt layups. His ability to leap and convert his dunks bolsters his at-rim numbers, but he ranks just in the 15th percentile in non-dunk shot attempts at the rim.

This clip against Colorado illustrates why that is the case. V.J. starts this play with the ball just inside halfcourt. Norchad Omier comes up to screen for our guy to his left, but Edgecombe rejects the screen and elects to drive to the rim. V.J.’s man, Sebastian Rancik (#7 in white), defends him on an island as he attacks the paint. Rancik does a good job of closing off the driving lane to the right, which causes Edgecombe to Euro-step to his left. Because Edgecombe struggles with his left, he rises straight up to float the ball over the top of his man. Rancik contests the shot at its peak, which forces our guy to miss short.

Dribble Jumper Inefficiency

We’ve discussed how Edgecombe has struggled to shoot from deep efficiently, despite having impressive numbers on open catch-and-shoot looks. A major factor in those numbers is how he struggled to shoot off the bounce.

Taking a look at this clip against Arizona, we see Edgecombe come off a screen from Omier to get the ball on the right wing from Wright III. Once he gets the ball, Omier sets a screen to Edgecombe’s left. The screen from Norchad gives our guy a ton of space to either drive or—to do what he does—pull up from deep. It’s pretty obvious to see how uncomfortable V.J. is getting into his shot off the bounce. Generally speaking, it is more difficult to shoot in this manner versus a pass, but if V.J. is going to be a lead guy, he will have to hit shots like this. Otherwise, the defense will spam under screens exclusively in the NBA.

On dribble jumper threes, Edgecombe shot just 6-of-30 on the season; 20% from a guard on shots like these will really limit his utility within NBA offenses.

Creation Off the Bounce Consistency

We touched on the concerns that can exist with Edgecombe’s passing accuracy at times, but that was during the off-ball supporting role. In this clip against Cincinnati, we see how tough it can be for our guy when creating off the bounce.

As V.J. crosses halfcourt, he is immediately picked up. The defense heavily defends our guy’s left side. This is because Edgecombe drives left over 63% of the time. V.J. is still able to attack to his left, and run the two-man game with Langston Love. V.J. drives right into a wall of tough defenders. All of his driving lanes are shut off, so V.J. tries to squeeze in a wrap-around pass to Omier in the restricted area. The placement of the pass is…subpar, to put it politely, and our guy turns the ball over.

This is where skepticism of V.J. becoming a dynamic creator begins to rise. He is clearly athletic and talented enough to do some simple drive-and-kicks (as we saw earlier), but anything requiring dynamic craft or the ability to maintain his dribble under significant pressure—the hope begins to fade a bit.

When looking at pick-and-roll playmaking, Edgecombe has a turnover percentage of 20.2% on over 105 possessions. If you compare that number to some lead handlers like Jeremiah Fears (22.0%), Egor Demin (26.0%), and Kasparas Jakucionis (29.1%), you could maybe take some heart in Edgecombe’s numbers. There are a couple of things to consider if you pull on that string:

• One, those players had a higher usage rate and role for their respective teams

• If you compare V.J. to other, off-ball guards like Tre Johnson (17.6%), Kon Knueppel (19.7%), Nique Clifford (17.3%), and Jase Richardson (4.9%), he turns the ball over the most.

---

Curtains

How do we feel after digesting this? To be honest, I came away from another dedicated dive on V.J. a little underwhelmed. Now, hang on a second. I did not say I’m out on Edgecombe holistically, but I am slightly more concerned as to V.J.’s high-end upside. Yes, he has ridiculous athleticism. Yes, he is a great positional rebounder. Yes, he is a very good defensive prospect. However, I don’t know if we’re going to see a Thompson twin outcome for V.J.

While he did measure out to be 6’4” without shoes, he does not have the same sort of height and length as Amen and Ausar coming into the NBA. That’s a HUGE part of their impact now, and is, partially, what made them special as prospects. They were also more advanced with the ball in their hands than Edgecombe. Edgecombe is very straight-line centric as a driver, though he does have a move or two he can go to.

So, how much cutting can he do in the world’s greatest basketball league? Even if V.J. improves as a shooter, teams will have to be confident that his frequency of attempts will be worth the defense’s commitment to the shot—particularly when/if he is in the playoffs. Even if V.J. improves as a finisher, he’ll have to improve his shot to force teams to have different screen coverages against him. Even if V.J. does round out as a shooter and finisher with the ball, he’ll need to improve his playmaking chops beyond the simple “next pass”, or kickout, to achieve what teams normally look for in a potential Top 3 pick. This is where the concerns regarding his ceiling lie.

But let’s say he’s just an okay, secondary or tertiary handler and a decent shooter. V.J. still offers top-shelf athleticism, tremendous effort on the glass and boards, and high character; that being his floor is what makes him appealing. Some of the names that he compared to in terms of impact earlier in this piece—DeMarre Carroll, Jake LaRavia, Jae Crowder, and Kyle Anderson—have played pivotal roles on their teams and have been desirable players. That gives V.J. a certain amount of safety, with the potential that some of his concerns will take positive steps in the right direction.

V.J. will likely be a Top 5 pick because of that potential/floor combination, but should probably go toward the back part of that range within the 2025 NBA Draft.

---

Follow me on Twitter: StephenGHoops

Catch me on BlueSky: StephenGHoops

Catch the Draft Sickos show LIVE on the No Ceilings NBA channel: