Portland Trail Blazers Lottery Preview

The No Ceilings crew begins their preview series of all of the teams drafting in the lottery, starting with the Portland Trail Blazers.

Rucker: It’s always an exciting time to talk about what could happen when projecting the early portion of the NBA Draft. Personally, though, I love it when we can start to pivot and focus on specific teams. With a year that features so much uncertainty, especially in the lottery, we’re going to need to be open-minded with some of the names that can come into the picture for each team.

Portland has my attention as one of the most exciting teams to watch in the lottery. Although the Trail Blazers are picking 14th in a pick from the Golden State Warriors, they are also in a fascinating spot with the seventh pick as well. Portland is trending in the right direction. They’ve added some nice pieces over the year and have a roster that features a number of youthful pieces that could be exciting if they keep trending up with their development.

Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons have shown to be exciting young talents. You add in the young depth pieces and veterans who can pack a punch, and Portland can really take a big step forward if they can find some good pieces with the lottery.

The big storyline moving forward is rookie guard Scoot Henderson. After being selected third overall, Henderson came in with lofty expectations. Henderson finished the year strong despite his slow start, which should be an exciting development for Trail Blazers fans. If Henderson can take the next step and Portland can hit on these picks, the trajectory of this franchise is going to point upward in a hurry.

Nick, call me crazy…but I think Portland isn’t as far off from this rebuild cooking as some might believe. They need things to go right, but this can be an organization that’s coming together sooner rather than later. Where are you at with this team? Do you think this is the type of draft where Portland could still “swing” a bit? Or do you think they are going to be intrigued with finding some specific pieces that can try to put the puzzle pieces together?

Nick: It’s a tricky situation to try to puzzle out, especially because I agree with you that this team is further ahead in their rebuild than it might seem on paper. Sure, this team did finish the season with the worst record in the Western Conference, which is…obviously not great. However, I think that they have some key pieces around who can right the ship pretty quickly—and most of them missed a lot of time last season.

Beyond the Scoot situation, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Shaedon Sharpe missed significant time with injury this past season, as did Malcolm Brogdon. Robert Williams III missed all but six games as well, but it’s sadly getting more and more difficult to buy into him staying healthy; if he does, though, the Blazers have a pretty solid rotational mix when you throw Deandre Ayton and rookie standout Toumani Camara in there.

With all of that in mind, I think that Portland is in a position where they can and should look at upside swings with one of their two picks—but not both. If I were drafting for Portland, I would try to get a solid wing/forward player whose floor I’m comfortable with at #7. One of the three of Stephon Castle, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dalton Knecht will almost certainly be there for them with that pick.

I would take a swing for them with the 14th pick though, pretty much regardless of position—Portland has theoretical depth across the board, but they could probably find a taker for Jerami Grant and certainly would have plenty of bidders if they wanted to shop any of their three young guards in Simons, Sharpe, and Henderson. Cody Williams would be a great pickup for them if he fell to #14, and could certainly be in contention for them at #7 as well. Tidjane Salaun could make sense for them as a home run swing if he falls there, and I really like the concept of Kyshawn George as a complementary offensive piece/gap filler early on who could grow into something more than that with time.

What about you, Rucker? Do you think that Portland needs to try to get two solid players in the building and worry about the rest later, or do you think they’re primed for a couple of home run swings?

Rucker: I think all of the options you listed are going to be in the conversation for sure. Portland has become one of my favorite teams to evaluate when it comes to potential direction in the lottery. Despite this being perceived as a “weaker” draft, I believe the Blazers could be in a perfect spot to take advantage of the value that should present itself in this class.

Plenty are expecting Portland to potentially shop some of their veterans for value. I’m not sold on that yet. I think the organization is still happy with the pieces they have. The organization would most likely want to see a healthy year of Scoot, Simons, and Sharpe before any shifts in direction. Could I see them look to sell high on some veterans? Absolutely.

I think when you’re a team finding yourself with two picks in the lottery, the mindset of diving into each side of the “potential vs value” is a smart bet. What I mean by that is you can see yourself swinging for upside with one selection before taking a potentially “safer” selection to pair with them—someone who might offer a higher floor compared to a higher ceiling.

Could Portland say screw it and just double down on swinging for the fences? Sure. Could they also look at this class and attack the mentality of taking higher-floor talents? Absolutely.

Dalton Knecht continues to be a name that seems easy to pencil in for a number of different teams. For Portland, the fit would make a lot of sense. This roster has a bundle of youthful toys who will be names to watch out for when it comes to developmental pieces. Toumani Camara, Kris Murray, Jabari Walker, and Rayan Rupert, to mention a few, are all players who could be poised for another step forward next year. Adding Knecht to the mix would bring a different type of juice on the offensive side of the ball.

I think you can also look at some other names in terms of higher-floor pieces. Tristan da Silva could come into the conversation at 14. He’s a versatile piece who can space the floor from outside. There’s also a part of this draft in which you start to wonder if BPA regardless of position, could come into the picture.

Sure, the Blazers have a lot of depth in their backcourt. But if the board plays out a certain way, the Blazers are looking at some talented guards on the board…could they simply jump at the value and figure it out later?

Nick, is there a world in which some other names come into the picture that we aren’t “thinking” about? Is it nuts to think that at some point, Portland could just take BPA regardless of position?

Nick: I don’t think it’s crazy at all to assume that Portland could just opt for their best player available, especially at #14. Even at #7, I think they’d at least have to have a conversation if Nikola Topic or Reed Sheppard falls there. Sheppard, in particular, stands out to me as someone who can make life easier for the rest of the guard rotation by just shooting the cover off the ball for the team that ranked 30th in the league in 3P% last season and 28th in three-point makes.

Even outside of those two specific examples, though, Portland is in a rare position as a team that doesn’t have a glaring positional need. Sure, there are some players who would make more sense than others, but they have the depth to be able to take a swing on whoever they think provides the best long-term value for the team. If someone in the consensus Top 5 falls into Portland’s lap at #7, I think their best move might be to pounce on that guy and take a high-floor, gap-filling type of player with their second lottery pick.

I agree that da Silva makes sense for them as a high-floor guy at #14, especially if they take more of a swing at #7. We haven’t mentioned the G League Ignite guys yet, either, in terms of guys we might not be thinking about. I’m not as high on Matas Buzelis or Ron Holland as some people, so I’d probably look elsewhere; of those two, though, Buzelis stands out to me as someone who Portland might be willing to bet on as a future tentpole of their offense while providing size and hustle defensively.

It’s weird to say that a team that struggled so much last season is in a pretty good spot, but the more we talk it out, the easier it becomes for me to envision a bright future for this team. They’re a couple of years away, for sure, but they’re also in prime position to pick up a couple of pieces to kick their rebuild into a higher gear. Their top rotation guys and young pieces are spread out enough in terms of skill set and the positional spectrum that it’s easy to see a lot of players in this draft finding a home in Portland.

Rucker: I think you’re spot on. Many will look at this and say, “great, you rattled off about 10+ players when it comes to two potential picks.” But I think that’s the point exactly for a team like Portland in THIS type of draft. You’ve got the potential to go in so many different directions with your two selections. Obviously it would have been awesome for the Trail Blazers to have their pick jumping up into one of the first selections on lottery night. But I think teams picking later could see value fall down the board into their laps. For a team like Portland with two selections in the lottery, this is the year to really help your roster for the future.

It doesn’t have to be the biggest swing, but if you can add some strategic pieces in this one, you can really have something cooking. Time will tell the vision the Blazers have—or if they could even surprise some and try to move up for a player like Donovan Clingan. It’s an exciting time for Blazers fans, and there’s a lot of intrigue with this team especially when it comes to this draft class.