Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson is Taking Charge

Our own Nathan Grubel is back to take a look into Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson's hot stretch and how much his positive play can project forward beyond this season.

There’s been no better young NBA player story over the last week than Scoot Henderson.

What he’s done for the Portland Trail Blazers in terms of elevating the offense’s ceiling while also contributing defensively is exactly what the franchise envisioned when drafting him third overall in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Fortunately for both the Blazers and Scoot, this five-game stretch is the best of his young career and a far cry from where he started it.

Already with massive expectations because of how well he was able to perform for the G League Ignite over two seasons, Henderson faced an uphill battle coming into the league. Getting adjusted to the life of a professional basketball player is one thing, but having to commandeer the point guard position and battle with veterans at similar positions for minutes wasn’t what Scoot likely had in mind before he was drafted.

Still, that’s the NBA. No situation is perfect. No team construct is perfect. And everyone’s development is far from linear. There are ups and downs for every rookie, sophomore, and even junior player as they find their way as professionals. On top of that is the fact that Henderson is operating as the team’s primary ball handler and orchestrating the offense and attempting to execute the coach’s vision while also having to learn what levers to push and pull. That’s all easier said than done.

Where Henderson didn’t find favor from the general public is that patience doesn’t always exist in professional sports, be it from the fanbase or the front office.

Jobs are on the line. Basketball, as with any other major league sport, is a cutthroat business. Players get moved after years of exemplary service, or after not having proven enough to satisfy the requirements of a rotational role. Sometimes it happens quite unexpectedly, but so is business—and, quite frankly, life.

The good news for Henderson is that lottery picks, deservingly so, get the benefit of the doubt more often than not, and therefore a higher degree of patience from an organization and coaching staff.

And to Portland’s credit, a lot of solid pieces have been put around the likes of Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. There are quality veterans like Deni Avdija, Anfernee Simons, and Jerami Grant. Deandre Ayton still looks like an athletic dynamo at the center position when fully engaged on both ends. Toumani Camara was arguably the steal of the second round of last year’s draft, already emerging as a premier wing defender in the NBA. And to add to the talent base, the Blazers selected Donovan Clingan in the 2024 draft to supplement their frontcourt.

Some will argue that Portland still needs to find more shooting to surround their young playmakers, and there are surely moves to be made that will help the team. But as this roster stands, there’s enough talent to be competitive so long as both Henderson and Sharpe are healthy and playing up to their potential.

And that’s been the million dollar question, and why this stretch of basketball has been so important to see from Henderson. Through his rookie season and a chunk of this current campaign, Henderson has rated by many advanced metrics as a below-average guard in terms of impact on both ends of the floor. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a former lottery pick.

What he’s done over his last five games, however, has been anything BUT below average. I’ll let some numbers speak for themselves:

Evaluating his numbers against some pretty decent competition of late (the Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls, and Miami Heat all average out to a .497 winning percentage), Henderson could very well be hitting his stride as an NBA guard.

To my eye, there have been a few qualities that have stood out about his efforts and overall performance.

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Shooting

For starters, Henderson’s confidence as a shooter—not just a scorer—is as apparent on film as in his three-point percentage. I made a similar observation earlier this year about Jaden Ivey and the leap he was making pre-injury as a catch-and-shoot player. The way he was firing shots at will without having to think about it led to more makes than he had seen up to that point in his NBA career, and that same truth applies to this current offensive stretch for Henderson.

Now, I don’t necessarily hold it against Scoot for not being the best off-ball offensive player out of the gate in the league. Think about how often Henderson has been the best guard on the floor during his pre-NBA career, and therefore how much he’s had the ball in his hands to either go get a bucket or make a play for someone else. Success at doing anything comes from repeated practice and confidence.

If Henderson hasn’t played significant enough minutes alongside someone else capable of playing a higher usage role to spread his catch-and-shoot wings, why should anyone have expected him to come out of the gate setting the nets on fire from deep?

Per the chart above (courtesy of Synergy Sports) when looking at Henderson’s catch-and-shoot game from his time with Ignite and the Blazers, it’s fascinating to notice the correlation between his shot diet and efficiency. With more rhythm and comfort in this type of role, Henderson’s shooting efficiency has steadily increased through his early career. And in taking the highest percentage of threes during this five game hot streak, he’s made the most of his easier perimeter looks as opposed to doing everything off the bounce.

Even in his looks off the dribble, Henderson is far quicker to pull the trigger rather than hesitate and either force a bad look or an errant pass leading to a turnover.

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Decision Making

Henderson’s assist-to-turnover splits continue to trend in the right direction.

In watching through Henderson’s turnovers over his last five games, fewer and fewer of his possessions ended in live-ball turnovers. While we’d all love to live in a world where players don’t commit ANY turnovers, the benefit of those that end with the ball going out of bounds is that they aren’t directly linked to direct points through transition offense off those mistakes.

This correlates hand-in-hand with a team running more efficiently, because less transition play means more set defense and a higher chance to end opposing possessions without scores. Any high-usage ball-handler strives to set their team up for success, and this part of the game is as—if not more—important than just putting the ball in the basket.

Assists are sometimes a tricky stat to track, because as many have noted before at No Ceilings, they require a MAKE to actually pop up in the box score. Considering the Trail Blazers have ranked at or near the bottom of the league the last two seasons in both attempts and makes from three-point range as well as at the rim, it’s easy to see how Henderson could’ve made some great kick-out or dump-off passes and not gotten the credit because the other player didn’t actually convert the shot.

But the way Henderson has commanded the offense with more aggression, purpose, and anticipation, he’s created high-percentage shots for others within the flow of the game and they’ve benefitted from his enhanced vision. Better pass timing and placement, along with fewer live-ball turnovers, have put Portland in a much better place to succeed offensively over this stretch. Henderson has averaged a 1.69 assist-to-turnover mark over his first two seasons, but in these five games, that number jumps to 2.42.

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Defense and “The Little Things”

Lastly, but certainly not least, Henderson has been doing the little things at an increased rate—particularly on defense.

What do I mean by the little things? Going after offensive rebounds, moving without the basketball, paying attention defensively both on and off the ball, and anticipating ball movement to play passing lanes and force turnovers. Henderson didn’t excel in these areas during his rookie season, but he has really started to buy in of late and it’s shown up on tape.

Any extra possessions Henderson can create only benefit the team’s transition offense. On top of that, the Trail Blazers have been at their best when sticking to a defensive identity built around getting easy looks on the break. Having a point guard that plays into that overall framework at the point of attack helps to set the tone for everyone around him.

There are still matchups that Henderson won’t win defensively because he’s not the tallest or strongest on the floor, but he has the quickness, length, and competitiveness to at least hold his own on that side of the ball. He may not be a 99th percentile league defender, but he should be in a better category than the 10th percentile.

With Henderson on the floor, the Blazers aren’t a major negative in terms of points per 100 possessions, having improved that mark by over five points per Cleaning the Glass. It’s not perfect, but absolutely trending in the right direction.

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Conclusion

Look. Henderson still has to prove that this stretch isn’t simply a mirage. But there’s a lot here that is sustainable in terms of effort, recognition, and ball control. The shooting splits surely will come down and fluctuate, but if the Blazers can get Henderson a better diet of catch-and-shoot looks as opposed to everything coming contested and in traffic, that should only affirm his confidence as a shot-maker and lead to better results over time.

Should these things hold true, then the last area I’d really like to see some improvement from Scoot in is his efficiency around the basket.

Per Synergy, Henderson has ranked in the 15th percentile or below during his first two NBA seasons on shots at the basket, and those rankings weren’t much better in the G League. Henderson has gotten better at changing gears and knowing when to pull up in the midrange for better looks, but his at-rim attempts have generally come from pre-meditated decisions that rely more on brute force and explosiveness than craft and timing.

Now, Henderson could get away with leveraging pure athletic talent and catching defenses off guard at lower levels of competition. Even in the G League, where there are less excellent rim-protecting centers, Henderson has a better chance to finish over defenders in traffic. But at the NBA level, those one-speed drives without a back-up plan can only go so far. Henderson still needs to pick and choose his battles a bit better, which should also come from an improved array of perimeter attempts both on and off the ball.

If defenses have to respect his jump shot, or the threat of someone else making shots off Henderson’s drive-and-kicks, then gravity will open up opportunities for Henderson to get the step on defenses and create in the paint. He has that burst to get the initial blow-by and get the paint touch, but it’s about knowing what decision to make in real time should defenders collapse or a big man come up to properly contest.

Before the 2023 NBA Draft, there were fewer media scouts who went on record as often as I did in favor of Scoot Henderson. And for a bit, things weren’t looking good for those like me who took strong stances in his favor as opposed to other prospects with better size like Brandon Miller or Amen Thompson. But it’s hard to watch Scoot over this last week and NOT come back to the promise he had as a top-shelf NBA guard who could change the complexion of a game and complement his teammates on both ends of the floor.

Henderson has a clear path forward to run Portland’s offense and be “a guy” for this organization moving forward even if he isn’t “THE guy” to lead the franchise to a title. That being said, sometimes it’s as difficult for a team to find even the second or third option on a championship contender.

When Scoot is at his best, he can compete with the other top guards in the league. It’s about finding that consistency and rounding out some of the edges moving forward to get him closer to realizing that potential.

Don’t give up on Scoot!

*All stats used are as of 1/22/2025 and do NOT include Portland’s game on 1/23. All stats are courtesy of Synergy Sports, Dunks and Threes, Basketball-Reference, and Cleaning the Glass*