Process Over Production: Why AJ Johnson Could be the Biggest Steal of the 2024 NBA Draft

AJ Johnson firmly falls into the potential bucket of the potential vs production debate, but his potential is eye popping.

Jan 26, 2024

American high schoolers don’t have a great track record of improving their draft stock by going to a professional league in their predraft season. Unfortunately, AJ Johnson looks like he could be the next prospect to join that club. Johnson was a Top 50 recruit coming out of high school and decommitted from Texas to join the Illawarra Hawks in the NBL. Johnson has experienced inconsistent minutes, a new role, underwhelming numbers, and the battle of one of the most physical leagues in the world. Despite all of that, I continue to be impressed with Johnson’s play and imagine that he’d easily be considered a first rounder, if not a lottery pick, if he instead decided to play for a college team.

Before we dive into the fun stuff, let’s just rip the Band-Aid off and go through the numbers. They’re bad. In fact, they’re pretty awful. For most, it’ll be enough of a turnoff, and I can understand that. At this point, I don’t really care about his numbers. Since Johnson needs to add substantial weight, he’s going to be a multiyear project anyway. What matters more to me is his process. We’ll get to that in a second.

Back to the numbers. Currently, Johnson is averaging 8.6 minutes, 3.3 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.6 turnovers, and 0.3 steals. Not great. Per Synergy, Johnson ranks in the 22nd percentile in pick-and-roll scoring, the 21st percentile in transition, and the 26th percentile spotting up. He also ranks in the 27th percentile on all jumpers (25.7%), 53rd percentile in shooting off the catch (33.3%), and the 14th percentile at the rim (47.4%). So far this season, Johnson has more games where he played under five minutes (five) than over 15 (three). None of these numbers come close to representing a first round pick.

What continues to captivate me with Johnson’s game, and why I continue to think he’s worthy of a first round pick, is his approach to the game. For starters, it would be incredibly easy for him to check out and go through the motions. This season surely isn’t what he expected, but he continues to play hard every night and do the little things that make the team better. Johnson has a long way to go, but his process, approach, and work ethic resemble those of guys who tend to make it. Then there’s also the raw talent that is just begging to be unleashed.

On-Ball Scoring

At 6’5”, Johnson will need to have a diverse scoring game to carve out a legitimate NBA role. I know the numbers suggest that that’s a long shot, but his flashes when he gets an opportunity are highly encouraging. Johnson has shown that he’s comfortable creating his shot on the perimeter and at the rim.

Johnson’s shot mechanics look really sound, so as he continues to get stronger, it would be surprising if the results don’t improve. Here, Johnson gets a handoff in the early offense on the wing. As he attacks middle, the defenders fail to communicate the switch and leave Johnson alone. Johnson eagerly takes the space they give him, steps back for the three, and drops a smooth pull-up three.

This time, the defense does a solid job of shutting down Illawarra’s action, so Johnson just goes into a quick handoff. Johnson gets the pitchback well behind the arc, but he doesn’t hesitate at all. Instead, he quickly gets his feet set, keeps his high release point, and drops in the three.

Aesthetically, Johnson’s mechanics have me sold that he’ll be a good shooter. His balance, release point, footwork, and consistent mechanics are all really encouraging. What makes Johnson’s scoring upside even more exciting, though, is his ability to get downhill. Johnson is a very good athlete who has a strong track record of attacking the rim.

With Jalen Green Elite 17U, 59.7% of Johnson’s shot attempts came at the rim where he shot 72.9%. This season, 45.2% of Johnson’s shots come at the rim where he’s shooting just 47.4%. A drop-off is to be expected, but this is pretty severe. Johnson clearly needs to improve in this area, but his inefficiency is solely due to him being well behind his competitors from a physical standpoint. Johnson is still figuring out how to consistently finish through contact. We constantly see skinny prospects avoid scoring at the rim. They are afraid of contact, don’t want to get hurt, and sometimes make their shots exponentially more difficult to avoid the contact. Johnson welcomes the contact.

Here, Johnson shows his courage as he attacks the rim and proves how he can win with simplicity. After a standard crossover at halfcourt, Johnson blows past and shrugs off his defender. Instead of hesitating or passing out of his drive, Johnson attacks the rotating defender. Johnson goes straight into the defender’s chest and still finishes through contact.

Having that type of mindset in a professional league while needing to add at least 15-20 pounds of muscle is rare. Once Johnson adds that necessary muscle, it would be surprising if his finishing numbers didn’t significantly improve—especially since he’s already showing intriguing craft with extension finishes and Euro-steps.

Here, Johnson once again effortlessly blows past his defender. As he attacks the lane, the help defender is already waiting for him. Johnson can see that the help defender is pointing to the corner, so Johnson knows that a kickout would likely get intercepted. Instead, Johnson shows off his agility by planting his left foot on the block, absorbing the contact on his hip, landing in the middle of the restricted arc, and extending with his right hand for the reverse finish.

This time, Johnson gets a screen to aid his attack. As the screen comes, Johnson capitalizes on the roadblock that the tangled feet create. It is now a race to who can get to the opposite elbow first between Johnson and his defender. Johnson wins. Johnson’s teammate does his best to create a pseudo-screen via post-up, but the defender does a good job fighting through. Unfortunately for him, Johnson’s speed is too much. Johnson elevates at a difficult angle in traffic, extends the ball in his right hand to a place the defender can’t get to, and finishes through the contact on his left shoulder.

One of the biggest holes in Johnson’s scoring game right now is a floater. He’s shooting only 18.2% on 11 attempts this year and only took six attempts in EYBL. His touch is a bit suspect as he tends to put a bit too much juice on them.

Here, Johnson gets the floater to fall, but it was the processing that was most impressive. As Johnson comes off the double drag, he uses a slight hesitation. This move sends the drop defender back to the roller and gives Johnson more space. Quickly glancing over his shoulder, Johnson sees that his primary defender is still out of the play. He takes an extra dribble, perfectly utilizes the space he’s created, and drops in the floater.

Off-Ball Scoring

The threshold for on-ball creators in the NBA is extraordinarily high, so the vast majority of players have to be effective in an off-ball role. Between his high school minutes and his role with Illawarra, Johnson will have a nice blend of experiencing both worlds. Proving to be a capable off-ball shooter and cutter will only create more avenues to minutes for Johnson.

As we covered earlier, Johnson has been much more successful shooting off the catch than off the dribble so far, 33.3% vs. 21.7%, respectively. He doesn’t run off screens when shooting off the catch, but he could grow into a reliable spot-up option. Here, Johnson wisely flares out to the corner in transition and lets the three fly once the defender doesn’t close out. There is a bit of a knee buckle, but it isn’t anything that is uncommon with young players. The mechanics are sound yet again, and it’s an easy three points.

Being a reliable off-ball shooter is crucial, but adding in an adept cutting game can make a ton of difference. Here, Illawarra runs a high pick-and-roll while Johnson is in the left corner. Since the defense blitzes this, a quick pass to the roller will create a 4v3 advantage for the offense. As the pass gets made, Johnson’s defender has to step to the ball while the second help defender needs to rotate to Johnson. Since he’s ball-watching and assuming Johnson is just spotting up, the second help defender drifts to the corner. Johnson wisely cuts baseline into the open space. Johnson gets the bounce pass with a clear runway, elevates over the rotating defender, and gets the foul plus the dunk.

Again, Johnson shows impressive situational awareness as he punishes his defender for ball-watching. As his teammate struggles to create a shot in the post, Johnson waits for his defender to turn his head. The second that he does, Johnson cuts baseline and is rewarded with a perfect pass that he drops in on the reverse.

Playmaking

Johnson rarely passes teammates open, and if he’s being relied on as a primary creator, the offense is likely to stall out. It’s a role that he and a lot of other young prospects aren’t quite ready for. Like most of his intrigue, though, there are flashes that are oozing with flair and competency.

Making the simple pass out of the pick-and-roll is crucial. Here, Johnson sees that his defender is starting to cheat by going over the screen early, so he quickly loses him with a swift crossover. Johnson sees that his teammate is in an open pocket and delivers an on-target pocket pass. His teammate couldn’t finish the play, but the process and decision were correct.

Johnson made the right read there, but it reeked of inexperience. By delivering the ball as quickly as he did, Johnson allowed his teammate’s defender to recover and block the shot. If he would’ve attacked the drop defender with another dribble or used a hesitation move, he could’ve improved the spacing for his teammate. Johnson didn’t do anything overtly wrong, but it is that slight bit of difference we see between consistent NBA on-ball creators and those who don’t have the experience. The good news, though, is that it is something that can improve significantly in time.

This time, Johnson shows his sense of flair and impressive vision. As he comes off the screen, Johnson’s hesitation move gets the defender to pause before Johnson leaves him in the dust. As Johnson attacks downhill, he attracts the attention of all five defenders. Out of the corner of his eye, Johnson sees his teammate cutting and rewards him with a no-look pass that leads to a foul.

Like his scoring, Johnson is also showing an ability to create for others while playing off-ball. Here, Johnson’s shot fake gets the defender to closeout hard, which allows Johnson to attack against the defender’s momentum. As he gets to the free throw line, Johnson snakes back to the middle to draw both help defenders with him. This move creates a slightly bigger window as he delivers another no-look dump-off for the dunk.

Defense

Coming into this season, I expected Johnson to be a disaster on defense. Defending in a professional league is hard enough on its own. When you factor in a significant lack of comparative strength, it becomes infinitely more difficult. To my pleasant surprise, Johnson’s defense has been really encouraging.

Johnson doesn’t have outstanding defensive playmaking numbers, but it is the one area of his game where his approach and competitiveness really shines. Johnson has some lapses, but they are very rare and fade by the game. He works hard to fight through screens, communicates away from the ball, makes timely rotations, and is conscious of his positioning away from the ball. Even though the below clip ends up in a make, Johnson’s off-ball communication, positioning, footwork, closeout, and rotations are exactly what you want to see from a young guard.

When I think about what Johnson will look like a few years from now once he adds the necessary strength, it’s really difficult to imagine him as anything other than at least a solid defender, especially on the ball. Johnson’s footwork is really impressive as he has the footspeed to cut off drives consistently, but he does it by rarely crossing his feet to ensure he doesn’t sacrifice his balance. When cutting off drives, Johnson isn’t afraid of a bit of contact and will gladly take a should to his chest. With his size and athleticism, Johnson could grow into a really effective perimeter defender.

I firmly believe that AJ Johnson could be one of the biggest steals from the 2024 NBA Draft a few years from now. The problem is that he will need some time. Everyone wants results immediately, and the takes about him in year one will inevitably be brutal. However, if a smart team is willing to be patient with him like the Portland Trail Blazers were with Anfernee Simons, they could have a star waiting in the wings. By taking Johnson in the late first round, a team will have an additional year of control on his contract. Even though that money is guaranteed, it is a lot easier for that team to focus solely on development for that first year and also experience the benefits as he comes into his own as a player. There aren’t many players in this draft that have the upside that AJ Johnson has. As he gets more experience and stronger, he has the tools to grow into an exceptionally versatile NBA guard.

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